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Analyst survey delivers proof of iPod 'halo' effect

post #1 of 37
Thread Starter 
Apple stock is on the rise once again, as analysts raise their target prices and provide support of an iPod 'halo' effect.

Shares of Apple Computer jumped as much as 16 percent on Monday, to their highest level in more than 4 years, after one Wall Street analyst nearly doubled his price target on the stock.

"Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster raised his 12-month price target to $100 from $52, citing a survey conducted by his firm showing that Apple's popular iPod digital music players are helping boost sales of its signature Macintosh computers."

In a research note to clients, Munster said that a survey of 200 iPod users in the United States found that 6 percent were formerly PC users who had bought a Mac after buying an iPod. Another 7 percent of the iPod users surveyed said they planned to buy a Mac in the future.

Munster also said that he believes high levels of customer satisfaction with the digital music player will lead to an increase in Apple sales.

"We believe that the remarkable satisfaction with the iPod creates a word-of-mouth wildfire that generates new customer interest in Apple products," he said.

Apple shares jumped $6.61, or 12 percent, to $61.78 in mid-morning trade on the Nasdaq stock market after rising as high as $64 earlier in the session.
post #2 of 37
Wow.

Kickaha did you sell at $50 you might just get a bit more for that Ducati
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post #3 of 37
$50 came and went so fast I didn't have a chance!

Seriously, I decided to hold on and see what happened. $50 was my sell point for 'no more good news, same old same old". Well, we've had very good news, and things they are a'changin'. News on the HD-DVD and broadcast formats wrt MPEG-4 and QuickTime's core technologies is *VERY* good. Should create some good markets for Apple in the next two years.

Also note that that $100 target is for a year from now, not next week. Consider that iPod sales are *still* increasing. The analyst took the 13% switcher rate and cut it in half for safety... but still, a 6.5% rate on the estimated 6 million iPods sold this Xmas season results in 390,000 *new* Mac users. That's a nice boost for that quarter, yes?

Also, iTMS is still the leader of the pack for online music, despite every major competitor now having their cards on the table. For a while it was "Oh, Real is going to knock them off", then it was "Ooooh, Sony will stick it to them", and finally "MS will crush them for sure". Um... right. Hasn't happened, doesn't look like it's going to anytime soon. The initial salvo is over, and iTMS is sitting pretty. This plus the creation content end means that Apple has both tech and creds to push for the next big thing in entertainment creation and delivery. I won't presume to know what that is, or what it will look like, but Apple has all the pieces. They've quickly turned into precisely what so many have pleaded with them to be for so long: a software company. Just not the software most people envisioned.

They've leapfrogged MS in the control of basic technologies. MS controlled the OS, and won the PC wars. Apple is poised to control (or at least have best of breed experience for) the very formats that media content is created, delivered, and viewed in. Thank you, QuickTime, iPod, and iTMS.
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post #4 of 37
I'm so jaded that this all sounds too good to be true. But maybe its Apple's turn to shine again. I would love if they just got their butts over the 5% mark.
post #5 of 37
Quote:
Originally posted by Kickaha
The analyst took the 13% switcher rate and cut it in half for safety...

The only thing I'm squeamish about, is that a survey of 200 users isn't a hell of a lot. Regardless, the gauntlet has fallen. There better be evidence of a halo effect in Apple's financials in the near future, or the stock will get hammered.
post #6 of 37
Of course there's a halo effect.

It's not INSTANT, but over the course of the next few years, it's certainly going to be real.

Someone who thinks computer=Microsoft and then loves iTunes and iPod will take Apple a little more seriously as an option to consider next time they buy a computer. Maybe now, but more likely in a year, or two, or three. Maybe the computer after next. But the seed is planted--at a time when people are increasingly fed up with Windows.

You see lots of posts from people saying they got a Mac because they liked their iPod. The halo effect is real, it's just the scale of it that remains unknown.

One good thing--it's not JUST an awareness effect. It's also a branding/coolness effect--something very powerful in these times of consumerism.
post #7 of 37
Quote:
Originally posted by the cool gut
The only thing I'm squeamish about, is that a survey of 200 users isn't a hell of a lot. Regardless, the gauntlet has fallen. There better be evidence of a halo effect in Apple's financials in the near future, or the stock will get hammered.

I wholeheartedly agree. It's a bit small of a survey to be making such large claims on, but bigger claims have been made with smaller sample sizes and worse methodology... \
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post #8 of 37
We need to see some actual growth in Mac market share. There have been so many of these little blips over the years - surveys say PC users love OS X! The switcher ads are a big hit! The iMac (rev. 1 2 and 3) is a huge hit, attracting PC users in droves! The G5 means Apple's performance disadvantage is over! The retail stores get millions of PC users looking at Macs!

And yet that market share number just stays flat, if not drops. I want to see that actual number increase, not just a predictor of the number.
post #9 of 37
As a "Halo Switcher" myself I can attest to the validity of the research. I received an iPod for Christmas last year, switched to a PowerMac G5 in April, have sinced added a Powerbook 12" to my collection, convinced 4 of my friends to switch, my father has switched, my brother has switched and to top it all off I have convinced my company to make a full-scale switchover - granted there are only 15 of us in the company, but we are not in the design/media related business, we are in an old-school shipping business that is dominated by PCs.

I have gone from a tried and true PC user to an emissary for Apple products, all because of the iPod. The HALO effect is real, regardless of the size of the poll.

My ipod gift has resulted in the trashing of 25 PCs in favor of Macs.

Go Apple. Superior hardware. Superior software. Superior company. Period.

I will NEVER go back to MS.
post #10 of 37
Only 200 users were asked, so the result can hardly be characterized as statistical significant. Only 1 less/more user saying he bought a mac after using the iPod would skew the reult by 0.5%.
post #11 of 37
That's fantastic, lhvide... you made my day!! (and what a first post).

I think/hope the tide is turning but I can't wait for more proof like Ihvide's story.

I recently got a G5 with Cinema display that works perfectly and is an absolute dream to use. But more to the point, visitors that watch me using it are amazed too, and when I say 'Apple' it's like they are suddenly aware of the name (because of iPod) when before it would have gone in one ear, out the other. I thought there was brand awareness before but it's much more now.
post #12 of 37
Sorry, but, Halo Effect?
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post #13 of 37
I guess I'm a 'halo' switcher as well. I used to laugh at Mac owners 6 or 7 years ago (no, don't lynch me, hear me out ) when they stubbornly stuck with their machines when Apple were really struggling and falling behind. Not that I like Windows or PCs, but just because Macs didn't seem like a step forward any more (I was a fan of BeOS at the time having owned a BeBox). But I've kept my eye on them and what they've been doing for the last couple of years, and started to realise that they're onto something again. They're not going to rule the desktop market space anytime soon, if ever. But they don't need to in my opinion, they make great hardware, great software and have an attention to detail and doing things well that I miss from the Be days.

Then a year ago my girlfriend bought me an iPod for my birthday, and I bought a G5 a couple of months ago. I probably wouldn't have bought it if I'd never owned the iPod. So there is some kind of 'halo' effect, but with PCs being replaced every 3-4 years it's not going to happen overnight. But Apple are getting mindshare (and generally very positive at that) and you need that to drive sales beyond your normal customers. People I know who would never have bought anything by Apple are now talking about them as a company to at least take seriously. Even with geeks who used to look down on Macs as something that only 'arty' types would buy because they couldn't work out how to use 'real' computers. Now they're jealous of things just working, having a powerful Unix base, great design, and things being generally very high quality.

It's possible that long time Mac fans don't see this slow transformation on Apple's reputation and image because they're too close to the company and what it does.

Now it all depends on whether Apple can capitalise on the success they're having and translate good reputation into further sales.
post #14 of 37
Quote:
Originally posted by bergz
Sorry, but, Halo Effect?

That reminds me of an old skool racing game for the PC back in the late 80s. A Formel1 variant where you could build your own tracks with loops and everything.

One of the strategies was to get enough momentum to leap from the top of one "ramp" to another and land on the downward side thus gaining a lot of speed. I once did one of those. My screen turned completely white and the engine went to full rpm. Surely it had to be a fault in the coding and I was simply stuck. I waited a minute or so and turned to something else. When I looked back at my screen I had damaged my car which was strange since I had expected I had to restart the computer.

One of the features was a third person view replay (only one person perspective while playing) where you could see your car from the side or looking down on it. Out of curiosity to how the computer had calculated my damage now that it clearly had been stuck I ran the replay. I discovered that I had hit the top of the ramp in a very steep angle and the car had flipped the nose upwards. But that had not been the reason for the malfunction. For instead of just flipping it had continued upwards really really fast and the white I had seen had been nothing but the sky. A rough judgment said it had continued for 10-15 kilometers in a straight line up before it slowed down, the car flipped nose down and reentered the ramp at an extreme speed exactly where it had left the earth.

The file with the replay had a golden time amongst the players of the game here in Denmark. Many tried to copy the act, very few succeded
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post #15 of 37
I wasn't surveyed, but that fits me to a tee. All within the last month!

I purchased an iPod not 4 weeks ago, and then turned around and ordered a 20" iMac G5 last week because of the iPod. At least it pushed me over the edge.


Eric
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post #16 of 37
I'd merely like to add myself to the list of iPod-converted PC users. I bought my iPod earlier this year and since then I've gotten 6 people to get theirs. The superior experience with the product has inspired enough confidence in me to trash my 2.7 GHz P4 this week and get a 15" PowerBook. At least one person I know is considering switching as a direct result of my switch.

"For this my son was dead, and is alive again; he was lost, and is found."
post #17 of 37
The iPod Halo Effect is a lot like the economic multiplier effect. It takes time for an increase in spending to result in continued increases in GDP, sometimes it takes years and years.

I think the halo effect will slowly but surely begin to work. I'd imagine that Apple will sell over a million units in this current quarter.
post #18 of 37
Quote:
Originally posted by BRussell
We need to see some actual growth in Mac market share. There have been so many of these little blips over the years - surveys say PC users love OS X! The switcher ads are a big hit! The iMac (rev. 1 2 and 3) is a huge hit, attracting PC users in droves! The G5 means Apple's performance disadvantage is over! The retail stores get millions of PC users looking at Macs!

And yet that market share number just stays flat, if not drops. I want to see that actual number increase, not just a predictor of the number.

Exactly! And why hasn't that market share increased? Because Apple brass hasn't had the balls to make it happen with lower priced desktops.
Not dirt cheap econo-box prices. Just aggressive competitive pricing.

Just imagine if Macs were to be actually priced equal to PC's with comparable specs. Coupled with the success of iPods, iTMS, and OSX, marketshare could actually move a tick up. But alas, it's Apple we're talking about.
post #19 of 37
I'm really not flamebaiting, believe me. I'm not even a Mac user. But,
Quote:
Just imagine if Macs were to be actually priced equal to PC's with comparable specs

If by "specs" you mean just speed of CPU, buses, hdd, etc, then yes, Apple could throw out "comparable" machines at low prices. But if you take into account case design, not too many PCs are comparable at all. Think about preloaded software also.

I know these are obvious points. I know Apple could start selling a cheaply made plasticky G5 for $1,200. But they won't - and I, for one, respect them for that, market share be damned.
post #20 of 37
Quote:
Originally posted by blabla
Only 200 users were asked, so the result can hardly be characterized as statistical significant. Only 1 less/more user saying he bought a mac after using the iPod would skew the reult by 0.5%.

Yes...and the the sample of 1100 (or so) people used to predict the outcome of the vote of 50 MILLION U.S. votes is statistically insignificant.

(In fact...the 200 number is actually a higher percentage than the number used for presidential election polling!)

Just looking at the number and making the assertion is simply stupid. You have to know much more about the sample, the methodolgy and the questions asked.
post #21 of 37
While all the positive news about the iPod is all well and good, why can't we see a little more excitement on the PowerMac side of things! Let's see a little more innovation on Pro side of things Apple!

Hell, as a graphics pro, that's about the only thing coming out of Apple I do care about!

Cheers!

C.
post #22 of 37
Quote:
Originally posted by BRussell
And yet that market share number just stays flat, if not drops.

I know this is obvious, but just to be clear: the number of Mac users IS growing. In order for the number called "market share" to grow, the Mac market has to not only grow, but grow FASTER than the Windows market. To do that, Apple would have to overcome the fact that their machines stay usable longer and need replacement less often than Windows boxes.

I'm not saying market share isn't at all important, but I'm happy simply knowing that the number of Mac users is increasing daily.

(Also, re pro machines... Apple's iPod success in no way indicates that they have slowed work on other products. The iPod makes a profit--Apple can afford the staff for it without pulling them off of Macs )
post #23 of 37
I'm eager to be optimistic, but remain wary.

Curious: did any of the users who switched due to the "halo effect" hesitate when it was learned one would have to purchase MS Office at full price, for $400? Or did you buy the Student/Teacher edition? Or obtain an illicit copy? Or do you use your Mac for home use -- iLife so forth -- and skipped MS Office, using TextEdit to handle Word documents when necessary? Or was it all no big deal?
post #24 of 37
Quote:
Originally posted by the cool gut
The only thing I'm squeamish about, is that a survey of 200 users isn't a hell of a lot. Regardless, the gauntlet has fallen. There better be evidence of a halo effect in Apple's financials in the near future, or the stock will get hammered.

You must really hate most psychological studies then because many of them use polling of under 100. There are exceptions but 200 is pretty normal for most polls and surveys and in fact is edging the high side.
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post #25 of 37
Quote:
(In fact...the 200 number is actually a higher percentage than the number used for presidential election polling!)

Please explain.. 1100 of the total number of voters is about 0% of the total voters.. 200 is about 0% of the total iPod buyers. In fact, if you got a total population of 100 individuals in a country, and you then ask 1 person about who he will vote for, you have asked a higher percentage than the example you gave. Still, you couldnt give any confidence intervall at all.

Assuming the asked users were picked out without any bias , the survey of 200 users would give about 7% of error!


Quote:

Just looking at the number and making the assertion is simply stupid. You have to know much more about the sample, the methodolgy and the questions asked.

Yes, just because some survey show some good numbers for Apple, the survey is still has to obey the "natural laws" of statistics. Thats why this survey shouldnt be considered more than anecdotical evidence.
post #26 of 37
The only way Apple is going to have a Halo effect, and boost marketshare, is to increase their unit sales. As it stands, their quarterly sales have been stagnating at under one million/qtr. for about 4 years now. They really haven't had much success in the Mac market since the early days of the iMac, which all fizzled when Apple shifted their product line to the G4.

I'm hoping, and wishing Apple makes some gains this quarter and breaks that elusive 1 million barrier that they haven't done in years, and I really think it's going to happen. They're finally firing on all cylinders now and ready to strike, as I see it:

- it seems G5's are in good quantities now, as duals 2.5GHz are available

- a hot new G5 iMac that's clearly better than the outdated, and unavailable (last quarter) G4 iMac

- newly refreshed iBooks

- a lower priced PowerMac (finally!) for those that want a separate monitor and don't have $2000

- refreshed displays that complement their hardware much better

Hopefully Powerbook sales won't dwindle this quarter as I doubt they'll be upgraded before '05, and they're already getting long in the tooth.

Apple stores, a Switch campaign, really haven't done much to help Apple's marketshare, so I'm hoping an iPod halo effect proves true. I guess we'll see next conference call.
post #27 of 37
Quote:
Originally posted by blabla
Thats why this survey shouldnt be considered more than anecdotical evidence.

I agree, and I find the funniest thing about it all is that it's a Wall Street analyst, dammit. It would not look so suspicious or crazy if such claims were made on AppleInsider forums by a 15 y.o. Mac fan.

They call themselves analysts, not speculators or dummies. They are considered experts. This, IMHO, means either:
  • The world has lost its marbles. People have become so blind that every one-eyed man is a visionary. We've become so stupid in general that he who knows how much 2x2 is approximately is a genius.
  • These analysts are simply trying to fool masses into buying Apple stock with an ultimate goal of dispensing with theirs in the most climactic moment.
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post #28 of 37
Quote:
Originally posted by bborofka

Apple stores, a Switch campaign, really haven't done much to help Apple's marketshare, so I'm hoping an iPod halo effect proves true. I guess we'll see next conference call.

I hope so too. 2 million iPods last quarter... anywhere from 2.6 to 4 million projected this quarter - they better be getting some more sell-through on their Macs to accompany the iPods.
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post #29 of 37
Quote:
Originally posted by Hobbes
I'm eager to be optimistic, but remain wary.

Curious: did any of the users who switched due to the "halo effect" hesitate when it was learned one would have to purchase MS Office at full price, for $400? Or did you buy the Student/Teacher edition? Or obtain an illicit copy? Or do you use your Mac for home use -- iLife so forth -- and skipped MS Office, using TextEdit to handle Word documents when necessary? Or was it all no big deal?

A bit steep yes, but I just bought the pro version so that I could get Virtual PC, as I wasn't sure if I could totally separate myself from Windows. I used VPC like 3 times and then deleted it. Wasted some cash, but then I've wasted much more buying Antivirus software, firewalls, fix-its, endless calls to tech support, some of which I had to pay for, time wasted reinstalling software, etc, etc... just to keep windows running at all. I convinced my company to switch based on all of these other unforeseen costs that the windows machine incurs in maintenance. Buying a Mac eliminates all the nonsense and headache and wasted time, $400 bucks for MS office that doesn't crash on a machine that doesn't crash was cheap by comparison
post #30 of 37
Quote:
Originally posted by costique
I agree, and I find the funniest thing about it all is that it's a Wall Street analyst, dammit. It would not look so suspicious or crazy if such claims were made on AppleInsider forums by a 15 y.o. Mac fan.

They call themselves analysts, not speculators or dummies. They are considered experts. This, IMHO, means either:
  • The world has lost its marbles. People have become so blind that every one-eyed man is a visionary. We've become so stupid in general that he who knows how much 2x2 is approximately is a genius.
  • These analysts are simply trying to fool masses into buying Apple stock with an ultimate goal of dispensing with theirs in the most climactic moment.

Believe me. I have made quantitative consumer stratification analysis where the characterization of some of the groups are based on <30 people. Big companies (in my case a company with over 1000000 customers) base their strategies on junk like this.

I told those-in-control that they would be much better served by making one survey per year that was done thoroughly and with much better representation. But they refused it every time. Now I am convinced that it isn´t the results in themselves the companies are interested in but only the flow of numbers. They really don´t care if the numbers are right but only that they have some kind of numbers to go by. The marked analysis dep. love to have more more MORE numbers to analyze (job security) and the bosses feel some kind of security in their decisions. Most of it doesn´t serve a purpose but is a closed system that feeds itself.
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post #31 of 37
Quote:
Originally posted by blabla
Assuming the asked users were picked out without any bias , the survey of 200 users would give about 7% of error!



Ops, what I meant (and correct me if im wrong here) is that with 200 people asked and the outcome space only has 2 possible values (Clearly, this survey got a bigger outcome space, but lets ignore it), the margin of error is 7% (95% confidence interval).
post #32 of 37
Quote:
Originally posted by bergz
Sorry, but, Halo Effect?


awesome video! awesome!
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post #33 of 37
Quote:
Originally posted by Hobbes
I'm eager to be optimistic, but remain wary.

Curious: did any of the users who switched due to the "halo effect" hesitate when it was learned one would have to purchase MS Office at full price, for $400? Or did you buy the Student/Teacher edition? Or obtain an illicit copy? Or do you use your Mac for home use -- iLife so forth -- and skipped MS Office, using TextEdit to handle Word documents when necessary? Or was it all no big deal?

It didn't stop me one bit. I purchased MS Office Pro for $499 from the Apple store. I also picked up FCP.

It only cost a little more to go first class. Except the price of the 20" iMac puts me in the pilots cabin! :eek: I have a Dell notebook computer, Precision M60, that comes with direct support from AutoCad if I should ever have any problems. AutoCad is very important to my business. It is fully loaded and cost almost the same, including the direct support.

I am not complaining about Apple's prices (I did buy one afterall), but they could get their prices adjusted a little lower to make it easier on people like me who buy a new computer every 8 - 12 months but want the best they can afford.

Eric
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post #34 of 37
Quote:
Originally posted by aplnub

I am not complaining about Apple's prices (I did buy one afterall), but they could get their prices adjusted a little lower to make it easier on people like me who buy a new computer every 8 - 12 months but want the best they can afford.

Eric

Apple computers typically hold good resale values on eBay, so when you do upgrade a year down the line it should be a relatively inexpensive upgrade if you decide to go that route.
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post #35 of 37
Quote:
Originally posted by Anders
Now I am convinced that it isn´t the results in themselves the companies are interested in but only the flow of numbers. They really don´t care if the numbers are right but only that they have some kind of numbers to go by.

It looks like market analyses (or what it used to be) is no longer an economic instrument, but a justification for inept management. I often see signs of such an approach in commercial organizations, which makes me think that making money is not their actual business.\

Back to the topic. Even if in reality only 0.1% of iPod buyers went to buy their first Mac, it would be cool, too. Because the iPod division is profitable in itself and because the halo effect, even negligible, comes sort of for free. It's just strange that some dep. heads are resigning on the company's (seeming?) rise.
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post #36 of 37
Quote:
Originally posted by blabla


Ops, what I meant (and correct me if im wrong here) is that with 200 people asked and the outcome space only has 2 possible values (Clearly, this survey got a bigger outcome space, but lets ignore it), the margin of error is 7% (95% confidence interval).

Typically initial estimates for analysis are -50% to +30%. Subsequent estimates narrow that until you have a hopeful final error range of around + or -10 to 15%.

As it happens it doesn't matter in this case if those results are 7% off, which the analyst has assumed they are roughly anyway, the point is growth is expected to be ahead.

Guessing not a lot of people have actually spent any time with analysts. They do actually generate their reports from somewhere but you need to read the fine print and you need to understand the assumptions they make. Where gross errors happen usually has little to do with the survey method and more to do with an incorrect assumption somewhere.
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post #37 of 37
A slashdot reader is writing the same thing as me about this survey:
"Depends on what you define as "decent". At a 99% confidence level, a sample size of 200 means that the margin of error for this survey is +/- 9%. Even if you open it up to a 95% confidence level, the MOE is still +/- 7%. If you wanted to drop the margin of error down to +/- 3% at a 95% confidence level, you'd need a sample size of just over a thousand respondents."
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