i honestly think its still very much an early adopter market, and posters to this thread have been sucked into believeing that because they have made a commitment to buy or HAVE bought... that EVERYONE else has too.. which is simply not true.
This is an extremely important point. Neither format can make it as more than a niche product until there is a critical mass of machines out there and in use, and this means adoption by the mass consumer market. Besides newness, price and availability, two things are keeping consumers holding onto their credit cards-- lack of critical mass of HDTVs in use and competing formats, which turns consumers off.
HDTVs are selling well and prices for flat panels are dropping, but it's still going to take a couple of years until prices reach affordability for most people. Even if one of the formats drops out next year, it's still going to take several years to see if consumers will go for the survivor or stay with the good old DVD format.
What I look to happen is both formats limping along for the next 2 - 3 unless, of course, one of them reaches a point where losses become company-threatening and they throw in the towel. Which raises the question as to who has the deepest pockets. By the end of that time there should be a clear idea whether consumers are going to accept a form of HD DVD and which one.
In my own case, I recently went from a 36" 4x3 CRT to a 50" Panny plasma and the experience going from watching HD TV on the CRT to the larger plasma was mind blowing. It makes me more receptive to one of the HD DVD formats. I went from laserdisc to DVD when the price of a DVD player dropped to $400. However, even though I can afford to, there's no way I'll buy into competing formats.
I must say though that the reviews on the PS3 as a BR player are very tempting. On the AVS Forum's BR board there was a thread from someone very affluent who tested all the BR players and found, much to her surprise, that the PS3 outperformed the 3 stand-alone players. She ended up using the PS3 in her main HT and one of the stand-alones in her smaller one. If there wasn't a format war, I'd be tempted to buy one of the HD/BR players even if it becomes a niche format. But with the format war, no thanks.