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Analyst: Apple to hit upper-end of guidance

post #1 of 23
Thread Starter 
Apple Computer, which reports earnings from is third fiscal quarter this Wednesdays, is expected post results near the upper-end of its guidance, according to American Technology Research.

"We anticipate Apple to report results at the upper-end, if not exceed, its guidance of $4.2 - $4.4 billion in revenue and 39 cents - 42 scents in earnings-per-share (EPS)," Shaw Wu, an analyst at the firm, told clients on Monday.

For the quarter, Wu has been modeling sales of 8.3 million iPods and 1.2 million Macs, which he believes will fuel revenues of $4.4 billion and earnings of 44 cents per shares.

However, Wu is taking exception to Wall Street's consensus estimates that Apple will reach the $5 billion revenue milestone during its (current) fourth fiscal quarter, which ends in September.

"We continue to believe that consensus revenue of $5 billion, looking for 13 percent quarter-over-quarter growth, is unreasonably aggressive," he said.

The analyst said this outlook for the current quarter should longer come as a surprise, given that several other analysts now share his view that the next-generation iPod nano will likely see a multi-month delay.

Instead, Wu is expecting Apple to offer guidance of $4.6 billion for its fourth fiscal quarter, which would imply sequential growth of about 5 percent.

"With Apple shares off about 22 percent since its last earnings report, we believe expectations on Apple are fairly muted," he said. "In addition, many of our sell-side peers have reigned in their unrealistic expectations."

"We have noticed that Apple shares tend to be overbought or oversold," the analyst added. "With the stock now trading at 20 times our calendar year 2007 EPS, we believe there is an over-discounting of Apple's fundamentals and growth prospects that remain among the strongest in large-cap technology.

American Technology Research continues to rate shares of Apple a "Buy" with a price target of $75.
post #2 of 23
Holy cannelloni!
post #3 of 23
Mommy pastrami!

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply
post #4 of 23
boooooorrrrrrriiiiiinnnnnnnggggggg.
fake screenshots of leopard are more interesting than this.
"Humanity as a collective
subject has to set a limit, and freely renounce
further 'progress' in this direction." - On Windows Vista
Reply
"Humanity as a collective
subject has to set a limit, and freely renounce
further 'progress' in this direction." - On Windows Vista
Reply
post #5 of 23
Quote:
Originally posted by scientifics
boooooorrrrrrriiiiiinnnnnnnggggggg.
fake screenshots of leopard are more interesting than this.

Believe it or not, Apple's financials are tied to its products, and that includes Leopard. With the new OS and the completion of the intel transition, I'd say it is time to buy
Apple (stock that is). The major factor keeping the stock price down is the iPod. If the new iPod video is released in time for the holiday shopping season, expect the stock to hit the analysts estimate of $75-85/share.
post #6 of 23
Quote:
Originally posted by Neruda

Double post. sorry. buy apple!
post #7 of 23
Go Shaw, go Shaw, go Shaw!
post #8 of 23
Quote:
Originally posted by Neruda
Believe it or not, Apple's financials are tied to its products, and that includes Leopard. With the new OS and the completion of the intel transition, I'd say it is time to buy
Apple (stock that is). The major factor keeping the stock price down is the iPod. If the new iPod video is released in time for the holiday shopping season, expect the stock to hit the analysts estimate of $75-85/share.

Just as long as it stays above the price I bought it at I'll be happy
post #9 of 23
Quote:
Originally posted by Neruda
Believe it or not, Apple's financials are tied to its products, and that includes Leopard.

waaaahh!
post #10 of 23
Quote:
Originally posted by meelash
waaaahh!

Ever heard of the terms:
earnings per share or price/earnings ratio?

Both take into account Apple's earnings (mainly from all the products Apple sells although there are other sources of income), investors in turn use these numbers to analyze the stock, these numbers in turn are one of many factors that influence the stock price......
post #11 of 23
I was thinking of buying some AAPL. Should I buy now or wait till after Apple reports earnings from is third fiscal quarter on Wednesday (when some people say the price will most likely go down)?
post #12 of 23
Quote:
Originally posted by MauiMac
I was thinking of buying some AAPL. Should I buy now or wait till after Apple reports earnings from is third fiscal quarter on Wednesday (when some people say the price will most likely go down)?

I wouldn't totally rely on anyone's opinion on this board, but I did just buy another handful at $51. Good thing I did.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply
post #13 of 23
Quote:
Originally posted by MauiMac
I was thinking of buying some AAPL. Should I buy now or wait till after Apple reports earnings from is third fiscal quarter on Wednesday (when some people say the price will most likely go down)?

From the article:
"We have noticed that Apple shares tend to be overbought or oversold," the analyst added. "With the stock now trading at 20 times our calendar year 2007 EPS, we believe there is an over-discounting of Apple's fundamentals and growth prospects that remain among the strongest in large-cap technology.

Part of this over-discounting is due to several factors, with the delay in the introduction of an updated iPod being on the top of the list, IMO. Look at the upside potential next quarter/year, however:
-completion of product transition to intel across product line
-introduction of Leopard. Release sometime next year.
-release of updated iPod video...
-introduction of new products (who knows what those will be).

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ao?s=AAPL

Short term, expect this quarter's earnings report and announcemnts at WWDC to impact the stock price. The stock WILL go up after the developer's conference. Guaranteed.

Long term: the stock is a good buy. It is up to you if want to wait until Wednesday.

Spam'wich: you bought at 51, way to go man. I told people to buy when it was at 14 (those were dark days man), and no one took my advice. Suckers.
post #14 of 23
Quote:
Originally posted by Neruda
Spam'wich: you bought at 51, way to go man. I told people to buy when it was at 14 (those were dark days man), and no one took my advice. Suckers.

My only regret is I didn't buy more AAPL way back when it was just at 11! It's all good.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply
post #15 of 23
"...- 42 scents in earnings-per-share (EPS),"

In my estimation something stinks about this analysis.
post #16 of 23
Quote:
Originally posted by Neruda
Ever heard of the terms:
earnings per share or price/earnings ratio?

Both take into account Apple's earnings (mainly from all the products Apple sells although there are other sources of income), investors in turn use these numbers to analyze the stock, these numbers in turn are one of many factors that influence the stock price......


waaaaaaaaaaah!
post #17 of 23
"...billion in revenue and 39 cents - 42 scents..."

42 SCENTS?? wow please dont tell me Apple is going to start marketing perfumes now
post #18 of 23
Quote:
Originally posted by syzygy38
"...- 42 scents in earnings-per-share (EPS),"

In my estimation something stinks about this analysis.

because of the typo? or is that figure unreasonable?
post #19 of 23
This will be news when Apple re-instates dividend payments.
post #20 of 23
Just to remind you peeps to look out for earnings results This Afternoon, Wednesday. 2pm Pacific USA/ 5pm Eastern USA/ 9pm somewhere in Europe/ 5am Thursday where I live.
post #21 of 23
Apple selling a million Macs in a QUARTER is a big fucking deal. Really. Back a few years they used to sell over a million only in a whole friggin' YEAR. IIRC.
post #22 of 23
Quote:
Originally posted by sunilraman
Apple selling a million Macs in a QUARTER is a big fucking deal. Really. Back a few years they used to sell over a million only in a whole friggin' YEAR. IIRC.

Apple is now the fourth biggest PC supplier in the US. Hopefully, Apple will continue to gain marketshare.
post #23 of 23
Quote:
Originally Posted by Neruda

From the article:
"We have noticed that Apple shares tend to be overbought or oversold," the analyst added. "With the stock now trading at 20 times our calendar year 2007 EPS, we believe there is an over-discounting of Apple's fundamentals and growth prospects that remain among the strongest in large-cap technology.

Part of this over-discounting is due to several factors, with the delay in the introduction of an updated iPod being on the top of the list, IMO. Look at the upside potential next quarter/year, however:
-completion of product transition to intel across product line
-introduction of Leopard. Release sometime next year.
-release of updated iPod video...
-introduction of new products (who knows what those will be).

Short term, expect this quarter's earnings report and announcemnts at WWDC to impact the stock price. The stock WILL go up after the developer's conference. Guaranteed.

Long term: the stock is a good buy. It is up to you if want to wait until Wednesday.

Hate to toot my own horn, but the stock was at 51 when I told people on this board to buy Apple stock. Well, okay, analysts placed the upper end of guidance at 80, so I'm not exactly Warren Buffet. The stock is now at 71.48. That is a gain of about $20.48.
Did you buy any shares, MauiMac?

More predictions:
Short term:
Expect the stock price to be affected by the product announcements expected this month (Sept 12, according to rumors). Notice that I said "affected" and not rise or fall. Reason: there might be some short term profit taking which may cause the price to dip slightly.

Long term: the stock will hit 80 before Jan '07. All of the positive indicators are still present, with the one negative being the options scandal.

Disclosure: I do not currently own any Apple stock.
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