or Connect
AppleInsider › Forums › Other Discussion › AppleOutsider › PoliticalOutsider › Time to Call the Election
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

Time to Call the Election - Page 2

post #41 of 64
Personally I was referring to the potential for an electoral college blowout. The popular vote could be very close, yet still result in an electoral college blowout no?
post #42 of 64
Quote:
Originally posted by Scott
How can you people think there's going to be a "blow out" when the polls show it to be a statistical tie?

Because the polls are still using historical data to predict voter turnout, and adjusting their numbers accordingly. This election will not follow historical trend.
post #43 of 64
Quote:
Originally posted by faust9
Better than ever is not a comparission to what the Dems have done. It's your form of wishful thinking here SDW. Better than ever would be in reference to past republicna efforts. The Dems tronced the repubs in voter sign up thus the republican plans in multiple states to slow down the voting process.

Kerry will win-311 EV. That's all that matters

Sorry faust but it is you and the others who have the fanciful, wishful thinking. Most of these late breaking polls that even have Kerry gaining some ground is basically the poll-meisters tweaking their likely voter models and giving most undecideds to Kerry. Even with that, Bush leads by a couple points.

The Democrats have done better than Republicans in sign ups in some areas. However the Republican efforts were true party efforts with follow up contacts involving face time, true confirmation of addresses and people, etc. Democratic efforts were largely third party, by people paid per signature (with large numbers of false returns amazingly enough) and no follow ups.

The Republican GOTV effort has already had a very successful result. We've had the 2002 elections which featured the Republicans making unprecidented midterm gains including retaking the Senate. Polls have shown that most Republicans are energetic and voting FOR Bush. They have also shown that most Democrats endorse Kerry but are mainly voting for him because he isn't Bush.

All these little incidentals you've brought up are just spin and you don't even realize it. They are there to give guys like you a little hope since the polls haven't broken your way for months.

Nick

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

Reply

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

Reply
post #44 of 64
Quote:
Originally posted by tonton
Because the polls are still using historical data to predict voter turnout, and adjusting their numbers accordingly. This election will not follow historical trend.

The historical data you mention entirely mispredicted the Republican results for 2002. If anything, these polls dramatically underestimate Republican results. They did in 2002.

Nick

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

Reply

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

Reply
post #45 of 64
Quote:
Originally posted by trumptman
The historical data you mention entirely mispredicted the Republican results for 2002. If anything, these polls dramatically underestimate Republican results. They did in 2002.

Nick

2002 was the first election following 9/11.
post #46 of 64
Quote:
Originally posted by Scott
How can you people think there's going to be a "blow out" when the polls show it to be a statistical tie?

I know it a different country, different political system but in Canada's last Federal election the majority of polls indicated the Conservatives would win a majority government. This was the weekend before the election. In the end, the Liberals won a minority and the Conservatives barely go a seat east of Manitoba. The only polls I'll trust are the exit polls. Nothing else matters. This could still be a blow out for either side.
post #47 of 64
Quote:
Originally posted by Scott
How can you people think there's going to be a "blow out" when the polls show it to be a statistical tie?

Because we know that polls have a GOP bias, therefore to reach a tie in the polls means that alot more people have expressed a preference for Kerry over Bush.

Sadly for you, that means that as the elections are not statistically biased, more people will vote for Kerry.
post #48 of 64
Quote:
Originally posted by Scott
I think you'll see largely the same result from 2000 with a % tilt to Bush.

So you think Kerry will win too huh?
"Hearing a corrupt CEO like Cheney denigrate Edwards for being a trial lawyer is like hearing a child molester complain how Larry Flint is a pervert." -johnq
Reply
"Hearing a corrupt CEO like Cheney denigrate Edwards for being a trial lawyer is like hearing a child molester complain how Larry Flint is a pervert." -johnq
Reply
post #49 of 64
Quote:
Originally posted by SDW2001
No, it's called wishful thinking. No way Kerry is getting 318. No way. Republican's GOTV and ground tactics have been better than ever.


He, he, he, he, !
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
Reply
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
Reply
post #50 of 64
I thought this was interesting. It has all the polls from the final days of the 2000 election. There are a grand total of 2, out of about 20 in the final days, that show a Gore lead. Bush is leading by 4 or 5 on average.
post #51 of 64
Quote:
Originally posted by BRussell
I thought this was interesting. It has all the polls from the final days of the 2000 election. There are a grand total of 2, out of about 20 in the final days, that show a Gore lead. Bush is leading by 4 or 5 on average.

That's insane. But that's why I think Kerry is actually ahead even before the undecided.
"Hearing a corrupt CEO like Cheney denigrate Edwards for being a trial lawyer is like hearing a child molester complain how Larry Flint is a pervert." -johnq
Reply
"Hearing a corrupt CEO like Cheney denigrate Edwards for being a trial lawyer is like hearing a child molester complain how Larry Flint is a pervert." -johnq
Reply
post #52 of 64
My Final Election Prediction, explained in mind-numbing detail regarding how I've calculated my results (transparency is good).

My abstract:

Bush win the popular vote 49.3% to 48.9%.

Kerry wins the Electoral College 286 to 252.
post #53 of 64
/\\ whoa, you put a lot of time into that, I commend you for it.
orange you just glad?
Reply
orange you just glad?
Reply
post #54 of 64
Thanks.

In my own defense, I'm not just a political junkie, but do intend to actually be a political scientist.
post #55 of 64
I think Kerry is going to win.
meh
Reply
meh
Reply
post #56 of 64
I think it's almost too close to call but I think ( hope ) that Kerry will win.

On a side note.......

http://money.cnn.com/2004/11/02/news...reut/index.htm

I think we all would like to stop reading disappointing news like this. I think if Kerry wins we'll finally be able to.
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
Reply
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
Reply
post #57 of 64
Quote:
Originally posted by Harald
I think Kerry is going to win.

I hope you're right.
post #58 of 64
I just came back from voting, and the turnout is looking great. It wasn't a long wait to vote -- took me maybe 15 minutes -- but my ward's polling station has always been very fast and efficient.

What really showed the turn-out was how cars were lined up far up and down the street from the elementary school where we vote. I've never seen more than a few cars spill-over from the school's parking lot before, and never had to park so far away.

If turn-out favors Democrats, and I'm pretty sure that it will, Kerry is doing GREAT here.

From 12-8pm I'll be driving around getting more people in to vote, so I'll be doing what I can to make the turn-out even bigger.
We were once so close to heaven
Peter came out and gave us medals
Declaring us the nicest of the damned -- They Might Be Giants          See the stars at skyviewcafe.com
Reply
We were once so close to heaven
Peter came out and gave us medals
Declaring us the nicest of the damned -- They Might Be Giants          See the stars at skyviewcafe.com
Reply
post #59 of 64
I believe that we will know the name of the new president of the US before december. ( a huge improvment compared to 2000)
post #60 of 64
If Kerry wins electoral and Bush wins popular I will laugh very hard for a very long time. The irony would be too perfect.

That said, Bush wins by a lot. I don't really think it will be very close. I feel very fatalistic and that's my only real logic in making that prediction.

I hope Kerry wins, and then I hope the progressive element of society that was awoken does not go back to sleep and instead keeps pressure on those in power. I have a feeling that is likely, since so many are anti-Bush and not necessarily pro-Kerry.
proud resident of a failed state
Reply
proud resident of a failed state
Reply
post #61 of 64
Kerry Victory!

Fellowship
May the peace of the Lord be with you always

Share your smile, Have respect for others, and be loving to all peoples

Paul in Athens: Acts 17 : 16-34
Reply
May the peace of the Lord be with you always

Share your smile, Have respect for others, and be loving to all peoples

Paul in Athens: Acts 17 : 16-34
Reply
post #62 of 64
Quote:
Originally posted by tonton
2002 was the first election following 9/11.

So are claiming that nationwide Democrats just decided to lie down, or that they just decided to vote Republican?

I could understand this sentiment about supporting the president or something of that nature. However explain what this has to do with every other race.

Or it could have been the first test of the Republican GOTV and worked very well.

Nick

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

Reply

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

Reply
post #63 of 64
kerry 296
post #64 of 64
Quote:
Originally posted by trumptman
...they just decided to vote Republican?

Duh.
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: PoliticalOutsider
AppleInsider › Forums › Other Discussion › AppleOutsider › PoliticalOutsider › Time to Call the Election