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Apple Mac sales could surge post transition, Needham says

post #1 of 20
Thread Starter 
Apple Computer effectively dodged the Intel transition bullet in its second fiscal quarter of this year and its progress in the personal computer market could lead to a sharp rise in Mac sales once the transition has completed, analyst for Needham & Co said this week.

Still, the company faces at least two more quarters where demand could be time shifted to subsequent quarters, analyst Charles Wolf told his clients. "However, once the transition is complete by the first quarter of fiscal 2007, we believe Mac shipments have the potential to surge on the strength of the Macs newfound ability to run Windows applications along side Mac applications," he wrote in a research note released Thursday.

"Our initial survey of college students indicated a material percentage of Windows users would purchase a Mac if it could run Windows applications natively," he said. "However, the higher education market is one of the Macs strongholds."

As a result, the analyst believes the switch rate among the entire population of Windows users in the home and education markets could be lower. Wolf said, "We are preparing a second survey that targets this audience. Whats noteworthy, however, is that the switch rate could be far lower among this group and still generate significant market share gains for Apple."

Echoing the sentiments of the Mac web, the analyst said he expect Apple to introduce a new iBook (MacBook) with an Intel processor in time for the K-12 school-buying season, which begins in June. "Without the new model, the season could be quite short," he wrote. "Peter Oppenheimer, Apples CFO, effectively signaled the introduction of this model on the companys conference call in his gross margin guidance."

Oppenheimer modeled down gross margin about 1.5 percent from March, largely attributing the change to the beginning of the K-12 buying season -- also the first full quarter where its lower iPod selling prices on the shuffle and 1GB nano will be in full effect.

In his note to clients, Wolf also said that the MacBook Pro and forthcoming PowerMac "could experience postponements" that extend into 2007 due to a lack of Intel-native software such as Adobe Photoshop and the entire Creative Suite. "Apples professional audiences, which are heavy users of these products, are likely to postpone their upgrades until they arrive," he wrote.

Nevertheless, Needham & Co. is very optimistic about Apple's future and raised its fiscal 2006 earnings per share estimate from $2.04 to $2.05 and its 2007 estimate from $2.49 to $2.58.

The firm maintains a Hold rating on Apple shares without a set price target.
post #2 of 20
Leopard could be the real take-off. Especially once all Mac models will be Intel by then. And maybe even, at last, Universal CS3.
post #3 of 20
If I were heavily dependant on Adobe's CS2 right now, I'd pick up some PowerMac G5's for my office.
post #4 of 20
Exciting times for apple to say the least! 2006 will be a transition year, and a big year too! However 2007 should blow the competition out of the water! New, PowerMac's with intel. MacBook's. New iPod's, maybe touchscreen, maybe iPhone. Newly designed White & black shuffles. Leopard. Adobe. This will rock! Also intel is ahead of schedule for their next generation of chips. This does rock!! Woohhooooo!!!
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #5 of 20
I don't understand why all these analyst reports are on here.......but I agree that Apple is nice....at least to me.....yay!
post #6 of 20
Quote:
"...newfound ability to run Windows applications alonside Mac..."

My experiences have taught me that most normal people do not care what operating system they are using, and they will even use what they are told to use by others.
Only power users care enough to learn what makes one OS better than another.
Most people even complain when thier computers need upgrades because they need to acclimate to their new computer. They never learned Windows or its applications; there is no chance they will ever want to "learn" Mac.
This generation wants thier programs to run within a web browser (Google, Windows Live) because that is all they care to understand. This lack of confusion for them makes them more efficient workers.
And f I dare suggest anyone leave thier cocoon of comfort to embrace a Mac
I know that it won't make a difference to anyone but me.There was a day when i thought that the younger generations would go further with this than us but that day is gone. Kids are lazy, too.
Lower cost and less maintenace than PC's, ok. That's true but
I think what needs to happen is that people need to get to the point where they feel that they are entitled to be compatible with everything and that only a Mac can do that. That way you always know that you recommended to right computer to them. I'm just not sure who will support them just yet since Apple doesnt support Windows, and because nearly every IT person I meet does not want to use any more software than they absolutely have to and that includes entire operating systems. My poor father got trapped in the Dashboard the other day, that might be were some of this is coming from.
I also think that Apple knows all of this, and that they will therefore use a multi-pronged effort to reshape the entire IT industry to support Macs so that the rest of the dumb world will fall into line. I guess.
post #7 of 20
Quote:
Originally posted by rebel_without_a_pc
My experiences have taught me that most normal people do not care what operating system they are using, and they will even use what they are told to use by others.

Is this a confession? People aren't as stupid as you seem to think.
post #8 of 20
Quote:
Originally posted by iPeon
Is this a confession? People aren't as stupid as you seem to think.

I work with the public and people are stupid....believe me. Especially when it comes to computers...Lazy children.
post #9 of 20
Quote:
Originally posted by rebel_without_a_pc
My experiences have taught me that most normal people do not care what operating system they are using, and they will even use what they are told to use by others.

Time will tell that you need more expirence!
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #10 of 20
I think Rebel has a point.

The Mac market is 4%. Windows is ~95%.

If people were really choosing out of personal preference, would the numbers be skewed so heavily in favor of one OS?
post #11 of 20
Quote:
Originally posted by michaelb
I think Rebel has a point.

The Mac market is 4%. Windows is ~95%.

If people were really choosing out of personal preference, would the numbers be skewed so heavily in favor of one OS?

I don't they skewed, exactly, becuase the choice wasn't obvious. Mac or basically any other computer in the world. Dell, whatever. But becuase of the iPods popularity, and the current apple brand awareness, coupled with the obvious flaws of Windows. The introduction of Leopard should and will give a real choice, that will be irrisistable! Expect another % or 2 in 2007. Also the possionate Mac faithful, give much more constructive feedback to apple. As a rusult, apple can see where it's going more easily.
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #12 of 20
Quote:
Originally posted by iPeon
Is this a confession? People aren't as stupid as you seem to think.

Nothing in rebel_without_a_pc's comment you quoted seems to imply that he thinks people are stupid. And the word "stupid" wasn't used once in his entire post. josa92's post right after yours did, though.
post #13 of 20
Quote:
Originally posted by sjk
Nothing in rebel_without_a_pc's comment you quoted seems to imply that he thinks people are stupid. And the word "stupid" wasn't used once in his entire post. josa92's post right after yours did, though.

OK. I'm not sure what point your are intending to communicate to me, nonetheless, thank you.
post #14 of 20
Quote:
Originally posted by iPeon
OK. I'm not sure what point your are intending to communicate to me, nonetheless, thank you.

I was pointing out that your "People aren't as stupid as you seem to think" remark to rebel_without_a_pc might be falsely accusing him of calling people stupid since nothing I read in his post makes that claim. Unless you think that someone not caring which OS they're using, or using what they're told, makes them "stupid".

Funny how that made your remark (not you personally; I'm not trying to attack or provoke an argument here) seem a bit stupid.
post #15 of 20
Quote:
Originally posted by sjk
I was pointing out that your "People aren't as stupid as you seem to think" remark to rebel_without_a_pc might be falsely accusing him of calling people stupid since nothing I read in his post makes that claim. Unless you think that someone not caring which OS they're using, or using what they're told, makes them "stupid".

Funny how that made your remark (not you personally; I'm not trying to attack or provoke an argument here) seem a bit stupid.

Heh! I gotcha ya. It's all good and I do see your point and no offense was taken by me. Yes, that was a little intentional friendly jab at rebel_without_a_pc. I'm sure he knew what I meant.
post #16 of 20
Let's look at it this way: If Windows PCs make up 95% of the PC market, and 5% switch to Macs, which I think is conservative, then Apple will have more than doubled its market share.

Given that Microsoft has flagged and faltered immensely in the last 5 years, and has no 'buzz' around its products or culture, I really see a lot of people switching from XP to OS X. A lot of those same people who don't know much about computers are the ones who are fed up with viruses and spyware, and buying a mac is an easy, affordable way out of the mire of XP, especially if you can RUN XP inside Mac OS.

1337_5l4xX0r rates MSFT a "sell."
post #17 of 20
Quote:
Originally posted by josa92
I work with the public and people are stupid....believe me. Especially when it comes to computers...Lazy children.

Its not that they're stupid. Its that its gotten to the point that most people believe computers are an appliance. They should do what they want them to and not have to worry about stupid-assed arguments like "XP Sucks!" and "OS X has no software!" Most users don't give a crap about dual-booting. That's a geek thing.

Its the same with lots of things. It used to be most people knew how to maintain a car, or at least check the oil. Now, most never pop the hood. Wouldn't know how to check the oil, nor what they should be looking for when they check it. They fill them with gas and take it in every 3000 miles.
post #18 of 20
Quote:
Originally posted by Louzer
Its not that they're stupid. Its that its gotten to the point that most people believe computers are an appliance. They should do what they want them to and not have to worry about stupid-assed arguments like "XP Sucks!" and "OS X has no software!" Most users don't give a crap about dual-booting. That's a geek thing.

Its the same with lots of things. It used to be most people knew how to maintain a car, or at least check the oil. Now, most never pop the hood. Wouldn't know how to check the oil, nor what they should be looking for when they check it. They fill them with gas and take it in every 3000 miles.

You are so right its not funny.
I love people like you. So real.
Yay for you.


Me and You and A Dog Named Drew
post #19 of 20
There is a new intel native version of something called "guest PC" that will allow you to run windows natively within Mac OS X without needing to reboot. This will run at native speeds allowing you to run Windows Apps side by side. I am not sure how the games are going to run but you can always dual-boot into windows if you are going to play a big resource intensive game. Gamers are generally power users and most are computer geeks themselves, so dualbooting wont be a big deal.


Quote:
Originally posted by Louzer
Its not that they're stupid. Its that its gotten to the point that most people believe computers are an appliance. They should do what they want them to and not have to worry about stupid-assed arguments like "XP Sucks!" and "OS X has no software!" Most users don't give a crap about dual-booting. That's a geek thing.

Its the same with lots of things. It used to be most people knew how to maintain a car, or at least check the oil. Now, most never pop the hood. Wouldn't know how to check the oil, nor what they should be looking for when they check it. They fill them with gas and take it in every 3000 miles.
post #20 of 20
Quote:
Originally posted by Louzer
Its not that they're stupid. Its that its gotten to the point that most people believe computers are an appliance. They should do what they want them to and not have to worry about stupid-assed arguments like "XP Sucks!" and "OS X has no software!" Most users don't give a crap about dual-booting. That's a geek thing.

Its the same with lots of things. It used to be most people knew how to maintain a car, or at least check the oil. Now, most never pop the hood. Wouldn't know how to check the oil, nor what they should be looking for when they check it. They fill them with gas and take it in every 3000 miles.

Agreed but I would add that people don't care until the software that they want to run does not work, because they are trying to run it on a Mac. I would say that a Windows environment that can auto detect the user trying to load a Windows program, and can switch on the fly, or close to it would be a real benefit for Apple.
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