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Our Troops Must Stay

post #1 of 122
Thread Starter 
American cannot abandon 27 million Iraqis to 10,000 terrorists

I know the Democratic blogs prefer to focus on the snippy dismissal but Senator Lieberman makes some very good points.

One of the most interesting points...

Quote:
Here is an ironic finding I brought back from Iraq. While U.S. public opinion polls show serious declines in support for the war and increasing pessimism about how it will end, polls conducted by Iraqis for Iraqi universities show increasing optimism. Two-thirds say they are better off than they were under Saddam, and a resounding 82% are confident their lives in Iraq will be better a year from now than they are today. What a colossal mistake it would be for America's bipartisan political leadership to choose this moment in history to lose its will and, in the famous phrase, to seize defeat from the jaws of the coming victory.

The leaders of America's military and diplomatic forces in Iraq, Gen. George Casey and Ambassador Zal Khalilzad, have a clear and compelling vision of our mission there. It is to create the environment in which Iraqi democracy, security and prosperity can take hold and the Iraqis themselves can defend their political progress against those 10,000 terrorists who would take it from them.

Of course our news media has the story right and the actual Iraqis themselves must have it wrong. Perhaps in another year we can have a nice book published called "What's the Matter with Iraq?" where someone can opine about how the people of Iraq continue to vote against their own self-interest.

The Washington Post notes that just as Iraqi and American opinion has diverged, so has opinion beween the American military and American civilians.

The reality is that the people on the scene, the Iraqi people and the military personnel risking their lives hold a much different view than the people who have to get their news from the American press. I hope that people will stop shopping for their Xbox360's long enough to realize what is at stake and get their information from more than the evening news.

Nick

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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post #2 of 122
I agree that the military must stay for a long time, until the iraqis ar able to handle their own country.

But I strongly disagree with the premise for Liebermanns conclusion. The reason is the pottery barn rule, not because anyone is suddenly having huge successes, that the leadership there suddenly had a divine inspiration and found The Right Way to US Iraq policy succes or the iraqis has begun to spread the well seasoned flowers in front of the US tanks.
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post #3 of 122
The subtitle says all that needs to be said. Ten thousand people can not control 27 million people. It's impossible.
post #4 of 122
How odd that US politicians would conveniently find Iraqi pollsters willing to cheerlead the latest talking point. Unnamed pollsters, perhaps US-funded pollsters, or Chalabi "pliable truth" spinners, we aren't told who.

The international press seems to find just the opposite view from Iraqis, including their ex-Prime Minister.

Guardian: Iraqi PM Allawi reports Abuse and Torture worse than under Saddam
Quote:
Human rights abuses in Iraq are now as bad as they were under Saddam Hussein and are even in danger of eclipsing his record, according to the country's first Prime Minister after the fall of Saddam's regime.
'People are doing the same as [in] Saddam's time and worse,' Ayad Allawi told The Observer. 'It is an appropriate comparison. People are remembering the days of Saddam. These were the precise reasons that we fought Saddam and now we are seeing the same things.'

Neither source is perfect, but at least one is named and can be fact checked by other journalists.
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post #5 of 122
Unfortunately US troops have to stay for a very long time. Something have to be done to stop terrorism and gangsterism. Iraq is a mess. Going away from Iraq (what expect terrorists, in order to do their nasty busisness) will make things even worse.

I said unfortunately, because it's unfortunate for US soldiers and their families to stay in Iraq. It's very dangerous here, and it must be really disturbing, much more than doing a conventional war, something a soldier is trained to do.
post #6 of 122
I know.

What Iraq needs is a multinational force taking their orders from the evil United Nations, dedicated to protecting United Nations-funded efforts to repair Iraqi infrastructure and institutions. Peace keeping.

I'm really scared of what will happen if the Americans do leave for the sake of domestic political expediency. Iraq will be like a cross between Afghanistan and Russia: violent, corrupt, radicalised, full of gangsters and sitting on vast mineral wealth.

Troops should stay. Maybe just not the American ones.
post #7 of 122
Quote:
Originally posted by Hassan i Sabbah
I know.

What Iraq needs is a multinational force taking their orders from the evil United Nations, dedicated to protecting United Nations-funded efforts to repair Iraqi infrastructure and institutions. Peace keeping..

The UN? Bah. Americans would still be doing most of the work. There would just be some leftist clown from the UN in a funny uniform standing in front of the cameras. Americans take orders from Americn generals, not the UN.
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post #8 of 122
And what a good job they are doing.
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post #9 of 122
Quote:
Originally posted by trumptman, quoted from www.opinionjournal.com
...a resounding 82% are confident their lives in Iraq will be better a year from now than they are today.

To whatever extent this poll is even accurate, one has to wonder what portion of that confidence is based on imagining that American troops will be gone a year from now. How much Iraqi optimism is based on hearing that Americans are sick of the war and want their men and women to come home?

Have the pollsters ask Iraqis whether they think their lives will be better a year from now with or without American troops still on the ground, and then you'd getter a better picture how the Iraqis feel.
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post #10 of 122
Quote:
Originally posted by trumptman
One of the most interesting points...
Quote:
Here is an ironic finding I brought back from Iraq. While U.S. public opinion polls show serious declines in support for the war and increasing pessimism about how it will end, polls conducted by Iraqis for Iraqi universities show increasing optimism. Two-thirds say they are better off than they were under Saddam, and a resounding 82% are confident their lives in Iraq will be better a year from now than they are today.


That certainly is interesting, particularly since that poll and others said this about the issue at hand:
Quote:
A February poll by the U.S. military, cited by the Brookings Institution, found that 71 percent of Iraqis "oppose the presence of Coalition Forces in Iraq." This poll was taken only in urban areas, but others have found much the same sentiment.

According to a January 2005 poll by Abu Dhabi TV/Zogby International, 82 percent of Sunni Arabs and 69 percent of Shiite Arabs favor the withdrawal of U.S. troops either immediately or after an elected government is in place.

A nationwide poll taken by Iraqi university researchers for the British government found that 82 percent of all Iraqis surveyed in August are strongly opposed to the presence of coalition troops and 67 percent feel less secure because of the occupation, the Sunday Telegraph of London reported last month.

from Let's ask the Iraqi people if U.S. forces should leave
post #11 of 122
Giant, you do know that the two statements are not excluding eachother?
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post #12 of 122
Did anyone hear Bush's speech this morning? I heard parts of it in the car, and it was just "9/11..." "Iraq..." "terrists..." "freedom..." "war on terruh..." "Saddam..." "9/11..." Jeez I thought it was 2002 again.
post #13 of 122
Quote:
Originally posted by Anders
Giant, you do know that the two statements are not excluding eachother?

You mean Nick's thread title and the actual findings of the poll he cited?
post #14 of 122
No, what I said, referrin to the post just above mine
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post #15 of 122
Thread Starter 
I think that the questioning about what is being polled needs to be a little more sophisticated than just do you want the end result. Of course everyone wants the end results. Americans want their troops to come home. Iraq wants to be an autonomous democracy. Any question that deals with on the ends results of these two matters is going to find support in overwhelming numbers because they are both the goal state and ideal state.

I've seen this slowly starting to come into the polling. Polls instead of just asking Americans if they want troops to come home (obviously yes, everyone wants them to eventually come home) are starting to ask if you want the troops to get Iraq to an autonomous state/win the peace/beat the terrorists/insert phrase of choice and then come home. Other polls are starting to ask do you want the troops to cut and run/return home immediately/leave Iraq to Iraqis right now/phrase of choice.

The polls I have cited do not deal so much with the issue of whether people want the troops to stay or go eventually or immediately. The points I made had to do with the very large difference of opinion on whether the goal state is being worked toward/met or will eventually be obtained. The military and people of Iraqi seem to be much more optimistic than the folks in the United States. I noted that I hope Americans start getting some information from sources other than the evening news since it appears that they are putting any news into a very fatalistic tone as shown by the views of the respective parties toward the future.

Nick

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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post #16 of 122
Quote:
Originally posted by Moe_in_Texas
The UN? Bah. Americans would still be doing most of the work. There would just be some leftist clown from the UN in a funny uniform standing in front of the cameras. Americans take orders from Americn generals, not the UN.

Well, OK, you leave Iraq and the rest of us can go about fulfilling our moral duty to repair the nation from the terrible, violent mess you're responsible for.

A sort of 'coalition of the willing', if you like.
post #17 of 122
The real question is why do Iraqi's feel that they will be better off in one year.

No where in any of these questions is the kernel of truth persued and I am tired of people arguing about idiotic questions like: Do you think you will be better off in a year from now?

What needs to be asked are questions which get at the root of this sentiment, and not arbitrarily decide that this opinion is a good indication for american troop presence, because it doesn't suggest that at all.

What would suggest that is asking questions like: If the US troops remain here for another year, will your life be better then? and If the US troops leave in the next year, will your life be better then?

Otherwise it is crap polling and meaningless to any rational discussion of the events in this world.

Lastly, what do the people of any country know? No nation was founded on the concept that the general populous knows best, so why this sudden rush to accept the uninformed people's opinions (in either the US or Iraq) about the situation in a newly founded country.
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post #18 of 122
Quote:
Originally posted by Hassan i Sabbah
I know.

What Iraq needs is a multinational force taking their orders from the evil United Nations, dedicated to protecting United Nations-funded efforts to repair Iraqi infrastructure and institutions. Peace keeping.

I'm really scared of what will happen if the Americans do leave for the sake of domestic political expediency. Iraq will be like a cross between Afghanistan and Russia: violent, corrupt, radicalised, full of gangsters and sitting on vast mineral wealth.

Troops should stay. Maybe just not the American ones.

I hate to admit it, but you might be right. I don't think the UN is up for it at the moment, though. Lieberman is right, it has to be finished -- if more inter/multi/national bodies threw their weight behind this, the sooner the turrrurrurrurrurrssts, might look elsewhere for the low-hanging fruit.

'Arguing in front of the kids' on Iraq in Congress needs to go by the wayside as well. I think it's clear that all this has amounted to was 'twisting the knife' on Iraq to get at the administration. Unwise strategy, it's failed to accomplish anything constructive.

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and in that lies not liberation but alienation, the cutting off from things as they really are. --...

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post #19 of 122
If someone is going to write a whole post saying that the Iraqis agree with him and "the military" that "Our Troops Must Stay," he should probably bother to look and see whether that statement is true or if they overwhelmingly think the troops must go, which, incidentally, is what they actually think.

The simple fact is that if Lieberman (and, by extension, trumptman) decides to cite a poll of Iraqi opinion in a discussion about whether troops should stay in Iraq, it's extremely dishonest to sweep under the rug and ignore the fact that multiple polls show that Iraqis overwhelmingly want the troops to leave, which, you know, is the part of the poll that actually directly applies to the topic being discussed.

If we want to discuss the "view" of the "Iraqi people" and how "Iraqi and American opinion has diverged" with regard to whether the troops should withdraw, it seems the most pressing figures to cite would be, well, Iraqi and American opinions on whether the troops should withdraw.

And Anders, if you absolutely must argue, do us all a favor and argue against the point I'm actually making, not the point that you wish or imagine I am making.
post #20 of 122
In my view, we're missing a step in most of the discussions about Iraq withdrawal. It's often simplified into:

Get out = Iraq worse off but fuck 'm who cares, vs.
Stay = Because we want Iraq to be a better place.

But are we so sure that staying is needed to make Iraq better? Maybe our presence there is making things worse? Maybe we could make things better there by leaving, maybe the very best thing we could do for Iraq is to leave, right now. I'm not convinced that's true, but it needs to be discussed in this debate.
post #21 of 122
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally posted by hardeeharhar
The real question is why do Iraqi's feel that they will be better off in one year.

Probably because regardless of the lack of reporting on it, things are getting better.

Quote:
No where in any of these questions is the kernel of truth persued and I am tired of people arguing about idiotic questions like: Do you think you will be better off in a year from now?

You are essentually arguing that nothing predictive is of value. That simply isn't true.

Quote:
What needs to be asked are questions which get at the root of this sentiment, and not arbitrarily decide that this opinion is a good indication for american troop presence, because it doesn't suggest that at all.

What would suggest that is asking questions like: If the US troops remain here for another year, will your life be better then? and If the US troops leave in the next year, will your life be better then?

Otherwise it is crap polling and meaningless to any rational discussion of the events in this world.

I agree that we need more sophisticated questioning within the polls to improve their predictive nature. I would suggest goals within the questioning instead of timeframes. Events are seldom orderly enough to follow a strict timeframe.

Quote:
Lastly, what do the people of any country know? No nation was founded on the concept that the general populous knows best, so why this sudden rush to accept the uninformed people's opinions (in either the US or Iraq) about the situation in a newly founded country.

Obviously you've been hanging out at Kos or DU where people piss and moan all day about the sheeple who never seem to share and rise up to support their views and opinions.

If you claim the general populace doesn't know best, and then complain that you know best but that the general population won't support or go along with what you want, then what are you suggesting? Are you arguing for an authoritarian police state?

Nick

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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post #22 of 122
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally posted by BRussell
In my view, we're missing a step in most of the discussions about Iraq withdrawal. It's often simplified into:

Get out = Iraq worse off but fuck 'm who cares, vs.
Stay = Because we want Iraq to be a better place.

But are we so sure that staying is needed to make Iraq better? Maybe our presence there is making things worse? Maybe we could make things better there by leaving, maybe the very best thing we could do for Iraq is to leave, right now. I'm not convinced that's true, but it needs to be discussed in this debate.

Your point is a valid one. The actual consequences of these actions are what should guide the decisions.

However I think what stops this type of discussion is the fixation by some parties on whether certain polls, which ask questions in an open ended or absolute manner show support for the troops in Iraq. That whole premise is just not valid. In the United States we have entire amendments and bills related to preventing quartering of troops, insuring protection from search and seizure, police harassment, etc. If someone asked the question "Do you want the police in your home?" I can imagine most people answering no. Yet if the question were phrased as "Do you want the police to come in your home when a crime is occuring, stay to handle the crime and then leave?" The results would appear to be the polar opposite of the earlier question.

BRussell you bring up the point of troop effectiveness which is sort of like the police arriving for a domestic dispute where they may make things worse or better. Many folks argue that the U.S. is now sitting in the middle of civil war or at least between warring ethnic faction and that they cannot make things better as a result. There are parties also arguing that are troops are currently very effective, but that their job is half finished or that what they have done is not being reported. I personally think that this is why people have looked at the time element as a means of sorting out this question.

The Lieberman column made this point which I consider to be an insightful one.

Quote:
In the face of terrorist threats and escalating violence, eight million Iraqis voted for their interim national government in January, almost 10 million participated in the referendum on their new constitution in October, and even more than that are expected to vote in the elections for a full-term government on Dec. 15. Every time the 27 million Iraqis have been given the chance since Saddam was overthrown, they have voted for self-government and hope over the violence and hatred the 10,000 terrorists offer them. Most encouraging has been the behavior of the Sunni community, which, when disappointed by the proposed constitution, registered to vote and went to the polls instead of taking up arms and going to the streets. Last week, I was thrilled to see a vigorous political campaign, and a large number of independent television stations and newspapers covering it.

He cites examples where even if the Iraqis are still not one nation, even if there are still dispute largely along tribal/ethnic lines to be resolved, it appears they desire self-government and are endorsing political processes to resolve those disputes. Loads of folks will argue that this information is not yet predictive and polls like he mentioned will be cited as proof that people believe these processes will become predictive of future positive political action. However we never really know until we know. The future has to roll on up and we have to see how these matters will work out. I think that is why lots of people of all political stripes seem to be fixated on 2006-2007 for firm action to be taken one way or another.

Nick

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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post #23 of 122
Quote:
Originally posted by BRussell
In my view, we're missing a step in most of the discussions about Iraq withdrawal. It's often simplified into:

Get out = Iraq worse off but fuck 'm who cares, vs.
Stay = Because we want Iraq to be a better place.

But are we so sure that staying is needed to make Iraq better? Maybe our presence there is making things worse? Maybe we could make things better there by leaving, maybe the very best thing we could do for Iraq is to leave, right now. I'm not convinced that's true, but it needs to be discussed in this debate.

But this is exactly the point: the political debate in America hasn't been "Okay, this is really bad, but let's hang together, or we're all likely to hang seperately -- what's the best way to fix this?" It's actually been a PR war of attrition -- it's nowhere near constructive.

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and in that lies not liberation but alienation, the cutting off from things as they really are. --...

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post #24 of 122
Quote:
Originally posted by Hassan i Sabbah
I know.

What Iraq needs is a multinational force taking their orders from the evil United Nations, dedicated to protecting United Nations-funded efforts to repair Iraqi infrastructure and institutions. Peace keeping.

I'm really scared of what will happen if the Americans do leave for the sake of domestic political expediency. Iraq will be like a cross between Afghanistan and Russia: violent, corrupt, radicalised, full of gangsters and sitting on vast mineral wealth.

Troops should stay. Maybe just not the American ones.

He's got the right idea. We just can't afford this anymore by ourselves.

If we do it will end only one way. Leaving like we did in South Vietnam. Having accomplished nothing for all those lives and dollars spent. A place we shouldn't have gone anyway.

Personally I think this is the most likely scenerio.

So if Bush leaves for a political agenda will the Bush supporters finally realize he's in it for himself?
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post #25 of 122
If we leave, they fall into complete civil war. Very simple. We stay until the Iraqi troops can handle the situation. This has been a huge job. SH is in a prison cell. Things are getting better. The biggest flaw in the Bush plan was to give the people the idea this would be easy and clean. We just over the hump in a pretty bad war. More work to do. Takes time.
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post #26 of 122
Quote:
Originally posted by Moe_in_Texas
If we leave, they fall into complete civil war. Very simple. We stay until the Iraqi troops can handle the situation. This has been a huge job. SH is in a prison cell. Things are getting better. The biggest flaw in the Bush plan was to give the people the idea this would be easy and clean. We just over the hump in a pretty bad war. More work to do. Takes time.


" Things are getting better "

http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast/...age/index.html


http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast/...ain/index.html

http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2003/ira...es/casualties/


Next you'll be telling me about omelets and the necessity of breaking eggs.

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post #27 of 122
Quote:
Originally posted by trumptman
Probably because regardless of the lack of reporting on it, things are getting better.

That guess is as good as this one: Probably because regardless of the lack of reporting on it, most Iraqis expect the US troop withdraw to occur in the next year.




Quote:

You are essentually arguing that nothing predictive is of value. That simply isn't true.

That isn't what I was arguing at all. I am a scientist, and as I scientist predictions without reasons are useless. They are guesses and not predictive. Especially in the case of social predictions like this one, the reasons are the kernel of truth, the prediction is niether here nor there.


Quote:

I agree that we need more sophisticated questioning within the polls to improve their predictive nature. I would suggest goals within the questioning instead of timeframes. Events are seldom orderly enough to follow a strict timeframe.

The use of time frame in my example was because that is how the poll you cited made itself relevent in a human time frame. It could have asked, Are you going to better off at some point in the future?, and I would garauntee you that almost 100% of the respondents will say yes to that one. Regardless, I am glad you agree.

Quote:

Obviously you've been hanging out at Kos or DU where people piss and moan all day about the sheeple who never seem to share and rise up to support their views and opinions.

Who? I don't surf the web looking for ideas, liberal or conservative. I visit seven sites daily. Two of which are for email. Two of which are forums with apple themes. Three of which are news sites. Blogs are for idiots.

Quote:

If you claim the general populace doesn't know best, and then complain that you know best but that the general population won't support or go along with what you want, then what are you suggesting? Are you arguing for an authoritarian police state?

Nick

I have never complained about what the populace wants or doesn't want, except in cases where there has been a clear right and it wasn't the choice made by the people... For instance, lessening the burdon on homosexual couples. I have never suggested that the people obtain their opinions from anyone but themselves and those around them. To assume that people are told what to think is to trappeze back to the 1850s -- people make that choice, which makes it far worse than anything anyone has written on this subject.

I am arguing for a realization that we as a people place the burdon of our leadership on those people whose job it is to become the most informed, to lead with even hand, and to not shift at the whims of a fluxtional populace. Modern polling has ruined the political business. Almost no politicians lead with their own convictions, and so it is very much the tail wagging the dog in the US right now.
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post #28 of 122
Quote:
Originally posted by Moe_in_Texas
If we leave, they fall into complete civil war. Very simple. We stay until the Iraqi troops can handle the situation. This has been a huge job. SH is in a prison cell. Things are getting better. The biggest flaw in the Bush plan was to give the people the idea this would be easy and clean. We just over the hump in a pretty bad war. More work to do. Takes time.

They will fall into a civil war regardless of whether we leave or stay.

It is the nature of the beast.
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post #29 of 122
Quote:
Originally posted by trumptman
However I think what stops this type of discussion is the fixation by some parties on whether certain polls, which ask questions in an open ended or absolute manner show support for the troops in Iraq. That whole premise is just not valid. In the United States we have entire amendments and bills related to preventing quartering of troops, insuring protection from search and seizure, police harassment, etc. If someone asked the question "Do you want the police in your home?" I can imagine most people answering no. Yet if the question were phrased as "Do you want the police to come in your home when a crime is occuring, stay to handle the crime and then leave?" The results would appear to be the polar opposite of the earlier question.

In other words, since polls of Iraqis show they overwhelmingly oppose the US troop presence you support, there must be something wrong with all of the polls.

And thus we return to the initial post:
Quote:
Originally posted by trumptman
Of course our news media has the story right and the actual Iraqis themselves must have it wrong. Perhaps in another year we can have a nice book published called "What's the Matter with Iraq?" where someone can opine about how the people of Iraq continue to vote against their own self-interest.

Looks like you already started writing it with the extended title: "What's the Matter with Iraq? How Iraqis are Too Stupid to Answer Polls Correctly and Therefore Don't Really Oppose a US Troop Presence Even Though They Overwhelmingly Say They Do."
post #30 of 122
I will reply to Nick's very first post. I do agree with you on this Nick, There was far more "general" news coverage on the 360's release than the continuing killings in Iraq. A sign of the short attention span that has become the norm...

Quote:
The leaders of America's military and diplomatic forces in Iraq, Gen. George Casey and Ambassador Zal Khalilzad, have a CLEAR and COMPELLING vision of our mission there.

Say what?! You are quoting THESE guys...

Clear and compelling vision just like our leadership in the Whitehouse. Right?

I served my country in the first Gulf Farce, err, War. As such, I've kept in touch with some of my lifer bros and military families. MOST of the American ground pounders do not, I repeat, DO NOT, want to be there.

I know if we leave now Iraq will slip into civil war/chaos. Got news for you true believers, it's going to happen anyway I'm afraid. Under US leadership(or lack there of...) we have managed to unite groups that previously were at each others throats.

A lot of this is attributable in great part to Rumsfeld (military genius that he is...) cutting back on the combat boots that went into Iraq. Hell, if Powell wasn't a part of the administration at the time, we would have went in with far fewer. What a cluster...

I feel bad for Iraq's civilians whom are suffering worse than we are. It's understandable that they feel split in their desire to have us out of there and their fear of what will be when we are gone.

Saddam was afterall, the US's best regional buddy after the Israelis right up to the first Gulf Farce, err, War. Recepient of very generous millitary aid. My beloved country's hypocracy borders on the insane...

I feel bad for American families whom were led to believe that their sons and daughters were dying originally to preserve "our" freedom only to be told later that oops, what we meant is that they died to bring Democracy to Iraq. Minor discrepancy...

I KNOW, that liberty and freedom do not come free. Blood has to be shed and sacrifices have to be made from time to time. As someone who has seen and been involved in death and destruction up close and personal, I admit it boils my blood a bit to hear my fellow citizens and especialy politicians repeat the "we must stay the couse" mantra while they are snug and safe. Meanwhile the troops face the most horrendous circumstances placed before them due to increasingly suspicious or downright erroneous pre-war information.

It will ultimately be a damned if you do or damned if you don't. Unless we commit at the very least, 350,000 combat troops (that doesn't include support and logistics...) to Iraq for the next, oh let's say five years, Iraq will probably evolve into a Iranian-flavored Sharia controlled country. Looking at it purely and sefishly, from my American point of view, my brothers and sisters deaths will have been for naught... This, I can not stomach.

Sorry about the rant...
You know, what's interesting about our country is that for years we were isolated from the world by two great oceans, and for a while we got a false sense of security as a result of that. We...
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You know, what's interesting about our country is that for years we were isolated from the world by two great oceans, and for a while we got a false sense of security as a result of that. We...
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post #31 of 122
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally posted by jimmac
He's got the right idea. We just can't afford this anymore by ourselves.

If we do it will end only one way. Leaving like we did in South Vietnam. Having accomplished nothing for all those lives and dollars spent. A place we shouldn't have gone anyway.

Personally I think this is the most likely scenerio.

So if Bush leaves for a political agenda will the Bush supporters finally realize he's in it for himself?

We spend more dealing with the income tax code that we do dealing with Iraq.

Of course you may me right, I'm of the opinion we can't afford our current tax mess either.

Nick

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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post #32 of 122
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally posted by hardeeharhar
That guess is as good as this one: Probably because regardless of the lack of reporting on it, most Iraqis expect the US troop withdraw to occur in the next year.

The only way that is likely to occur is if some sort of slaughter occurs in the midterm elections.

Quote:
That isn't what I was arguing at all. I am a scientist, and as I scientist predictions without reasons are useless. They are guesses and not predictive. Especially in the case of social predictions like this one, the reasons are the kernel of truth, the prediction is niether here nor there.

There is a very strong underlying hypothesis to what we are doing in Iraq and the middle east. The hypothesis is that if we can take one of these countries and turn it into a stable democracy it will anchor the region and also provide an example of modern, democratic arab state for other states to move towards and ally with.

We did this in Europe with Germany and in the Pacific with Japan. The results have been pretty good but of course they are no where near instant.

Quote:
The use of time frame in my example was because that is how the poll you cited made itself relevent in a human time frame. It could have asked, Are you going to better off at some point in the future?, and I would garauntee you that almost 100% of the respondents will say yes to that one. Regardless, I am glad you agree.

Everything is better with context.

Quote:
Who? I don't surf the web looking for ideas, liberal or conservative. I visit seven sites daily. Two of which are for email. Two of which are forums with apple themes. Three of which are news sites. Blogs are for idiots.

You came here and responded to me. I mean what more proof of intellectual fault do you need?

Quote:
I have never complained about what the populace wants or doesn't want, except in cases where there has been a clear right and it wasn't the choice made by the people... For instance, lessening the burdon on homosexual couples. I have never suggested that the people obtain their opinions from anyone but themselves and those around them. To assume that people are told what to think is to trappeze back to the 1850s -- people make that choice, which makes it far worse than anything anyone has written on this subject.

I am arguing for a realization that we as a people place the burdon of our leadership on those people whose job it is to become the most informed, to lead with even hand, and to not shift at the whims of a fluxtional populace. Modern polling has ruined the political business. Almost no politicians lead with their own convictions, and so it is very much the tail wagging the dog in the US right now.

Agreed.

Nick

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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post #33 of 122
Quote:
Originally posted by BRussell
In my view, we're missing a step in most of the discussions about Iraq withdrawal. It's often simplified into:

Get out = Iraq worse off but fuck 'm who cares, vs.
Stay = Because we want Iraq to be a better place.

But are we so sure that staying is needed to make Iraq better? Maybe our presence there is making things worse? Maybe we could make things better there by leaving, maybe the very best thing we could do for Iraq is to leave, right now. I'm not convinced that's true, but it needs to be discussed in this debate.

Mmm. That's kinda what I was thinking.
post #34 of 122
Quote:
Originally posted by trumptman

There is a very strong underlying hypothesis to what we are doing in Iraq and the middle east. The hypothesis is that if we can take one of these countries and turn it into a stable democracy it will anchor the region and also provide an example of modern, democratic arab state for other states to move towards and ally with.

We did this in Europe with Germany and in the Pacific with Japan. The results have been pretty good but of course they are no where near instant.


I don't know much for Japon, but speaking for germany the situation was way different.
German people where scared by the russian, they where very happy to deal with USA : the commies scared the hell out of them.

Futhermore, the german culture is not very different from the US one : occidental culture.

The german where also feeling guilty for the war crimes, and the one who do not feel guilty hated communism, and where happy to deal with an occidental capitalist countrie. Germans are also way more united than Iraqi people.

Add an excellent US management : the Marshall plan, who restaured the european economy, and more generally bring growth in many economies.
post #35 of 122
Quote:
Originally posted by hardeeharhar
They will fall into a civil war regardless of whether we leave or stay.

It is the nature of the beast.

I think you have that one right. Just like Vietnam we are spinning our wheels there.
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
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Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
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post #36 of 122
If US troops can´t enforce order there neither can UN.

So thats the story you are gonna tell if the troops are withdrawn and ragnarock breaks loose? "Well it would have happened anyway"?

You broke it. Fix it. Someway.
"I reject your reality and substitute it with my own" - President Bush
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"I reject your reality and substitute it with my own" - President Bush
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post #37 of 122
They are not our children. They are not idiots. We do not need to stay. We need to leave as soon as the vehicles are ready to carry us out.

If we're really concerned about maintaining security ( ) we need to drop lots of money and supplies on Iraq's fledgling government and security forces and get the hell out.
proud resident of a failed state
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proud resident of a failed state
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post #38 of 122
Quote:
Originally posted by Anders
You broke it. Fix it. Someway.

What if the best way to fix it is to leave?

It might be true that when someone screws something up, it's their responsibility to fix it, but that doesn't mean that the person who screwed up is the best person to do the actual fixing. Is the kid next door who throws a baseball through your window the best person to repair the window? Is the guy who runs you over with his car the best one to do the surgery you need?

I don't think many people realize just how badly botched a job we've done with Iraq. No amount of feel-good news coming out of Iraq matches the scope of the disaster of incompetence we've created, and the ensuing and understandable lack of trust the Iraqis have that it will be Americans who are going to make things better for them.

Our troubles in Iraq go well beyond the commonly acknowledged mistake of sending far too few troops during the initial invasion, and failing to provide good security. The CPA (Coalitional Provisional Authority) was horribly mismanaged, with many important and difficult jobs handed out to the inexperienced 20-something children of Bush admin cronies. The neocon dream of turning Iraq, via no-holds-barred shock treatment, into a laissez-faire capitalist paradise with plenty of loot for Bush's friends also failed miserably -- with the actual result being wide-spread unemployment, Iraqis alienated by seeing most business opportunities being handed out to Americans and other foreigners (even simple things like making concrete barriers, which the Iraqis could have done quite adequately and much, much more cheaply) while their own factories and out-of-work people stood idle, and, with security being so poor, precious little non-military loot for Americans and other coalition partners either.

Iraq still hasn't recovered very far from these initial failures. Throw Abu Ghraib on top of that, Bush's tendency to maintain and actually reward people who should have been fired long ago, and Bush's almost pathological inability to admit mistakes and do anything other than repeat that which has failed over and over again ("we gotta stay the course!") -- that's not a great recipe for success via continued American presence.

If there was someone competent in the market for the job of fixing Iraq -- not a job many seem eager to seek out -- maybe the right thing to do would be for America get the hell out of Iraq and hire someone else to fix the mess.
We were once so close to heaven
Peter came out and gave us medals
Declaring us the nicest of the damned -- They Might Be Giants          See the stars at skyviewcafe.com
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We were once so close to heaven
Peter came out and gave us medals
Declaring us the nicest of the damned -- They Might Be Giants          See the stars at skyviewcafe.com
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post #39 of 122
Quote:
Originally posted by trumptman
You are essentually arguing that nothing predictive is of value. That simply isn't true.

That's rich.

I'm gonna put that one up there with one of your "the polls change like the wind" comments when polling data isn't friendly to Bush.
"The selfishness of Ayn Rand capitalism is the equivalent of intellectual masturbation -- satisfying in an ego-stroking way, but an ethical void when it comes to our commonly shared humanity."
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"The selfishness of Ayn Rand capitalism is the equivalent of intellectual masturbation -- satisfying in an ego-stroking way, but an ethical void when it comes to our commonly shared humanity."
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post #40 of 122
Quote:
Originally posted by shetline
What if the best way to fix it is to leave?

The reason the 10,000 terrorists (if that data is even accurate) are even there is BECAUSE we're there. Sometime the concept is so simple. I often wonder if our country can beyond their own nose.
"The selfishness of Ayn Rand capitalism is the equivalent of intellectual masturbation -- satisfying in an ego-stroking way, but an ethical void when it comes to our commonly shared humanity."
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"The selfishness of Ayn Rand capitalism is the equivalent of intellectual masturbation -- satisfying in an ego-stroking way, but an ethical void when it comes to our commonly shared humanity."
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