He doesn't actually have many competitors. I'd say most people get their DVRs from their cable companies, not from a Best Buy shelf.
Well if someone rents a DVR from a cable company that performs the same function of a Tivo. This option will prevent that potential customer from buying a Tivo and paying for their service. That is the very definiton of a competitor.
Ah, wonderful. We've gone from "hasn't made a profit in 3 years" to "not overly profitable".
Alright let say this. Since we don't know how much it cost MS to develop MCE. Lets say selling 6.5 million copies they have recouped their initial investment. For a company as large as MS to really have a hit they need to sell in extremely large volume as in the hundreds of millions. 6.5 million will not have much positive impact on their bottom line or on their stock price.
MCE is a part of WindowsXP. And WindowsXP has been very profitable.
No MCE is an XP version. Hundreds of millions of copies of XP have been sold without MCE.
Most people buying Media Center bundled computers have no idea what do with it and don't use it. Because of this actual Media Center use has only marginally risen.
Do you have any numbers on this?
I've given you plenty of numbers and quotes from other sources that support what I've said. You've given nothing but your opinion. Give me some numbers or quotes that support your arguement.
Because MCE has not sold well as optional software the next tactic MS will use is bundling it into Vista with the hope people will actually begin to use it.
Where can I buy MCE as a standalone application?
MS first business model for MCE was to sell it only through OEM on specialized hardware. The consumer had to choose to buy this specialized hardware to use MCE. This is the optional part. Very few people opted to buy it.
Given a choice very few consumers chose to buy MCE so MS lowered the hardware requirements for MCE so that HP and Dell could bundle the software in $500 dollar computers. Now Dell sells MCE on nearly every computer they make, whether the consumer wants it or not.
Lowering the choice even further MS will now bundle MCE right into Vista. Hoping consumers will discover this new functionality and begin using it.
Anecdotal evidence is the best kind of evidence!
10 hours? I bet he's not exaggerating at all!
He may have been exaggerating his point, but his story is not the only one of how difficult MCE can be to set up.
TiVO is an entirely different animal.
WinMCE is merely an application bundled with a full-fledged operating system.
One is hardware based and the other is software based but they both perform many of the same functions. They have enough over lap that it is very unlikely that one house hold would have an MCE and Tivo.
Both of these products can be judged equally in the DVR market and up to this point neither product has been met with any extreme demand.
A DVR? Who says they have to market "a DVR"? Just some DVR software in a Mac mini will be fine. Or a Mac Small with one PCIExpress slot for a tuner expansion card. Not exactly brain surgery and not very cost intensive.
Its unlikely Apple would just create software that could turn any Mac into a DVR. Looking at MCE the set up process is too cumbersome and involved. Apple would want you to plug your television into their hardware and it just works. Much the way a Tivo does.
You are not comparing like with like. Number of people does not equal number of households. There are 8 to 9 million households in the U.S. with Tivo. You also fail to mention how many households have DVRs that are not Tivos.
Ok, their are estimated to be 109 million households in the United States. According to Tom Rogers CEO of Tivo 8-9 million households have a DVR. Which for an entire consumer product is still a very small number.
You are also failing to appreciate the "media center" growth potential. Here in the U.K., at least, "media center" PCs are only just starting to get media attention outside of PC magazines. There is now a lot of interest from HiFi and Home Cinema people. Why? Because only now is the hardware starting to live up to the promise. Windows Media Center came before its time, and that's why it hasn't done amazingly well yet. Trust me, this market is going to get a lot bigger.
Of course there is growth potential. I've never said that DVR's won't grow in the future. I'm talking about the present. At present there is lackluster consumer demand for DVR's. Even more lackluster for computer based Media Centers.
My personal estimate is people won't be too excited about MCE. After the average Joe/Jane have spent a long hard day at work with Windows machines. They want to come home during leisure time and have to deal with a Windows machine hooked to their television.