Originally posted by Chris Cuilla
I strongly disagree. Apple's stock dip this week was not about Google Video (which is a joke).
If you are implying this about me, you are wrong again.
On some things, yes. Not everything. Google is going through the "King Midas" period (where everything thing could possibly touch will turn to gold...so some think).
Ummm...in truth it has been bouncing back and forth over the past few years. That said...I'll bet the thing people identify with the Google brand is relatively limited (search).
I believe you are very, very wrong on this. There have a been a lot of reasons for Apple's current stock dip (oh...and Googles too BTW)...some ambiguity about Intel iMca sales, the Disney/Pixar deal and what it might mean for Steve Jobs to be on the Disney board, general technology sell-off, profit-taking, maybe even rumors of Microsoft getting into the digital music player business. Google, if it is anyof it, is an extremely small part of it.
BTW...don't make the mistake of assuming I am dismissing Google altogether...I just think your analysis and intepretation of current events and circumstances is wrong.
I don't know where you get your info, but mine was from the Times and the WSJ, as well as Forbes alerts that they send me throughout the day.
There has been a lot written about this, this week.
And, don't say that it's a joke. It may be a joke to you, but unless you control millions of Apple shares, it doesn't matter.
The "King Midas Touch", is the thing that everyone is talking about. I agree, and so do investors, that their video store, right now, isn't very good. That's not the problem. Even Google has acknowledged that. But, they can fix those problems.
The fear is that Goolgle is a very common destination for most people, while iTunes isn't. This could enable them to get a good deal of business.
Look, I'm not saying that it will happen. But, this is the talk going around in the investor community right now.
I know all about the other reasons for Apple's dip. I've enumerated them very clearly over the last two weeks, on this very site. But this is the reason for the last drop that occurred over the past few days.
Perception is the main driver behind market pricing. Apple is around a 30P/E right now, after the drop. Google is close to 100!!
Is Google worth a 100 P/E? I certainly don't think so. But others do.
I just don't think that Jobs is too smart to hold products and services back, if they are ready for market. I also don't think that he is too smart to hold back from discussing these services if they are almost ready. If he talked about a movies service (assuming that Apple is coming out with one as everyone seems to assume), then that would staunch the drop, and put everyone on notice that Apple isn't standing by.
If he plans to wait until April 1st to make some big announcements, as he strongly hinted at, then that's a big mistake. That's over 2 months away.
If he announced it now, it would be too soon for anyone else to come up with something else. It takes quite a while to put these things together.
Again, I'm NOT saying that Google will be successful with their video, and any music service that they might come up with, just that the investor community is concerned, right now, that they might.