Originally posted by Hiro
Dutch - Personal computers are by definition general purpose machines that can do anything you wish to write software for. This isn't the kind of convergence portable consumer appliance types have been harping over for years. Embedded computers are different, and that is what is in the portable consumer appliance market. Like it or not, the market and technology is what it is, different.
Oh, I completely agree with you on that. Cellphones are indeed embedded computers, designed to combine limited computer power with a portable design. So indeed, most of the desktop computing tasks will not converge to any such portable device.
What I do believe, is that there are a number of portable computing tasks
that are by there very nature, highly likely to converge to a portable computing device. In the process, thusfar separate portable devices will merge into one.
What for?? For portability
!!! The main reason these things (cell phones, iPods, PDA, pocket camera's) have to be so small is that people want a low-volume, low weight portable solution for their portable computing wishes
. A desire that is currently highly frustrated by the need to carry separate devices for all this functionality. Cell Phone, iPod, pocket camera, video camera...
Because of this very big driving force, portable computing tasks will converge into one device. Sure, not for professional/ prosumer usage, but certainly for consumer computing tasks:
- voice communication
- text communication
- video communication
- playing music
- taking snapshots
- making home movies
Devices that do ALL OF THE ABOVE are for sale right now!!!
Therefore i just cannot believe how some people keep maintaining that convergence will not happen?!
Sure, I know, and fully agree, these do-all devices that are for sale now Suck Big Time at all these functions, but my main point is, with time, they will improve in
- user interface
- computing power
- storage space
up to a point were the quality and user experience of these convergent computing devices will be good enough for the majority of consumers to trade in there dedicated devices for the new breed of 'do it all - and put it in your front-pocket' type devices.
And NO, I am not predicting the end of all dedicated devices. For all the obvious reasons, SLR camera's or HDTV camcorders will stay around. It is the low key functionality that will diminish in dedicated devices.