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Report in Lancet: 100,000 civilian deaths in Iraq.

post #1 of 32
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http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmp...q_death_toll_5

Here is what we've done in the war for the "freedom" of the Iraqi people. Bush, Rumseld, Myers. Franks et al etc have joined the ranks of the worlds worst despots.

100,000 dead Iraqi civilians have millions of angry bereaved lovers, relatives, friends and acquaintances...who now look at Americans as heartless thugs, on account of the behavior of the mass murderers in our government. And they are absolutely right in that estimation.

I love my country, but I am ashamed and disgusted by its terrorist leaders.

Even though I am an atheist, perhaps the most apt expression of disgust would be something like "may God damn them to hell for all eternity, with the likes of Hitler, Saddam, Pol Pot, Suharto and every other enemy of civilization".

"We've never made the case, or argued the case that somehow Osama bin Laden was directly involved in 9/11. That evidence has never been forthcoming". VP Cheney, 3/29/2006. Interview by Tony Snow
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"We've never made the case, or argued the case that somehow Osama bin Laden was directly involved in 9/11. That evidence has never been forthcoming". VP Cheney, 3/29/2006. Interview by Tony Snow
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post #2 of 32
Quote:
The new figures are based on surveys done by the researchers in Iraq in September 2004. They compared Iraqi deaths during 14.6 months before the invasion in March 2003 and the 17.8 months after it by conducting household surveys in randomly selected neighborhoods.

I don´t think this is an ideal method. It might be the best considering the circumstances but that doesn´t change the fact that 100000 death is a VERY rough estimate. The pollution that goes into such a survey would in my eyes set the numbers too high but of course they could be even higher.

my guestimate would be somewhere between the official 12-15.000 to maybe 7-80.000
"I reject your reality and substitute it with my own" - President Bush
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post #3 of 32
Quote:
Originally posted by Anders
I don´t think this is an ideal method. It might be the best considering the circumstances but that doesn´t change the fact that 100000 death is a VERY rough estimate. The pollution that goes into such a survey would in my eyes set the numbers too high but of course they could be even higher.

my guestimate would be somewhere between the official 12-15.000 to maybe 7-80.000

Unfortunately I think 10-1 is roughly accurate when compared to other fighting we've done since GWI.
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post #4 of 32
Damn, and I thought http://www.iraqbodycount.net was a liberal estimate.

How many innocent people did Saddam kill?
post #5 of 32
Man you people are stupid! It says that an estimated 100,00 have died. IT DOESN'T SAY WHAT THE REASON FOR THE DEATH WAS! But SJO's (et. al.) knee jerk anti-americanism blames all deaths in Iraq on the US.

Get a brain and use it to think.
post #6 of 32
Quote:
Originally posted by Scott
Man you people are stupid! It says that an estimated 100,00 have died. IT DOESN'T SAY WHAT THE REASON FOR THE DEATH WAS! But SJO's (et. al.) knee jerk anti-americanism blames all deaths in Iraq on the US.

Get a brain and use it to think.

So how many Iraqis do you think have died? How many deaths do you feel is acceptable for "liberating" a country?
post #7 of 32
Quote:
Originally posted by Scott
Man you people are stupid! It says that an estimated 100,00 have died. IT DOESN'T SAY WHAT THE REASON FOR THE DEATH WAS! But SJO's (et. al.) knee jerk anti-americanism blames all deaths in Iraq on the US.

Get a brain and use it to think.

Maybe it was just part of that four-year cycle of death-increases?

maybe every four years in Iraq the number of deaths suddedly jump up by ann extra 100,000?

or rather, maybe it is the combined effect of:
a destroyed infrastructure, sewage-water-delivery of needed goods etc,
completely inneffectual rebiulding,
purposeful gutting of state resources through privatization giveaways,
Bombings of "weddings" and "safe houses"
Depleted Uranium
sheer chaotic and unhygienic environment coupled with lack of medicines from destroyed infrastructure
and, the insurgency: which has grown and seems to be growing with plenty of EXPLOSIVES on hand.
Dying in prison beatings
or maybe the general chaos and stress of chaos just makes it too difficult to keep it together?

and maybe all of those things are direct results of a poorly run invasion
. . . not to mention the 'Shock and Awe' bombing campaign of which we, of course, saw little to no actuality
"They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we."
--George W Bush

"Narrative is what starts to happen after eight minutes
--Franklin Miller.

"Nothing...

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"They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we."
--George W Bush

"Narrative is what starts to happen after eight minutes
--Franklin Miller.

"Nothing...

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post #8 of 32
Quote:
Originally posted by bborofka
Damn, and I thought http://www.iraqbodycount.net was a liberal estimate.

How many innocent people did Saddam kill?

How do you define innocent ?

Many (not all) of the people Saddam killed were also people the US would want to kill - ie Islamists (or fundamentalist terrorists to you).

Many (not all) of the people Saddam killed were also people the US would want to kill - ie Iranians - if Bush gets back in and brings more democracy to another oppressed country.
What is Faith? When your good deed pleases you and your evil deed grieves you, you are a believer. What is Sin? When a thing disturbs the peace of your heart, give it up - Prophet Muhammad
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What is Faith? When your good deed pleases you and your evil deed grieves you, you are a believer. What is Sin? When a thing disturbs the peace of your heart, give it up - Prophet Muhammad
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post #9 of 32
We Are Spreading Freedom.. but...
It's Hard Work!
eye
bee
BEE
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bee
BEE
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post #10 of 32
Quote:
Originally posted by Scott
Man you people are stupid! It says that an estimated 100,00 have died. IT DOESN'T SAY WHAT THE REASON FOR THE DEATH WAS! But SJO's (et. al.) knee jerk anti-americanism blames all deaths in Iraq on the US.

Get a brain and use it to think.

How did they die? Collective suicide?
'L'enfer, c'est les autres' - JPS
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'L'enfer, c'est les autres' - JPS
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post #11 of 32
What is the difference if they died from US bombs, the lawlessness we allowed to grip the nation or the lack of food and medicine that resulted from our crippling of their infrastructure and government? Bottom line, we took a functioning, yet very imperfect society, and turned it into dysfunctional chaos.
post #12 of 32
If we keep think up, we'll have to have the UN go after America like they went after France for allowing all those old folks to die in 85 degree weather.

Nick

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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post #13 of 32
If you have 20 months, thats 170 people a day, every day.


Entry Word: hyperbole
Function: noun
Text: Synonyms EXAGGERATION, coloring, embellishment, embroidering, overstatement

In our desire to impose form on the world we have lost the capacity to see the form that is there;
and in that lies not liberation but alienation, the cutting off from things as they really are. --...

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In our desire to impose form on the world we have lost the capacity to see the form that is there;
and in that lies not liberation but alienation, the cutting off from things as they really are. --...

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post #14 of 32
Quote:
Originally posted by dmz
If you have 20 months, thats 170 people a day, every day.


Entry Word: hyperbole
Function: noun
Text: Synonyms EXAGGERATION, coloring, embellishment, embroidering, overstatement

170 people every DAY. That's a terrible statistic, awful. Exaggeration isn't needed. It's shameful.
post #15 of 32
Quote:
Originally posted by trumptman
If we keep think up, we'll have to have the UN go after America like they went after France for allowing all those old folks to die in 85 degree weather.

You can't compare a natural disaster to intentional mass murder.
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post #16 of 32
Quote:
Originally posted by trumptman
If we keep think up, we'll have to have the UN go after America like they went after France for allowing all those old folks to die in 85 degree weather.

Nick

Streeeeetch....
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post #17 of 32
100,000? God damn.

I don't know if it's true, but I'm not going to dismiss it because it is depressing. I have a hard time believing only 10,000ish, though. There is no way there's such a low ratio of civilian:American/Iraqisoldier deaths, no way.
proud resident of a failed state
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proud resident of a failed state
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post #18 of 32
This is very sad.
It shows that making bad decisions can have VERY serious consequences. I don't think that Bush realized how many people would die as a result of his actions.
post #19 of 32
I'm not surprised in the least. I would even guess it's more than 100,000 killed civilians, the report says it has excluded Fallujah, the main resistance-town from the study, so I expect it to be more in the ball-range of 200,000-500,000 killed civilians.

It's the natural consequence of the US-decision to use only 150,000 soldiers and instead use the airforce to destroy the enemy. 1,000 pound-bombs thrown down from planes are definetly more destructive in terms of killing civilians than ground-troops and tanks. The idea behind that was that with that method the excessive deaths of US-soldiers could be prevented, which could have influenced public opinion among the americans at home.

Just remember what the secret bombing campaign of the US in Cambodia did. There about 600,000 civilians were killed.

Nightcrawler
I disagree, and could prove you're wrong; care to offer any proof that you're not wrong?
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I disagree, and could prove you're wrong; care to offer any proof that you're not wrong?
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post #20 of 32
Quote:
Originally posted by bunge
You can't compare a natural disaster to intentional mass murder.

Sure I can. Especially since the civilian deaths weren't intentional and the study declaring them is meaningless.

Slate - 8,000 or 100,000?

Quote:
The report's authors derive this figure by estimating how many Iraqis died in a 14-month period before the U.S. invasion, conducting surveys on how many died in a similar period after the invasion began (more on those surveys later), and subtracting the difference. That differencethe number of "extra" deaths in the post-invasion periodsignifies the war's toll. That number is 98,000. But read the passage that cites the calculation more fully:

We estimate there were 98,000 extra deaths (95% CI 8000-194 000) during the post-war period.

Readers who are accustomed to perusing statistical documents know what the set of numbers in the parentheses means. For the other 99.9 percent of you, I'll spell it out in plain Englishwhich, disturbingly, the study never does. It means that the authors are 95 percent confident that the war-caused deaths totaled some number between 8,000 and 194,000. (The number cited in plain language98,000is roughly at the halfway point in this absurdly vast range.)

This isn't an estimate. It's a dart board.

A second point...

Quote:
There were other problems. The survey team simply could not visit some of the randomly chosen clusters; the roads were blocked off, in some cases by coalition checkpoints. So the team picked other, more accessible areas that had received similar amounts of damage. But it's unclear how they made this calculation. In any case, the detour destroyed the survey's randomness; the results are inherently tainted. In other cases, the team didn't find enough people in a cluster to interview, so they expanded the survey to an adjoining cluster. Again, at that point, the survey was no longer random, and so the results are suspect.

Lastly....

Quote:
The IBC estimates that between 14,181 and 16,312 Iraqi civilians have died as a result of the warabout half of them since the battlefield phase of the war ended last May. The group also notes that these figures are probably on the low side, since some deaths must have taken place outside the media's purview.

These numbers are right in line with what the country of France suffered just from a heatwave. Considering conducting a war is a lot harder to do with precision than say, installing an air conditioner, I consider the job of our military, and their leaders to be a careful well done job.

Nick

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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post #21 of 32
Quote:
Originally posted by trumptman
Sure I can. Especially since the civilian deaths weren't intentional and the study declaring them is meaningless.

Your 'argument' here is meaningless.

How many people would have died during the same time period if we hadn't attacked? How many died as a result of our attack? That's all that matters. If we attacked during a heat wave that killed thousands of elderly then we could normalize the numbers based on the number of deaths by heat. That's not what happened.

If you want to argue that the study was bad, do so. Give some of your best evidence. That's fine. But the number of dead in France has nothing to do with the number of dead in Iraq. There is no connection and their values do not correlate in any rational way.
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post #22 of 32
Quote:
Originally posted by bunge
Your 'argument' here is meaningless.

How many people would have died during the same time period if we hadn't attacked? How many died as a result of our attack? That's all that matters. If we attacked during a heat wave that killed thousands of elderly then we could normalize the numbers based on the number of deaths by heat. That's not what happened.

If you want to argue that the study was bad, do so. Give some of your best evidence. That's fine. But the number of dead in France has nothing to do with the number of dead in Iraq. There is no connection and their values do not correlate in any rational way.

What you don't get is the magnitude of most matters we deal with in todays world. The heatwave is a good comparison not because we directly caused the heatwave or attacked during a heatwave, but because it shows how when you start running numbers involving entire countries, millions of people the results can always start to look large. Additionally you have to take what would have been the normal death index show how much higher it is, and then find ways of directly, in an unbiased manner attributing the deaths to the cause you claim.

The link I provided showed that their estimates were very far off on their initial assumption on the death rate. Their interview process was flawed and incomplete, they couldn't reach all the sites they were supposed to, and had one huge outlier that they never explained. I linked to a source that provided substanciated, proven death numbers. They are no where near the 100k number provided in that study. (Which provides a range of 8,000-198-000)

While I am sad for those deaths, our military did their best to prevent them.

Nick

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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post #23 of 32
Quote:
Originally posted by trumptman
While I am sad for those deaths, our military did their best to prevent them.

You can't believe that when we've engaged in an ariel bombing campaign. That's not their best to protect citizens.
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post #24 of 32
Quote:
Originally posted by bunge
You can't believe that when we've engaged in an ariel bombing campaign. That's not their best to protect citizens.

In 2002 we had 42,815 total traffic fatalities. The death rate was 14.66 per 100,000 people.

We have seatbelts, air bags, licensing, speed limits, etc. We did our best but still those people died driving.

BTW, that rate for driving is higher than the death rate for bombing in Iraq. Which means you were safer being bombed by our military than you are driving down the street. I do call that the best attempt by our military to be precise. You can call it what you want.

Also the cost from all these accidents last year was $230.568 billion dollars. Yet no one would suggest the president or our military are failures for allowing people to drive.

All you've shown is that when you run data on big numbers, you can get some big results. You don't like it when I point it out because it doesn't fit your little political views.

Nick

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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post #25 of 32
And if 100,000 Americans were killed by terrorist bomb attacks over 18 months it would be true that you'd be more likely to be killed driving down the street than by a terrorist bomb.

If Americans had this statistic explained to them I'm sure they'd be cool about it.
post #26 of 32
Come to think of it, why did you all get ants in your pants after 9/11?

God, that was only 3,000 deaths, and no-one's died since. That's only, what, 750 deaths a year if you divide it by four. You're more likely to die slipping in the shower than you are at the hand of a terrorist in the United States.

Won't you people just chill out?
post #27 of 32
Quote:
Originally posted by Hassan i Sabbah
Come to think of it, why did you all get ants in your pants after 9/11?

God, that was only 3,000 deaths, and no-one's died since. That's only, what, 750 deaths a year if you divide it by four. You're more likely to die slipping in the shower than you are at the hand of a terrorist in the United States.

Won't you people just chill out?

Four times more likely to be killed by your neighbour than a terrorist.
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post #28 of 32
Quote:
Originally posted by Hassan i Sabbah
And if 100,000 Americans were killed by terrorist bomb attacks over 18 months it would be true that you'd be more likely to be killed driving down the street than by a terrorist bomb.

If Americans had this statistic explained to them I'm sure they'd be cool about it.

The number you mention has already been debunked.

I posted the yearly number and your math sucks. The number of total traffic fatalities over 18 months would be about 63,000. So if there were 100k dead from terrorist bombings you would be more likely to die from terrorist bombing, not driving.

But either way the 100k number is nothing more than fiction.

Nick

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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post #29 of 32
Quote:
Originally posted by trumptman
In 2002 we had 42,815 total traffic fatalities. The death rate was 14.66 per 100,000 people.

We have seatbelts, air bags, licensing, speed limits, etc. We did our best but still those people died driving.

BTW, that rate for driving is higher than the death rate for bombing in Iraq. Which means you were safer being bombed by our military than you are driving down the street. I do call that the best attempt by our military to be precise. You can call it what you want.

Also the cost from all these accidents last year was $230.568 billion dollars. Yet no one would suggest the president or our military are failures for allowing people to drive.

All you've shown is that when you run data on big numbers, you can get some big results. You don't like it when I point it out because it doesn't fit your little political views.

I think Hassan addressed your 'point' quite accurately.

And what does an individual's choice to drive have to do with someone being bombed by our planes?
"Hearing a corrupt CEO like Cheney denigrate Edwards for being a trial lawyer is like hearing a child molester complain how Larry Flint is a pervert." -johnq
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post #30 of 32
Quote:
Originally posted by segovius
Four times more likely to be killed by your neighbour than a terrorist.

Well, there you go.

What's wrong with these people?

God, you're more likely to die choking on a pretzel or something.
post #31 of 32
Quote:
Originally posted by Hassan i Sabbah
Come to think of it, why did you all get ants in your pants after 9/11?

God, that was only 3,000 deaths, and no-one's died since. That's only, what, 750 deaths a year if you divide it by four. You're more likely to die slipping in the shower than you are at the hand of a terrorist in the United States.

Won't you people just chill out?

Quote:
Originally posted by segovius
Four times more likely to be killed by your neighbour than a terrorist.

If Kerry had used numbers like that, he probably could have won the election by turning it to his strong suit, domestic policy.

But then there was that whole WOMD that would have pretty much created a very large outlier that we didn't even care to attempt to deal with.

Nick

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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post #32 of 32
Quote:
Originally posted by trumptman
While I am sad for those deaths, our military did their best to prevent them.

Does that include bombing a hospital?
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