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Analyst updates Intel Mac predictions

post #1 of 68
Thread Starter 
Apple is making "great progress" on the Intel version of Mac OS X 10.4 "Tiger," says one analyst who also predicts the first Intel Mac systems will include PowerBooks, iBooks and Mac minis.

In a note to clients on Friday, American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu said checks with sources indicate that the upcoming release of Mac OS X 10.4.4 for Intel runs well, with noticeable improvements to the Rosetta PowerPC emulation environment that improve backward compatibility with AltiVec support.

"We believe this will alleviate concerns that older software that hasn't been ported to Intel will run well without a recompile," Wu wrote.

The analyst also updated his predictions on the first Intel Macs, saying the PowerBook, iBook, Mac mini and Xserve will likely be the first models to go Intel because they are "weaker members" of Apple's product line that "would benefit moving to Intel."

Based on similar reasoning, Wu said he doesn't foresee the iMac being one of the first Intel Macs because "its current PowerPC G5 configurations already offers industry-leading price-performance."

Wu said he believes that Apple may be ready to debut the first Intel Mac during the first quarter of 2006, with others to follow in subsequent quarters.

"While many believe that cost was primary reason for Apple moving to Intel, we believe power management and the oppertunity to enter new markets are bigger reasons -- including the potential for a lightweight sub-notebook or palmtop similar to those offered by Sony, Lenovo, Dell and Sharp," Wu wrote. "We believe there is pent-up demand for an Apple subnotebook and that it would sell very well if priced competitively at $1499 or lower."

American Technology Research recently raised its December quarter forecast on Apple to include $4.9 billion in revenue, 54 cents earnings-per-share, and shipments of 9.7 million iPods.

The firm maintains a "Buy" rating on Apple shares with a target price of $77.
post #2 of 68
Quote:
Originally posted by AppleInsider
"While many believe that cost was primary reason for Apple moving to Intel, we believe power management and the oppertunity to enter new markets are bigger reasons -- including the potential for a lightweight sub-notebook or palmtop similar to those offered by Sony, Lenovo, Dell and Sharp," Wu wrote. "We believe there is pent-up demand for an Apple subnotebook and that it would sell very well if priced competitively at $1499 or lower."

And 95% of the 12" owners said, "ABOUT FREEKN TIME!"

I can't wait for a subnotebook, I hope this is true or I am going to be pissed at Mr. Wu.
Hard-Core.
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Hard-Core.
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post #3 of 68
Xserve moving among the first???

completely stupid!
post #4 of 68
I´ll bet Wu $1000 that Apple won´t release a true subnotebook in 2006
"I reject your reality and substitute it with my own" - President Bush
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"I reject your reality and substitute it with my own" - President Bush
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post #5 of 68
Did he say PALMTOP?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?! Hot Damn!!! It's about time. Apple needs to re-enter that market to capture more mobile and enterprise users.
post #6 of 68
Quote:
Originally posted by belzebuth
Xserve moving among the first???

completely stupid!

Why? Most servers are Xeons, and why shouldn't Apple enter that game? I happen to think they could do pretty well in the server market with industry-standard hardware. The xServer/xRAID/xSAN are pretty competitive options, but the PowerPC and MacOS X aspects frightens IT. If Apple could go bidding on regular contracts and get MacOS X compatibility in as a kind of hidden capability, it could start to slowly take off.

Besides, servers are one of the areas where most apps are compiled, vertical, or highly integrated, so they wouldn't have to worry that Grandma Smith's Recipe Book or whatever software isn't native yet.
post #7 of 68
Powerbook, iBook, MacMini, and Xserve at the same time? That is pretty ambious...

I doubt we'll see Xserve anytime soon since we haven't seen an OSX server for Intel yet.

PowerBook, iBook, and Mac Mini will come in the first half of the year, but Xserve will come much later.
post #8 of 68
Will these stories never cease?

I remember the days when NO ONE covered Apple.
post #9 of 68
Apple's got remarkable mind share these days. Much more than ever in Apple's history I would think. The main problem is a lot of people still don't know Apple computers exist. They associate Apple with the iPod...but I'm sure that 3 years is enough for people to become aware of Macs and I'd be very surprised if Apple didn't double or triple its marketshare in the next 2-3 years.

I go to a school that insists that most students buy IBM Thinkpads or Toshiba laptops. 3 years ago, you'd only see Thinkpads or Toshiba laptops at school. This year, though, I'm seeing an overwhelming amount of people with iBooks.

The cafe on my street is always full of students...and I almost always see 2-3 iBooks or PowerBooks amongst the students that are studying (usually 7-8 students). If you didn't know better, you'd think Apple had 15% market share for computers here in Montreal.
post #10 of 68
Quote:
Originally posted by kim kap sol
If you didn't know better, you'd think Apple had 15% market share for computers here in Montreal.

And don't forget that Macs get used longer too (don't trust me? check out lowendmac.com for a community based on the premise!) as the three year old 12" PB this is being typed on still feels a perfectly useable computer to me. If you sell computers to users who'll trash them after 2 years, you're going to have an inflated marketshare compared to the people who sell computers which last twice as long, whose installed base will be underrepresented. And it's installed base you're seeing in the cafe's, old and new.

Count me in for the SlimBook or PowerBook nano of course! But this 867MHz G4 is going to get used as long as there's a new Mac OS to run on it. I have relatives drooling for a free aluminum mac!
post #11 of 68
3 year old iBook?

I got ya beat!

Mine is 4 1/2 years old -- a G3 500 MHz dual-USB silver iBook.

Now I've admittedly maxed out the RAM at 576 MB, and replaced the original 10 GB HD with a 40 GB drive, but honestly, my iBook is eminently usable for day-to-day work as a full-time student.

Those unfamiliar with Macintosh find it hard to believe, but it's very true, the OS gets faster with every release, and as a result the hardware can be very long-lived.
post #12 of 68
Quote:
Originally posted by AppleInsider
The analyst also updated his predictions on the first Intel Macs, saying the [..] Xserve, will likely be the first model to go Intel because they are "weaker members" of Apple's product line that "would benefit moving to Intel."

Based on similar reasoning, Wu said he doesn't foresee the iMac being one of the first Intel Macs because "its current PowerPC G5 configurations already offers industry-leading price-performance."

So an iMac G5 "offers industry-leading price-performance", whereas an Xserve G5, which is specced higher, does not? Granted, the Xserve hasn't really been updated in a while and doesn't yet feature PCIe nor DDR2, but it's still not exactly a "'weaker member' of Apple's product line".
post #13 of 68
Quote:
Originally posted by ct77
3 year old iBook?

I got ya beat!

Mine is 4 1/2 years old -- a G3 500 MHz dual-USB silver iBook.

Now I've admittedly maxed out the RAM at 576 MB, and replaced the original 10 GB HD with a 40 GB drive, but honestly, my iBook is eminently usable for day-to-day work as a full-time student.

Those unfamiliar with Macintosh find it hard to believe, but it's very true, the OS gets faster with every release, and as a result the hardware can be very long-lived.

Got you beat as well. Im using a 6 1/2 yr old BW G3 300 mhz ! It still chugs along here while I type this! However Ill be getting a dual core 2.3 G5 here next week....
post #14 of 68
Quote:
Originally posted by hypoluxa
Got you beat as well. Im using a 6 1/2 yr old BW G3 300 mhz ! It still chugs along here while I type this! However Ill be getting a dual core 2.3 G5 here next week....

Since we're devolving here, my wife won't give up her 400MHz B/W, and I retired my 9600 and 9500's last year.
post #15 of 68
why the xserves?

xserves NEED opterons, not xeons. xeons suck so bad that it would be a step backwards to include them in the xserve designs.

Apple switching to Intel was a great choice for laptops, but not for the desktops.

although I still think the turion 64 is better than the pentium M.

really, apple pro desktops/servers will be the LAST machines to get intel processors.
post #16 of 68
yeah the xserve comment by Mr. Wu is bollocks (my favourite word this month, can you tell? ) that said "pent-up demand" is a gross understatement when it comes to apple computers. if they had the capacity and they slashed prices 30% across the line of iBooks, powerBooks, subnotebooks, Mac mini, bring in a Mac MiniTower, and did just a smidgen of advertising (1% of their after-tax nett profits) jesus bloody christ people will really start getting into macs then....! just last weekend here in malaysistan the mac was finally at an unbelievable price point, lowest ever, $1199 in local currency -- the original mac mini 1.25ghz combodrive. it was absolutely appalling though, the way they were selling it at the "pc fair" -- like it was a bloody piece of meat they were trying to pawn off on unsuspecting customers...
post #17 of 68
Quote:
Originally posted by sunilraman
yeah the xserve comment by Mr. Wu is bollocks (my favourite word this month, can you tell? ) that said "pent-up demand" is a gross understatement when it comes to apple computers. if they had the capacity and they slashed prices 30% across the line of iBooks, powerBooks, subnotebooks, Mac mini, bring in a Mac MiniTower, and did just a smidgen of advertising (1% of their after-tax nett profits) jesus bloody christ people will really start getting into macs then....! just last weekend here in malaysistan the mac was finally at an unbelievable price point, lowest ever, $1199 in local currency -- the original mac mini 1.25ghz combodrive. it was absolutely appalling though, the way they were selling it at the "pc fair" -- like it was a bloody piece of meat they were trying to pawn off on unsuspecting customers...

Bet you're looking forward to a local Apple Store

So am I ... Scotland is a few too many hundred miles from the big place in London:
http://www.apple.com/uk/retail/regen...ndopening.html

But when they do come to a city near you, they seem to know what they're doing! Hope you're not too far from Kuala Lumpur or Singapore, they should get a good one somtime in the decade at this rate....
post #18 of 68
Xserve to move to Intel early?
Seems unlikely to me and to some well-respected industry watchers:

What comes after Xserve G5? And the answer is, Xserve G5.

Now what does Wu know that the likes of Yager dont?
An early transition to Intel seems a given for Apples underpowered notebooks and Mac mini, but not for the Xserve if they up it to the latest Power Mac specs.
Id expect at least one rev with dual core G5, quads, pci-e, DDR2 (lower power!), and what have you.

Now if Intel somehow magically would be able to deliver Conroe or better as of January, Wu might be right.
But Xeon, Pentium M or Yonah in an Xserve? Oh lord deliver us.
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with a quack-quack here and a quack-quack there
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post #19 of 68
No Firewire?

According to an article at Powerpage, there is rumor/speculation that Firewire might be missing from the Intel iBooks. That would be a real bummer, as Firewire is an important part of my backup world. Being able to boot from Firewire in an emergency is a necessity for me, whether an entry level machine like an iBook or a high end machine like a PowerMac G5.
post #20 of 68
Quote:
Originally posted by Chucker
So an iMac G5 "offers industry-leading price-performance", whereas an Xserve G5, which is specced higher, does not? Granted, the Xserve hasn't really been updated in a while and doesn't yet feature PCIe nor DDR2, but it's still not exactly a "'weaker member' of Apple's product line".

Price-performance is the key word here. It's not just about being having a higher spec, it's about it's spec and price compare with others in it's market segment. The Xserve is a great machine but it hasn't been updated in a while. If it's due an update, and Apple is moving to Intel, it may make sense to just move straight.
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post #21 of 68
Quote:
Originally posted by david_oc
Price-performance is the key word here. It's not just about being having a higher spec, it's about it's spec and price compare with others in it's market segment. The Xserve is a great machine but it hasn't been updated in a while. If it's due an update, and Apple is moving to Intel, it may make sense to just move straight.

It is also about stability and reliability of the hardware and software. Apple's current server software is very stable, but if the intel verstion of it is just as stable then their is nothing holding them back except R&D budget and resources to develop the new systems. The Xserve will most likely use a completly different motherboard than the laptops or consumer models, so it is probably on a compleatly different scheduele for the transition. Given that and the fact that Apple will want to optamize the OS/hardware combination as much as possible to compete against other Unix servers as well as Windows servers. Also the current system does have some room to grow with the G5 to include Quad (dual dual core) processors which should help them compte well in the performance arena. I think that Apple would have to see some big cost reductions from an intel system to push the development of the Xserve at this point in time.
post #22 of 68
Quote:
Originally posted by Chucker
So an iMac G5 "offers industry-leading price-performance", whereas an Xserve G5, which is specced higher, does not? Granted, the Xserve hasn't really been updated in a while and doesn't yet feature PCIe nor DDR2, but it's still not exactly a "'weaker member' of Apple's product line".

It is also priced higher and it is used in a different market.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Xserves based on x86 in addition to the G5 based ones -- perhaps a 970MP/DDR2 based unit. The x86 unit would turn in better integer performance and might be more appropriate for some workloads.
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Providing grist for the rumour mill since 2001.
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post #23 of 68
I totally agree that cost was not the factor in moving to the Intel chip. The reason has always been the power consumption issues with regard to the CPUs used in the PowerBooks.

As to which Macs will be first to be make the switch I believe the portables and the consumer computers would be first to go. Because of the type of applications that usually run on the XServes, I am not so sure that a move to Intel would make a difference straight away. For high performance applications, where power consumption is not much of an issue the PowerPC chips used in the PowerMac and the XServe fit the bill right.

Thinking about it a bit more, maybe the computers that will move first are those still using the PowerPC G4, so that would mean the Portables and the Mac minis.
post #24 of 68
Quote:
Originally posted by Kansas
No Firewire?

According to an article at Powerpage, there is rumor/speculation that Firewire might be missing from the Intel iBooks. That would be a real bummer, as Firewire is an important part of my backup world. Being able to boot from Firewire in an emergency is a necessity for me, whether an entry level machine like an iBook or a high end machine like a PowerMac G5.

That'd be idiocy. You can't install a second drive inside a portable-- how else are you supposed to be able to boot a backup, or emergency drive? Booting from CD/DVD is dog-slow.

Do what you will, but harm none.

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Do what you will, but harm none.

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post #25 of 68
Quote:
Originally posted by david_oc
Price-performance is the key word here. It's not just about being having a higher spec, it's about it's spec and price compare with others in it's market segment. The Xserve is a great machine but it hasn't been updated in a while. If it's due an update, and Apple is moving to Intel, it may make sense to just move straight.

Once Conroe is out, that may make sense. But the current Xeon offerings are pathetic. Opteron would be a good alternative, but that's obviously not gonna happen. So I urge Apple to instead just upgrade to 970MP.
post #26 of 68
Quote:
Originally posted by ct77
Mine is 4 1/2 years old -- a G3 500 MHz dual-USB silver iBook.
(...) but honestly, my iBook is eminently usable for day-to-day work as a full-time student.

Just try an ibook G4, you will see a BIG difference... my DELL inspiron P3 600Mhz/windows 2k is much faster than my ibook G3 500 / X.4.3, and i bought them at the same time for almost the same price...
The ibook is just a mail/iTunes station now, while the PC is still more than OK for web/photos/video viewing and basic working...
post #27 of 68
sorry, double post
post #28 of 68
Quote:
Originally posted by ct77
3 year old iBook?

I got ya beat!

Mine is 4 1/2 years old -- a G3 500 MHz dual-USB silver iBook.

Now I've admittedly maxed out the RAM at 576 MB, and replaced the original 10 GB HD with a 40 GB drive, but honestly, my iBook is eminently usable for day-to-day work as a full-time student.

Those unfamiliar with Macintosh find it hard to believe, but it's very true, the OS gets faster with every release, and as a result the hardware can be very long-lived.

I have this machine, though with only 384MB RAM and the original 10GB HD. But I just supplanted it as my main machine with a new quad. It's very nice.
post #29 of 68
APPLE deserves its praise. I use to be a build it yourself computer person but spent way too much money and time building and playing inside my machines. Then 3 years ago my wife wanted me to get a small laptop to go to India with. I couldn't find one and wanted a beast. I foolishly walked into an APPLE store and there was this crappy 12 inch iBook. "Don't worry" I said "it will be too expensive." "Crap" I said "its $1000 less than the beast". So my wife urged me to get it and... it was Great. I could do so much more than I had ever expected on a computer. Sure you don't normally take notebooks apart but why would I. It had everything I needed at the time. Adding to my Macland I have purchased a new 1.9Ghz G5 iMac and I love it. APPLE is great and deserves praise for bringing fun and great product to market. As for Intel MAC's, as long as the systems are still closed boxes that have style I will be happy, and when I upgrade to a new iBook or PowerBook I will probably like to see if I can install Windows just for Lan Parties. I have a dream that Windows will run at full speed with Direct X support in an Apple Window. That way I can play more games with my friends. Still more games might come APPLES way now that the Chip will be the same. Wonder how long it will be before Intel only games come out for MAC's?
post #30 of 68
Quote:
Originally posted by ALPICH
APPLE [..] APPLE [..] APPLE [..] MAC's [..] APPLES [..] MAC's?

For your convenience, mistakes have been marked.
post #31 of 68
Quote:
Originally posted by Chucker
For your convenience, mistakes have been marked.

Ah, he's a switcher; cut 'im some slack.
post #32 of 68
Quote:
Originally posted by belzebuth
Just try an ibook G4, you will see a BIG difference... my DELL inspiron P3 600Mhz/windows 2k is much faster than my ibook G3 500 / X.4.3, and i bought them at the same time for almost the same price...
The ibook is just a mail/iTunes station now, while the PC is still more than OK for web/photos/video viewing and basic working...

Uhh...you're running the newest and best OS from Apple on that iBook, while the Dell is using a 6-year-old OS- of course it will be faster.
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post #33 of 68
there are tons of macs poping up over here in south florida.

on campus they are everywhere.


for some reason it kinda irks me.



my PB is about 3 years old and i gotta admit its time for an upgrade.
post #34 of 68
Quote:
Originally posted by StealthRider
Uhh...you're running the newest and best OS from Apple on that iBook, while the Dell is using a 6-year-old OS- of course it will be faster.

Well, in every second post, Apple users claim OS X gets only faster from release to release...

It is my observation too that 2K/XP is faster on similarly clocked hardware, while OS X is more usable and feels more modern.
post #35 of 68
Quote:
Originally posted by fuyutsuki
Bet you're looking forward to a local Apple Store

So am I ... Scotland is a few too many hundred miles from the big place in London:
http://www.apple.com/uk/retail/regen...ndopening.html

But when they do come to a city near you, they seem to know what they're doing! Hope you're not too far from Kuala Lumpur or Singapore, they should get a good one somtime in the decade at this rate....


heh. i am in KL at the moment yeah in terms of apple asia pacific, australia (sydney+melbourne), singapore, and japan are rocking on and both the apple management and consumers and partners "get it". in these cases the iPod phenomenon has fueled tremendous growth and bolstered the previously known but boutique brand called Apple.

in KL though, let alone the rest of malaysia, i would assert that apple malaysia has only been in it to move X amount of product for X amount of profit ~ generally i feel this is because apple malaysia is directly supervised by apple singapore and volumes of units and revenues is maybe 10% compared to what singapore is able to move.... hmmm

i'm afraid the market here is still too small for apple cupertino to establish a more official presence here. yeah, maybe 2008-2010 with a complete portfolio of affordable digital media players, home theatres, personal computers, pdas, and phones

btw is apple store Sheffield closer to you now
post #36 of 68
Quote:
Originally posted by Smircle
Well, in every second post, Apple users claim OS X gets only faster from release to release...

It is my observation too that 2K/XP is faster on similarly clocked hardware, while OS X is more usable and feels more modern.

heh. that claim is certainly very well founded. feel free to dig up benchmarks or study it yourself -- get a G4 800mhz with say 256mb ram. run 10.0 then 10.1 then 10.2 then 10.3 then 10.4 then 10.4.3 on it and you'll see

yeah, 2k/XP does sometimes feel a bit faster on "similarly clocked hardware" but once you load a few programs and have background processes, it generally all goes to shit with unexpected pauses, some lockups, etc. etc. process priority handling even in XP is totally fucked. i have found xp to not be too bad, but only after a while of tinkering and experimentation with turning off a whole load of bollocks services, not installing antivirus, not using java, selective hardware management (eg. not using rubbish wifi pci cards and their bollocks drivers) and selective driver management and also a long but fruitful voyage of overclocking.

edit: and also manually setting process priorities when having several background processes eg. video encoding, bittorrents, etc.
post #37 of 68
Quote:
Originally posted by Chucker
For your convenience, mistakes have been marked.

So what are the mistakes. I am unsure what you mean. Are they not APPLE COMPUTERS. Are they not iMacs and eMacs. What is your point. If it is because I used capitals then you are probably upset that I also refer to GOD as GOD and when I talk about GOD as HIM I use HIM. and JESUS gets the same helping. Now the real question is do I want to place APPLE at the same level as GOD. The answer is no. So I will now use APPle to signify that they are under GOD and of course myself ALPICH. hehehe. that was fun. I crack myself up.

Seriously. What did I do wrong and are errors hated that much it deserve a post in the forum? Because if they are I am sure to get a lot of posts as my English skills lack greatly.
post #38 of 68
Quote:
Originally posted by ALPICH
Are they not APPLE COMPUTERS.

No, they are Apple Computer. Note also the lack of plural.

Quote:
If it is because I used capitals

Yes.

Not to mention putting an apostrophe where it doesn't belong, for a plural: "MAC's" as opposed to "Macs", and not putting it where it does belong: "APPLES" as opposed to "Apple's".

Anal? Yes, I am. I consider people who type like you impolite, and I don't accept your excuse that you're not a native speaker -- I'm not either.
post #39 of 68
Quote:
Originally posted by Chucker
No, they are Apple Computer. Note also the lack of plural.



Yes.

Not to mention putting an apostrophe where it doesn't belong, for a plural: "MAC's" as opposed to "Macs", and not putting it where it does belong: "APPLES" as opposed to "Apple's".

Anal? Yes, I am. I consider people who type like you impolite, and I don't accept your excuse that you're not a native speaker -- I'm not either.

There are other reason other than being impolite. I am a native speaker. I never claimed to be anything else, just not good at it. The fact that I now have a degree (all be it in social work) is a mirical. As for you bein Anal? Your Problem! I suggest Milk of Magnesia. It is a great laxitive that might get loose your carrot. I do however take your point about Mac's being Macs. Slip of the typing a number of times. As for APPle COMPuters (Partially Capitals - being Less that GOD All Capitals) I guess you will have something to waist your Anality on. (I still crack myself up). Finally... I didn't ask for your approval nor should I have to seek it for the way I use the English Language. So in conclusion, like a good Ozzi. Fair suck of the sab mate, liten up yer old codger, its just words, She'll be right and Oroo, yeh but.
post #40 of 68
Quote:
Originally posted by ALPICH
As for APPle COMPuters (Partially Capitals - being Less that GOD All Capitals)

I first thought you were just silly. Then I thought you were a troll. Now I know you're both.

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