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Apple Specialist say holiday Macs sales up year-over-year

post #1 of 17
Thread Starter 
After speaking with 20 Apple Specialist this week, research and investment firm PiperJaffray said that resellers are experiencing stronger holiday sales of both iPods and Macs this year verses last year, with only a "handful" of customers choosing to hold off their new Mac purchases until Intel Macs are unveiled.

"As we expected, the majority of Apple specialists we spoke with are expecting December 2005 to be up from December 2004," analyst Gene Munster wrote in a research note released to clients on Thursday morning. "Specifically, 60-percent of resellers expect [this year] be stronger than [last] and half of the 60-percent indicated that [this year] will be "significantly better" than [last]."

Several Specialist resellers indicated that this holiday season is up more than 30-percent compared to last year, saying both iPod and Mac sales are up year-over-year. iMac sales appear to be the strongest, with 75-percent of Apple Specialist reporting that the all-in-one desktop is selling better than they would have expected.

"We have gotten a lot of questions regarding the potential for Apple customers to slow down Mac buying ahead of next year's Intel transition," Munster wrote. "We asked the 20 Apple resellers if they are seeing evidence of this trend. 60-percent of value added resellers (VARs) in our sample said they have seen a few customers indicating that they intend to wait until next year to see what Apple releases, but in all cases this was a small group of customers."

Meanwhile, the analyst corroborates reports that indicate Apple is doing a better job of providing iPod supply for it's top-tier Apple Specialist stores than expected.

"40-percent of resellers said that they have at least one size/color of all varieties of iPod," Munster wrote. "45-percent indicated that they have patchy supply, which in most cases meant that they were missing the 30GB and 60GB iPod." Only 15-percent of resellers said they were completely sold out of all iPods.

The analyst accurately points out that Apple's "pecking order" for iPod supply is: Apple retail stores, Apple specialist VARs, and then standard resellers and "big-box" retailers, in that order.

PiperJaffray maintains its Outperform rating on Apple shares with a price target of $80.
post #2 of 17
"Specifically, 60-percent of resellers expect [this year] be stronger than [last] and half of the 60-percent indicated that [this year] will be "significantly better" than [last]."

That's great to hear, but what about the other 40%?

According to this quote, 30% (6 specialists) said "significantly better" (which I'll take to mean, say, 10-20% higher sales?)

Another 30% (6) said "stronger" (which I'll take to mean 5-10% higher?)

What about the other 40% (8), however? I'm assuming most of them said "about the same"?
post #3 of 17
I should have been in the stock analysing business.

"After talking to numerous teenagers (my own two kids) I can conclude that "iPods Rules". Based on those facts I conclude that the estimated sales this quarter is 8,745,821 units. We therefore set the target price of the Apple stock at $78"

I would love to pull facts out like that. My own field would be so much easier

"After a comprehensive poll among 12 random chosen respondents, interviewed at the bicycle rack at the central train station, I can conclude that commuters using bikes has gone up from 40% last year to a whopping 100%. Based on this fact I recommend all roads in Copenhagen transformed to bike lanes"

"My work have resulted in an amazing fact. People want the police away from the street. To get a good picture I asked ALL inmates at the prisons in Copenhagen (since they must be the ones who have the most frequent contact with the police they are also the ones who have the most qualified opinions) and they all responded "Sack all those fascist police officers"."
"I reject your reality and substitute it with my own" - President Bush
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"I reject your reality and substitute it with my own" - President Bush
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post #4 of 17
Heh...I'll do ya one better.

Last year, sometime in mid-May, a local TV news station ran a fluff piece about the ever-growing economics and business behind the traditional High School Senior Prom. It was mostly interviews with local limo & tuxedo rental companies, dressmakers, etc, about how the prom has "become" big business (as if it wasn't in years past).

The part that I rolled my eyes at was when the reporter stated, in an oh-so-shocked tone of voice, that "the prom season now accounts for a whopping 20% of annual tuxedo & limo rental revenue."

Wow, 20% eh?

Lessee...when does "prom season" traditionally run? From, say, late April through the first week of June, perhaps, or around 7 weeks?

Gee, that's about 13.5% of the year.

Imagine that, 20% of the revenue is made in 13.5% of the year. Call in the National Guard!!
post #5 of 17
Christ. Is PiperJaffray in bed with Apple? It seems like every other day they upgrade, praise, gush all over Apple.

Don't get me wrong, I love Apple - and even own their stock. But too much praise leads to very high expectations.
+
post #6 of 17
Quote:
Originally posted by Anders
I should have been in the stock analysing business.

"After talking to numerous teenagers (my own two kids) I can conclude that "iPods Rules". Based on those facts I conclude that the estimated sales this quarter is 8,745,821 units. We therefore set the target price of the Apple stock at $78"

I would love to pull facts out like that. My own field would be so much easier

"After a comprehensive poll among 12 random chosen respondents, interviewed at the bicycle rack at the central train station, I can conclude that commuters using bikes has gone up from 40% last year to a whopping 100%. Based on this fact I recommend all roads in Copenhagen transformed to bike lanes"

"My work have resulted in an amazing fact. People want the police away from the street. To get a good picture I asked ALL inmates at the prisons in Copenhagen (since they must be the ones who have the most frequent contact with the police they are also the ones who have the most qualified opinions) and they all responded "Sack all those fascist police officers"."

Anders, whatever you're smoking, I want some
post #7 of 17
Quote:
Originally posted by Anders
I should have been in the stock analysing business.

"After talking to numerous teenagers (my own two kids) I can conclude that "iPods Rules". Based on those facts I conclude that the estimated sales this quarter is 8,745,821 units. We therefore set the target price of the Apple stock at $78"

I would love to pull facts out like that. My own field would be so much easier

"After a comprehensive poll among 12 random chosen respondents, interviewed at the bicycle rack at the central train station, I can conclude that commuters using bikes has gone up from 40% last year to a whopping 100%. Based on this fact I recommend all roads in Copenhagen transformed to bike lanes"

"My work have resulted in an amazing fact. People want the police away from the street. To get a good picture I asked ALL inmates at the prisons in Copenhagen (since they must be the ones who have the most frequent contact with the police they are also the ones who have the most qualified opinions) and they all responded "Sack all those fascist police officers"."

That was actually very good.
post #8 of 17
Quote:
Originally posted by leobag
Christ. Is PiperJaffray in bed with Apple? It seems like every other day they upgrade, praise, gush all over Apple.

Don't get me wrong, I love Apple - and even own their stock. But too much praise leads to very high expectations.
+

Most analysts have been saying the same thing.

The worst was last week when we were told that the stock was "fully valued", which, of course, meant that it went down 4 bucks. It's almost back to where it hit its high, but not quite. I thought, for a while, today that it would get to $74.50, but it was not to be.

Screw these daytraders!
post #9 of 17
Quote:
Originally posted by melgross
Most analysts have been saying the same thing.

The worst was last week when we were told that the stock was "fully valued", which, of course, meant that it went down 4 bucks. It's almost back to where it hit its high, but not quite. I thought, for a while, today that it would get to $74.50, but it was not to be.

Screw these daytraders!


I'm sorry, but these so-called analysts (how many people have actually listened to the Apple Quarterly Earnings calls?) are going by the absolute thinnest slices of information. They might as well just send a couple dozen people down to the Apple stores to count sales, because I guarantee you they don't have access to all the facts. Ridiculous. And of course, in a "going forward" mode, they haven't got a clue what Steve has up his sleeves... It makes me laugh.

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post #10 of 17
Quote:
Originally posted by SpamSandwich
I'm sorry, but these so-called analysts (how many people have actually listened to the Apple Quarterly Earnings calls?) are going by the absolute thinnest slices of information. They might as well just send a couple dozen people down to the Apple stores to count sales, because I guarantee you they don't have access to all the facts. Ridiculous. And of course, in a "going forward" mode, they haven't got a clue what Steve has up his sleeves... It makes me laugh.

It's not that simple though. Some of these guys say that they visit the factories. I believe that. My own broker goes on some of these trips.
post #11 of 17
Quote:
Originally posted by melgross
It's not that simple though. Some of these guys say that they visit the factories. I believe that. My own broker goes on some of these trips.


OK, I can certainly believe that, but seriously now... "Breakout" data about about individual product sales is never disclosed, and Apple plays everything very close to the vest. All the analyst has to go by is whatever they can glean from what is observable... and they certainly have no information about forward looking plans, beyond rumor.

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post #12 of 17
Quote:
Originally posted by SpamSandwich
OK, I can certainly believe that, but seriously now... "Breakout" data about about individual product sales is never disclosed, and Apple plays everything very close to the vest. All the analyst has to go by is whatever they can glean from what is observable... and they certainly have no information about forward looking plans, beyond rumor.

But these guys have sources that we, and the rumors sites, don't have. That's why the WSJ was able to get a handle on the x86 switch while none of the rumor sites had any idea that anything was happening. People in the industry who were at the levels to know it, talked to them.

This happens with many of the analysts as well. They go to the factories, speak to the managers, look at the production lines. go to the suppliers of the factories, find out what parts they are making, in what numbers. By knowing what parts are in different devices, and who makes them for whom, they can see what's coming down the pike.

Company "A" makes a part which goes to company "B" two weeks after it's made. Company "B" incorporates it into a sub-assembly that gets sent to company "C" a week after that. That sub-assembly then goes to the production company which stocks it until the rest of the parts have arrived. Then it gets the word from the company it's doing the manufacturing for to begin production testing. After a week to two weeks (hopefully) they are ready for production.

So by visiting the factories, these guys can often find out what is being planned a month or two in advance. Sometimes even further foward.
post #13 of 17
Quote:
Originally posted by melgross
But these guys have sources that we, and the rumors sites, don't have. That's why the WSJ was able to get a handle on the x86 switch while none of the rumor sites had any idea that anything was happening. People in the industry who were at the levels to know it, talked to them.

This happens with many of the analysts as well. They go to the factories, speak to the managers, look at the production lines. go to the suppliers of the factories, find out what parts they are making, in what numbers. By knowing what parts are in different devices, and who makes them for whom, they can see what's coming down the pike.

Company "A" makes a part which goes to company "B" two weeks after it's made. Company "B" incorporates it into a sub-assembly that gets sent to company "C" a week after that. That sub-assembly then goes to the production company which stocks it until the rest of the parts have arrived. Then it gets the word from the company it's doing the manufacturing for to begin production testing. After a week to two weeks (hopefully) they are ready for production.

So by visiting the factories, these guys can often find out what is being planned a month or two in advance. Sometimes even further foward.


Anything in the collective hopper about a Mac mini entertainment center DVR? 8)

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post #14 of 17
From factory visits no one has seen Intel Mac's being manufactured.
post #15 of 17
Quote:
Originally posted by TenoBell
From factory visits no one has seen Intel Mac's being manufactured.

Possibly hiding them in Santa's giant new fab.

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

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post #16 of 17
Quote:
Originally posted by leobag
Christ. Is PiperJaffray in bed with Apple?

Leobag:

Yes.

Truly:
Jesus Christ
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You can't quantify how much I don't care -- Bob Kevoian of the Bob and Tom Show.
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post #17 of 17
Quote:
Originally posted by TenoBell
From factory visits no one has seen Intel Mac's being manufactured.

That's true. And it's why two different people said that they didn't think they would be out until June.

I hope they're wrong. But, we'll see.
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