Originally posted by KickahaI hate to disagree with my distinguished colleague (sorry Anders) but I just don't see #3 happening unless Apple ships virtualization of Windows, or hosting of Windows apps directly, by default. I just don't.
There are still competitors (mostly) to the big apps on the Mac side, with the exception of Office. (Sorry OpenOffice guys, but you're just not there quite yet.) (Nice that that five-year agreement just got renewed, eh?)
Every big developer is going to lose a ton of customers if they drop Mac support and tell them to dual boot. That's lost $. They'd *ALL* have to ditch in unison, otherwise their competition is going to come swooping in and snatch them away. If one goes, the others have more incentive to stay. Seriously - what % of Adobe's customers are Mac? Isn't it something really skewed (compared to overall marketshare) like 25-30%? You think they're going to leave that sitting on the table?
The small developers don't have the clout to even begin to tell users to dual boot. Besides, how many small devs are there out there that support Mac and WIndows both? \ The small Mac houses are going to stay Mac.
Virtualization is a whole other kettle of fish, but that's not what we've got here, and I don't see that happening until Cocoa/Win is a contender. Which will likely be never.
It depends on who these developers are.
If they are Mac only developers, then they can make the choice to spend more bucks and move to Windows, and keep their Mac development team , until, and unless the Mac side dies to them (their customers moving to Windows). A large number of Mac only developers have done this over the years.
If they develop for both the Mac and Windows now, they could phase out their Mac programs as more people buy Macs, and install Windows.
Windows only developers, of course, can only gain here. They now have the possibility of their programs being used by Mac users who might never have considered their programs before. A certain catagory of program fits that description (it shall remain nameless).
The difficulty that has been discussed about this over the years is that Mac users, finding their most important program now only on Windows, might have no choice but to switch.
I don't agree that vitualization will make it easier for that to happen than dual bootint. I think that it is the other way around.
Dual booting makes it more likely that people will stay in Windows if they are booted there, because of the hassle.