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Analyst: 11% of Windows iPod users to buy a Mac

post #1 of 44
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In a research note released to clients on Thursday and obtained by AppleInsider, Needham & Co. analyst Charlie Wolf raised his target price on Apple Computer to $104 a share. The analyst reiterated his assumption that 11% of Windows users owning iPods will purchase a Mac, and notes that sales at the iTunes Music Store have accelerated to a $450 million annual run rate. "The increase in music sales in combination with a decrease in peripheral sales in our revised model raises Apple's overall gross profits because music sales are much more profitable than peripheral sales," Wolf said. In addition to raising its Apple price target from $83 to $104, the firm also raised its earnings per share estimates from $1.85 to $2.00 in fiscal 2005, and from $2.25 to $2.50 in 2006. Needham maintains a 'Buy' rating on Apple.
post #2 of 44
Music sales are more profitable than peripheral sales?
post #3 of 44
I think 450M is a revenue number. Multiply by 0.05 and you get the money Apple actually sees (22.5M), and then realize that much of that goes into costs. The online music business is a tough one, and Apple uses it to drive iPod sales, which drive hardware sales.

If online music were easy, everyone would be succeeding at it instead of falling of the bandwagon so damn hard.
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post #4 of 44
Quote:
Originally posted by BRussell
Music sales are more profitable than peripheral sales?

That statement struck me as odd too.

Doesn't Apple pocket something like $.02 for each song they sell?
post #5 of 44
Quote:
Originally posted by schmidm77
That statement struck me as odd too.

Doesn't Apple pocket something like $.02 for each song they sell?

It's not that low and the original estimates were based on MUCH lower volume of music sales. The volume Apple is selling now and is on pace to sell is astonishing and is making the Music Store a money maker in itself.
post #6 of 44
when Ipod sales dry up the music store will still be going strong.

And the Movie store still yet to come.
post #7 of 44
How many Windows iPod users are there? What does that 11percent translate to as a rough number?
post #8 of 44
Quote:
Originally posted by Guartho
How many Windows iPod users are there? What does that 11percent translate to as a rough number?

Apple won't really say, or rather, doesn't break it down. But now that Apple is only shipping with USB 2.0 cables, it appears enough to cater to the PC crowd. Based on the latest Q1 numbers, and some simple addition on my part, I figured the total sales of ipods to be around 7 million. Based on old figures of PCs in the household from about 2003, there was an estimated 110 million people with a computer. Which equates to there being about 7% of ipods per computer or 7 million ipods total. Factor in the marketshare for Macs at 2% and you get about 140,000 iPods in use by Mac users, and 6,860,000 iPods in use by PC users. 11% of the PC user base equates to roughly 754,600 switchers...

Though it has been a long day, and I may be waaaaay off on this math, but whatever....If anyone can do better, by all means, have at it...
post #9 of 44
Quote:
Originally posted by ijerry
11% of the PC user base equates to roughly 754,600 switchers...

Though it has been a long day, and I may be waaaaay off on this math, but whatever....If anyone can do better, by all means, have at it...

Methinks your math is waaaay off, or at least waaay off

At Macworld, Jobs held up the 10 millionth iPod. Sales estimates for this year (based on analysts) are 26 million units. And people think the iPod is ubiquitous *now*.

If we're measuring just the halo effect from these 26 million units we're looking at 2-2.5 million switchers.
post #10 of 44
I'm one of that number.
post #11 of 44
Quote:
Originally posted by macslut
Methinks your math is waaaay off, or at least waaay off

At Macworld, Jobs held up the 10 millionth iPod. Sales estimates for this year (based on analysts) are 26 million units. And people think the iPod is ubiquitous *now*.

If we're measuring just the halo effect from these 26 million units we're looking at 2-2.5 million switchers.

over a million+ switchers in 2005 would totally kick ass. that would pretty much give apple a tough time pumping out Mac minis and iMacs to keep up with demand for the rest of 2005.

AUSTRALIA has seen a 49% JUMP IN MAC SALES
http://www.macobserver.com/article/2005/02/21.9.shtml
post #12 of 44
Since I got a 3G iPod in our family alone ther have been 4 switchers

I have always been a strong advocate of Apple but people don't beleave you untill they can actually see the proof.

Father PC to 12"pb and iPod
Father-In-Law PC to 17"pb and iPod
Uncle PC to 15"pb
Father-In -Law's partner (business) PC to 17"pb

The interesting thing is its all Poweboooks and ALL have seen the OS and now rave about the diference in quality, stability and ease of use.

I even get mocking e-mail from them when they get a e-mail virus alert for windows.

Thank you iPod you have made my "Family Tecnical Support" role 1000% easier.

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post #13 of 44
Quote:
Originally posted by johnrp
*snip*

Thank you iPod [and Apple] you have made my "Family Tecnical Support" role 1000% easier.

j.

dude, totally. in the late 90's i had to do tech support for me parents from halfway around the world, and only during holidays would i visit them, and 50% of the time at home with them would be fixing, defraging, backing up, installing antivirus for them

one year a PC virus completely wrecked a hard disk... and maybe the motherboard too... that was seriously whack, my brother and i were thousands of miles away so couldn't help them

1+ year ago my brother (older, richer brother) gave my dad an iBook G4 933mhz... tech support calls stopped.... then we had to talk about real issues like when am i going to get a real job, if i have a partner/soulmate, if i am eating well, if i am not into anything 'weird', etc.
damn they shouldhave stuck with a pee cee
post #14 of 44
*Raises hand* Switched.

My 2001-esque black monolith p4 3.0HT sits silently beside me as I gaze upon my Mac mini with iPod photo docked (making 3... 3!! iMovies right now - one for dad's soccer club, one for work, one for a wedding vid)

My iBook is charging no less than two feet away. My 3rd Gen iPod did it. I dove in headfirst and it's been refreshing. 11 Percent? At the very least.
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post #15 of 44
Quote:
Originally posted by grahamw
*Raises hand* Switched.

My 2001-esque black monolith p4 3.0HT sits silently beside me as I gaze upon my Mac mini with iPod photo docked (making 3... 3!! iMovies right now - one for dad's soccer club, one for work, one for a wedding vid)

My iBook is charging no less than two feet away. My 3rd Gen iPod did it. I dove in headfirst and it's been refreshing. 11 Percent? At the very least.

dude, sweet, that's excellent living proof that having a "PENTIUM 4 3.0GHZ HyperThreading" means jack all compared to ease-of-use and productivity. the gigaherz wars are pretty much dead and meaningless now. enjoy your Mac mini...!!! yeah
post #16 of 44
people switching to the mac...that's cool i guess. i don't want more than a 1 or 2% increase in market share though. the last thing i want to have to worry about as a mac user is viruses and other nonsense that come with having a massively popular computer platform. i think we're a ways off from that and i enjoy the increasing software selection in the meantime.

plus, there's the whole elitist thing
post #17 of 44
Quote:
Originally posted by progmac
people switching to the mac...that's cool i guess. i don't want more than a 1 or 2% increase in market share though. the last thing i want to have to worry about as a mac user is viruses and other nonsense that come with having a massively popular computer platform. i think we're a ways off from that and i enjoy the increasing software selection in the meantime.

plus, there's the whole elitist thing

so you'd want max 5% market share? i'm willing to see how 10% market share works out
post #18 of 44
If Apple ships out a higher volume of computers does that mean we will see the prices for machines come down?

They will probably milk this thing raw though.
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post #19 of 44
As a shareholder, I'm all for the milkage.
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post #20 of 44
newsflash- there are viruses for macs, just few and far between. Its just unrealistic to think No one would make a virus fro a platform used by a decent number of people, granted that percent is not anything close to that of pc's but still,

I just made the switch (well, my pb ships tomorrow according to them) so.
post #21 of 44
Quote:
Originally posted by humanfellow
If Apple ships out a higher volume of computers does that mean we will see the prices for machines come down?

They will probably milk this thing raw though.

probably the latter... publicly traded company + high valued share price = profits, profits, profits as primary goal
post #22 of 44
Quote:
Originally posted by kernel843
newsflash- there are viruses for macs, just few and far between. Its just unrealistic to think No one would make a virus fro a platform used by a decent number of people, granted that percent is not anything close to that of pc's but still,

I just made the switch (well, my pb ships tomorrow according to them) so.

name em.
post #23 of 44
Quote:
Originally posted by macslut
At Macworld, Jobs held up the 10 millionth iPod. Sales estimates for this year (based on analysts) are 26 million units. And people think the iPod is ubiquitous *now*.

Sorry to bring a pin to our hot-air balloon, but really. Who amongst you think this bubble will never ever burst, or at least continue totally unabated? Analysts drink the Kool-Aid, I understand, but could Apple produce 26 million iPods, much less sell them?
post #24 of 44
Viruses for OS X? Uh... no. Seriously, they're not far and few between, they simply aren't.

As per Douglas Adams, if we were to travel into the future and then from there into the past to become our own parents we would willon not haven viruses on Mac OS X.
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post #25 of 44
Quote:
Originally posted by kernel843
newsflash- there are viruses for macs, just few and far between. Its just unrealistic to think No one would make a virus fro a platform used by a decent number of people, granted that percent is not anything close to that of pc's but still,

I just made the switch (well, my pb ships tomorrow according to them) so.

Still waiting for that OS X virus list...
post #26 of 44
if no virus' existed, why would there be several anti-virus programs out there, besides the obvious reason to make money?

Simple google search found this artivle about one @ thealders.net

"A new virus targeting Mac OS X is not expected to cause much trouble. But malcode experts said it should serve as a warning to those using alternatives to Microsoft that their machines are not attack-proof.
I dont see this particular virus as much of a threat, but I worry about the functionality of it, said Mikko Hypponen, director of antivirus research for Finnish antivirus firm F-Secure Corp. It shows theres a lot of activity in the underground hacking community to find ways to attack Macintosh systems.
The virus, known as Opener or Renopo, attempts to turn off the Mac OS X firewall and other security software. It will download and install hacker tools for password-sniffing and cracking, make key system directories world-writeable and create an admin-level user for later system abuse, according to Lynnfield, Mass.-based antivirus firm Sophos. It also turns off accounting and logging functions to help hide its presence, the company said.
Mac users tend to be zealous about how their computers are more attack-proof than Microsoft systems, and this virus illustrates thats not really the case, said Graham Cluley, senior technology consultant for Sophos. There have always been viruses that target Macintosh, just fewer. This virus isnt a pressing danger. But its a shot across the bow for Mac users, a warning that they cant turn a blind eye to security.

or this article http://www.macworld.com/news/2004/10...ener/index.php


Once again my point is just they do exist, just like we could all die from small pox. Is it going to happen? Probably not.
post #27 of 44
Quote:
Originally posted by kernel843

The virus, known as Opener or Renopo, attempts to turn off the Mac OS X firewall and other security software. It will download and install hacker tools for password-sniffing and cracking, make key system directories world-writeable and create an admin-level user for later system abuse, according to Lynnfield,

So it gives Mac the same holes that windows users have enjoyed for years...w00t w00t
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post #28 of 44
Quote:
Originally posted by kernel843
if no virus' existed, why would there be several anti-virus programs out there, besides the obvious reason to make money?

stop right there
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post #29 of 44
Quote:
Originally posted by Guartho
How many Windows iPod users are there? What does that 11percent translate to as a rough number?

I'd say about one or two in every ten Windows users, so, perhaps Apple's market share could come up to 6%.
post #30 of 44
Quote:
Originally posted by kernel843
...
The virus, known as Opener or Renopo, attempts to
...
Once again my point is just they do exist, just like we could all die from small pox. Is it going to happen? Probably not.

Opener isn't a virus. It is a root kit which can't do any harm without root access.

If somebody has root access to your computer, they can already just delete stuff anyway.

There are still no Mac OS X viruses. Someday there will be one, but as of today, there are none!


iPod + no viruses = switchers
post #31 of 44
Just wanted to second the "Opener is not a virus" point.

Rootkit = teh suxx0rs. However, there is no spyware or backdoor access to a Mac. It's difficult to get your Mac into a situation where it is this exposed - Root, by default, is turned off.

Rootkits on Windows? Prevalent and suddenly a big issue. Microsoft has declared in the last few weeks that some of these rootkits are so severly embedded that a format and reinstall is the *only* way of restoring system operation.

It's one of the reasons I switched. I can't be hell damn ass bothered to deal with this bull hockey on a daily basis.
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post #32 of 44
i dunno i'm not gonna argue, and this thread is getting off topic, i just think its impossible to think NO ONE has ever made a virus for OS X, anywhere, EVER. Just my .02. Now everyone quote this and disagree............
post #33 of 44
We live in an information age. Your very online existence is steeped in bits and bytes of knowledge.

GOOGLE IT.

EOD.
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post #34 of 44
i did and in 2 seconds i listed 2 articles which immediately got shot down by the mac gods, SURPRISE SURPRISE, apple users not wanting to admit OS X is not the second coming? shocker.

And yeah, i am (well will be as of wed.) a mac owner, but one that doesn't think anything is perfect.

EOD.
post #35 of 44
Quote:
Originally posted by Placebo
I'd say about one or two in every ten Windows users, so, perhaps Apple's market share could come up to 6%.

I'd go even further and say there are Windows users who will never buy an iPod but will get a mac anyway, because of all the exposure Apple is getting now. I'm sure there are plenty of folk who don't want an MP3 player or can't afford one, but saw an iPod - maybe tried it - and are now looking at macs.
post #36 of 44
Quote:
Originally posted by kernel843
i did and in 2 seconds i listed 2 articles which immediately got shot down by the mac gods, SURPRISE SURPRISE, apple users not wanting to admit OS X is not the second coming? shocker.

And yeah, i am (well will be as of wed.) a mac owner, but one that doesn't think anything is perfect.

EOD.

kernel843, your Mac experience complemented with your knowledge, both of which will hopefully continue to grow, will be the final deciding factor on whether at the end of the day your happier, feel more 'secure' and 'productive' on a mac, and whether you have more peace of mind (buy the full 3 year Applecare if you plan on keeping your mac longer than 1 year!!)

so you will be the best judge of your experience at the end of the day... appleinsider forums are generally not too caustic if you just ask for info, not opinions, get our side of the story, get our info, get your own info, and you can formulate your own opinions

enjoy your new mac!! yay!! enjoy the fresh plastic smell and taking it out of the box... that is one of THE mac experiences
post #37 of 44
Quote:
Originally posted by kernel843
i dunno i'm not gonna argue, and this thread is getting off topic, i just think its impossible to think NO ONE has ever made a virus for OS X, anywhere, EVER. Just my .02. Now everyone quote this and disagree............

then don't make uneducated comments such as this
Quote:
newsflash- there are viruses for macs, just few and far between. Its just unrealistic to think No one would make a virus fro a platform used by a decent number of people, granted that percent is not anything close to that of pc's but still,
post #38 of 44
Congrats on joining the community.

Be brave - don't run Virex I don't. I won't. And it doesn't concern me a lick.

Actually, I'll make you a deal: If you contract a virus on OS X - I'll personally fly out to where ever you are, recover your data, restore your system, pay for a full copy of whatever virus software would have protected you from it AND I'll buy you dinner.

If that ain't a bold offer, I don't know what is
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post #39 of 44
Quote:
Originally posted by grahamw
Congrats on joining the community.

Be brave - don't run Virex I don't. I won't. And it doesn't concern me a lick.

Actually, I'll make you a deal: If you contract a virus on OS X - I'll personally fly out to where ever you are, recover your data, restore your system, pay for a full copy of whatever virus software would have protected you from it AND I'll buy you dinner.

If that ain't a bold offer, I don't know what is

way to go grahamw... work on those Switchers baby, yeah

...personally i am running virex 7.5.1 because
1. it is free with my .Mac membership
2. i sleep 5% better at night* knowing that not only is it 99%** unlikely that my Mac will not get a virus, with virex that goes up to 99.999%** unlikely that my Mac will not get a virus


*disclaimer1: hey, it's just me, but you can't put a price on a good night's sleep and peace of mind

**disclaimer2: these figures are pulled out of my azz and have not been verified by independent testing whatsoever.
post #40 of 44
grahamw

you are the daddy,

But seriously is it not just a matter of time ? It's not going to be some massive thing like the Windows boys are used to more like the worm we had all those years ago.

I think the difference is that Apple will have done everything they can to prevent this happening in the first place AND if it does they will not be charging for the software to plug the security hole (if there is one).

or am I wrong and there will never be a virus on osx (something that I find hard to beleave)

j.
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