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Originally posted by DCQ
I've said this before, but I may as well say it again.
Apple announced "Intel-only" and "OS X only on Macs" because it is being prudent. They want to be able to make sure that OS X is ultra stable in x86. My guess is that during the transition, (roughly March 06 - July 07), they will begin "certifying" various hardware with a "Works with Macs" logo program (or even "Designed for Macs"
!). Mostly these will be various PCIe cards. And their drivers will be available from Apple (apple.com and SWU) or the manufacturer. Within 12 months of the switch, Apple will begin offering AMD chips as well. The Mac will be indistinguishable from an Intel box, except that the Apple's will be much more elegant. Then the magic moment will come when the "OS X only on Macs" will go away. The new switcher box will go from being a Mac mini ($499) to being a box of OS X ($129) installed on a Dell.
I've said this before, but I may as well say it again.
Apple announced "Intel-only" and "OS X only on Macs" because it is being prudent. They want to be able to make sure that OS X is ultra stable in x86. My guess is that during the transition, (roughly March 06 - July 07), they will begin "certifying" various hardware with a "Works with Macs" logo program (or even "Designed for Macs"
!). Mostly these will be various PCIe cards. And their drivers will be available from Apple (apple.com and SWU) or the manufacturer. Within 12 months of the switch, Apple will begin offering AMD chips as well. The Mac will be indistinguishable from an Intel box, except that the Apple's will be much more elegant. Then the magic moment will come when the "OS X only on Macs" will go away. The new switcher box will go from being a Mac mini ($499) to being a box of OS X ($129) installed on a Dell.Well, I've said this before and I'll say it again. Don't expect Macs on Intel to magically bring on a whole new hardware market we don't already have. Your example about PCIe cards is a good example. There's nothing about apple going intel that implies or aides in getting more video card support than apple has now. Nothing. Drivers still need to be written for the OS, not the chip-set. And Apple will NOT distribute drivers for cards they don't sell bundled. You're not going to get an ATI x300 from NewEgg.com, and then get a magical driver from Apple that will let it run. ATI will need to provide those (just like they have to now).
And, going on your later mail, you're next switcher box isn't going to be a Dell with OS X installed if Dell doesn't license the OS. You might think everyone wants to go out, get a computer, then go out, buy an OS, and try to update the computer to the new OS, but most people will NOT do this.
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What about the need for hardware dollars? Well I for one don't see Apple's revenue falling. Perhaps lots of people will buy Dells or DIY boxen and a copy of OSX. Certainly geeks like us will. But the average users like my parents and parents-in-law don't like doing anything weird to their computers. They'll buy Macs with OSX installed. But even if you do see a hardware catastrophe for Apple in terms of CPUs sales on the horizon, Apple will not die. Why? Digital hub, digital spokes, digital lifestyle products of course. The iPod is showing Apple the way. Slightly modified minis (with 5.1 output and HDMI) attached to a 30-inch display or an HDTV, iPods, Airport Express, iSights, (and a remote for it all), iTunes, etc. All linked with iMacs and *Books all over the house. (Stream TV to any one of them.) PowerMacs will be the choice for businesses and artists (graphics, movies, music, etc.) wanting Macs.
Oh, what a dream. "Apple's revenue won't fall, even though lots of people will buy dell." Exactly how does Apple's revenue not fall when everyone but your parents aren't buying their computers.
Apple will only allow OS X on Dells if AND ONLY IF they can determine they will make more money from OS licensing then they would trying to sell their hardware. And they make a ton of money from hardware right now (as I read last week, last quarter, they earned $2-3billion from computer sales, $200 million from software). And companies and businesses that care on how they spend cash will easily spend money on cheaper dells and a copy of OS X. Esp. if they can get two Dells for the price of one overpriced Mac.
Apple might not die because they have digital hub devices (um, they only have one now, though, so they better get going if they plan on making money and following your schedule), but these aren't big money devices. The iPod sells well, but its a low-revenue product, so a million a quarter only maxes out at $500million, and is probably more like $250-300 million in revenues. Tivo has a hell of a product, and they're still trying to turn a profit. Grand schemes, but why get any of these pieces, when I can buy a cheaper Dell mini with 7.1 and HD output, hooked to my Dell laptops all around the house?
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When OS X's marketshare begins to grow to 5-10% (which it will), MS will start showing its teeth. Luckily, MS Office is no longer the "killer app" it was in the 90s. Apple is probably just weeks away from being able to annouce a full-blown office suite that would meet the needs of 90% of businesses out there, and would be much more elegant, simple, (and therefore productive) than MS Office. (Not that it will announce one anytime soon. But iWork will get a spreadsheet in its next iteration ('06), and by '07 or '08 it will be a pretty nice piece of software. And by that time, it's only a step away from buffing iWork, Mail, Address Book, iCal, iChat into "Pro" versions, integrating them with Filemaker, and shrinkwrapping the whole thing. Charge a fiver for an unlimited liscence and voila.)
Office is still the defacto, you can't get passed that, no matter how hard you try.
And is it weeks away or 07 or 08? Which is it. And that's funny, saying they'll have an office killer. They already did. It was called AppleWorks. But then Apple killed it. And no one used it instead of office, anyway. And now iWork is so far behind in features people need for work, they have a long way to go to kill office (sorry, but ask anyone who actually writes large documents, Pages has too many holes and issues, mainly because its a Pagemaker replacement, not a Word replacement). And it takes Apple forever to update its apps (how long was it to get Keynote 2.0?) that you don't know whether they ever will update it or let it die. I know with keynote there was lots of speculation whether it was being EOL'd after version 1.
Oh, and you're brilliant idea for Apple to make money is to take pieces that are currently free, make them better (or, as some would argue, make them usable and fix their current slate of problems) and bundle them into an application. Yeah, that's a great idea. No one would complain about that, I'm sure. Just like no one complains about a new OS X version fixing bugs apple never fixed in previous versions.







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