Originally posted by giant
We see you make mistakes in just about every post.
So that would be a "no" on being able to outline my mistakes. Nice to see you can still turn it into a personal insult though since you have no backing.
But WRT to this, looking at just about any economic situation and saying you 'don't consider it bad at all' is just asking for trouble. dfiler pointed out some of the issues that make the current situation risky. There are others, like the fact that housing prices are really inflated. There's absolutely nothing certain about the housing situation, and we are all taking risks.
So that would be a "no" on being able to point out my mistakes, but now I'm just "asking for trouble."
We are not "all" taking risks. There are some of us who are not heavily leveraged. Some of us have excellent cashflow and will scoop up this discounted property from people who bid them too high while stupidly speculating. Plus you do realize that when people are less likely to buy a house, they become more likely to rent. That makes my rents go higher which again, improves my cashflow.
In fact for me, the party is just getting ready to begin. These are the lean times for rents. The disconnect between rents and house payments has grown too large. People will commit to a higher than necessary house payments instead of lower rents because they believe they will get some sort of insane appreciation. They will buy the house that rents at $1200 a month for $1800 a month in house payments because they think they are going to get 20% appreciation on it.
The second they decide they aren't getting the appreciation, a whole lot of them are going to want that $1200 house. So many in fact that it will easily become a $1300-1350 house. Rents and house payments will come back closer together. The house price will depreciate enough to knock the house payment back down to say $1500-1550.
Silly man, I'm a landlord. Rents have been DEPRESSED during record home ownership. The second people stop buying, they still need a place to live and when they won't buy, they RENT. When they walk away from $1800 a month, $1350 for the exact same property looks like a steal. Property appreciation is nice for my net-worth but it isn't liquid. I don't get to spend it month to month. I especially don't get to spend it on houses that could be 30% lower in price on a foreclosure.
If/When housing prices drop 30%, I'll be the happiest man in this forum.
One thing your responses in another thread made clear, however, was that you didn't anticipate the tremendous growth of at least one major industry that benefitted from the war. It's apparent that one of the reasons was likely a problem that afflicts many people who apparently hold opinions shaped by political ideologies: the inability to recognize real motives of economic movers because doing so would undermine parts of the ideologically-based belief system.
Translated. You know nothing about my finances, and you don't like my political beliefs, so obviously I'm going to end up bad.
I love the total lack of hard information in your posts. You let others fill it in for you and then later claim you weren't saying what they filled in for you. It is hilarous to watch.
And this is what we are seeing here. Rather than dealing with the situation in a realistic manner, you've offered a series of excuses, much in the way many bush supporters did with qaqaa. The problem here, however, is that there is no justification for stripping all of the externalities off of something like a homeownership statistic when it's an issue the people you are talking to have to deal with in their own lives in the real world.
Hahahahaha... God. I need to wipe the tears away. Yes, us Bush supporters have stripped away all the externalities. We've ignored things like the 5.4% growth rate. The actual growth of the economy. The slight raise in interest rates to offset an economy that might actually risk overheating because it is so strong.
Thanks for the laugh. I'll continue to do so, all the way to the bank.
Thanks also for the lack of hard information, the continual insinuation and insults that pass for information in your posts and for discrediting yourself better than I could.