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New iPods may face delays - analyst

post #1 of 67
Thread Starter 
Shares of Apple Computer fell over 2 percent in early morning trading after one Wall Street analyst said new versions of the company's iPod nano and video iPod players may be delayed by a much as six months.

"We previously believed that new nanos and the widescreen video iPod could ship in Q3 and Q4, respectively," American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu told clients in a research note. "However, we now believe that both could be delayed by a quarter or two."

Wu now sees a new iPod nano arriving during the December quarter rather than the September quarter. The analyst attributes the delay to Apple's change of SOC (system-on-a-chip) suppliers, in which it elected to use chips from Samsung rather than long-time iPod component supplier PortalPlayer.

"We believe the price points will remain the same at $199 and $249, but that storage capacities will be doubled to 4GB and 8GB, up from 2GB and 4GB," Wu wrote. He made no comment on plans for Apple's 1GB iPod nano offering.

Meanwhile, the analyst said issues surrounding battery life continue to be the "key gating technical factor" that could delay the launch of the much-rumored widescreen video iPod until the first half of 2007.

"Apple is aiming to increase both the screen size and improve the battery life -- two conflicting attributes that are difficult to improve simultaneously and require significant engineering," he wrote. "Depending on how much progress is made, we are picking up that wireless Bluetooth headphones may or may not be included with this next-generation vPod."

Wu said Apple has been experimenting with several different methods to reduce battery consumption, including the use of better battery management software, a bigger battery, and both NAND flash and microdrives. The analyst maintains that when the player does hit the market, it will be a high-end compliment to the company's current video iPod line and not a replacement.

"While it may sound counterintuitive, a positive side effect of these product delays could mean better spacing of iPods in 2007," he said. "With the original nano and vPod released a month apart in late 2005, it created a very strong December quarter but exhausted Apple's iPod pipeline for 2006."

Wu retains a Buy rating on shares of Apple but reduced his price target from $101 to $75 to "reflect the equity market's lower trading multiple."
post #2 of 67
And I just had to have APL and bought when it was $72. Tisk tisk.
post #3 of 67
Not to worry the Analyst wanted to buy some Apple too so he invented the delay story so he could get in cheaper.
post #4 of 67
ignorant asshole.
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"If it weren't for my horse...I wouldn't have spent that year in college."

"If curling is an olympic sport, then oral sex is adultery. If anything, oral sex should be an olympic sport...cause it's...
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post #5 of 67
Who? Me or the analyst?

I would submit neither. I'm not convinced the analysts are so much ignorant as "tangentally motivated." Though not quite in the way I implied.

If you are trying to indict me, then I'll let you continue to be ignorant of the fact that the core of humor is feigned ignorance.
post #6 of 67
People are really earning money with this analyst stuff? Or is this you, Cpt Obvious?
post #7 of 67
Quote:
Originally posted by crees!
And I just had to have APL and bought when it was $72. Tisk tisk.

Haha me too. I'm not selling a share until several years from now though
post #8 of 67
Quote:
Originally posted by Sopphode
Haha me too. I'm not selling a share until several years from now though

Same here. Just going to hold on to it and let it do its thing.
post #9 of 67
Quote:
Originally posted by ChevalierMalFet
Who? Me or the analyst?

I would submit neither. I'm not convinced the analysts are so much ignorant as "tangentally motivated." Though not quite in the way I implied.

If you are trying to indict me, then I'll let you continue to be ignorant of the fact that the core of humor is feigned ignorance.


haha. not talking to you. just lashing out because these morons have more to do with what the stock does than any product the companies out there release.
"If it weren't for my horse...I wouldn't have spent that year in college."

"If curling is an olympic sport, then oral sex is adultery. If anything, oral sex should be an olympic sport...cause it's...
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"If it weren't for my horse...I wouldn't have spent that year in college."

"If curling is an olympic sport, then oral sex is adultery. If anything, oral sex should be an olympic sport...cause it's...
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post #10 of 67
How about a refresh on the 5G while we're waiting? Put an 80 GB or larger drive in it and I'll buy it today. I can't add new music to my 60 GB photo without taking something off, and my space for podcasts is approaching zero. Is Seagate making the perpendicular drives in iPod size yet?
post #11 of 67
Quote:
Originally posted by _ alliance _
haha. not talking to you. just lashing out because these morons have more to do with what the stock does than any product the companies out there release.

I hear you, that was my reaction too.
post #12 of 67
Quote:
Originally posted by F1Turbo
How about a refresh on the 5G while we're waiting? Put an 80 GB or larger drive in it and I'll buy it today. I can't add new music to my 60 GB photo without taking something off, and my space for podcasts is approaching zero. Is Seagate making the perpendicular drives in iPod size yet?


that's the thing. this guy has no idea if that will or will not happen. he is just speculating over the next all-new ipod revisions. slight changes to keep the ipod fresh are always possible. hell, a new ipod could show up tomorrow. remember the intel change earlier this year? quite a bit ahead of schedule, was it not? these morons can't read the future, but people believe their words like scripture...
"If it weren't for my horse...I wouldn't have spent that year in college."

"If curling is an olympic sport, then oral sex is adultery. If anything, oral sex should be an olympic sport...cause it's...
Reply
"If it weren't for my horse...I wouldn't have spent that year in college."

"If curling is an olympic sport, then oral sex is adultery. If anything, oral sex should be an olympic sport...cause it's...
Reply
post #13 of 67
There is no way Apple would allow the holiday season to pass without introducing some new hotness.
If they are selling the same iPod video and nano that was hot last year they will look stagnant.
post #14 of 67
Quote:
The analyst attributes the delay to Apple's change of SOC (system-on-a-chip) suppliers, in which it elected to use audio decoder chips from Samsung rather than long-time iPod component supplier PortalPlayer.

Which is it, a change of SoaCs, or a change of "audio decoder chips"? I assumem you mean the former, since 1) all previous and current iPods aside from the shuffle use PortalPlayer SoaCs and 2) Apple supposedly is moving to Samsung SoaCs.

Assuming it's the latter, of course, that poses the question why Katie Marsal thinks Apple used "audio decoder chips" from PortalPlayer in the past, since I haven't seen a single iPod model where this rings true. Instead, all previous and current iPods (again, shuffle aside) used "audio decoder chips" from Wolfson Microelectronics.

Does journalism not include 2 minutes of research any more? Jeez.
post #15 of 67
I hate how these analysts think they know what they're talking about based off pure speculation. They probably make bets w/ co workers to see how much they can affect Apple's stock.
post #16 of 67
Hey, from what I've seen from Shaw Wu, he's usually very generous in his opinion of Apple. He had the price target at 101! That's higher than any other analyst I believe. I think he knows what he's talking about. Although, I do hope he's wrong.

Maybe this will put pressure on Steve to over work the Apple iPod division some more =D
post #17 of 67
Quote:
Originally posted by DeaPeaJay
Hey, from what I've seen from Shaw Wu, he's usually very generous in his opinion of Apple. He had the price target at 101! That's higher than any other analyst I believe. I think he knows what he's talking about. Although, I do hope he's wrong.

No No. He's just thinkng up a couple of reasons to cover his ass and reduce $101 to something more realistic.
post #18 of 67
This is the same expert analyst that said we wouldnt see a MacBook until July. Do these people have any idea of the kind of damage they do?
post #19 of 67
They shouldn't have called the new widescreen, touch-screen version the iPod Vista.

That name is just the Kiss Of Death.
post #20 of 67
Just like with any other "authorities" you shouldn't take the advice of just one analyst until she/he has a long enough track record or special knowledge. Wu was never mentioned in the forums until this last year, so he has little track record. He has made some mistakes and his data is merely tracking what anyone could if they took the time, so he has no special knowledge.

Going from $101 to $70+ per share is a reaction to the overall market. There is no more dotcom stories out there, there is no more echo of the dotcoms out there, now that Google has run its course, so the stock market is no longer going to be the big earner that it has been over the last few decades as a whole. Apple will still have great days and innovation, but I believe that the entire market is undergoing a "correction" that will prevent anyone from making really big gains. We are returning to the 1970's in that respect - high fuel costs, rising inflation, wartime instability and an ominous national debt. All these will effect how EVERY stock is being evaluated and that includes Wu's change in AAPL.
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post #21 of 67
Quote:
Originally posted by _ alliance _
that's the thing. this guy has no idea if that will or will not happen. he is just speculating... ...these morons can't read the future, but people believe their words like scripture...

Says the guy on a rumor site
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iMac G5 (20"); iPod 5.5G 30GB; MacBook (Black) Core Duo
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post #22 of 67
Quote:
Originally posted by macFanDave
They shouldn't have called the new widescreen, touch-screen version the iPod Vista.

That name is just the Kiss Of Death.

post #23 of 67
Quote:
Originally posted by AppleInsider
...the use of better battery management software, a bigger battery, and both NAND flash and microdrives.

I have been thinking this all along after the first hybrid drives were announced... adding 10-20 GB of Flash along with the current 1.8" drive could be feasable?? pricewise?? and as stated above, would increase battery life by a considerable amount. A bigger battery?? I dont know about bulking up the player after all that engineering to slim it down.... but we will see.
post #24 of 67
I've been saving that 100 dollar coupon I got when they dropped the price of Aperture. I hope it doesn't expire before the new pods are out. There's nothing Apple related that I want right now besides an iPod.. :'(
post #25 of 67
excuse my ignorance, but people like Wu do this kinda thing to pressure Apple into releasing new ipods soon?? or just plain Wall Street Evil?
post #26 of 67
Quote:
Originally posted by iPickle06
excuse my ignorance, but people like Wu do this kinda thing to pressure Apple into releasing new ipods soon?? or just plain Wall Street Evil?

Does anyone know what Wu's credentials are? He certainly seems to be privy to the type of info that Apple works very hard to keep under wraps. Or is this just Wall Street speculation (aka "scare tactics")?
post #27 of 67
Quote:
Originally posted by iPickle06
excuse my ignorance, but people like Wu do this kinda thing to pressure Apple into releasing new ipods soon?? or just plain Wall Street Evil?

Neither (believe it or not). He's an analyst. Its his job to take all the data he can get his hands on and attempt to discern the future. Then, based on this, they release guidance as to what people might want to think to do with their stock based on this analysis. (BTW, analysis like this is meant more for the short-term buyer/seller, not so much for the long-term investor.) With Apple this is all even harder, because Apple doesn't like to let anyone know what the future holds.

Of course, if the guy says anything Apple-negative, he's blasted as being a moron or trying to push the stock down to buy low. If he says good things about Apple, he's called a genius and people are happy there's finally some analyst who knows what he's talking about (oddly, they never claim the good analysis is just trying to push the stock higher so he can sell).

Quote:
Originally posted by xflare
This is the same expert analyst that said we wouldnt see a MacBook until July. Do these people have any idea of the kind of damage they do?

What kind of damage are you talking about? A drop in a stock price isn't damage. And what kind of damage would occur to people who, when new iPods don't ship like they expected, and see the stock drop on them without warning?

BTW, maybe what he said was that we wouldn't see the non-whining/hissing/mooing/meowing, non-lap-burning Macbooks until July.
post #28 of 67
Many analysts base their predictions off the consensus of industry insiders, whose data is arrived at by watching rumors and speculation posted on rumour and fan sites. The aforementioned predictions are then posted onto rumour and fan sites as news, leading to a whole new round of rumours and speculation, with the preceding round now being taken as fact.

What a fun, vicious little circle.
The evil that we fight is but the shadow of the evil that we do.
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The evil that we fight is but the shadow of the evil that we do.
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post #29 of 67
Quote:
Originally posted by Frank777
What a fun, vicious little circle.

Hey, thanks for enlightening me. Now if only we could get that crystal ball theory going...

post #30 of 67
Quote:
Originally posted by xflare
This is the same expert analyst that said we wouldnt see a MacBook until July. Do these people have any idea of the kind of damage they do?

During last quarters analysts call, they tried to pin Apple down on that one, but They wouldn't tell. The impression that I got was that it wouldn't come out before late June. It's Apple's fault for being so secretive.

The analysts are just doing their job. If Apple won't cooperate, they have to find other sources. Sometimes they're right, and sometimes wrong.
post #31 of 67
Quote:
Originally posted by Louzer
A drop in a stock price isn't damage.

HUH?! Today I lost $8000 thanks to Wu's commentary, which MAY or MAY NOT be correct. And Apple lost another 2.46% of worth to run their business on. That is damage.

The market can stay irrational longer than some people can stay solvent.
post #32 of 67
Quote:
Originally posted by jamezog
Does anyone know what Wu's credentials are? He certainly seems to be privy to the type of info that Apple works very hard to keep under wraps. Or is this just Wall Street speculation (aka "scare tactics")?

They talk to suppliers, parts manufacturers, etc. They go to China, and Taiwan to visit the plants, and have sources within the organizations. Some things are obvious. If a company that makes iPods for Apple suddenly orders parts known to be used in the iPod, one can reasonably speculate that something is up. Most of this company activity can't be controlled by Apple, because it is standard industry practice to release it. Sometimes it's the law.
post #33 of 67
Quote:
Originally posted by McHuman
HUH?! Today I lost $8000 thanks to Wu's commentary, which MAY or MAY NOT be correct. And Apple lost another 2.46% of worth to run their business on. That is damage.

The market can stay irrational longer than some people can stay solvent.

I lost more than that. But, that's life. I'm supposing that it will go up again.
post #34 of 67
Quote:
Originally posted by melgross
I lost more than that. But, that's life. I'm supposing that it will go up again.

Hmm..but I get the feeling you lost money that AAPL previously made for you, eh? I'm a late commer and have not had any luck this year yet.
post #35 of 67
Quote:
Originally posted by McHuman
Hmm..but I get the feeling you lost money that AAPL previously made for you, eh? I'm a late commer and have not had any luck this year yet.

No. I'm WAY ahead. It would have to go below $8.40.
post #36 of 67
You know, when I asked I recommended a friend by Apple a while ago, when it was at $14ish (pre-split). He did, and good for him, but I sure as hell wish I had the disposable income then to have invested myself. That's a serious return on investment.
post #37 of 67
Quote:
Originally posted by melgross
No. I'm WAY ahead. It would have to go below $8.40.


I shoulda known!

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

 

Get the lowdown on the coming collapse:  http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45010

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post #38 of 67
Quote:
Originally posted by Johnny Mozzarella
There is no way Apple would allow the holiday season to pass without introducing some new hotness.
If they are selling the same iPod video and nano that was hot last year they will look stagnant.

Absolutely. Apple is not going to miss out on the pre-Christmas iPod sales bonanza they have experienced for the past few years. I suspect they will have anticipated the engineering problems and factored them into their development schedules.

Reducing Apple's share price guide by 30% based on a rumour is ridiculous. This guy keeps coming out with this wild speculation which seems to have no basis in fact. Isn't this the same guy who keeps changing his view on when the iPhone will be released - sometime between next month and 2009 wasn't it? Get another job mate!!
post #39 of 67
These are always golden buying opportunities. Remember the rumor that they were going to buy someone out just prior to the iTMS launch? I scooped up a bunch on the 27.00 low and doubled my money in 6 months.

Analysts are bufoons, and it's our job to take advantage of their idiocy. (I'm a contrarian when it comes to buying stock, and it's always worked.)

Do what you will, but harm none.

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Do what you will, but harm none.

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post #40 of 67
Quote:
"Depending on how much progress is made, we are picking up that wireless Bluetooth headphones may or may not be included with this next-generation vPod."

Am i missing something here? Covering himself a bit isn't he?

Yes, i'm guessing the new iPod video, might or might not have touch screen. Aren't i brilliant.
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