Keynote post mortem: More (unspoken) shots at MS - Page 2

[quote] Very good post, an interesting viewpoint that I hadn't fully elaborated or put into summary so well. Your grammar could use some work, but the content is pure gold.

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Thanks Brad. I'm litterally using my computer on the floor because I just moved and need to buy a new 'puter desk so typing is a PITA.


[quote]Originally posted by groverat:
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Why more important or helpful than, say, breaking the dependence on Adobe?

[edit]

Here's my broader point:

The OS wars are over, Apple lost a LONG time ago. It will not restart the OS wars. They are over. Microsoft won.

If you/we continue to look at this as if Apple and Microsoft are real competitors fighting for market share you won't be able to see it correctly.

If Apple can provide a strong customer base to make the MacBU lots of money, all this talk is moot because MS will let them keep making money on the Mac platform.

[ 07-22-2002: Message edited by: groverat ]</strong><hr></blockquote>


"Apple has lost the OS Wars"

That is a Myth. There never was an OS war that was won. It still exists. Microsoft has one battle after battle but winning the War may never happen. If we still have OS X if we still have Linux and BSD then the battles will remain and some will be won by Apple, Linux and other smaller OS's.

Apple cannot exceed by allowing Microsoft leverage. Microsofts greatest strengths have been the incredible fortune to become the de facto standard. They have used those means effectively by curtailing Open Standards in lieu of Proprietary standards. The only way to attack and defeat Microsoft will be to BREAK these standards. Apple doesn't have to seek independance from Adobe because Adobe doesn't make a competing OS..hence they cannot "Print Money" as Jobs likes to say. As a matter of fact Apple and Adobe need to be allies as much as possible. Let me illustrate.


-.doc format

Apples move to PDF in the OS not only gave them most of the advantages of Display Postscript for cheap but it breaks the dependance of .doc. Adobe has been working on this for years and Apple deftly dovetails their needs in with Adobes.

-.DirectX

Apple purchase OpenGL from Conix. Sure this has helped Gaming and to a certain extent 3D apps but the real prize may be OpenGL's enhancement via an API like <a href="http://www.khronos.org/openml/index.html" target="_blank">OpenML</a> which is another attempt to break Microsofts Proprietary DirectX. Should Apple be able to comfortably leverage their existing Tech with this API it would go along way towards improving the platform.

Outlook
It's already been mentioned on these boards about the significance of iCal and iSync. Apple is laying groundwork to break the Exchange stranglehold. mail.app is adding features and I wouldn't be suprised to see a lightweight Server with Exchangelike features eventually pop into OSX Server. The work alone on mail.app proves that Apple intends for this app to be the one it's users will standardize on. iSync uses SyncML which should show up in more devices. Palm sync is going bye bye and the only game in town.

Networking
Apple has really closed the gap here. OS9 was pretty much a basic networking OS while OSX is a heavyweight. Not only has Apple moved to LDAP in a big way but they're adding the "Apple Touch" with things like Rendezvous based on ...once again Open <a href="http://www.zeroconf.org/" target="_blank">Zero Config</a>. In addition they play nice with MS when they have to.

Vertical Markets

What's going to capture the minds of Computer users going forward? It's not going to be the latest Brower or Office Suite update. It's the things like Desktop Video made easy. It's sharing information between devices and reducing the clutter and headaches involved . Apple is setting itself up to dominate from the top down. There's no excitement in Windowsland. The excitement there is simply the evolutionary stuff like Memory types and AGP busses. That's not going to appeal to the masses.


The masses want software that performs. Apple is well suited to provide a cohesive group of software apss that soon will change the way people interact with their computer. They kicker is that they're using standards available to everone ...the crafty part is that it doesn't hurt Apple to do so...yet it's the antithesis of what Microsoft wants. There is your NEW Battle Groverat. Look and you will see it's clearly defined. Apple is no longer pushing Apple invented Tech as before. They are picking their battles wisely.

Microsoft is huge but even Goliath was felled by Davids Stone. The time is now...and I think that Apple realizes this. The next two years will undoubtedly be the most exciting/nervewracking period in 10 years. Be prepared.

[quote] If we still have OS X if we still have Linux and BSD then the battles will remain and some will be won by Apple, Linux and other smaller OS's.<hr></blockquote>

For the desktop market, Microsoft is king and intertia alone sustains that crown for years and years.

[quote]Apple cannot exceed by allowing Microsoft leverage.<hr></blockquote>

Apple cannot change it, either.
Do you think including .PDF in OSX is going to break dependence on .doc? Do you really think half the people out there using Windows know what OSX is much less what it's doing with PDF?

[quote]They have used those means effectively by curtailing Open Standards in lieu of Proprietary standards.<hr></blockquote>

And if the open standards overrun their proprietary they can easily include the open standard in their software because, well, it's an open standard.

[quote]Apple purchase OpenGL from Conix. Sure this has helped Gaming and to a certain extent 3D apps but the real prize may be OpenGL's enhancement via an API like <a href="http://www.khronos.org/openml/index.html" target="_blank">OpenML</a> which is another attempt to break Microsofts Proprietary DirectX.<hr></blockquote>

You can break DirectX perhaps, but you won't break Microsoft, not even a little.

[quote]Should Apple be able to comfortably leverage their existing Tech with this API it would go along way towards improving the platform.<hr></blockquote>

Improving the platform, sure, but changing anything? No.
Putting a dent in Microsoft's armor? No.

Windows is king, for the most part Apple has accepted that and has seemingly made strides to ensure compatability and cross-platform friendliness.

[quote]It's already been mentioned on these boards about the significance of iCal and iSync. Apple is laying groundwork to break the Exchange stranglehold. mail.app is adding features and I wouldn't be suprised to see a lightweight Server with Exchangelike features eventually pop into OSX Server.<hr></blockquote>

Who uses Exchange?
Who doesn't use Macs?

The answer to those questions is the same.

Again: this will improve the Mac platform, but won't take Microsoft down.

[quote]Apple has really closed the gap here.<hr></blockquote>

Agreed. Apple finally has an OS that acts like a real computer on a network.

[quote]It's the things like Desktop Video made easy. It's sharing information between devices and reducing the clutter and headaches involved . Apple is setting itself up to dominate from the top down. There's no excitement in Windowsland. The excitement there is simply the evolutionary stuff like Memory types and AGP busses. That's not going to appeal to the masses.<hr></blockquote>

You haven't been paying much attention. So little attention, in fact, you have yet to notice that Apple has jumped onto these bandwagons (in regards to digital media, with the exception of iMovie) very late in the game.

There's a Windows rev coming out that is controlled by a freakin' remote whose only purpose is easy digital media manipulation and display.

iMovie beats any corresponding app on Windows. And that's it.
iTunes: I'll stick with EAC/CDex/WinAmp
iPhoto: I would expect a lot more from such a slow app. Killing free uploads to a homepage, ouch.
iCal: <img src="graemlins/lol.gif" border="0" alt="[Laughing]" />
iSync: Nifty, but how useful in the real world today?
Mail: Ooh, a spam filter. Still a substandard e-mail app.

[quote]There is your NEW Battle Groverat. Look and you will see it's clearly defined. Apple is no longer pushing Apple invented Tech as before. They are picking their battles wisely.<hr></blockquote>

The new battle is Apple using other people's work to improve their platform?
If there were a real threat and the market wanted to move to open standards, wouldn't Microsoft maintain its dominance by simply incorporating these standards?

Does the market even give a damn so long as the stuff works?

Macs are great computers and I hope Apple continues to improve the platform, but Apple lost a long time ago. Thinking that a 5% niche product is going to come out using a few open-standards and a prima-donna CEO to change things is naive.

[quote]The OS wars are over, Apple lost a LONG time ago. It will not restart the OS wars. They are over. Microsoft won.<hr></blockquote>

actually, this reminds me of what i used to hear when people would talk about lotus notes and word perfect.

any of the kids on these boards know what those apps are?

today i run across all sorts of people who've never even heard of them, and at one time they completely ruled their respective markets.

as long as there is some kind of competition, nothing is over.

however, apple is working from a hole that i don't really think they're ever going to get out of. to switch to a mac you need a new machine. to switch your word processor you need new software.

buying a whole new machine, then all new software to take a bite out of the competition is probably too much to overcome the inertia that windows has at this point. whether or not they'll keep that up is yet to be seen. the state lawsuits against MS have been strangely quite lately, i think in a large part it will depend on how those pan out.

i think apple has positioned itself about as well as it can to try and increase market share, lower price points being the one area that's sorely lacking.

OSX is placed well. the iApps are placed well. just keep DRM out of the OS and they have a real shot. start tossing in DRM crap and subscription based updates and you'll never see much of a switch.

I find that I agree with both hmurchison and groverat. I think the problem here is that we're thinking in terms of a win/lose situation with Apple and Microsoft. Really, can it be that simple?

Right now Apple is doing something else to move beyond simply preserving themselves - the Switch campaign. Instead of continuing to sell Macs to their entrenched user base, they're now actively pursuing Windows users. The question then is not whether Apple will win or lose, but whether or not they can gain marketshare by selling to Windows users. I hope, and I think, they can.

Alcimedes.


The Computer Generation gap is pretty funny. I mean no disrespect to users in their early 20's but 10 years ago your were pree-teens. Many of you don't remember the dominance of IBM Mainframes...Lotus...Syquest and other Stalwarts that vanished so quickly. Microsoft is a whole 'nother beast because they have the Golden Egg..the OS. But ....


[quote] OSX is placed well. the iApps are placed well. just keep DRM out of the OS and they have a real shot. start tossing in DRM crap and subscription based updates and you'll never see much of a switch <hr></blockquote>

This is the biggie. All the speed in the world won't matter in the PC market once the crimp has been placed in Windows. Apple should take heed to avoid this as lack of DRM will bring over more users than the Switch Campaign.