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The october surprise...

post #1 of 38
Thread Starter 
Some stuff that you guys might want to check out...

Cybercast News Service Obtains Documents Proving Iraq Had WMD, Terror Ties...story | audio
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post #2 of 38
Quote:
The problem with Liberals is that they think that optimism is a disease...

The problem with Conservatives is that they think that optimism is a policy.
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Declaring us the nicest of the damned -- They Might Be Giants          See the stars at skyviewcafe.com
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We were once so close to heaven
Peter came out and gave us medals
Declaring us the nicest of the damned -- They Might Be Giants          See the stars at skyviewcafe.com
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post #3 of 38
Funny, CNN has footage today of Rumsfeld at a Pentagon press briefing this morning explicitly admitting he knew of "no hard evidence" tying SH to either.

And if you think a no-name news organization with "Fact-o-Rama!" links in their masthead deserves to be taken without several mines of salt as a *cough* credible source *cough*, you show the limits of 14 year old reasoning.

Looks like the "news service" is in fact an arm of a right wing 501.

Funny how they spend a lot of time criticizing CBS over spotty documents and don't see the irony of 'serendipitously discovering' Iraqi Intelligence documents confiscated by US officials that magically prove everything certain US officials have been unable to prove with any other evidence.

Ten bucks says these are as transparently obvious as bad forgeries as the Niger 'documents'.
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"I do not fear computers. I fear the lack of them" -Isaac Asimov
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post #4 of 38
This may be true, but Mylroie is a total and complete wacko and Bruce Tefft is a highly, highly partisan former CIA officer who is clearly very obsessed with collecting information to verify his predetermined beliefs, as anyone on the osint listserv knows well.
post #5 of 38
Thread Starter 
I didn't say i believed it either...

-Neø
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Crunch for the Cure!
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God created Adam and Eve, He didnt create Adam and Steve
-Rep. Roscoe Bartlett
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post #6 of 38
I wonder how those right wing nut jobs are doing. Do know what the true problem with Conseritves? They will do anything to get back in power. They dug up dirt on Clinton and impeached him due to a personal life thing. Of course Iraq has WMD's. We gave it to them.
post #7 of 38
Remember, though, there are many, many forged documents coming out of Iraq. There were quite a few stories on this a few months ago, particularly when one of them claimed atta met with nidal.

The fact that Mylroie and Tefft are their 'experts' is pretty pitiful (edit: make that very, very pitiful), and the timing and keeping them from normal intel channels is extremely suspect, to put it mildly, since real or not, it's clearly a political move by extremists.

From msnbc when the atta-nidal forgery was out:
Quote:
But U.S. officials and a leading Iraqi document expert tell NEWSWEEK that the document is most likely a forgerypart of a thriving new trade in dubious Iraqi documents that has cropped up in the wake of the collapse of Saddam's regime.

_"It's a lucrative business," says Hassan Mneimneh, codirector of an Iraqi exile research group reviewing millions of captured Iraqi government documents. "There's an active document trade taking place You have fraudulent documents that are being fabricated and sold" for hundreds of dollars a piece.

http://msnbc.msn.com/Default.aspx?id=3741646&p1=0
post #8 of 38
Why are Rumsfeld and Chenny backing off Iraq with statements that put GWB in bad light? Are they trying to set him up for a fall? Everyone knows who the back seat drivers are (... I hope).
Most of us employ the Internet not to seek the best information, but rather to select information that confirms our prejudices. - Nicholas D. Kristof
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Most of us employ the Internet not to seek the best information, but rather to select information that confirms our prejudices. - Nicholas D. Kristof
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post #9 of 38
If this is true, where are these weapons now??

This is really a testament that we are much more threatened then ever. Since we have not found any of these materials in almost 2 years of occupation and after investing so much money and lives, what happened to the "America is more secure". At least with Saddam in charge we could have followed the trails and the dealings of his, while now everything is completely untracable and out of control.

If these documents are real, Bush has to step down because of failure to secure these weapons and endangering American lives like no one has done before.
post #10 of 38
Someone should make one of those "funny" internet videos with how many times the administration have changed its opinion on this matter.
"I reject your reality and substitute it with my own" - President Bush
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"I reject your reality and substitute it with my own" - President Bush
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post #11 of 38
TERROR ALERTS QUANTIFIED AT LAST

This falls into the category of stuff we already knew, but it's nice to have rigorous confirmation anyway:

Quote:
When the federal government issues a terrorist warning, presidential approval ratings jump, a Cornell University sociologist finds. Interestingly, terrorist warnings also boost support for the president on issues that are largely irrelevant to terrorism, such as his handling of the economy.

...."Results showed that terror warnings increased presidential approval ratings consistently," says [researcher Robb] Willer. "They also increased support for Bush's handling of the economy. The findings, however, were inconclusive as to how long this halo effect lasts."

The full report is here, and the basic result is simple: a terror warning leads to an average increase in the president's approval rating of 2.75% and the increase lasts for about a week possibly two weeks at the outside. The results are statistically significant at a very high level and (assuming I read the report correctly) Willer properly controlled for major events like 9/11 and the capture of Saddam Hussein.

That's good to know, isn't it? Until now, we might have lazily guessed that the White House was going to stage some kind of terror alert for, oh, mid-October or so. But with this new data in hand, I think we can confidently expect it on about October 27 instead. After all, the effect only lasts a week.

Washington Monthly
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post #12 of 38
Quote:
There's Kerry. Look at how orange that is. See that? And see the rouge? Now the rouge is spread, not just to his cheeks but under his eye. That is just obscene looking. Don't adjust your TVs out there, folks!

- Rush Limbaugh

"I will say this: President Bush may have come across in his reaction shots as a tad surly and scared, but he is quite the sassy little coquette in his new beige blond hairdo! How fabulous that Mr. Bush chose not to stay the course with yesterday afternoon's white 'do that, all for the wont of intentionally cheap pearls, risked making him look like his mother after an elusive diet. Just an hour before the debate began, Georgie asked me, "2B or not 2B?" I quickly steered him towards the sink and lobbied persuasively that he opt for a flip with Clairol 7B (Tawny Summer), rather than an inevitable flop with Clairol 2B (Anemic Crone).

After retrieving my Aveda Sun Source tanning crème from Mr. Bush (and admonishing him that one five ounce tube is generally not thought to be "one application" by those who've never dated Ben Affleck), I tried to quell his concerns about his new saucy blond locks by saying: "Even as a Christian, I know that it's better to be whorey than hoary, dear!" (Which left him looking rather perplexed an expression he was unable to shake for several hours.)"

- Betty Bowers, America's Best Christian


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post #13 of 38
Quote:
Originally posted by Neø
Some stuff that you guys might want to check out...

Cybercast News Service Obtains Documents Proving Iraq Had WMD, Terror Ties...story | audio

I love your sig. It's such a cute little bundle of ignorance.

I particularly like the "Adam and Steve" one. Like some redneck priest knows what God thinks.
post #14 of 38
Rummy thinks there was a connection!

Will someone PLEASE send me a mail when this one is figured out?
"I reject your reality and substitute it with my own" - President Bush
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"I reject your reality and substitute it with my own" - President Bush
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post #15 of 38
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally posted by tmp

if you look closely enough, you will notice that the clothes in the yellowish picture have a bit of a yellowish hue to them...the camera wasn't properly adjusted, and as a result, the image is heavy in yellow, and seems to also be weak in cyan. The magenta seems just right, but i can't really tell you for sure, since the computer that i'm using has an LCD monitor which can be a quite troublesome when you are trying to work with color proofs.I usually work on graphics upstairs, using my CRT's (one of which is a Sony Trinitron based, and the other is just a regular bubble-screen type) which are calibrated to display the colors accurately.
Crunch for the Cure!
http://www.find-a-drug.org/

---------------------------------
God created Adam and Eve, He didnt create Adam and Steve
-Rep. Roscoe Bartlett
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Crunch for the Cure!
http://www.find-a-drug.org/

---------------------------------
God created Adam and Eve, He didnt create Adam and Steve
-Rep. Roscoe Bartlett
Reply
post #16 of 38
His hair is blonde. Bush is blonde!!! He is ceratinly planning to start Armageddon in his 2nd term. We must prepare.
post #17 of 38
Quote:
Originally posted by Neø
if you look closely enough, you will notice that the clothes in the yellowish picture have a bit of a yellowish hue to them...

Riiiiiiight. Bush's new honey blond 'do and man-tan is lighting, but Kerry's cheekbones are courtesy MAC.

Real cowboys don't do highlights.
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post #18 of 38
This WMD thing has becoming pathetic. Tony blair himself admitted that there was no WOMD. At least he is less pathetic : kudos to him for that .
Link here : http://forums.appleinsider.com/showt...threadid=46764
post #19 of 38
The October surprise is gonna be Cheney dropping out of the race citing "health reasons".
post #20 of 38
Quote:
Originally posted by Gilsch
The October surprise is gonna be Cheney dropping out of the race citing "health reasons".

"I'm sorry to announce that this small piece of lead lodged in my cranium is beginning to impair my campaigning abilities..."
post #21 of 38
If George does survive past Jan 20 he'll be breaking a long string of presidential assignations.

Anyway: Surprise! Surprise!

Both are a little old and not really surprising to those of us who pay attention. They do come as HUGE surprises to the blind followers of the shrub.
"[Saddam's] a bad guy. He's a terrible guy and he should go. But I don't think it's worth 800 troops dead, 4500 wounded -- some of them terribly -- $200 billion of our treasury and counting, and...
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"[Saddam's] a bad guy. He's a terrible guy and he should go. But I don't think it's worth 800 troops dead, 4500 wounded -- some of them terribly -- $200 billion of our treasury and counting, and...
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post #22 of 38
Another Suprise!

Gasp!!! Saddam was just a bad guy according to this report. He wasn't a card carrying mamber of AQ as some here and across America seem to believe.
"[Saddam's] a bad guy. He's a terrible guy and he should go. But I don't think it's worth 800 troops dead, 4500 wounded -- some of them terribly -- $200 billion of our treasury and counting, and...
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"[Saddam's] a bad guy. He's a terrible guy and he should go. But I don't think it's worth 800 troops dead, 4500 wounded -- some of them terribly -- $200 billion of our treasury and counting, and...
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post #23 of 38
Surprise! Saddam not a threat.

Man alive Bush has been throwing out October surprises left and right!
"[Saddam's] a bad guy. He's a terrible guy and he should go. But I don't think it's worth 800 troops dead, 4500 wounded -- some of them terribly -- $200 billion of our treasury and counting, and...
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"[Saddam's] a bad guy. He's a terrible guy and he should go. But I don't think it's worth 800 troops dead, 4500 wounded -- some of them terribly -- $200 billion of our treasury and counting, and...
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post #24 of 38
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally posted by tmp
Riiiiiiight. Bush's new honey blond 'do and man-tan is lighting, but Kerry's cheekbones are courtesy MAC.

Real cowboys don't do highlights.

okay, here is a full quote of what Rush said...
Quote:
Look it, there's Kerry. Look at how orange that is, see that? And see the rouge? Now the rouge is spread, not just to his cheeks but under his eyes, that is just obscene looking. Don't adjust your TVs out there, folks. Don't adjust them. Look at those Wisconsins, pale as ghosts sitting behind him and he's been in the same place they've been for the last week and a half and yet look at him compared to those pale as ghost Wisconsins, nothing against pale as ghost Wisconsins. I mean, this is just a descriptive term.

and the pic
Crunch for the Cure!
http://www.find-a-drug.org/

---------------------------------
God created Adam and Eve, He didnt create Adam and Steve
-Rep. Roscoe Bartlett
Reply
Crunch for the Cure!
http://www.find-a-drug.org/

---------------------------------
God created Adam and Eve, He didnt create Adam and Steve
-Rep. Roscoe Bartlett
Reply
post #25 of 38
Thread Starter 
the pic also has a yellowish tone to it, but if you compare the other folks in the picture to Sen. Kerry, they are definitly more pallid
Crunch for the Cure!
http://www.find-a-drug.org/

---------------------------------
God created Adam and Eve, He didnt create Adam and Steve
-Rep. Roscoe Bartlett
Reply
Crunch for the Cure!
http://www.find-a-drug.org/

---------------------------------
God created Adam and Eve, He didnt create Adam and Steve
-Rep. Roscoe Bartlett
Reply
post #26 of 38
I rather have an orange then a slippery bananna.
post #27 of 38
Quote:
Originally posted by Neø
the pic also has a yellowish tone to it, but if you compare the other folks in the picture to Sen. Kerry, they are definitly more pallid

I don't see what the heck you're getting at.
post #28 of 38
Confirmation that terror alerts work in Bush's favor:

Quote:
When the federal government issues a terrorist warning, presidential approval ratings jump, a Cornell University sociologist finds. Interestingly, terrorist warnings also boost support for the president on issues that are largely irrelevant to terrorism, such as his handling of the economy.

...."Results showed that terror warnings increased presidential approval ratings consistently," says [researcher Robb] Willer. "They also increased support for Bush's handling of the economy. The findings, however, were inconclusive as to how long this halo effect lasts."

The full report is here, and the basic result is simple: a terror warning leads to an average increase in the president's approval rating of 2.75% and the increase lasts for about a week possibly two weeks at the outside. The results are statistically significant at a very high level and (assuming I read the report correctly) Willer properly controlled for major events like 9/11 and the capture of Saddam Hussein.

That's good to know, isn't it? Until now, we might have lazily guessed that the White House was going to stage some kind of terror alert for, oh, mid-October or so. But with this new data in hand, I think we can confidently expect it on about October 27 instead. After all, the effect only lasts a week.

Washington Monthly
"The selfishness of Ayn Rand capitalism is the equivalent of intellectual masturbation -- satisfying in an ego-stroking way, but an ethical void when it comes to our commonly shared humanity."
Reply
"The selfishness of Ayn Rand capitalism is the equivalent of intellectual masturbation -- satisfying in an ego-stroking way, but an ethical void when it comes to our commonly shared humanity."
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post #29 of 38
AP:

"The Education Department has advised school leaders nationwide to watch for people spying on their buildings or buses to help detect any possibility of terrorism like the deadly school siege in Russia. The warning follows an analysis by the FBI and the Homeland Security Department of the siege that killed nearly 340 people, many of them students, in the city of Beslan last month. 'The horror of this attack may have created significant anxiety in our own country among parents, students, faculty staff and other community members,' Deputy Education Secretary Eugene Hickok said in a letter to schools and education groups ... The Education Department sent its letter by e-mail Wednesday to school police, state school officers, school boards, groups representing principals and many other organizations." (emphasis added)

Pretty much on schedule, right?

Josh Marshall
"The selfishness of Ayn Rand capitalism is the equivalent of intellectual masturbation -- satisfying in an ego-stroking way, but an ethical void when it comes to our commonly shared humanity."
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"The selfishness of Ayn Rand capitalism is the equivalent of intellectual masturbation -- satisfying in an ego-stroking way, but an ethical void when it comes to our commonly shared humanity."
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post #30 of 38
Discuss the possibility and impact of any of the following:

1) bin Laden's found in a freezer somewhere.

2) Flightsuit boy makes another "surprise" trip to the troops in Iraq and/or Afghanistan

3) Massive Terra Alert. Code Red!

I think 1) is unlikely. They haven't been laying the groundwork for it. 2) would be very Rovian. "Bush is definitely going to win and he's not going to let the campaign get in the way of his duties as CiC blah blah blah. 3) Too creepy to consider, though I have been hearing rumors.

You can have more fun October Surprise discussion URL=http://www.octobersurprise.net/]here[/URL].

...basic consensus seems to be that 1)is unlikely. 2) is unlikely because Iraq's dangerous and would be a neutral. I agree with the former, but it would dominate the news cycle for a couple of precious days. 3) Some sort of terror alert plus specific threats to places Democrats tend to live.
"The selfishness of Ayn Rand capitalism is the equivalent of intellectual masturbation -- satisfying in an ego-stroking way, but an ethical void when it comes to our commonly shared humanity."
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"The selfishness of Ayn Rand capitalism is the equivalent of intellectual masturbation -- satisfying in an ego-stroking way, but an ethical void when it comes to our commonly shared humanity."
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post #31 of 38
Jesus Christ, Northgate. Quit cribbing entire blog posts. It's just annoying.
post #32 of 38
Forget the WMDs...or lack of them. That's a dead duck, either way; nobody gives a monkey's.....

Here's an October Surprise, if they can pull if off: Osama Bin Laden to be extradited from China, where he now is hiding out. This was just published in the Spanish newspaper El Mundo:
http://www.el-mundo.es/cronica/2004/469/1097487207.html

The English translation is here:
http://www.informationclearinghouse....rticle7077.htm

Another October Surprise would be the bombing of Iran's suspected nuclear facilities, a joint operation in conjunction with the Israeli Air Force, at some point in the two weeks leading up to the US elections.

Either of both of these operations, if successfully completed, would ensure that Bush and Co. would remain in the White House for the next four years.

Four more years, depending on whether someone at a high level blew the whistle on 9-11.....
"We've never made the case, or argued the case that somehow Osama bin Laden was directly involved in 9/11. That evidence has never been forthcoming". VP Cheney, 3/29/2006. Interview by Tony Snow
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"We've never made the case, or argued the case that somehow Osama bin Laden was directly involved in 9/11. That evidence has never been forthcoming". VP Cheney, 3/29/2006. Interview by Tony Snow
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post #33 of 38
S-U-R-P-R-I-S-E

Sanchez memo is definitely a surprise.
"[Saddam's] a bad guy. He's a terrible guy and he should go. But I don't think it's worth 800 troops dead, 4500 wounded -- some of them terribly -- $200 billion of our treasury and counting, and...
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"[Saddam's] a bad guy. He's a terrible guy and he should go. But I don't think it's worth 800 troops dead, 4500 wounded -- some of them terribly -- $200 billion of our treasury and counting, and...
Reply
post #34 of 38
I don't think this is working like Rove would have imagined it but here goes This is an October surprise whether it is released or not. http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/...=la-util-op-ed


The above is a piece about a CIA report that is very critical of high ranking officials post 9/11. It, unlike the 9/11 commission report-- supposidly points fingers and assigns levels of blame. I wonder why the CIA would sit on something like this...

Anyway, enjoy.
"[Saddam's] a bad guy. He's a terrible guy and he should go. But I don't think it's worth 800 troops dead, 4500 wounded -- some of them terribly -- $200 billion of our treasury and counting, and...
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"[Saddam's] a bad guy. He's a terrible guy and he should go. But I don't think it's worth 800 troops dead, 4500 wounded -- some of them terribly -- $200 billion of our treasury and counting, and...
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post #35 of 38
requires registration... care to excerpt it?
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post #36 of 38
Quote:
Originally posted by curiousuburb
requires registration... care to excerpt it?

Just go to www.bugmenot.com

Quote:
The 9/11 Secret in the CIA's Back Pocket
* The agency is withholding a damning report that points at senior officials.

It is shocking: The Bush administration is suppressing a CIA report on 9/11 until after the election, and this one names names. Although the report by the inspector general's office of the CIA was completed in June, it has not been made available to the congressional intelligence committees that mandated the study almost two years ago.

"It is infuriating that a report which shows that high-level people were not doing their jobs in a satisfactory manner before 9/11 is being suppressed," an intelligence official who has read the report told me, adding that "the report is potentially very embarrassing for the administration, because it makes it look like they weren't interested in terrorism before 9/11, or in holding people in the government responsible afterward."

When I asked about the report, Rep. Jane Harman (D-Venice), ranking Democratic member of the House Intelligence Committee, said she and committee Chairman Peter Hoekstra (R-Mich.) sent a letter 14 days ago asking for it to be delivered. "We believe that the CIA has been told not to distribute the report," she said. "We are very concerned."

According to the intelligence official, who spoke to me on condition of anonymity, release of the report, which represents an exhaustive 17-month investigation by an 11-member team within the agency, has been "stalled." First by acting CIA Director John McLaughlin and now by Porter J. Goss, the former Republican House member (and chairman of the Intelligence Committee) who recently was appointed CIA chief by President Bush.

The official stressed that the report was more blunt and more specific than the earlier bipartisan reports produced by the Bush-appointed Sept. 11 commission and Congress.

"What all the other reports on 9/11 did not do is point the finger at individuals, and give the how and what of their responsibility. This report does that," said the intelligence official. "The report found very senior-level officials responsible."

By law, the only legitimate reason the CIA director has for holding back such a report is national security. Yet neither Goss nor McLaughlin has invoked national security as an explanation for not delivering the report to Congress.

"It surely does not involve issues of national security," said the intelligence official.

"The agency directorate is basically sitting on the report until after the election," the official continued. "No previous director of CIA has ever tried to stop the inspector general from releasing a report to the Congress, in this case a report requested by Congress."

None of this should surprise us given the Bush administration's great determination since 9/11 to resist any serious investigation into how the security of this nation was so easily breached. In Bush's much ballyhooed war on terror, ignorance has been bliss.

The president fought against the creation of the Sept. 11 commission, for example, agreeing only after enormous political pressure was applied by a grass-roots movement led by the families of those slain.

And then Bush refused to testify to the commission under oath, or on the record. Instead he deigned only to chat with the commission members, with Vice President Dick Cheney present, in a White House meeting in which commission members were not allowed to take notes. All in all, strange behavior for a man who seeks reelection to the top office in the land based on his handling of the so-called war on terror.

In September, the New York Times reported that several family members met with Goss privately to demand the release of the CIA inspector general's report. "Three thousand people were killed on 9/11, and no one has been held accountable," 9/11 widow Kristen Breitweiser told the paper.

The failure to furnish the report to Congress, said Harman, "fuels the perception that no one is being held accountable. It is unacceptable that we don't have [the report]; it not only disrespects Congress but it disrespects the American people."

The stonewalling by the Bush administration and the failure of Congress to gain release of the report have, said the intelligence source, "led the management of the CIA to believe it can engage in a cover-up with impunity. Unless the public demands an accounting, the administration and CIA's leadership will have won and the nation will have lost."
"[Saddam's] a bad guy. He's a terrible guy and he should go. But I don't think it's worth 800 troops dead, 4500 wounded -- some of them terribly -- $200 billion of our treasury and counting, and...
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"[Saddam's] a bad guy. He's a terrible guy and he should go. But I don't think it's worth 800 troops dead, 4500 wounded -- some of them terribly -- $200 billion of our treasury and counting, and...
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post #37 of 38
Makes you wonder what the worst case scenario would be for "accidentally" leaking it.
post #38 of 38
Quote:
Originally posted by BuonRotto
Makes you wonder what the worst case scenario would be for "accidentally" leaking it.

Hopefully, the blogoshpere and then the media will pick up on this. This sort of thing would be nothing short of disasterous for Bush-O.
"[Saddam's] a bad guy. He's a terrible guy and he should go. But I don't think it's worth 800 troops dead, 4500 wounded -- some of them terribly -- $200 billion of our treasury and counting, and...
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"[Saddam's] a bad guy. He's a terrible guy and he should go. But I don't think it's worth 800 troops dead, 4500 wounded -- some of them terribly -- $200 billion of our treasury and counting, and...
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