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Apple may sell 10 million iPod nanos this quarter

post #1 of 19
Thread Starter 
Apple may produce and sell more than 10 million of its new iPod nano digital music players during the three month period ending in December, says UBS Investment Research.

For Apple's quarter ending in June -- the last fiscal quarter in which it has released results -- the company sold a combined total of 6,155,000 iPods, which is the most iPods its ever shipped in a single quarter.

UBS had been modeling Apple to sell 8.3 million total iPods in the December quarter, but recently met with industry sources in Asia who said those estimates may prove to be conservative. The firm's sources indicate iPod nano build orders for the quarter could exceed 10 million units. Apple sells various other iPod models which would only add to this figure.

"In short, our meetings were very positive for Apple into year-end and next, in terms of potential new iPods and possible build plans," said analyst Ben Reitzes in a research note released to clients on Monday.

The Wall Street analyst believes an increase in expected iPod sales could add as much as 10 cents to consensus earnings-per-share estimates for the quarter, which are currently at 45 cents.

Meanwhile, Reitzes also believes Apple may produce a new hard disk drive (HDD)-based iPod before the end of the year.

"Our checks back recent reports that a handheld device capable of video playback could be in the works," the analyst said. "We would expect possible new devices to be HDD-based and look a bit like a larger white iPod with a bigger color screen."

However, UBS estimates Apple will sell only 4.5 million HDD-based iPods in fiscal year 2006, which would be down 30% year-over-year, due primarily to potential cannibalization from flash based players such as the nano.

UBS also said it sees momentum building for Apple's portables and iMacs:

"Our checks in Asia back this view, implying that sales of portables for Apple (particularly iBooks) are solid, which could make our estimates for overall Mac growth of 41% in 4Q05 and 28% in 1Q06 look
conservative," the firm said.

UBS continues to rate Apple a "Buy" with a price target of $64.
post #2 of 19
Where's MacFanDave? This'll make him happy.
post #3 of 19
It seems that the G4 iBook has some life left. No mention of the PB though, I wonder how that is doing. Last quarter its sales grew 16%.

It's good that the news about the iMacs continues to be solid as it isn't cheap by todays standards.
post #4 of 19
I'll be impressed if Apple comes up with a way to make a video-focused handheld device into something with broad appeal and usefuless. I don't see it happening.

So I don't expext a "video iPod," but maybe video will be added as an "extra" to the music-focussed iPod line. A bigger screen would certainly be nice, video or not.

On the Mac front... weren't Mac sales supposed to plummet in the months leading up to the Intel Mac sales rush? I certainly predicted a slump--a necessary price to pay, and well worth it. But nothing nearly as dire as people expected seems to have happened.
post #5 of 19
Quote:
Originally posted by nagromme
I'll be impressed if Apple comes up with a way to make a video-focused handheld device into something with broad appeal and usefuless. I don't see it happening.

So I don't expext a "video iPod," but maybe video will be added as an "extra" to the music-focussed iPod line. A bigger screen would certainly be nice, video or not.

On the Mac front... weren't Mac sales supposed to plummet in the months leading up to the Intel Mac sales rush? I certainly predicted a slump--a necessary price to pay, and well worth it. But nothing nearly as dire as people expected seems to have happened.

Yeah, well our friend Rob Enderely said that according to a report that he wasn't allowed to mention the name of, Apples cpu sales had "tanked" this quarter.

But "Mr. Microsoft" is usually wrong about Apple anyway.

I do think that Apple's cpu sales might drop, or not increase much in the January-March quarter, as we get closed to the intro, and that quarter is normally their slowest anyway.

The April-June quarter will be hit the most if no Intel machine shows up before the conference in June. I would expect that simply because everyone interested always waits when they know that new models are coming out and Apple has not filled the distribution channels with the old machines.
post #6 of 19
obviously, since they only last about 2 years.
post #7 of 19
Quote:
Originally posted by melgross
Yeah, well our friend Rob Enderely said that according to a report that he wasn't allowed to mention the name of, Apples cpu sales had "tanked" this quarter.

But "Mr. Microsoft" is usually wrong about Apple anyway.

I do think that Apple's cpu sales might drop, or not increase much in the January-March quarter, as we get closed to the intro, and that quarter is normally their slowest anyway.

The April-June quarter will be hit the most if no Intel machine shows up before the conference in June. I would expect that simply because everyone interested always waits when they know that new models are coming out and Apple has not filled the distribution channels with the old machines.


It is beyond me how someone like Enderely continues to stay in the business of analysis. I've seen him many times on the local TV news, suggesting he has some notoriety. I guess all you have to do is call yourself an analysist and, right or wrong, people start to listen to you. I guess he is following in Dvorak's footsteps.
post #8 of 19
Quote:
Originally posted by Carson O'Genic
It is beyond me how someone like Enderely continues to stay in the business of analysis. I've seen him many times on the local TV news, suggesting he has some notoriety. I guess all you have to do is call yourself an analysist and, right or wrong, people start to listen to you. I guess he is following in Dvorak's footsteps.

Most of his work is paid for byMS. MS is his main (if not only) customer. Sometimes though he does say something nice.

If you want to read some of his, and other columns, try this site. Thr site is actually very good, and has a Mac section as well. Look to the top menus.

I have it open to this column which is interesting. Click on COMMENTARY to get to the columns.

http://www.linuxinsider.com/story/Bu...ght-37806.html

This page is his infamous one I mentioned:

http://www.linuxinsider.com/story/45264.html

This earlier one is very interesting. I quess it should be read first, but is even better if read after.

http://www.linuxinsider.com/story/43646.html
post #9 of 19
Quote:
Originally posted by AppleInsider

However, UBS estimates Apple will sell only 4.5 million HDD-based iPods in fiscal year 2006, which would be down 30% year-over-year, due primarily to potential cannibalization from flash based players such as the nano.


Say it ain't so. The most popular model (which was hdd based) was replaced by the nano, and you think it may effect the hdd sales of iPods for 2006.

Geeze, UBS is really going out on a limb on that one.
post #10 of 19
Quote:
Originally posted by Carson O'Genic
I guess he is following in Dvorak's footsteps.

Dvorak dot org slash blog.
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post #11 of 19
Quote:
Originally posted by melgross
Yeah, well our friend Rob Enderely said that according to a report that he wasn't allowed to mention the name of, Apples cpu sales had "tanked" this quarter.

But "Mr. Microsoft" is usually wrong about Apple anyway.

I do think that Apple's cpu sales might drop, or not increase much in the January-March quarter, as we get closed to the intro, and that quarter is normally their slowest anyway.

The April-June quarter will be hit the most if no Intel machine shows up before the conference in June. I would expect that simply because everyone interested always waits when they know that new models are coming out and Apple has not filled the distribution channels with the old machines.

I have sources and believe me- sales haven't "tanked" the slightest bit year over year...
post #12 of 19
Quote:
Originally posted by tacojohn
I have sources and believe me- sales haven't "tanked" the slightest bit year over year...

So do I, and I agree with you.
post #13 of 19
I just bought a new iMac this weekend, so the x86 move certainly hasn't effected my decision to buy. In fact, I've never been to the local Apple store and not seen it packed with people looking at both iPods and Macs.
post #14 of 19
I'm sure sales ARE affected--decreasing, or maybe increasing less... but NOT nearly as much as many people expected. This shows that Apple's timing is good: move before there's a problem. Begin the transition while the current PPC chips are good enough to keep selling.

Also, I just re-read the headline. 10 million iPod NANOS alone?! Plus HD iPods and Shuffles? That IS quite a jump. Especially if new HD iPods are truly coming before the holidays.
post #15 of 19
Quote:
Originally posted by nagromme
[BAlso, I just re-read the headline. 10 million iPod NANOS alone?! Plus HD iPods and Shuffles? That IS quite a jump. Especially if new HD iPods are truly coming before the holidays. [/B]

I think that was an error. It shoukld be 10 million iPods, with Nano's the largest share.
post #16 of 19
Quote:
Originally posted by melgross
I think that was an error. It shoukld be 10 million iPods, with Nano's the largest share.

hmm.. well it does say:

Quote:
Originally posted by AppleInsider
The firm's sources indicate iPod nano build orders for the quarter could exceed 10 million units. Apple sells various other iPod models which would only add to this figure.
post #17 of 19
I'd believe 10M nanos in one year, but not in one quarter -- especially this early.
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post #18 of 19
Quote:
Originally posted by JDraden
hmm.. well it does say:

I really do think that's an error. Other articles talk about 10 million iPods, though some think it might be a bit more.

Edit:

I've been checking articles, and there seem to be two opinions. One is that there will be a total of 10 million or a bit more units sold. The other says that it's 10 million Nano's plus whatever else.

The problem here is that each article is referencing other articles of the same opinion in a circle. I don't know which is the original. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.
post #19 of 19
The simple fact is around 10+ million iPods are expected over the next quarter. The nano, as the mini's replacement, was always going to take the lion's share. Based on early sales it is quite possible they may now be thinking the nanos alone will reach that mark and these are build orders only, a portion of which will be used to meet demand carried over from the previous quarter.

I'm not really sure why anyone would think there's an error because there isn't a lot there to support that it is. It's feasible, simple as that.
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