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Analyst sees new Macs, Pro apps, full-length video at special event

post #1 of 38
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Analysts for American Technology Research have started to weigh in with their product predictions for Apple's recently announced special media event, which is set to take place during the last day of February.

"We believe Apple will take the opportunity to round out its Intel Mac portfolio 6 - 9 months ahead of plan with a new widescreen consumer notebook (likely called "MacBook") and entry-level Mac mini, both of which will include a remote control and Front Row software," analyst Shaw Wu wrote in a research note released to clients early Wednesday morning.

Wu believes some of the strong selling points of the new consumer notebook will be its unique design, small size and widescreen display. He believes pricing should fall in the $1299-$1499 range.

The analyst also sees the possibility that Apple will announce that its Pro software applications like Aperture, Final Cut Pro, and Motion are now Intel native and may be ready as early as March. "We believe this is a good time to let its professional customers know," Wu wrote.

Rounding out his predictions, the analyst also thinks there is a "greater than 50 percent chance" that Apple will roll out the first full length feature films that will be available for download from the company's iTunes Music Store. He also sees Apple reaching the 1 billion iTunes downloads milestone by the time the Feb. 28th event rolls around.

While Wu also vouches knowledge of an ongoing development at Apple to produce a widescreen video iPod, he believes the device is not yet ready for prime time.

"Keep in mind the current video iPod has only been out since October and continues to be a top seller, the least seasonally impacted out of the iPod family," the analyst wrote. "Areas we would like to see the video iPod improve are its video battery life and more robust TV connectivity."

Despite his predictions, Wu is sure to point out that Apple chief executive Steve Jobs could have some unanticipated surprises tucked up the sleeve of his black turtleneck and "may make an announcement that no one anticipated."

"We will not attempt to guess what it is and let Steve surprise us," he added.

American Technology Research continues to rate Apple shares a "Buy" with a price target of $101.
post #2 of 38
Analyst bashing is cheap and easy, but it really does sound as if all this guy did was regurgitate Internet rumors to cobble together his "research note".
post #3 of 38
Quote:
Originally posted by AppleInsider
Analysts for American Technology Research have started to weigh in with their product predictions for Apple's recently announced special media event, which is set to take place during the last day of February...
..."We believe Apple will take the opportunity to round out its Intel Mac portfolio 6 - 9 months ahead of plan with a new widescreen consumer notebook (likely called "MacBook") and entry-level Mac mini, both of which will include a remote control and Front Row software," analyst Shaw Wu wrote in a research note released to clients early Wednesday morning...
Despite his predictions, Wu is sure to point out that Apple chief executive Steve Jobs could have some unanticipated surprises tucked up the sleeve of his black turtleneck and "may make an announcement that no one anticipated."
"We will not attempt to guess what it is and let Steve surprise us," he added.

I am guessing this is code for :"Steve Jobs is coming out of the closet and will
announce that Brokeback Mountain will street on iTunes same day it will be street on DVD. This will make it the first full-length film to be released on iTunes".
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post #4 of 38
This guy is the very definition of Drinking the Kool-Aid.

Ugh.

Hello! "some fun new products" is NOT going to pan out to be the introduction for the long-brewing full-length movie streaming/download service. Or, very likely, *anything* much more than a new line of iPod accessories and/or special edition models.
post #5 of 38
Quote:
Originally posted by AppleInsider
Analysts for American Technology Research have started to weigh in with their product predictions for Apple's recently announced special media event, which is set to take place during the last day of February.

"We believe Apple will take the opportunity to round out its Intel Mac portfolio 6 - 9 months ahead of plan with a new widescreen consumer notebook (likely called "MacBook") and entry-level Mac mini, both of which will include a remote control and Front Row software," analyst Shaw Wu wrote in a research note released to clients early Wednesday morning.

Wu believes some of the strong selling points of the new consumer notebook will be its unique design, small size and widescreen display. He believes pricing should fall in the $1299-$1499 range.

The analyst also sees the possibility that Apple will announce that its Pro software applications like Aperture, Final Cut Pro, and Motion are now Intel native and may be ready as early as March. "We believe this is a good time to let its professional customers know," Wu wrote.

Rounding out his predictions, the analyst also thinks there is a "greater than 50 percent chance" that Apple will roll-out the first full-length feature films that will be available for download from the company's iTunes Music Store. He also sees Apple reaching the 1 billion iTunes downloads milestone by the time the Feb. 28th event rolls around.

While Wu also vouches knowledge of an ongoing development at Apple to produce a widescreen video iPod, he believes the device is not yet ready for prime time.

"Keep in mind the current video iPod has only been out since October and continues to be a top seller, the least seasonally impacted out of the iPod family," the analyst wrote. "Areas we would like to see the video iPod improve are its video battery life and more robust TV connectivity."

Despite his predictions, Wu is sure to point out that Apple chief executive Steve Jobs could have some unanticipated surprises tucked up the sleeve of his black turtleneck and "may make an announcement that no one anticipated."

"We will not attempt to guess what it is and let Steve surprise us," he added.

American Technology Research continues to rate Apple shares a "Buy" with a price target of $101.

That seems pretty accurate to me.. There are plenty of (12" iBooks & PowerBooks) for sale today & what better time to introduce their widescreen MacBooks counterparts or maybe replacements, who knows.. I just noticed that 12.1" laptops are selling in the PC market, maybe they'll replace the existing 12" iBooks & PowerBooks in the future.. As for the Mac mini, it's just a natural upgrade with frontrow & posibly some new features...

Looking forward to the event..
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post #6 of 38
SOme people are making their money much too easy.

I could code an Applescript that could do any Apple analysists job for a fraction of the cost.
"I reject your reality and substitute it with my own" - President Bush
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post #7 of 38
Apple will release inovative products with novel designs and features. There may be surprises. I make alot of money to tell you this.

Sincerely,

Dogbert Wu
Dogbert and Catbert Consulting INC
post #8 of 38
I expect more "fun" and less "already assumed to be coming anyway."
post #9 of 38
Several other analysts see ibooks coming as well as some other products. See link below

http://money.cnn.com/2006/02/22/tech...prod/index.htm
post #10 of 38
I'm surprised this event won't be held on April 1 -- their big 3-0.
post #11 of 38
Quote:
Wu believes some of the strong selling points of the new consumer notebook will be its unique design, small size and widescreen display. He believes pricing should fall in the $1299-$1499 range.

That is not a consumer pricepoint for laptops.

Consumers are expecting to pay $599-1199 for your basica laptop and more only if it's a high end unit. I doubt the iBook is going to have the features to warrant a $1500 pricepoint.

Final Cut Pro updates are coming at NAB. Apple has already told Pro users that they can get a UB version for $49. I really would like mr Wu's job because obviously you don't have to have much real information.
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post #12 of 38
Quote:
Originally posted by SoopaDrive
I'm surprised this event won't be held on April 1 -- their big 3-0.

I think this is a relatively low key affair I see no reason why it precludes a more high profile event to take place on April 1 - should Apple wish to. Indeed this may well be an event to show some 'filler' type products and update that would get lost at such a higher profile event.
post #13 of 38
From the CNN article:

"He thinks that iBooks will come cheaper than the company's Macbook Pro line of Intel-based laptops, which replaced the company's Power Book line, targeted at professional users"



I could have told you that lol.....
post #14 of 38
Quote:
Originally by Shaw Wu via AppleInsider

Rounding out his predictions, the analyst also thinks there is a "greater than 50 percent chance" that Apple will roll-out the first full-length feature films that will be available for download from the company's iTunes Music Store.



I tried to download the free show from the music store last night. Even at it's totally sucky reduced resolution that thing took forever, and it was only a 40 minute TV show. 120 minutes worth of a decent resolution movie would take longer to download than it would to watch.
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post #15 of 38
Quote:
Originally posted by SoopaDrive
I'm surprised this event won't be held on April 1 -- their big 3-0.

I made a comment back (not long after MacWorld I think) that offered my belief that Apple will try and figure out how to make some kind of announcement almost every month this year. They are pretty good at being in the news.
post #16 of 38
Quote:
Originally posted by SoopaDrive
I'm surprised this event won't be held on April 1 -- their big 3-0.

Don't worry, there will be ANOTHER event. I agree that this year we may see one a month on average.
post #17 of 38
Quote:
Originally posted by Chris Cuilla
I made a comment back (not long after MacWorld I think) that offered my belief that Apple will try and figure out how to make some kind of announcement almost every month this year. They are pretty good at being in the news.

I agree. The amount of excitement they generated last September / October with their special events was unprecedented.

The new Apple is very different from the days when they would hold announcements for MWSF / MWNY - I think Apple realises they need to dripfeed the good news rather than have 2-3 major announcements per year.
post #18 of 38
Oh and pleeeease let their be new iBooks next week.

That is all.
post #19 of 38
If Apple wanted to come out with a 13" widescreen iBook replacement this soon, they could've done it already. I continue to believe they'll focus on their "pro" grade Macs where they can charge a premium for the hardware. An iBook replacement makes more sense around summer just in time for the fall educational market.

That said, I'm still hoping they surprise all of us and release the iTablet.
post #20 of 38
Quote:
Originally posted by pmjoe
If Apple wanted to come out with a 13" widescreen iBook replacement this soon, they could've done it already. I continue to believe they'll focus on their "pro" grade Macs where they can charge a premium for the hardware. An iBook replacement makes more sense around summer just in time for the fall educational market.

Ummm...major (school) education purchasing happens before fall...spring actually.
post #21 of 38
Quote:
Originally posted by AppleInsider
"We believe Apple will take the opportunity to round out its Intel Mac portfolio 6 - 9 months ahead of plan with a new widescreen consumer notebook (likely called "MacBook") and entry-level Mac mini, both of which will include a remote control and Front Row software," analyst Shaw Wu wrote in a research note released to clients early Wednesday morning.

(emphasis mine)

Lame of Wu to exclude Powermac and Xserve upgrades from his idea of a rounded-out Intel Mac portfolio, even if his implied intention was to only include consumer products. Frankly, it wouldn't surprise me if he completely forgot and ignored them in his unanalytic parroting of the obvious.
post #22 of 38
I would place a lot of credibility on the wall street analysts predictions. I think iBook announcement very likely. Three analysts are predicting that. Seems that Apple likes to keep the street informed, probably to prevent stock hits from surprises. If I recall correctly ,the WSJ was one of the first media outlets to predict Apple's switch to intel.
post #23 of 38
Quote:
Originally posted by Anders
SOme people are making their money much too easy.

I could code an Applescript that could do any Apple analysists job for a fraction of the cost.

Then do it. Put the B-schooler out of work & make a few million while you're at it.
post #24 of 38
Quote:
Originally posted by hmurchison
That is not a consumer pricepoint for laptops.

Consumers are expecting to pay $599-1199 for your basica laptop and more only if it's a high end unit. I doubt the iBook is going to have the features to warrant a $1500 pricepoint.

Final Cut Pro updates are coming at NAB. Apple has already told Pro users that they can get a UB version for $49. I really would like mr Wu's job because obviously you don't have to have much real information.

I was wondering when someone was going to comment on the ludicrous price range for the iBook.
post #25 of 38
Quote:
Originally posted by pmjoe
If Apple wanted to come out with a 13" widescreen iBook replacement this soon, they could've done it already.

What do you mean ALREADY? They just started shipping macbook pros less than a week ago. Other than announcing them simultaneous with the MPB's and iMac's, I can't imagine how apple would have announced the ibook any sooner.

I do agree that the ibook replacement has to come in at most the same prices as the ones they're replacing. Raising prices would cause a BIG backlash.
post #26 of 38
Kasper, I'm begging you. Stop. Please stop pretending to be journalist by putting out these pathetic stories about Shaw Wu and his sorry-ass reports. Give us real rumors from your "Insiders" or rename this place to "AppleAnalyst."

Seriously, anymore I open up new articles around here thinking, "What kind of crap has Kasper come up with today? How is he going to write a bias into the article? How bad will the grammar be?"

I'm sorry, but it's true. I'm sure a lot of others are thinking it but don't want to come out and say it.
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post #27 of 38
Quote:
Originally posted by hmurchison
That is not a consumer pricepoint for laptops.

Consumers are expecting to pay $599-1199 for your basica laptop and more only if it's a high end unit. I doubt the iBook is going to have the features to warrant a $1500 pricepoint.

I have yet to see a core-duo laptop under $1000 on the PC side. Now if these MacBooks are core-solo that's another story but otherwise it's not realistic to expect such low pricing. I think $999 for an entry-level model would be fine. Maybe $899 for education.

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post #28 of 38
Quote:
Originally posted by andrewjnyc
Analyst bashing is cheap and easy, but it really does sound as if all this guy did was regurgitate Internet rumors to cobble together his "research note".

Apparently we are all unpaid analysts.

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post #29 of 38
Quote:
Originally posted by 1984
I have yet to see a core-duo laptop under $1000 on the PC side. Now if these MacBooks are core-solo that's another story but otherwise it's not realistic to expect such low pricing. I think $999 for an entry-level model would be fine. Maybe $899 for education.

I don't expect sub $1000 Duo Core laptops until Q4 or Q1 2007. Consumer sweet spot is $700-$1099. Apple can definitely create a great product in this range. I'm looking forward to it.
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post #30 of 38
Quote:
Originally posted by hmurchison
I really would like mr Wu's job because obviously you don't have to have much real information.

Yeah, but watch out for his pigs...

;^p

I think iPod accessories sounds like a good guess...

Maybe the iPod Boombox, maybe the 'real' video iPod...

Hey, maybe they are gonna announce the new Apple MobileMe cellphone service, along with a bitching Apple designed cell/smart phone...

Mmm... MobileMe...
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post #31 of 38
Quote:
Originally posted by Anders
SOme people are making their money much too easy.

I could code an Applescript that could do any Apple analysists job for a fraction of the cost.

Tweak that statement and it is probably t-shirt-worthy:
http://www.thinkgeek.com/tshirts/frustrations/374d/
post #32 of 38
Quote:
Originally posted by minderbinder
What do you mean ALREADY? They just started shipping macbook pros less than a week ago. Other than announcing them simultaneous with the MPB's and iMac's, I can't imagine how apple would have announced the ibook any sooner.

These are the same rumors/analysts who have been claiming for months that the iBook would be the first out the door. If they were that wrong before, I see no reason to believe them now.
post #33 of 38
Quote:
Originally posted by hmurchison
I don't expect sub $1000 Duo Core laptops until Q4 or Q1 2007. Consumer sweet spot is $700-$1099. Apple can definitely create a great product in this range. I'm looking forward to it.


Dell has one out already. Inspiron E1705 without coupon.
http://www1.us.dell.com/content/topi...=19&l=en&s=dhs

17" display
1.67 ghz core duo
1gb ram
8x dual-layer burner
60gb hd
integrated graphics.

The cost of getting a x1300 in the macbook could be offset by going with the much smaller panel, plus by the time Apple ships them their will be about 20-30% pricecut on duos and everything else by then.
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post #34 of 38
I can't help but think this event is all about entertainment. After all, isn't entertainment inherently supposed to be "fun?"

That said, I expect cool iPod stuff and maybe a Mac media center. If the media center is released, we will probably see full length films announced on the iTMS.

How cool would it be for Apple to release the "true video iPod," a Mac media center, and full length movies from iTMS? Fun, yes?
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post #35 of 38
Well at least he's right for sure on one of his predictions.
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post #36 of 38
Quote:
Originally posted by Mac on a Mac
Apple will release inovative products with novel designs and features. There may be surprises. I make alot of money to tell you this.

Sincerely,

Dogbert Wu
Dogbert and Catbert Consulting INC

LOL!

We're all professionals here!
post #37 of 38
Quote:
Originally posted by 1984
I have yet to see a core-duo laptop under $1000 on the PC side. Now if these MacBooks are core-solo that's another story but otherwise it's not realistic to expect such low pricing. I think $999 for an entry-level model would be fine. Maybe $899 for education.

http://www.shop.com/op/~TravelMate_4...3?sourceid=298

$999 for core duo. Apple may do solo on the $999 and save duo for $1299 (funny, just days ago people were saying you couldn't do duo for $1299). But if the ibooks are a month or more off, prices may drop even more for duos, making it possible even in the cheap one. Who would have thought that macbooks would go from 1.8 to 2.16 BEFORE they shipped?

I agree that there will be an entertainment related announcement. But after that, an ibook or mini could be the "one more thing".
post #38 of 38
Quote:
Originally posted by tensdanny38
Dell has one out already. Inspiron E1705 without coupon.
http://www1.us.dell.com/content/topi...=19&l=en&s=dhs

Check that link again. They list a core solo in the $999.
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