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UBS raises Apple's Mac sales estimates

post #1 of 19
Thread Starter 
Analysts for UBS Investment Research on Wednesday increased their forecast for Mac unit sales during Apple Computer's third fiscal quarter after checks showed solid education buying and increasing interest in the company's MacBook notebook line.

"Given indications of solid demand for new Macs, prospects for new products next quarter and an increasing shift of consumer interest to Macs, we are raising our Mac estimates," analyst Ben Reitzes told clients in a research note.

Reitzes now expects Apple to sell 1.32 million Macs during its third (June) quarter, up from 1.24 million units -- representing unit growth of approximately 12 percent yearly or 19 percent quarter-to-quarter. The analyst also increased his fiscal year 2006 and 2007 total Mac unit sales estimates to 5.1 million and 6.7 million units, up from 5 million and 6.3 million units, respectively.

"Our colleagues in Asia who attended the recent Computex trade show in Taiwan indicated that discussion with vendors showed Apple continues to stand out with strong PC orders in China and Taiwan, despite the overall weakness in PC orders," Reitzes wrote. "Notebook casing maker Jutang also confirmed the MacBook is ramping up volume currently [and Jutang is] on track to ship 500K units in 1H06 (starting May), and a total of 1 million units in 2006, accounting for only a portion of total sales."

On the flip side, Reitzes said his checks continue to show that the overall digital music player market is decelerating a bit from year-end, with subdued demand for iPods coupled with "plenty of inventory" from several vendors.

"We believe our checks back weaker than expected sales for iPods in Apples recently reported fiscal 2Q and lower production figures from industry sources," he wrote. "These views from our 'Retail Rumblings' reports have also been supported by recent NPD data which shows US iPod sales tracking slightly below our expectations."

As a result, Reitzes cut his iPod unit shipment forecast for Apple's third fiscal quarter to 7.83 million units, down from 8.35 million units -- representing 27 percent yearly growth or an 8 percent decline quarter-to-quarter. "Due to declining average selling prices (ASPs) as a result of a full quarter of shuffle price reductions and the 1GB nano, combined with our lower 3Q unit forecast, we are now forecasting iPod revenue growth of 35 percent year-over-year to $1.5 billion (was $1.6 billion)," he wrote.

The analyst now expects iPod unit sales to total 39.8 million in fiscal 2006 (reflecting yearly growth of 77 percent), driven by solid demand for new iPods during Apple's fourth fiscal quarter and strong back to school sales. In 2007, Reitzes sees iPod growth slowing to 29 percent year-over-year to 51.4 million units.

UBS continues to expect new Intel Power Macs in August, new iPods next quarter and an iPhone somewhere down the line. The firm maintains a "Buy" rating on Apple shares with a price target of $90.
post #2 of 19
Makes sense that iPod demand is more seasonal, and peaks like crazy at the end of the year. Christmas is iPod season, what can we say! As for Macs, the peak is broader and really starts with the current education buying season. Everything's headed well and as it should by the sounds of these reports.

Quote:
Originally posted by AppleInsider
UBS continues to expect new Intel Power Macs in August, new iPods next quarter and an iPhone somewhere down the line.

I should hope so! 8)
post #3 of 19
Mac sales look strong and will only get stronger. A buying wave is underway now that people are making purchases in anticipation of the upcoming academic year.
post #4 of 19
All I can say is that 2 guys I know just bought their first Macs (one a MacBook another an iMac). The 1st is a Unix/Windows consultant and bought the MacBook; he's very happy with it, impressed, even.
The second is a Business Consultant that likes to paint using Corel for PC and even so bought a Mac with intention to dual-boot. In his case, he explicitly told me it was the (in)famous iPod Halo effect that triggered the buy. I never thought it was real!
post #5 of 19
Watch when the Mac pro comes out.. Sales will plummit, hence the delay with Adobe.

yes, i know video editors and other people who love to burn money on a mac...

I don't think that product line will take off til june 07

Until then... Let the iPods and other items flourish the sales charts.
post #6 of 19
Quote:
Originally posted by domerdel
Watch when the Mac pro comes out.. Sales will plummit, hence the delay with Adobe.

I truly don't understand your point!

First, I think you mean, rocket, right? Plummet is downwards.

But, even so, the "hence" part puzzles me? What is the relation between Mac Pro and Adobe delays????? :-/
post #7 of 19
I think he means plummet, as Adobe has not released any universal binaries of their software. This will keep pros on their PMG5s as these will continue to outperform their Intel-based bretheren. Therefore sales of new units will indeed plummet (not that they've been great for some time now) until calendar Q1-Q2 next year when Adobe releases CS3.
post #8 of 19
Quote:
Originally posted by PBG4 Dude
I think he means plummet, as Adobe has not released any universal binaries of their software. This will keep pros on their PMG5s as these will continue to outperform their Intel-based bretheren. Therefore sales of new units will indeed plummet (not that they've been great for some time now) until calendar Q1-Q2 next year when Adobe releases CS3.

How does not buying something that doesn't exist cause sales to plummet? Everyone already knows that Adobe UBs don't exist, and neither do the Mac Pros. People may chose not to buy the Mac Pros when they come out, but that doesn't cause sales of existing computers to plummet. 0+0 = 0, not <0. Idiot.
post #9 of 19
Quote:
Originally posted by domerdel
I don't think that product line will take off til june 07

I agree 100%, that's why when the shares drop a few percent again I'll pounce.
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
Reply
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
Reply
post #10 of 19
Quote:
Originally posted by McHuman
How does not buying something that doesn't exist cause sales to plummet? Everyone already knows that Adobe UBs don't exist, and neither do the Mac Pros. People may chose not to buy the Mac Pros when they come out, but that doesn't cause sales of existing computers to plummet. 0+0 = 0, not <0. Idiot.

Yea, I'm the idiot for agreeing with the postulate that sales of Intel PowerMacs (whatever they end up being named) will be less than sales of PPC PowerMacs due to lack of UB Adobe software.

Y = Intel Mac Pro Sales
X = PPC PowerMac Sales

Y <> 0
X <> 0

Postulate: Y < X due to unavailability of UB Adobe software.

I'm sure you're so smart you were able to figure out the meaning of domerdel's postulation. Oh wait, you weren't, yet you call other people idiots? Classic.
post #11 of 19
Quote:
Originally posted by domerdel
when the Mac pro comes out.. Sales will plummit

Quote:
Originally posted by PBG4 Dude
Yea, I'm the idiot for agreeing with the postulate that sales of Intel PowerMacs will be less than sales of PPC PowerMacs.

How the hell did you get that from dormedel's one line commment? You yourself went on to say :

"sales of new units will indeed plummet."

New unit sales will plummet? Mac Pros that didn't exist will plummet? Or do you mean the other new Intel Macs will plummet, when everyone has already known Adobe UB's aren't out until next year. Your logic is all over the place. Double idiot.
post #12 of 19
Quote:
Originally posted by McHuman
How the hell did you get that from dormedel's one line commment? You yourself went on to say :

"sales of new units will indeed plummet."

New unit sales will plummet? Mac Pros that didn't exist will plummet? Or do you mean the other new Intel Macs will plummet, when everyone has already known Adobe UB's aren't out until next year. Your logic is all over the place. Double idiot.

OK guys. This isn't why I read these forums. Let's argue semantics elsewhere, please!
post #13 of 19
Quote:
Originally posted by jamezog
OK guys. This isn't why I read these forums. Let's argue semantics elsewhere, please!



The Mac Pro will rock. Not every Power Mac is sold to run CS 2. And remember these are going to be serious high status UNIVERSAL machines which can boot all three major operating systems. I see them becoming a legend. Besides, only the Quad is good now, and they're so highly priced and clearly on the verge of transition obsolescence that they can't be flying off the shelves now...

Note: I've nothing against a PPC Mac. Mine is! But the Mac Pro is going to be a killer and will outclass even the almighty Quad G5.
post #14 of 19
man.. i started a war... this article was on Sales estimates. I was giving my piece of mind, but someone was very confused and rude about my topic.

Mac Pro's WILL rule... just not when they launch.

The non-expert
-Dominic
post #15 of 19
I hope they wait a while on the MacPro; it would be nice for some more of the professional applications to be available in universal binary form.

That said, I am surprised Apple hasn't put some effort into open source projects to make them viable competitors to Adobe. Actually, competitors might not be the right word... say more like a bridge application.

As far as unit sales go, my bet is for 1.5M macs this quarter. The 17" MBP has only recently hit the point where it is available in 24 hours, and the ship times on the MacBooks have grown despite a very aggressive pre-release production ramp.

Even in my little remote corner in paradise, people are buying Macs (despite the fact that they are 25% more expensive here than in the US).

And, for the iPods, it's good that growth is slowing on this product line, expect something interesting before the christmas buying season. Natural end of a product cycle.
post #16 of 19
Sales of the Powermacs are almost nonexistent right now. I can't see sales of new Mac Pro's being lower.

I was going to buy a Quad in January, after Macworld, depending on what was said there. Because of the speedup of the release dates, I decided to wait for the Intel tower instead.

It seems as thought the mistake of thinking that Adobe software is the only product driving Tower sales for Apple. That's wrong.

Video editors are eagerly awaiting this product, as the G5's are not competitive. With the FCP Suite going universal, that will drive a fair amount of sales.

Quark will also be universal shortly, and even with the sentiment on these boards as to InDesign, Quark still leads the publishing world.

Now that Pro-Tools, Apple's Logic Pro, and other major audio editing software and hardware are also universal, this is going to have a significant effect as well.

The biological sciences are big users of Apple's machines as well, and I know they have been eagerly awaiting these.

Architectural firms in Europe also use the machines to a much greater extent than here, and much of the programs have also gone native.

So, all in all, I certainly don't see sales plummeting. Will they pick up further after Adobe is ready? Of course! But they are not more than partly dependent upon it.
post #17 of 19
Quote:
Originally posted by acacio
The second is a Business Consultant that likes to paint using Corel for PC and even so bought a Mac with intention to dual-boot. In his case, he explicitly told me it was the (in)famous iPod Halo effect that triggered the buy. I never thought it was real! [/B]

It's been debated on and off. I think it exists, but I don't think it is as strong as proponents claim it is. The halo effect has been credited to be part of Apple's market share doubling in less than two years. That's not proof, but I think it's hard to totally rule it out. The sales did increase during iPod's very good years, but they didn't go up near exponentially like the iPod.
post #18 of 19
Is there an estimate on how much slower a intel power mac will be in comparison to a G5 quad for CS2?

If the difference is minor then I wouldn't expect much impact on sales given that the purchase is far more future proof than a G5 mac and a big speed bump would be expected when it went universal.

As they say, there is pent up demand...that should offset the folks that intend to wait for universal versions of whatever.

Vinea
post #19 of 19
Quote:
Originally posted by JeffDM
It's been debated on and off. I think it exists, but I don't think it is as strong as proponents claim it is. The halo effect has been credited to be part of Apple's market share doubling in less than two years. That's not proof, but I think it's hard to totally rule it out. The sales did increase during iPod's very good years, but they didn't go up near exponentially like the iPod.

The only evidence of it is the rise in iPod sales, coupled with the more modest, but still large increase increase in Mac sales last year. Of course, with the Intel changeover, Mac sales have slowed, but the increases expected this, and next quarter, they may, again, be on track.

The other evidence is more nebulous, but interesting nevertheless. The surveys taken in various parts of the world have shown that those having, or thinking of buying an iPod, are much more likely than the average population to be definately, or very likely buying a Mac as well. (I didn't say that well. )

Don't forget that buying a computer is a much more serious investment than buying a music player is. Because of that, the sales will trail. But, in what part of Apple's history did their computer sales rise by an average of over 35% a quarter?
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