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PiperJaffray: "75 percent chance" of an Apple iPhone

post #1 of 34
Thread Starter 
Research and investment firm PiperJaffray this week told clients it would be buyers of Apple Computer shares given the recent pullback, explaining that the company should soon benefit from Intel Mac sales and is very likely to announce a cellphone-based product in the near term.

Speaking to clients in a brief research note on Wednesday, analyst Gene Munster said an extrapolation of the first two months of iPod data from NPD suggests that shipments of the players during Apple's current (March) quarter will essentially fall in line with estimates.

"Earlier today, we received the second month of iPod retail NPD data for Apple's March quarter," Munster wrote. "Our preliminary analysis of iPod unit shipment data from NPD leads us to believe that Apple is on track to meet or be slightly below our 9.0 [million] iPod unit assumptions."

According to the analyst, the current data suggests iPod unit shipments for the quarter will fall between 8.8 million and 9.1 million units.

"We would be buyers of Apple on today's pullback given we believe iPod demand will accelerate in mid-2006, based on upcoming positive seasonality and new form factor iPod's," the analyst wrote. "Additionally, we believe Apple will benefit from the new Intel-based Mac's, along with what we estimate to be a 75 percent chance of a iPhone in the next 12 months."

PiperJaffray maintains an Outperform rating on Apple shares with a price target of $103.
post #2 of 34
Doubt we'll get the phone here in Japan.

 

Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

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Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

Reply
post #3 of 34
As unlikely as I think this iPhone rumor is, I sure would like to see it happen though. I'm in the market for a new mobile phone right now and every one I've contemplated was filled to the brim with features I don't need and had less than overly complex user interfaces combined with tasteless industrial design.
post #4 of 34
I think that it would be more of a Voipod than a true cellular phone.

That is, an ipod with limited wifi for downloading music and for voip calls.
post #5 of 34
I can be an analyst too! Watch this!


Judging by my overwhelming hunch, I think Piper Jaffery is underplaying it!

My years of experience are telling me it's more like 76.3 percent.
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #6 of 34
Quote:
Originally posted by AppleInsider
new form factor iPod's

new Intel-based Mac's

Jesus, now even professional papers for public distribution have this apostrophe shit.

It's a sad, sad day.
Attention Internet Users!

"it's" contraction of "it is"
"its" possessive form of the pronoun "it".

It's shameful how grammar on the Internet is losing its accuracy.
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Attention Internet Users!

"it's" contraction of "it is"
"its" possessive form of the pronoun "it".

It's shameful how grammar on the Internet is losing its accuracy.
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post #7 of 34
Hmmm, I don't know about this one. I'm confident Apple can do it well, but the market for Mobiles is so saturated that Apple better do it right. Either had a killer UI or somethink unique.
"...men are that they might have joy."
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"...men are that they might have joy."
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post #8 of 34
Even if Apple manage to make the world's best, most intuitive mobile phone, bar none, they will still have an uphill battle to get it into the hands of customers... Due to the way the mobile phone market works and the way phones are subsidised by carriers.

I'm not saying Apple won't try, but I can't see this happening in the near future.
post #9 of 34
Ah, but I can!

But in all seriousness, why 75% and where did that percentage from!
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #10 of 34
I can see Apple introducing a mobile phone of some kind. I think the reason that Apple teamed up with Cingular and included iTunes on some phones was some sort of test to see how well those sold, and if the reason people bought them were because of the iTunes feature.
post #11 of 34
Quote:
Originally posted by Ireland
Ah, but I can!

But in all seriousness, why 75% and where did that percentage from!

No kidding! I mean I am estimating 72.4%. 75% is just outrageous!

post #12 of 34
Quote:
Doubt we'll get the phone here in Japan.

Japan your spoiled with cell phones! I'm sorry but the phones availible to people in the US through their plans.....They all suck! seriously. That is one thing I never understood and still dont. Why does the US have to be 2 years behind in cell phone technology?

I just bought the Sony Ericsson w800 online and its AWESOME! The only problem I have with it is that it doesnt have iTunes.

My point is why cant Cell companies provide Americans with good phones?

Hopefully Apple will change this. Although if the w800 could have itunes on it....it would be the best phone on the planet. BAR NONE!

oh....and to stay on topic...yeah 75% chance in 12 months....i wonder what the % would be if they would have said 13 months? maybe 79%..
-Adam
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-Adam
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post #13 of 34
Quote:
Originally posted by Robin Hood
Even if Apple manage to make the world's best, most intuitive mobile phone, bar none, they will still have an uphill battle to get it into the hands of customers... Due to the way the mobile phone market works and the way phones are subsidised by carriers.

I'm not saying Apple won't try, but I can't see this happening in the near future.

Apple could become a virtual mobile network, leasing capacity from a larger provider like Cingular. iPhones could be sold from Apple stores and other retailers that cell iPods and also phone (like Best Buy). I think a Nano type device with phone capabilities would make a lot of people happy.

It's interesting the analyst didn't say anything about a possible movie download service.
post #14 of 34
Apple Creates an MVNO (i.e. Apple is a virtual branded carrier like Virgin Mobile or Disney Mobile), an iPhone backed by a DRM-based content delivery system leveraging an enormous existing base of iTunes users. It's the killer combo: handset, carrier, and content delivery.

See this article:

http://www.tangentmobile.com/2006/01...king-up-steam/
post #15 of 34
Quote:
Originally posted by Chris Cuilla
No kidding! I mean I am estimating 72.4%. 75% is just outrageous!


Are you crazy!
Where in the hell did you get those facts from. That is way too low!

My precise calculations tell me it's more likely to be 72.46%
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #16 of 34
Quote:
Originally posted by Robin Hood
Even if Apple manage to make the world's best, most intuitive mobile phone, bar none, they will still have an uphill battle to get it into the hands of customers... Due to the way the mobile phone market works and the way phones are subsidised by carriers.

I would think that it would be sold through the carriers much like Nokia, Samsung and such.

I've also heard a suggestion about six months ago that Apple could start up a virtual carrier that leases service from the real carriers, much like Disney and ESPN have.
post #17 of 34
Quote:
Originally posted by JeffDM
I would think that it would be sold through the carriers much like Nokia, Samsung and such.

I've also heard a suggestion about six months ago that Apple could start up a virtual carrier that leases service from the real carriers, much like Disney and ESPN have.

Excuse my ignorance but i'm from Europe and things work differently here.

What does that mean ??:

(virtual carrier)
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #18 of 34
there's a thread on applenova about a patent filing for Aloha! in Hong Kong.

could be related.
post #19 of 34
Quote:
Originally posted by icibaqu
there's a thread on applenova about a patent filing for Aloha! in Hong Kong.

could be related.

fuck applenova!
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #20 of 34
Quote:
Originally posted by Ireland
Excuse my ignorance but i'm from Europe and things work differently here.

What does that mean ??:

(virtual carrier)

MVNO's were created in Europe. Virgin Mobile is one of them.
post #21 of 34
120 of the 135 mobile phone handset makers lose money.
post #22 of 34
Quote:
Originally posted by Chris Cuilla
120 of the 135 mobile phone handset makers lose money.

I think you can say the same for PC makers and portable audio players too.
post #23 of 34
The writing is on the wall, it will be a wireless IP based iPod device, NOT a "Cell" phone. Cells are nearing the end of their useful life. IP is where Apple is going with all this... just think... basically free phone calls to anywhere in the world? come on, that would cement Apple as the product leader and depending on how it was coupled with the iPod, it would further make it the "must have product" for the next ten years or so.

Netgear is "gearing" up for this total revolution, but it's done through Skype not iChat, so I just hope Apple is working hard on this, since the horse is about to leave the barn.

http://tools.netgear.com/skype/

Anyone who thinks Apple is going to do some deal with some old school Cell Phone company, isn't aware of what is happening with wireless IP phones. That's the golden ticket. Will Apple take the risk like they did with the iPod in 2001? I say YES. It will quadruple the stock if it happens.
post #24 of 34
It seems as though we had this thread already!

I'm looking for an OS X Lite PDA phone.

Let it do programs, games, music from iTunes Mobile (still $.99) Full screen video.

Would that do it? I would replace my Palmphone, so would my daughter, and my wife.

If Apple had their own virtual network, and it had good coverage, I would move to that too.

I only want to carry one device around.

I am not a geek!!! (yeah, yeah)
post #25 of 34
PiperJaffray: 100 percent chance of being lame
post #26 of 34
I can't believe that Apple will make a phone, but the things that would make it a success are leveraging their userbase, and doing things that nobody else can.

VOIP is a huge potential market for "mobile devices." The mobile carriers are dumb... at least in the US. Data plans are overpriced, there is no real incentive to go to 3G services, and phones need a good dose of simplicity and logic.

But... The device that Apple should have made is the Nokia 770 internet tablet. Hopefully, when they come out with a mobile communications device they will fill in some of the holes of this product.

There is a market... maybe not a huge one for now though (1M units?).
post #27 of 34
PiperJaffray = MOSR with cooler titles.
"I reject your reality and substitute it with my own" - President Bush
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"I reject your reality and substitute it with my own" - President Bush
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post #28 of 34
Quote:
Originally posted by aargh

VOIP is a huge potential market for "mobile devices." The mobile carriers are dumb... at least in the US. Data plans are overpriced, there is no real incentive to go to 3G services, and phones need a good dose of simplicity and logic.

Some are, some aren't. T-Mobile does unlimited non-blocked GPRS/EDGE for around $20 + talk plan, and unlimited slightly-blocked (in practice, you can't see the difference) for between $0 and $7 (some get it without needing to subscribe to The MobileWeb, others need to subscribe, there's not much logic to it.)

3G is only beginning to be properly rolled out in the US. Cingular, Sprint PCS, and Verizon, who are at different levels of development, are offering all you can eat services for prices comparable to higher-end broadband ($40-80 depending on SP.)

I don't think it's bad at all. It's certainly better than most of the rest of the world, where everyone seems obsessed with metering traffic.
post #29 of 34
Quote:
Originally posted by Ireland
Are you crazy!
Where in the hell did you get those facts from. That is way too low!

My precise calculations tell me it's more likely to be 72.46%

OK, let me settle this once and for all: a statistic like this has to have an uncertainty attached to it. According to my advanced calculations, I concur with the 72.46% but I add a +/- 34.27% margin of error, which means that the chances really range from 38.19% to 106.73% (greater than absolute metaphysical certainty!)

Y'rWIA (You're welcome in advance.)

By the way, Ireland, HAPPY ST. PATRICK'S DAY! I'm wearing my green (you'll have to take my word for it) even though I am not Irish the other 364 days of the years.
post #30 of 34
Quote:
Originally posted by Ensign Pulver
Jesus, now even professional papers for public distribution have this apostrophe shit.

It's a sad, sad day.

ep: while we're on this grammar madness, what's up with referring to companies like apple in the plural rather than singular? every time i look i see someone using "their" when, i think, that person should be using "it" or "its" when referring to apple or microsoft or ibm. and this leads me to the words "form factor" and "price point." now, would someone explain to me the difference between "form factor" and, say, "design" or "shape"? and explain to me how "price point" is different from "price"? i guess i'm old school and believe that one word is better than two when one will suffice. "price point" and "form factor" just sound bleepin' pretentious.

... and don't get me started on misuse of the word "hopefully" ... okay, i am started. here's the rule: "hopefully" is an adverb. it's got to modify an adjective or verb; thus, it's correct to say "hopefully, he entered the contest" b/c "entered" is the word being modified by "hopefully." but if you say "hopefully, i'll win the tournament" one needs to ask what word is "hopefully" modifying?????

okay, i'm spent for now ....
post #31 of 34
Quote:
Originally posted by Robin Hood
Even if Apple manage to make the world's best, most intuitive mobile phone, bar none, they will still have an uphill battle to get it into the hands of customers... Due to the way the mobile phone market works and the way phones are subsidised by carriers.

I'm not saying Apple won't try, but I can't see this happening in the near future.

I agree with this. If it is to happen an exclusive deal with ONE of the carriers will probably be the only thing that subsidizes Apple's larger than average price. Eventually the other carriers would offer the phone, but the exclusive would be used to get subscribers to switch to Cingular or whomever.

Dovetail
post #32 of 34
Quote:
Originally posted by macFanDave
OK, let me settle this once and for all: a statistic like this has to have an uncertainty attached to it. According to my advanced calculations, I concur with the 72.46% but I add a +/- 34.27% margin of error, which means that the chances really range from 38.19% to 106.73% (greater than absolute metaphysical certainty!)

Y'rWIA (You're welcome in advance.)

By the way, Ireland, HAPPY ST. PATRICK'S DAY! I'm wearing my green (you'll have to take my word for it) even though I am not Irish the other 364 days of the years.

I tried to make a call the other day with my iPod. I was not succussful, and I kept on hearing music on the other line!
So due to my lab test and intense recalculations I concur with your deep observations. But I would also like to add that 106.73% seems too high somehow. I haven't figured out why that is yet.

I'm going back to the lab.

p.s. Happy Paddy's day to you too!
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #33 of 34
St Patrick's Day! That great American celebration of gang warfare and corruption. Roll on Columbus Day!
post #34 of 34
Ohhh! Just back from the lab.

I have discovered it's 100%!
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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