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Apple's Q4 Mac sales ahead of expectations?

post #1 of 16
Thread Starter 
Wall Street analyst Shaw Wu on Tuesday raised his estimates and price target on Apple Computer stock, citing better than expected Mac sales during the back-to-school shopping season.

"In our checks with industry and channel sources, we believe Mac sales are coming in ahead of expectations," the analyst said in a research note released to clients. "We believe that Apple is benefiting from a strong back-to-school period where students need a personal computer today, and Macs remain the preferred PC platform for managing documents, music, photos, and videos."

Although Apple's transition to Intel processors remains a risk, Wu believes the impact so far has been negligible. "We believe Mac momentum will likely carry into the December quarter," he added.

As a result, Wu and his firm American Technology Research raised their estimates and price target for Apple. For the September quarter, the firm is now now modeling 1.38 million Macs, $3.7 billion in revenue, and 39 cents in earnings per share (EPS), up from previous estimates of 1.32 million Macs, $3.6 billion in revenue, and 36 cents EPS.

For fiscal years '05 and '06, Amtech Research is now is modeling earnings of $1.46 and $1.70, up from $1.44 and $1.60 respectively. Additionally, the firm upped its price target on Apple from $42 to $45.

Commenting on iPod nano sales, Wu said his checks continue to indicate good, but not great, iPod nano sales.

"Black nanos are selling well, while white nanos continue to lag." The analyst added: "We are hearing that Apple grossly underestimated demand for the $249 black 4GB iPod nano and is realigning its supply chain to meet this demand dynamic."

Wu made no changes to his 7.1 million iPod unit forecast for Apple's fourth quarter and continues to rate Apple stock as "Hold."
post #2 of 16
For those who love the market share race. 4.5% US is growth. However slow it is. I read another report which stated several Apple stores have sold out of iBooks during this back to school season.

But I don't see it possible for Apple to drop MS 90% marketshare by itself. This will need to be a coordinated assault with Linux and OS X in the lead.

Linux and OS X need to identify a part of the market and become the best system for that market. While MS continues to try to be everything to everybody.
post #3 of 16
Quote:
Originally posted by TenoBell
For those who love the market share race. 4.5% US is growth. However slow it is. I read another report which stated several Apple stores have sold out of iBooks during this back to school season.

But I don't see it possible for Apple to drop MS 90% marketshare by itself. This will need to be a coordinated assault with Linux and OS X in the lead.

Linux and OS X need to identify a part of the market and become the best system for that market. While MS continues to try to be everything to everybody.

I gots a feeling a that beyond a certain point, the damage to MS will be irreversible. I don't know what the magic market share number would be but I'd say it would be between 7-12%. If OS X and Linux can work together, to chip away at MS's market share, they have a chance to topple MS.

Beyond a certain point, developers (game developers come to mind) will be more willing to port their apps/games to the Mac...with performance that is on par with PCs, I think the iPod/Intel/developers/market share combination will just continue to increase the Mac market share.

It shouldn't take much to tip the scale. I mean, iPod started at 0% market share and look at where it is now. Word of mouth. Now that Apple logo is in everyone's hands, I don't think it would take much for it to be on everyone's desks or laps.
post #4 of 16
While the share price estimates are still strangely lower than they should be, at least Wu is FINALLY beginning to get with the program.

I've been saying since June that most consumers aren't even aware that Apple doesn't use an Intel chip now. They also don't care.

They are, in a way, much smarter than the rest of us who do care.

As most of Apple's sales are in markets where cpu type simply doesn't matter, the sales shouldn't be affected.

I do think that as we get close to the turn-over, which Jobs again stated today will happen "by June 2006", we will see a drop, but then a quick pick-up as the new machines come out.
post #5 of 16
Quote:

Wall Street analyst Shaw Wu on Tuesday raised his estimates and price target on Apple Computer stock, citing better than expected Mac sales during the back-to-school shopping season.

Additionally, the firm upped its price target on Apple from $42 to $45.

Wu made no changes to his 7.1 million iPod unit forecast for Apple's fourth quarter and continues to rate Apple stock as "Hold."

Translation of Wall Street linguo:

Hold = Sell your stock.

Price target of $45 for a stock unit while today's mid day price is $53.35. Back to school sales are good because of the "Back to School Essentials" promotion where students get a free iPod mini with every Mac CPU.

"Hurry - Offer ends September 24"
post #6 of 16
Quote:
Originally posted by ouragan
Translation of Wall Street linguo:

Hold = Sell your stock.

Price target of $45 for a stock unit while today's mid day price is $53.35. Back to school sales are good because of the "Back to School Essentials" promotion where students get a free iPod mini with every Mac CPU.

"Hurry - Offer ends September 24"

Yeah, but Wu's stock price estimates have been so off course for so long that I discount his estimates.

Gene at Piper has been pretty much on the mark. Over the past 18 months that I've been watching him, he's been ahead of the crowd. Almost a year ago he said that Apple would hit $100 around the end of 2005. The price as of a minute ago on my real time account with the market dogging for the day right now is (pre-split equiv.) $106.40. According to Wu back then it would be $45.

Edit to add;

Apple's P/E has most always been much higher than industry averages. Wu doesn't allow for that. Gene and other do to differing extents.
post #7 of 16
This would explain no new Macs at the Expo. You don't release new products 2 weeks before the end of the quarter if you you are already going to beat expectations. Jobs pulling out would have been about the right time for forecasts to predict the strong quarter.
post #8 of 16
Quote:
Originally posted by MacTitan
This would explain no new Macs at the Expo. You don't release new products 2 weeks before the end of the quarter if you you are already going to beat expectations. Jobs pulling out would have been about the right time for forecasts to predict the strong quarter.

plus he lied about those "great new powerpc products" in the pipeline so he's got no great new powerpc products to show for a few months just a powerbook/powermac bump in oct/nov for the pros looking to buy themselves a nice christmas present, maybe they got bonuses, etc...... so jul-sep 2005 will be yet another record breaking quarter, which will be then further demolished by the all-time-high apple christmas 2005 (oct-dec 2005) quarter?
post #9 of 16
Quote:
Originally posted by sunilraman
plus he lied about those "great new powerpc products" in the pipeline so he's got no great new powerpc products to show for a few months just a powerbook/powermac bump in oct/nov for the pros looking to buy themselves a nice christmas present...

Oh not this again. \ Apple still has lots time for the new PowerPC products. It won't be till ~ July 06 for an inteli mini and the inteli PM will be months after that.
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Why do so many Sys Admins hate the Mac? . A q u a M a c .
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post #10 of 16
*edit* i was just saying, whatever powerpc products come out, in general, the mac faithful will not consider it "great". it will be "new", fair enough, but i reserve judgement on whether it is "great", which, it may not be 8)
post #11 of 16
RE: Nano sales.

Many are saying Nano sales are average. But appearantly the 4GB Nano has gone to 2 week wait on the Apple Online Store.

Given Steve said they had made a bunch to go on sale the announce day and that they were shipping same day 2 weeks ago, I take this as a sign they are selling well.

One explanation for the other reports: emss they are all based on calls to Apple stores to see about their stocks. This ha beens a good sign in the past since Apple is never ready to ship en masse when a product is annouced. However if they were this time the stock in store may just be a sign Apple is shipping the products into the channel as a rate close to consumer demand.
post #12 of 16
Quote:
Originally posted by salmonstk
RE: Nano sales.

Many are saying Nano sales are average. But appearantly the 4GB Nano has gone to 2 week wait on the Apple Online Store.

Given Steve said they had made a bunch to go on sale the announce day and that they were shipping same day 2 weeks ago, I take this as a sign they are selling well.

One explanation for the other reports: emss they are all based on calls to Apple stores to see about their stocks. This ha beens a good sign in the past since Apple is never ready to ship en masse when a product is annouced. However if they were this time the stock in store may just be a sign Apple is shipping the products into the channel as a rate close to consumer demand.

"Many" haven't been saying that Nano sales are average. A couple have said that.

Jobs also said that Apple has a factory set just making Nano's. He said that unlike the past, Apple has made much more upon introduction this time.
post #13 of 16
Quote:
Originally posted by ouragan
Translation of Wall Street linguo:

Hold = Sell your stock.

If that's true, what they mean when they say "sell"? Is that Wall Street lingo for seppu-ku?
post #14 of 16
Quote:
Originally posted by JeffDM
If that's true, what they mean when they say "sell"? Is that Wall Street lingo for seppu-ku?

"Sell" is wall street for "If you still have it, you're screwed! But don't worry, we got rid of ours before we changed the ranking."

And "Hold" basically is short-hand for "If you're thinking of selling your stock because you need the cash, want to take a profit, want to invest in something else, now's a good time, because it ain't going to be moving for a while. But it ain't going down, either, so if you can wait to get your money, feel free to hold onto it (just don't blame us if the stock goes down later, because I'm sure its because you should know 'hold' means 'sell', just like when a girl says no, she means "you touch me again, I'm kicking you in the groin, spraying you with pepper spray, and getting my football player brother to use you as a tackling dummy", or at least that's what it meant when I was in school ---- ah, good times, good times)."
post #15 of 16
Quote:
Originally posted by Louzer
"Sell" is wall street for "If you still have it, you're screwed! But don't worry, we got rid of ours before we changed the ranking."

And "Hold" basically is short-hand for "If you're thinking of selling your stock because you need the cash, want to take a profit, want to invest in something else, now's a good time, because it ain't going to be moving for a while. But it ain't going down, either, so if you can wait to get your money, feel free to hold onto it (just don't blame us if the stock goes down later, because I'm sure its because you should know 'hold' means 'sell', just like when a girl says no, she means "you touch me again, I'm kicking you in the groin, spraying you with pepper spray, and getting my football player brother to use you as a tackling dummy", or at least that's what it meant when I was in school ---- ah, good times, good times)."

Yup! EXACTLY right!
post #16 of 16
Quote:
Originally posted by Louzer
"Sell" is wall street for "If you still have it, you're screwed! But don't worry, we got rid of ours before we changed the ranking."

And "Hold" basically is short-hand for "If you're thinking of selling your stock because you need the cash, want to take a profit, want to invest in something else, now's a good time, because it ain't going to be moving for a while. But it ain't going down, either, so if you can wait to get your money, feel free to hold onto it (just don't blame us if the stock goes down later, because I'm sure its because you should know 'hold' means 'sell', just like when a girl says no, she means "you touch me again, I'm kicking you in the groin, spraying you with pepper spray, and getting my football player brother to use you as a tackling dummy", or at least that's what it meant when I was in school ---- ah, good times, good times)."

best post in this thread..!
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