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Citigroup lifts Apple with new product predictions

post #1 of 49
Thread Starter 
Despite a number of product transitions that are conspiring against Apple Computer during its current (March) quarter, analysts for Citigroup said on Monday they expect new products introduced around the company's 30th anniversary in early April to fuel a rebound in the next quarter.

"We are upgrading shares of Apple this morning from Hold to Buy with a twelve-month price target of $82," wrote analyst Rich Gardner in a note to clients. The upgrade helped Apple shares gain nearly 5 percent in early morning trading.

Predicting a "slue of new products" will be introduction within the next six months, Gardner recommended clients begin to build positions in Apple shares.

"We expect a fairly eventful announcement around the date of the company's 30th anniversary on April 1," the analyst wrote. "Our checks suggest an Intel-based iBook and a refreshed iPod video with a larger screen and/or more storage capacity."

Gardner also believes the company could use its anniversary to announce that all Apple-branded software has been ported to run natively on Intel Macs, or roll out iTunes service enhancements.

In August, the analyst sees Apple wrapping up its Intel transition with new dual-core Power Macs based on Intel's Conroe desktop processor. The Power Mac announcement, which the analyst predicts will take place at company's annual World Wide Developers Conference, would also coincide with the first public demonstrations of Mac OS X 10.5 Leopard -- the company's next generation operating system due by 2007.

Looking even further in the Cupertino, Calif.-based company's future, Gardner predicts a redesigned iPod nano in the third calendar quarter of the year. "In addition to a new exterior, the industry transition to higher flash densities in [the third calendar quarter] should allow Apple to reduce iPod nano prices by roughly $50," he wrote. "A price reduction at the 4GB capacity sweet spot could drive a meaningful uplift in demand for the product."

Meanwhile, Gardner is just the latest of several analysts providing coverage on Apple who believe the company has revolutionary cellphone design brewing in its labs. "Slightly farther in the future, we expect Apple to introduce a phone with integrated mp3, photo and video capability at Macworld San Francisco in January 2007," he wrote.

According to the analyst, this presumed product pipeline would suggest that most of the risk associated with the Intel transition and iPod transitions will be behind Apple in time for the back-to-school selling season. However, Gardner notes that product transition woes during the March quarter could prevent the company from delivering meaningful upside to consensus revenue and earnings-per-share (EPS) estimates for the first time in several years.

"While Apple introduced Intel-based versions of the iMac, MacBook Pro and Mac Mini in early January and late February, recent channel checks with Apple stores suggest that the most profitable of these products -- the MacBook Pro -- remains in short supply," the analyst wrote. "Almost none of the U.S. Apple stores that we called last week had the MacBook Pro in stock and most still have waiting lists of between 5-50 people for the 1.83GHz version of the product." As a result, he believes Apple may not receive much retail-based revenue from the professional notebook line until next quarter.

He notes that Apple's decision to introduce the MacBook Pro with a base price of $1,999 has created a very large, but temporary, gap in its notebook product line. "The gap between the high-end iBook at $1,299 and the low-end MacBook Pro at $1,999 leaves Apple without an appealing price point in the important $1,499-1,799 range," Gardner wrote. He cautions that Apple's aggressive marketing of the performance improvement yielded by the transition may prompt consumers to defer the iBook purchases during the current quarter, pending an introduction of Intel-based models next quarter.

"Finally, we believe Apple is in the process of reducing iPod Video channel inventories in anticipation of a product refresh during [the second calendar quarter]" the analyst wrote. "While we do not know the exact nature of the new product, we believe it may have a larger screen and/or more storage capacity. Since Apple recognizes revenue on sales into third party retail, this inventory reduction could negatively affect iPod Video revenue during [the first calendar quarter]."

For the aforementioned reasons, Gardner reduced his March quarter revenue and EPS estimates from $4.8B and $0.48 to $4.5B and $0.45. However, Citigroup believes the recent decline in the Apple shares from $85 to $63 has left them priced fairly in regards to near-term risk or lack of positives from recent product transitions.

Citigroup analyst Richard Gardner was one of only very few analysts to accurately predict an Intel-based PowerBook at this year's Macworld expo.
post #2 of 49
I can't wait til the shares go back up to the $80's....and for the all the new products
post #3 of 49
Although it sounds like Citigroup is doing their Apple research by reading the rumor boards..
post #4 of 49
Quote:
Originally posted by canadianmacguy
Although it sounds like Citigroup is doing their Apple research by reading the rumor boards..

bingo.

these apple prophets keep rehashing the same rumors for months and months over and over again. sometimes even years (apple cell phone rumor has been around for years. wishful thinking i guess.)

and when they are right it is usually because they just predict a bunch of things! so they have to be right in part of what they say. sort of like horoscopes.

they just say pretty obvious stuff.

of course apple is releasing a new ibook. of course a new ipod is coming. with larger screen, ooh big news. what else would you expect?

"Hi and welcome to this apple special event. i want to introduce the new video ipod, it has a smaller screen"

retards.
post #5 of 49
Yes, in their defense, the people who research apple for a living do read the boards. They try and get as much info as they possibly can. These rumor boards are one of the best sources of apple info.

We, as a collective, debate and rehash probabilities and predict their outcomes.

So, very often we get it right. Or, we get the news 1-3 days ahead of everyone else.

In terms of the financial markets, 2 days is an eternity.

Yes, I also own aapl.
post #6 of 49
Quote:
Originally posted by TednDi
Yes, in their defense, the people who research apple for a living do read the boards. They try and get as much info as they possibly can. These rumor boards are one of the best sources of apple info.

We, as a collective, debate and rehash probabilities and predict their outcomes.

So, very often we get it right. Or, we get the news 1-3 days ahead of everyone else.

In terms of the financial markets, 2 days is an eternity.

Yes, I also own aapl.

Way back in the "early days" of the internet, there was a site called something like Idea Futures where you got a certain number of credits per week, and could buy and sell "shares" from other traders. Shares would be something like, well, one I created was KSNU - "Korea's North and South nations will unify" and have some expiration date.

It was interesting to see the movement in the shares and how they reflected popular belief in certain ideas and where they would lead. (There was also speculative trading on what people thought people would think, of course.) Seems like the Mac rumor scene should re-create this concept for each Apple Event.
post #7 of 49
Don't forget that the rumor boards are also fueled by these analysists.

Guesses on the rumor boards are bound to come true at some point in time. At least for a few of the ideas.

The analysts do talk to those who know more than the people working for the rumor sites, except when they get a piece of info from some employee who shouldn't have released it.

I've also been told that sometimes a site will buy the research report before it is made public, just as anyone who is willing to pay for it can do.
post #8 of 49
My shares are 4X now, and judging by the period I've owned the shares for, this year seems to be more focused on apple than the previous few years. There's a tangible something going on. There's an exitement around, with intel, leopard, the growing popularity of the iPod, iTunes, and the movie stuff. Then there's the flurry of patent applications and innovations at apple.

I think even through this transition year apple will outgross last years profits!


But it also worth nothing that I think 2007 will be a huge year for apple, "the year of apple". I'm going to go out on a limb and say that by Macworld 2008 apple will have 10% market share in the U.S. as far as computers are concerned. Maybe more, depending on the ideas up their sleeves!
And I think 2007 will see the arrival of an apple cellphone. Apple has proved it before, it's not afraid, Steve's not afraid to take risks.
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of a rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of a rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #9 of 49
Quote:
Originally posted by TednDi
Yes, in their defense, the people who research apple for a living do read the boards. They try and get as much info as they possibly can. These rumor boards are one of the best sources of apple info.

We, as a collective, debate and rehash probabilities and predict their outcomes.

So, very often we get it right. Or, we get the news 1-3 days ahead of everyone else.

In terms of the financial markets, 2 days is an eternity.

Yes, I also own aapl.

In short, we do their job for them and they get paid handsomely to regurgitate it in a more finanical approach.
post #10 of 49
Quote:
Originally posted by AppleInsider
"The gap between the high-end iBook at $1,299 and the low-end MacBook Pro at $1,999 leaves Apple without an appealing price point in the important $1,499-1,799 range," Gardner wrote.

So what, may I ask, is the 12" Powerbook G4 at $1499? A figment of my imagination?
Living life in glorious 4G HD (with a 2GB data cap).
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Living life in glorious 4G HD (with a 2GB data cap).
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post #11 of 49
Quote:
Originally posted by mdriftmeyer
In short, we do their job for them and they get paid handsomely to regurgitate it in a more finanical approach.

That's wishful thinking.
post #12 of 49
Please Apple announce an iPod with a bigger screen and bluetooth!!! PLEASE!!!

If anybody knows any rumors when a bluetooth iPod will appear please let me know, I am holding off upgrading my 60 GB color till then. (I hope it wont be too long, I like the video feature on 5G iPod).
post #13 of 49
Quote:
Originally posted by zpisnon
Please Apple announce an iPod with a bigger screen and bluetooth!!! PLEASE!!!

If anybody knows any rumors when a bluetooth iPod will appear please let me know, I am holding off upgrading my 60 GB color till then. (I hope it wont be too long, I like the video feature on 5G iPod).

Why would you hold off buying something because of rumors?

Most rumors are wrong. If you're happy with what you have now, then hold on to it. If not, then upgrade to a newer model that has the features you want.

But don't ever count on a rumor.
The best that can be said now, is that Apple will be having a big event late March to early April to celebrate their 30th anniversary. They have already mentioned this recently. The assumption is that they will release new products.

That's not so far away, so wait 'till then. But, if they don't come out with what you want, then don't chew your fingernails over it. you can wait forever for what you want, and never get it.
post #14 of 49
Quote:
Originally posted by melgross
Why would you hold off buying something because of rumors?

Most rumors are wrong. If you're happy with what you have now, then hold on to it. If not, then upgrade to a newer model that has the features you want.

But don't ever count on a rumor.
The best that can be said now, is that Apple will be having a big event late March to early April to celebrate their 30th anniversary. They have already mentioned this recently. The assumption is that they will release new products.

That's not so far away, so wait 'till then. But, if they don't come out with what you want, then don't chew your fingernails over it. you can wait forever for what you want, and never get it.

I want the bluetooth option, more then the video option, so I think I will wait till then. I am just hoping that the wait wont be too long.
post #15 of 49
Quote:
Originally posted by zpisnon
I want the bluetooth option, more then the video option, so I think I will wait till then. I am just hoping that the wait wont be too long.

Well, in that case... It's not likely that we'll see one soon.
post #16 of 49
Quote:
Originally posted by melgross
Don't forget that the rumor boards are also fueled by these analysists.


Anyone familiar with the notorious "Blueskymining" on the Yahoo message boards? He is "famous" for his anti-AAPL rants...

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply
post #17 of 49
There IS NOT GOING TO BE A NEW iPod INTRODUCED ANYTIME SOON...

Apple just introduced the leather cases for the fifth generation iPod that ARE NOT EVEN SHIPPING YET!

Do you really think they will roll out the 6th gen iPod before the cases for the fifth gen even hit the shelves?

Analysts are schmucks...
post #18 of 49
Quote:
Originally posted by solsun
There IS NOT GOING TO BE A NEW iPod INTRODUCED ANYTIME SOON...

Apple just introduced the leather cases for the fifth generation iPod that ARE NOT EVEN SHIPPING YET!

Do you really think they will roll out the 6th gen iPod before the cases for the fifth gen even hit the shelves?

Analysts are schmucks...


Who knows!

I'm keeping my expections low. We could very easily get carried away!8)
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of a rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of a rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #19 of 49
The key to happiness is to lower your expectations to the point where they are already met.

This is Apple wwe are talking about, so no one really knows. They issued a new iMac (intel) right after the last release, the nano replaced the hugely popular mini, and, well, everyone knows about the iPod pico and the iPod invisa from Saturday Night Live fame!

 

Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

Reply

 

Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

Reply
post #20 of 49
Quote:
Originally posted by mdriftmeyer
In short, we do their job for them and they get paid handsomely to regurgitate it in a more finanical approach.

Good job if you can get it.
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Please consider throwing extra cycles at better understanding Alzheimer's, Mad Cow (CJD), ALS, and Parkinson's disease go here <a href="http://folding.stanford.edu/" target="_blank">http://folding....
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post #21 of 49
Quote:
Originally posted by TednDi
They try and get ...

Argh! They try to get ...

Written English - Glossary of Correct Usage:

8. sure and try are not followed by and.

Wrong: Be sure and study for the test.
Right : Be sure to study for the test.

Wrong: Try and get some rest.
Right\t: Try to get some rest.
Quote:
Originally posted by SpamSandwich

Anyone familiar with the notorious "Blueskymining" on the Yahoo message boards? He is "famous" for his anti-AAPL rants...

Same as the VersionTracker BSM?
post #22 of 49
Quote:
Originally posted by solsun
There IS NOT GOING TO BE A NEW iPod INTRODUCED ANYTIME SOON...

Apple just introduced the leather cases for the fifth generation iPod that ARE NOT EVEN SHIPPING YET!

Do you really think they will roll out the 6th gen iPod before the cases for the fifth gen even hit the shelves?

Analysts are schmucks...

The 5th gen and 6th gen iPods will be the same size.
"you will know the truth, and the truth will
set you free."
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"you will know the truth, and the truth will
set you free."
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post #23 of 49
Quote:
Originally posted by mdriftmeyer
In short, we do their job for them and they get paid handsomely to regurgitate it in a more finanical approach.

Ah, but they do the job for us. By regurgitating our upbeat speculation, they move buyers from the mainstream into Apple stock, which raises the stock price, which allows us (who bought in earlier) to take our profits. When the speculation doesn't pan out, those buyers hastily depart, which allows us to buy back in.

Without analysts, we'd never be able to buy low and sell high.
"you will know the truth, and the truth will
set you free."
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"you will know the truth, and the truth will
set you free."
Reply
post #24 of 49
Quote:
Originally posted by mark2005
The 5th gen and 6th gen iPods will be the same size.

And exactly how do you think they are going to fit a battery large enough to power a 3.5 or 4 inch screen in a case that thin?

Short answer: You can't. Even if the iPod face is the same size it would have to be significantly thicker.. The leather cases are specifically tailored for the fifth gen.
post #25 of 49
Quote:
Originally posted by sjk
Argh! They try to get ...

Written English - Glossary of Correct Usage:

8. sure and try are not followed by and.

Wrong: Be sure and study for the test.
Right : Be sure to study for the test.

Wrong: Try and get some rest.
Right\t: Try to get some rest.
Same as the VersionTracker BSM?

Ahh, a grammar watcher. If you were to correct all of the grammar and spelling errors on these pages, you would be busy for quite a while and not fix everything correctly. There are several versions of English present, as well as various levels of formality and usage. There are also quite a few people here who do not speak English natively, and yet do a magnificent job, better than most native speakers of English do at foreign languages.

These pages tend to follow spoken English more than written, as they are taking the place of conversation. The communication here is also informal (sometimes extremely so), so people can speak (or write) as they please. Let it go, and focus on what is being said.

 

Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

Reply

 

Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

Reply
post #26 of 49
There should not be a comma before the "and" in either of the two occurences above. 8)
post #27 of 49
You passed the grammar test. However, you did not do so well on the comprehension part. Now, back to the topic of this thread.

The initial story suggested that there was a gap in Apple's notebook lineup. What will they fill it with? A lower-end MBP or a higher end iBook replacement?

I hope it is a smaller MBP.

 

Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

Reply

 

Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

Reply
post #28 of 49
Quote:
Originally posted by sjk
Argh! They try to get ...

Written English - Glossary of Correct Usage:

8. sure and try are not followed by and.

Wrong: Be sure and study for the test.
Right : Be sure to study for the test.

Wrong: Try and get some rest.
Right\t: Try to get some rest.
Same as the VersionTracker BSM?


Actually, that is correct english.

They try and they get as much information as possible.

Therefore, rephrased, they try and they get as much information as possible.

I type in a hurry.

edit:

Happy birthday!!

edit edit:

Also, the very thing that you object to is called False Coordination. It is used in informal English. Which I believe we practice here as this forum is more like a conversation than a treatise.

False Coordination

http://www.ucl.ac.uk/internet-gramma...t/conjunct.htm

Conjunctions:

False Coordination:

Coordinators are sometimes used without performing any strictly coordinating role:

I'll come when I'm good and ready
Here, the adjectives good and ready are not really being coordinated with each other. If they were, the sentence would mean something like:

I'll come [when I'm good] and [when I'm ready]
Clearly, this is not the meaning which good and ready conveys. Instead, good and intensifies the meaning of ready. We might rephrase the sentence as

I'll come when I'm completely ready.
Good and ready is an example of FALSE COORDINATION -- using a coordinator without any coordinating role. It is sometimes called PSEUDO-COORDINATION.
False coordination can also be found in informal expressions using try and:


Please try and come early
I'll try and ring you from the office
Here, too, no real coordination is taking place. The first sentence, for instance, does not mean Please try, and please come early. Instead, it is semantically equivalent to Please try to come early.
In informal spoken English, and and but are often used as false coordinators, without any real coordinating role. The following extract from a conversation illustrates this:


Speaker A: Well he told me it's this super high-flying computer software stuff. I'm sure it's the old job he used to have cleaning them

Speaker B: But it went off okay last night then did it? Did you have a good turnout? [S1A-005-95ff]

Here, the word but used by Speaker B does not coordinate any conjoins. Instead, it initiates her utterance, and introduces a completely new topic.


post #29 of 49
Quote:
Originally posted by sjk
8. sure and try are not followed by and.

I was sure and I told everybody. General rules tend to bite you in the arse. As always it depends on the part of speech.
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"When I was a kid, my favourite relative was Uncle Caveman. After school, wed all go play in his cave, and every once and awhile, hed eat one of us. It wasnt until later that I discovered Uncle...
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post #30 of 49
My mother was an english teacher.

This was dinner conversation for years.

post #31 of 49
I predict that Apple will NOT release a grammar checker.

post #32 of 49
Quote:
Originally posted by solsun
And exactly how do you think they are going to fit a battery large enough to power a 3.5 or 4 inch screen in a case that thin?

Short answer: You can't. Even if the iPod face is the same size it would have to be significantly thicker.. The leather cases are specifically tailored for the fifth gen.

Perhaps it might be an OLED screen. They have them in that size.
post #33 of 49
Quote:
Originally posted by Bergermeister
You passed the grammar test. However, you did not do so well on the comprehension part.

Your iSarcasm is on the blink.........

Grammar flames is gonna be da bomb in 2007 I tell ya right now. I'm sure Richard Gardner is picking up on that trend too.
post #34 of 49
iSarcasm

The i's have it!

The Grammar Wars ... could be a new movie... or eeality.... don't tell GW!

 

Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

Reply

 

Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

Reply
post #35 of 49
Bergermeister, while SJK had had "had", had had "had had". "Had had" had had a better effect on the teacher.
post #36 of 49
For those of us living in the more distant reaches of the planet, who the heck is Richard Gardner?

 

Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

Reply

 

Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

Reply
post #37 of 49
"is" cannot be followed by "Richard"


you can tell i want to join in
post #38 of 49
Quote:
Originally posted by Bergermeister
For those of us living in the more distant reaches of the planet, who the heck is Richard Gardner?

That's a rather odd question for you to have asked in this thread. Should I assume that you HAVE read the article, where it tells who he is, or have you just come upon the thread without first reading it?
post #39 of 49
Quote:
Originally posted by Trendannoyer
"is" cannot be followed by "Richard"


you can tell i want to join in


The use of the letter i should be capitalized when referring to yourself.

Please join in, as this thread is officially off topic!

post #40 of 49
Quote:
Originally posted by TednDi
The use of the letter i should be capitalized when referring to yourself.

Please join in, as this thread is officially off topic!


So sorry, i will attempt this again.

'is' sound not be followed by 'rIchard'

ahem
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