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Analyst shares insight on Apple cell phone

post #1 of 14
Thread Starter 
Analysts for American Technology Research on Tuesday said they "firmly believe" that Apple has been working on cell phone technology and that its "much hyped" imminent entry is "overdone."

In a research note sent to clients on Monday, analyst Shaw Wu notes that for Apple to enter the cell phone market in the US, it would need approval from the FCC -- a process that would need to take place at least three months prior to an actual product launch.

"So far, Apple has applied and received WiFi and Bluetooth approval, but there is no sign of cell phone activity as of yet," he wrote.

The analyst believes Apple could protect potential product leaks about the phone by taking the 'announce now, ship later' strategy. "This could be similar to the Intel transition where actual product shipped seven months after the announcement," he wrote.

But Wu also believes the company is still in the planning stages of its market strategy for the device. Apple could participate in the traditional manner of teaming with carries likes Cingular and then supplying the hardware, he said. However, he told clients "Apple is also exploring a vertically integrated model and user experience similar to its iPod + iTunes and Mac business models."

According to Wu, the most sensible solution for Apple would be to take the MVNO (mobile virtual network operator) route. "Apple would have tighter control over the user experience including the hardware, marketing, service and support," he wrote."We believe its 147 or so physical retail stores in prime locations in the US and around the globe would come in handy in such an endeavor."

The analyst expects Apple's entry into the cell phone market to come no earlier than mid-2007 but "more likely in 2008-2009." In the meantime, he anticipates Motorola continuing its trend of introducing new cell phones with iTunes capability.

American Technology Research maintains a Buy rating on Apple shares with a price target of $101.
post #2 of 14
Quote:
Originally posted by AppleInsider
The analyst expects Apple's entry into the cell phone market to come no earlier than mid-2007 but "more likely in 2008-2009." In the meantime, he anticipates Motorola continuing its trend of introducing new cell phones with iTunes capability.

Give me a break. "more likely in 2008-2009" 2008-2009!! WHAT??
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
Reply
post #3 of 14
What!?!??! I can't wait that long!
I've been holding out on getting a new phone for a couple of months now.
I really don't want to buy any of the crappy phones on the market today.
I know Apple's phone is going to be so much better than anything I buy today.
But 2007! Come on!
I'm hoping for an announcement by September.

$101 price target! I hope so and soon.
post #4 of 14
"Working on" does not mean "will bring to market." Apple may not have even made that decision yet.
post #5 of 14
Quote:
Originally posted by nagromme
"Working on" does not mean "will bring to market." Apple may not have even made that decision yet.

Go get a Sony Ericsson P910. They rock! It is a full mini computer with web browser and everything. And of course, it "just works" with the Mac.
post #6 of 14
Yeah Sony Ericsson Phones kick ass. I have the W800i and I love it. I barely even take my ipod any more cuz my phone holds 2 gigs of music and has a 2mpx camera and takes video!! The only thing its missing (which I will agree is kind of a big deal) is iTunes support. If only I could get my phone to show up in iTunes instead of manually loading songs. Anyone know of a way to do this? But yeah Sony Ericsson, GREAT PHONEs. Unfortunately since the US is so far behind the times in cell phone technology you have to buy unlocked versioins on ebay. But its worth it.

Sony Ericsson W800i
-Adam
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-Adam
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post #7 of 14
Apple doesn't have to rush into this. As long as the iPods are increasing their numbers at a good rate, over the period of a year. There isn't the need to rush. He's right about the FCC. In fact, if you go to Phonescoop.com, you will find that most phones aren't released for closer to six months after FCC approval. Some much longer. If Apple is also planning their own virtual network, that could set the release back even further. Apple would really want to get that right. That would be a much bigger venture than just a phone or two. If Apple could get a few million subscribers a month at, say, $50 a month, it could mean $100 to $200 million a month subscriber fees. That's a lot of money.
post #8 of 14
Apple wouldn't waste its entry with a current gen phone in the US that is pretty far behind on cell phone net anyways. No, they'd better introduce a stronger product which takes advantage of 3G broadband or so when the net is _really_ ready for it. The European or Japanese nets are ready for such a product I guess... but that's just not Apple's style to introduce things abroad first, is it? They always introduce it to the home market first, right? And I also have a hunch they're not ready with the product itself and am not surprised that this Wu analyzer / rumor starter thinks that 2008-2009 would be more likely.
post #9 of 14
Hey, as long as the analysts for American Technology Research say they "firmly believe"... that's good enough for me....

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #10 of 14
Quote:
Originally posted by melgross
Apple doesn't have to rush into this. As long as the iPods are increasing their numbers at a good rate, over the period of a year. There isn't the need to rush. He's right about the FCC. In fact, if you go to Phonescoop.com, you will find that most phones aren't released for closer to six months after FCC approval. Some much longer. If Apple is also planning their own virtual network, that could set the release back even further. Apple would really want to get that right. That would be a much bigger venture than just a phone or two. If Apple could get a few million subscribers a month at, say, $50 a month, it could mean $100 to $200 million a month subscriber fees. That's a lot of money.


One can only dream, but for them to get worldwide coverage on par with (German-owned) T-Mobile this could take quite a number of years. If they offer services similar to Sprint for US coverage, with their own virtual network the rollout could be accelerated.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #11 of 14
Quote:
Originally posted by SpamSandwich
One can only dream, but for them to get worldwide coverage on par with (German-owned) T-Mobile this could take quite a number of years. If they offer services similar to Sprint for US coverage, with their own virtual network the rollout could be accelerated.

They wouldn't need worldwide service. The US and Canada would do fine. They could always look into that later, if this takes off. Remember that the US and Canada together are over 340 million people. It's basically one large market. Europe is more difficult, as it's still too fragmented. One can see that with all of the negotiations Apple has had to do with the individual countries.
post #12 of 14
2008-2009? this guy is good.

i'll try it now:

monkeyanalyst firmly believes Apple's entry into the 4-slice bread toaster market to come no earlier than mid-2015 but "more likely in 2016-2017." In the meantime, he anticipates Black&Decker continuing its trend of introducing new toasters with wi-fi capability.
post #13 of 14
Anybody out there ever consider the ramifications of Nokia's 7380?

Looking at a video review of the device, the scroll wheel interface, the navigation menu, it would seem to me that Nokia introduced this thing, not because they ever imagined that it would be a good seller, or a practical phone, because its not, but rather to block, delay, or otherwise make prohibitively costly any efforts by Apple to introduce an iPhone utilizing the iPod interface.

Conspiracy theory maybe, but I am convinced that Nokia fears the possibility that Apple might starting eating its lunch and this seemed to them like a great chess move.....
post #14 of 14
Quote:
Originally posted by monkeyastronaut
2008-2009? this guy is good.

i'll try it now:

monkeyanalyst firmly believes Apple's entry into the 4-slice bread toaster market to come no earlier than mid-2015 but "more likely in 2016-2017." In the meantime, he anticipates Black&Decker continuing its trend of introducing new toasters with wi-fi capability.

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