Peter Oppenheimer drops MAJOR "iPhone" hint - Page 3

Just like 5 years ago all phones today were supposed to be PDA's and GPS receivers.

Hmm, we have a few that are also PDAs but hardly that are GPS too. The magical convergence thingie just ain't happening cause all the tries so far have basically sucked unless you are a tech junkie looking for a fix of trons.

I never made that claim. A phone that plays music is a small upgrade. I never said they would be good players either, I just said the would play music.

I never said you did. Convergence has been a mantra across electronics for about the last 15 years. It still isn't here beyond failing onsie-twosie products.

Oh man, I am so tired of that old "swiss army knife" "convergence will not happen" argument!!!

Convergence is here.
It is right in front of you.
It is called a computer.

It is a convergent device that can combine the most diverse functions that used to be bound to dedicated devices/environments:

- a typewriter
- a calculator
- a design drawing board
- a photolab
- a music playing device
- a movie editing studio
- a sound editing studio
- a gaming device
- a text/voice/video communications device
......

For all of these functions it holds true that the moment they first appeared on a computer, the dedicated device was way better equipped for it, but guess what, with hardware and software ever increasing in power and usability, the 'convergent' option, doing it on a computer, wins out in the end. Mostly due to Moore's law, allowing for evermore powerfull and versatile functionality. Think of quicktime 1.0 vs final cut pro, think of the earliest "paint" type applications vs photoshop or aperture.
At this moment in time thereare still a lot of functions that are just plain better and easier to do on/with a dedicated device, like telephony or television, but they will ultimately also converge with the computer in one way or the other.
"but this does not hold true for a cell phone!!!"
Oh no?? Why not?? what is a modern day cell phone, according to you??
It is a computer dedicated to telephony. A very limited computer, sure, very handicapped but nevertheless still a computer. Due to it's handicaps, cell phone convergence sure is way harder than regular pc convergence, but I am still convinced it will happen in the end. It is just way early, Cell phones are currently in the development stage where computers were perhaps in the late eighties/early nineties. The convergence is starting, but just as with computers back then the converging functionality still sucks big time this moment. Cell phone camera's are still sucktastic quality. music playing software clunky. Most cell phone UI's in general suck big time. We all see and know this, but the reason is not that convergence sucks and will not happen. The reason is cell phone/portable device evolution and convergence is just getting started.

/rant over

Sorry, was showing someone how to work this...

Dutch - Personal computers are by definition general purpose machines that can do anything you wish to write software for. This isn't the kind of convergence portable consumer appliance types have been harping over for years. Embedded computers are different, and that is what is in the portable consumer appliance market. Like it or not, the market and technology is what it is, different.

I couldn't wait any longer. I needed a new phone and bought it this past weekend. Sorry Apple; maybe in two years when my new contract expires you'll have a phone offering by then.

Oh, I completely agree with you on that. Cellphones are indeed embedded computers, designed to combine limited computer power with a portable design. So indeed, most of the desktop computing tasks will not converge to any such portable device.
What I do believe, is that there are a number of portable computing tasks that are by there very nature, highly likely to converge to a portable computing device. In the process, thusfar separate portable devices will merge into one.
What for?? For portability!!! The main reason these things (cell phones, iPods, PDA, pocket camera's) have to be so small is that people want a low-volume, low weight portable solution for their portable computing wishes. A desire that is currently highly frustrated by the need to carry separate devices for all this functionality. Cell Phone, iPod, pocket camera, video camera...
Because of this very big driving force, portable computing tasks will converge into one device. Sure, not for professional/ prosumer usage, but certainly for consumer computing tasks:

- voice communication
- text communication
- video communication
- playing music
- taking snapshots
- making home movies

Devices that do ALL OF THE ABOVE are for sale right now!!!
Therefore i just cannot believe how some people keep maintaining that convergence will not happen?!

Sure, I know, and fully agree, these do-all devices that are for sale now Suck Big Time at all these functions, but my main point is, with time, they will improve in
- user interface
- functionality
- computing power
- storage space
up to a point were the quality and user experience of these convergent computing devices will be good enough for the majority of consumers to trade in there dedicated devices for the new breed of 'do it all - and put it in your front-pocket' type devices.
And NO, I am not predicting the end of all dedicated devices. For all the obvious reasons, SLR camera's or HDTV camcorders will stay around. It is the low key functionality that will diminish in dedicated devices.

Convergence is over-rated.

Especially when it comes to phones.

Eventually we're all expected to talk on the phone, then plug in headphones, take it into the car and plug it in to listen to music, plug it into my stero at home, put in an armband when I run, send emails and negotiate my business from all "around the world," have it tell me where to turn when I drive, play the radio, take videos, take pictures, play videos, display pictures, play games, keep all my information and so much more.

I'm supposed to do all that in one device?
How am I supposed to do those things at once?

I'm gonna plug my iphone into my ipod hi fi, while talking on the phone? Send an email while having it across the room in my alarm clock? Take a picture while talking into it at the same time?

In all kinds of situations convergence becomes stupid and impossible.

Companies don't really expect anyone to only buy one thing to do everything. There will always be times where you'll need to do 2 things at once, they expect that and because of that belief convergence doesn't and will not truly exist.

The day there is true convergence is they day the one thing is the only way needed to do things.

Like dutch pear says, its about portability. People would prefer to carry one box that can at least do a half assed job of doing several things (phone with music player, camera, basic internet and messaging/email) than carry a whole bunch of single purpose boxes (phone, iPod, camera, video camera, radio).

Wait for all those items to get small enough to fit one phone size object. We're pretty close.


You don't. The point is to have to carry only one device to do those things whenever you want and not 5 devices.


Its called a bluetooth headset. Or it could be the iphone streams the songs over 802.11g/n to the hi fi. Then you could text, talk and have music at the same time. You'll have to pause typing a moment to take a pic.

That you can't imagine it isn't the fault of the technology.

The reason that convergence currently sucks is that all in one devices are still a tad too big and integration is still poor. An iPod sized device is still in the future a bit.

Vinea

Nice example! So here is one possibility:
Your iPhone is in your hifi, playing music and being charged at the same time. Somebody calls you. With good convergence, the music fades away in one or two seconds and your phone rings.
By simply touching the phone (or a button on your remote) you answer the call. The built in microphone of your phone will be good enough to clearly pick up your voice while standing anywhere in the room. The voice of your conversation partner sounds brilliant coming out of your hifi. Want to go to normal calling mode? just take it out of the hifi and it automatically switches to the normal phone speaker, all while normally continuing your conversation.
Off course this will also work the other way around, which you seem to prefer


Sure, because the instant you plug your phone into your alarm clock, it will start recharging and at the same time synch all your emails with your Mac on the other side of the room by using a wireless connection to your airport. That way you're free to reply the email you've received earlier on your phone from your Mac, or the other way around.

You see, you just need some innovative thinking, but convergence is very much possible, and with some clever thinking and design the most obvious problems can be solved.
I happen to believe clever thinking and design is exactly why Apple of all companies will succeed where others have failed.

8)

This, from the LA Times, about statistics in 2004!
---
That year, police reported 775 accidents including five fatalities in which a driver at fault was using a hand-held cellphone. There were only 28 reports of accidents caused by drivers with hands-free phones.

Preliminary statistics from 2005 show the same pattern: 1,098 accidents, including six fatalities, caused by drivers holding cellphones, and 102 crashes with one fatality caused by motorists talking through a headset or intercom.

Use of a radio or CD player was listed as the second-largest cause of inattention in 2005, contributing to 892 accidents. In both years, the most common distractions after phones and music were, in order, children, eating and reading.

Big question I have is, how is Apple going to go into a crowded and highly competitive cell phone market?

They won't just go out there to be "another cell phone option" for the masses. Even a prettier one that's easier to use and plays music.

My take is that they'll release a phone designed for a very specific market segment -- Mac lover fan boys who use iLife and iPod and iChat AV -- and make everyone else envious. The first Apple "phone" will be geared toward taking that "everything multimedia" experience with you. Change the paradigm slowly from "talk" to "express" and "connect".

Thoughts?

I agree with that, except the part when you mention "a very specific market segment". A market for such a device is not specific anymore. It's actually becoming mainstream, especially among school-kids, high-school students and young adults.

There are over 2 billion GSM users worldwide. Europe only has a population of what, 300 million? 400 million? I have no idea, but it's not even close to 2 billion. I guess you're right about GSM not really being a third generation service, though. That's where UMTS/HSDPA comes in. I have a GSM/UMTS phone. If I walk out of a UMTS coverage area, it switches seamlessly, with no interruption in my call.

Doesn't seem to me like it's "limited to the Europe". Here's a hint: GSM stands for Global Standard for Mobile Communications. It's going in the direction of UMTS (Universal Mobile Telecommunications System)/HSDPA, which will soon be able to deliver data rates of 10+ mbps (currently 1.8+ mbps).

EVDO was developed by Qualcomm mainly. 'Nuff said. Vodafone have been trying to ditch Verizon and buy a "real network" in the US.

Added: You can find some useful information about HSDPA at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HSDPA . My ar

@ Robin Hood, not to ruin your rant but the poputation of Europe is over 700 million. It makes up about 11% of the worlds population.

I meant the European Union, which is what I'm sure he meant as well. I should have clarified that, since he didn't.

Added: I did some research. According to Wikipedia, the population of the European Union is 456.8 million. I don't care about the European Union, the reason I brought it up since it was a point in the original post. What I do care about is a global mobile standard.

Back to the "iPhone", if this is supposed to be a next generation product, it clearly has to support 3G, and an EVDO version couldn't hurt either. It's up to Apple to decide if the market is big enough. If it's 2.5G-only, it would be a downgrade for some, as 3G technologies become more popular. For example, for me, an iPhone would be out of the question if it didn't support 3G.

The Sony Ericsson W950i ( http://www.sonyericsson.com/spg.jsp?...=pp1&pid=10391 ) is the type of phone Apple will be up against with the iPhone. I hope they're up to it, because I would sure like the elegance of an iPod phone. That being said, the iPod being separate has its advantages -- it doesn't really matter if you your iPod battery runs out, but it would royally suck if that were to stop me from being able to make and receive calls.

I was just messin' around with ya. I have a great interest in the iPhone too. It will have 3G capabilities, I'm sure of it.

Apple files a new and timely trademark for DOPOD in Japan. Check it out!

"Apple has filed their new trademark under International Classes 9, 38 and 42 which are fully described below. The most important International Class in this group is perhaps class 38 which covers telecommunications, communication and telecommunication services. The good news, of course, is that it appears that Apple has a new class of iPod on the way. An iPod which is going to DO a lot more than their market winning iPod delivers today."

3G has been up, and running in Japan, Europe for like 10 years +. So what is next?
This is what comes to mind for me being the the US is so late to the technology game when it comes to mobile telephone technology.

If anyone is interested here is an article that pretty much gives an overview of what my thoughts are on the matter, and ponders he question of where do we go now that 3G as we know it will soon be considered a bottleneck.

Looking beyond 3G wireless

Quote from that article you linked to, "It's a tough call. There's no doubt 3G wireless will be around for at least several years, and systems such as HSDPA and EV-DO Rev A will garner millions of satisfied subscribers. There's also no doubt 3G technology will continue to be enhanced. However, at some point it might make more sense to adopt a new technology platform that can carry the industry well beyond the capabilities of HSDPA and EV-DO Rev A."

A bit premature to abandon 3G.

That is cool because one of the best looking mobile phones Japan has to offer is made by DoCoMo. It almost looks like the iPod video mockup with the wide screen on one side that people were all droling over.


Here is a shot of the same phone model in different colors.
Damn thing looks like an iPod already.
Just change the colors to all white and you have it.

• Thing has 2 million pixels (4 million recorded pixels)
• Digital Zoom Up to 28X / 65 steps.
• Color LCD\tQVGA TFT LCD; approx. 2.8 inches; 262,144 colors
• Size (Height x Width x Thickness)1 109 x 50 x 19.5 mm
• Weight approx. 116 g
• Continuous Talk Time Voice communications: approx. 165 min.
• Videophone: approx. 90 min.
• External Memory miniSD Memory Card (optional)
• Infrard Communications -
  The Phonebook, mail, melodies, images, i-motion, and more can be exchanged with equipment such as other mobile phones and PCs equipped with an infrared communications functions.
• Music Replay-

Too much to list. I'd love to have one of these with iTunes support, Maybe iTMS and a 2GB miniSD card.
Ohhh That would be the biggest thing. Apple would totally concur the mobile telephone industry in the US.

It's popping up all over though. IMO with the population in the US, and the amount of mobile phone users we have once we get 3G we will bottleneck it.


Just do a google search for "Beyond 3G networks" and you'll have more opinions, and information than you can handle. Personally I think once we go 3G everyone will want the tech, and once that happens it'll be bottlenecked within a year in the US.

http://news.zdnet.co.uk/communicatio...9187863,00.htm

http://www.technewsworld.com/story/32883.html

@ onlooker, are you saying that you think Apple might become an MVNO and use a technology that bypasses 3G performance wise, as in comes into the mobile phone world with its first offering ahead of every other existing phone company out there.

Somewhat unrelated, when apple does bring out the "iPod Phone" the iTMS will be ready as the fastest selling ringtone and mobile phone games download service in the world. If Apple does this iPhone thing right it could double the companies worth in three years, and that's not including any other Apple products whatsoever.

No. I'm not even sure where you got that idea. I was just saying that 3G is probably not going to last as long as analysts predict. Apple, if they get into this, should start looking at newer emerging technologies right away, so they can at least try to have some backward compatibility in the near future, and so they can lay out the best possible rout to take for future products that will last.

People have pushing stuff like that for ages but I don't want it to ever happen.

If we get vid screens on phones and now conference instead of talk that's not more convient to me.

I can't lie to a boss if he/she can see me.
Can't lie to a girlfriend about where you are or your not with someone else.
I can't hold it on my shoulder and type while I talk, or use the toilet ora million of the other things I do on the phone.

Having "video chats" instead of phone convorsations makes everyone have to focus on the convorsation now.

I personally never want that.
Technology has come far enough that if I want to chat to someone I can. if I want to call someone I can.

I don't want vid chats to become the norm and have everyone expect it of me.

I have a phone that can video call. Know how often I've used it? Once. To see if it worked. It did, but it still isn't useful!

3G is good for other things though, like data downloading.

People will find their own use for the tech. If video calling is as daft as it seems, people won't use it just because it's there. And there's always an option to answer just the audio part of an incoming video call

Amorya

I agree.