Take a look at this from electoral-vote.com:
(I've captured the above image and I'm hosting it myself, because electoral-vote.com is getting hammered now! If you can get to the site, the original image is interactive, revealing details about each state -- exact numbers, polling source, results from 2000, etc., when you point at each state.)
When I look at that map, I also consider the following things:
Most of the polls in 2000 were off 2-4 points in favor of Bush. There's good reason to believe that the same bias and more still exists, including the fact that cell-phone only voters, who are mostly young, urban, and lean democratic, have been left out of most of the polling.
GOTV (Get Out The Vote). All indications I've seen are that the Democratic GOTV operation is better than ever, and doing much better than the Republican effort. Newly registered Democrats are handily outstripping newly registered Republicans. As anecdotal evidence, I can say that here in NH Dems are out in force. I see Kerry supporters all the time out on the streets waving Kerry/Edwards signs. On the other hand, I've barely seen any Republican effort except for bumper stickers and yard signs. In Manchester yesterday, I saw only a couple of Republican protesters in a sea of Kerry visibility people, all lining the streets of Manchester during the Kerry rally there. From what I heard, there were a few more protesters than that who I missed, but still they were majorly overwhelmed.
Democrats want this election, BADLY. Maybe some of the die-hard Christian Right is just as fired up, but I don't feel like the overall Republican drive to get out and vote holds a candle to the Democratic commitment to do so.
Considering all of the above, I doubt that any state shown as blue will in reality turn red, I think the exact ties (CO and NM, total of 14 EV) are likely to go to Kerry, and it won't surprise me at all for one or two "Barely Bush" states to turn blue too.
I also believe tend to believe, based on the skew I suspect exists in most polls, that there's enough of a comfortable margin to overcome Republican RTV (Repress The Vote) efforts (Republican plans to have partisan amateurs challenge voter elibility at polls in Ohio was struck down as unconstitutional today), and enough of a margin of error to overcome one or two suprise losses to Bush, even a big state like Florida.