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Are catastrophes way up, or is it just me?

post #1 of 44
Thread Starter 
seriously, is it just me, or does it seem we are averaging a LOT of "once in a lifetime catastrophic events" per year lately? last year's florida-four (ivan, jeanne, charles and frances), this year's katrina and rita, the tsunami late last year, now an earthquake killing at least 18,000 in pakistan and climbing, supposedly the avian flu coming (or at least more likely), etc., etc., etc. heck, you can even crank it back to sept 11th and start couting things that could be considered high on the "whoa" scale.

anyone care to make us a graph? when do we get to "plague of frogs" and "river of blood"?
When you're lovers in a dangerous time,
You're made to feel as if your love's a crime.
Nothing worth having comes without some kind of fight.
Gotta kick at the darkness 'til it bleeds daylight.

-...
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When you're lovers in a dangerous time,
You're made to feel as if your love's a crime.
Nothing worth having comes without some kind of fight.
Gotta kick at the darkness 'til it bleeds daylight.

-...
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post #2 of 44
Payback is a bitch.
post #3 of 44
Oh, it can get worse.

How about asteroid 2004 MN4? Fortunately, its only about 320 meters in diameter- big, but not dinosaur-killer big.

"On April 13, 2029, 2004 MN4 will be about 22,600 miles (36,350 kilometers) from Earth's center. That is just below the altitude of geosynchronous satellites."

Yes you read that correctly, it will between the Earth and some of our satellites.

"The flyby will change the orbit of the asteroid and create "a low, but real possibility" that it will return to hit Earth seven years later on April 13, 2036, Schweickart advised."

"Schweickart lays out one scenario -- again, the odds of such a result are very small -- in which 2004 MN4 hits the Pacific Ocean, about 680 miles (1,100 kilometers) off the Southern California coast. The entire western coastline of the United States would experience a devastating tsunami, resulting in billions of dollars worth of damage, Schweickart says."

Feel better about today?

http://www.space.com/news/050519_asteroid_mission.html
post #4 of 44
pterodactyls. no one is considering them.
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Gangs are not seen as legitimate, because they don't have control over public schools.
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post #5 of 44
Quote:
Originally posted by midwinter
pterodactyls. no one is considering them.

Actually, someone is.


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post #6 of 44
Well, shit. My other hobby horse is this:

TRAINS.

As someone who was nearly blown up in London on 7/7, I have become increasingly concerned that the American anti-terrorism whatsits have not considered the possibility that the terrorists might hijack a train and drive it into a building. Or maybe drive it into an offshore drilling rig.
Gangs are not seen as legitimate, because they don't have control over public schools.
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Gangs are not seen as legitimate, because they don't have control over public schools.
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post #7 of 44
Quote:
Originally posted by midwinter
Well, shit. My other hobby horse is this:

TRAINS.

As someone who was nearly blown up in London on 7/7, I have become increasingly concerned that the American anti-terrorism whatsits have not considered the possibility that the terrorists might hijack a train and drive it into a building. Or maybe drive it into an offshore drilling rig.

Drive a train off-shore?

That would be something.
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post #8 of 44
Quote:
Originally posted by Carson O'Genic
"...a low, but real possibility" that it will return to hit Earth seven years later on April 13, 2036....

The entire western coastline of the United States would experience a devastating tsunami, resulting in billions of dollars worth of damage,..."

Note to self: Don't live in California in April 2036.

Let's hope we can evacuate everyone in time.
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post #9 of 44
I blame 24/7 news media.
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post #10 of 44
I've got the best one just a couple hours away from me: The Yellowstone Supervolcano. The whole park is one big volcano. It blew 2 million years ago, another 1 million years ago, and again 650,000 years ago. I think we're due. And when it goes again, goodbye everyone in the Western half of the US and a good chunk of Canada and Mexico.
post #11 of 44
That discovery channel thing was awesome.
Gangs are not seen as legitimate, because they don't have control over public schools.
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Gangs are not seen as legitimate, because they don't have control over public schools.
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post #12 of 44
I agree, the Discovery channel movie "Supervolcano" was really good. It was one of the best disaster movies I've ever seen. Scary that it actually has a basis in reality. Worth a watch, especially if you've got HDTV.
post #13 of 44
Quote:
Originally posted by Carson O'Genic
Oh, it can get worse.

How about asteroid 2004 MN4? Fortunately, its only about 320 meters in diameter- big, but not dinosaur-killer big.

"On April 13, 2029, 2004 MN4 will be about 22,600 miles (36,350 kilometers) from Earth's center. That is just below the altitude of geosynchronous satellites."

Yes you read that correctly, it will between the Earth and some of our satellites.

"The flyby will change the orbit of the asteroid and create "a low, but real possibility" that it will return to hit Earth seven years later on April 13, 2036, Schweickart advised."

"Schweickart lays out one scenario -- again, the odds of such a result are very small -- in which 2004 MN4 hits the Pacific Ocean, about 680 miles (1,100 kilometers) off the Southern California coast. The entire western coastline of the United States would experience a devastating tsunami, resulting in billions of dollars worth of damage, Schweickart says."

Feel better about today?

http://www.space.com/news/050519_asteroid_mission.html

The fact that the figure is in dollars must say something about the human race right now.
post #14 of 44
Quote:
Originally posted by CosmoNut
Note to self: Don't live in California in April 2036.

Let's hope we can evacuate everyone in time.

It'll be like Deep Impact but with less Morgan Freeman.
post #15 of 44
Quote:
Originally posted by midwinter
Well, shit. My other hobby horse is this:

TRAINS.

As someone who was nearly blown up in London on 7/7, I have become increasingly concerned that the American anti-terrorism whatsits have not considered the possibility that the terrorists might hijack a train and drive it into a building. Or maybe drive it into an offshore drilling rig.


RESPECT
post #16 of 44
Quote:
Originally posted by groverat
I blame 24/7 news media.

I blame Canada.
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post #17 of 44
Quote:
Originally posted by Not Unlike Myself
I blame Canada.

Just Quebec.
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"Many people would sooner die than think; in fact, they do so." - Bertrand Russell
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post #18 of 44
Quote:
Originally posted by BRussell
I've got the best one just a couple hours away from me: The Yellowstone Supervolcano. The whole park is one big volcano. It blew 2 million years ago, another 1 million years ago, and again 650,000 years ago. I think we're due. And when it goes again, goodbye everyone in the Western half of the US and a good chunk of Canada and Mexico.

I was watching a show on that - they said that the hotspot is moving west under the mountains, and is now less of a danger because of the thicker rock.

I am waiting for the Cascadia Megathrust, which is a pending richter 9.5 earthquake that will destroy Vancouver, Victoria, Seattle and Portland some time in the next 500 years (but it could be tomorrow). The last quake was in 1700, and they occur every 200-800 years.
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post #19 of 44
Quote:
Originally posted by Placebo
The fact that the figure is in dollars must say something about the human race right now.

Oh, like you don't know the net worth of your family [/irony].
post #20 of 44
Quote:
Originally posted by audiopollution
Just Quebec.

Just Quebecois. Speak real French.
post #21 of 44
Going back to ROKs original question to the masses, yes, I to think the world is going to hell in a hand basket. More floods, earthquakes and just plain chaos then I can remember in my entire feeble attempt at life. If anything (not sure good) it shows how incompetent and unorganized or government really is, maybe this is going to be a wake up call for a lot of us. Which reminds me Im late; the seventh seal has to be opened, well if you excuse me.
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When I looked up "Ninjas" in Thesaurus.com, it said "Ninja's can't be found" Well played Ninjas, well played.
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post #22 of 44
I blame Bush.
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"Overpopulation and climate change are serious shit." Gilsch
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post #23 of 44
It seems the Onion is with me on the highly unexpected attacks.
Gangs are not seen as legitimate, because they don't have control over public schools.
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Gangs are not seen as legitimate, because they don't have control over public schools.
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post #24 of 44
Quote:
Originally posted by Aquatic
I blame Bush.

I knew it was going to be said sooner than later. If he would stop spending money and bring our troops home, California could be saved! \ It's not to late!!!!!
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post #25 of 44
When is the next iPod due for release?
Hard-Core.
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Hard-Core.
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post #26 of 44
Thread Starter 
hey, remember when i started this thread? and then we got to hurricane epsilon (admittedly, nothing past wilma was any threat to land, but still, EPSILON?!?), and now lots of fires across texas...

but i'm sure the environment's just hunky-dory and the past 5-10 years have just been one big ol' coincidence.
When you're lovers in a dangerous time,
You're made to feel as if your love's a crime.
Nothing worth having comes without some kind of fight.
Gotta kick at the darkness 'til it bleeds daylight.

-...
Reply
When you're lovers in a dangerous time,
You're made to feel as if your love's a crime.
Nothing worth having comes without some kind of fight.
Gotta kick at the darkness 'til it bleeds daylight.

-...
Reply
post #27 of 44
God's wrath on red states.
"In a republic, voters may vote for the leaders they want, but they get the leaders they deserve."
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"In a republic, voters may vote for the leaders they want, but they get the leaders they deserve."
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post #28 of 44
When it comes to earthquake, it's pure hazard. There is more deaths than ever, because the concentration of people living in this aeras is higher.

Now the climate has changed. There is more hurricanes in the south of USA now, than in 1930. In 1930 there was an average number of 3 hurricanes per year, now it's seven. Hurricanes are more powerful and more common right now.

So climate related catastrophes are way up, but earthquake catastrophes are not.
post #29 of 44
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally posted by Powerdoc
When it comes to earthquake, it's pure hazard. There is more deaths than ever, because the concentration of people living in this aeras is higher.

Now the climate has changed. There is more hurricanes in the south of USA now, than in 1930. In 1930 there was an average number of 3 hurricanes per year, now it's seven. Hurricanes are more powerful and more common right now.

So climate related catastrophes are way up, but earthquake catastrophes are not.

did i mention we had a richter level 3 earthquake in BATON ROUGE last week? the ground here is so soft, though, hardly anyone felt it, but the seismic meters picked it up.

zen question: if an earthquake occurs under louisiana, but no one feels it, did it ever really exist?
When you're lovers in a dangerous time,
You're made to feel as if your love's a crime.
Nothing worth having comes without some kind of fight.
Gotta kick at the darkness 'til it bleeds daylight.

-...
Reply
When you're lovers in a dangerous time,
You're made to feel as if your love's a crime.
Nothing worth having comes without some kind of fight.
Gotta kick at the darkness 'til it bleeds daylight.

-...
Reply
post #30 of 44
Quote:
Originally posted by rok
did i mention we had a richter level 3 earthquake in BATON ROUGE last week? the ground here is so soft, though, hardly anyone felt it, but the seismic meters picked it up.

zen question: if an earthquake occurs under louisiana, but no one feels it, did it ever really exist?

I don't know what you mean, but there is always a small amount of sismic activity everywhere. An sismic activity noticed by no one, except instruments do not fit with the word earthquake.
post #31 of 44
As Groverat implied, it's not so much 'more disasters' but 'more reporting of pretty much the same number of disasters'... and then combine that with a population increase in areas potentially at risk from the effects of severe weather (in major river flood plains, hurricane affected coastlines, fire prone regions etc.), and disasters will assume not only a greater frequency but also a greater intensity.

Re. global warming and tropical weather... who knows for sure to what extent human activity is responsible for greater frequency and/or greater intensity of tropical systems? What is the ratio of human activity to natural cycles re. global warming? We don't know. Reliable meteorological records go back 200 years at the most, which is not long enough to determine the contribution of natural climatic cycles... some cycles have periods of far longer than 200 years so interpretation is at best speculative. We've just had two severe tropical seasons, so of course we're asking the questions, especially considering the unprecedented scenario of no less than three 175mph category 5 storms with central pressures of 900hPa (and below), all forming within a few weeks of each other, and causing such enormous loss of life and property damage.

Combining last year's fearsome foursome and this year's terrible trio and Floridians are probably wondering "wtf did we do to deserve this?"
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"We've never made the case, or argued the case that somehow Osama bin Laden was directly involved in 9/11. That evidence has never been forthcoming". VP Cheney, 3/29/2006. Interview by Tony Snow
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post #32 of 44
Yeah, oddly enough it seems like ever since the invention of the 24 hour news cycle, there appears to be more and more disasters everywhere.





Now why would that be........?
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Common sense is the collection of prejudices acquired by age eighteen. - Albert Einstein

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post #33 of 44
24 hour news is a blessing and a curse. You hear about stuff that wouldn't have been on the nightly news or in your morning paper, but there's also a lot of crap.
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post #34 of 44
Quote:
Originally posted by rok

zen question: if an earthquake occurs under louisiana, but no one feels it, did it ever really exist?

Dats why we bury our dead above de ground...don't want dem earthquakes to swallow em up!


Back on subject..its seems way hotter than normal this time of year in Louisiana than previous years. But I am sure someone will post a graph that proves me wrong . Still warm though.
post #35 of 44
I remember that the december after Hugo in SC, the lake froze in my neighborhood and I went sledding on the streets. Hurricanes often disrupt normal weather conditions locally for a long time... So it wouldn't surprise me if it was hotter than normal in LA...
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post #36 of 44
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally posted by trailmaster308
Dats why we bury our dead above de ground...don't want dem earthquakes to swallow em up!


Back on subject..its seems way hotter than normal this time of year in Louisiana than previous years. But I am sure someone will post a graph that proves me wrong . Still warm though.

i agree... i've only felt barely two weeks of what i would call "cold" weather (and i have lived in canada AND florida for much of my life, so i have a sense of scale here). i mean, louisiana's tropical and all, but it still gets colder than this for longer.
When you're lovers in a dangerous time,
You're made to feel as if your love's a crime.
Nothing worth having comes without some kind of fight.
Gotta kick at the darkness 'til it bleeds daylight.

-...
Reply
When you're lovers in a dangerous time,
You're made to feel as if your love's a crime.
Nothing worth having comes without some kind of fight.
Gotta kick at the darkness 'til it bleeds daylight.

-...
Reply
post #37 of 44
It's supposed to be 56(F) in Kansas City on NEW YEARS DAY.

This has been an extremely mild winter here.
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post #38 of 44
Can you believe this? There's yet another tropical storm out there... Zeta. Named storm #27! The tropical season (by rights) should have ended by the end of November..and now we're almost into January and a good way into the Greek alphabet. I guess the only consolations are that Zeta is of no danger to any land area, and will definitely be the last storm of the 2005 season. (!)


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/310243.shtml
"We've never made the case, or argued the case that somehow Osama bin Laden was directly involved in 9/11. That evidence has never been forthcoming". VP Cheney, 3/29/2006. Interview by Tony Snow
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"We've never made the case, or argued the case that somehow Osama bin Laden was directly involved in 9/11. That evidence has never been forthcoming". VP Cheney, 3/29/2006. Interview by Tony Snow
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post #39 of 44
Well it looks like the Hurricane Season moniker should be abandoned...
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post #40 of 44
Do they have a contingency if they run out of greek letters?
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