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Apple to refocus on consumers post Labor Day - Needham

post #1 of 29
Thread Starter 
Apple Computer is likely to regain focus on its consumer initiative around the first week of September but will first concentrate on the completion of its Intel transition at next month's World Wide Developers Conference, analysts for Needham & Co. said on Thursday.

"Apple got through another quarter of its transition to the Intel processor family," analyst Charles Wolf wrote in a research note to clients. "We believe the PowerMac, the only model not running on Intel, will receive its Intel upgrade at the Worldwide Developers Conference on August 7th."

Wolf said the most "stunning" news to come out of Apple's last quarter results were the shipments of nearly 800,000 notebooks, a 61 percent increase despite that the new MacBook was introduced halfway through the quarter. "In our opinion it's the best Mac yet in terms of price/performance," he said.

According to Wolf, Apple is likely to recommence its consumer-oriented product introductions after Labor Day (September 4th), which should include a new higher-capacity iPod nano and possibly "an all-new iPod."

"There promises to be even more come 2007 if the cryptic remarks of Peter Oppenheimer, Apple's CFO, come to pass," he wrote.

Following Apple's third quarter earnings report, Wolf raised his fiscal 2006 earnings-per-share (EPS) estimates from $1.95 to $2.15 and his 2007 estimates from $2.45 to $2.50.

"In our opinion, the tendency of investors to think linearly in an inherently non-linear world explains much of the decline in Apples share price this year," he said. "Our 2004 analysis indicated that iPod shipment growth would slow by 2005. But it should remain in a solid double-digit range over the next several years."

Wolf continues to rate shares of Apple a Buy with a price target of $90. He believes it's "ridiculous" to assume the notion that everyone who wants an iPod has one.

"We estimate that between 15 percent and 20 percent of Americans own an iPod or another portable music player," he said. "Our model indicates that steady state penetration rate could reach 50 percent by 2010."

Similarly, Wolf believes the popular notion that cell phones are going to take over the music player market is "equally ridiculous." Certainly an increasing number of cell phones will include a music player, he said, "but the love affair with convergence is way over blown, in our opinion."
post #2 of 29
>>"In our opinion, the tendency of investors to think linearly in an inherently non-linear world explains much of the decline in Apples share price this year," he wrote. "Our 2004 analysis indicated that iPod shipment growth would slow by 2005. But it should remain in a solid double-digit range over the next several years."

Wolf continues to rate shares of Apple a Buy with a price target of $90. He believes it's "ridiculous" to assume the notion that everyone who wants an iPod has one.

"We estimate that between 15 percent and 20 percent of Americans own an iPod or another portable music player," the analyst wrote. "Our model indicates that steady state penetration rate could reach 50 percent by 2010."<<

These clowns continue to crack me up with their deep understanding of Apple products and consumers...

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post #3 of 29
I'm predicting revised iMacs

September 12 to 16

Apple Expo Paris
MacBook Pro C2D 2.16GHz, 15" Matte, 2GB RAM, 120GB HD, iPod nano 2GB Black.
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MacBook Pro C2D 2.16GHz, 15" Matte, 2GB RAM, 120GB HD, iPod nano 2GB Black.
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post #4 of 29
Quote:
Originally posted by SpamSandwich

>>These clowns continue to crack me up with their deep understanding of Apple products and consumers...

Wolf is one analyst who actually has some understanding- the others whose 'expert' opinions caused Apple's share price to drop based on their 'accurate' forecasts are the real idiots. Often associated with ZDnet, CNet...
post #5 of 29
Quote:
Originally posted by SpamSandwich
>>"In our opinion, the tendency of investors to think linearly in an inherently non-linear world explains much of the decline in Apples share price this year," he wrote. "Our 2004 analysis indicated that iPod shipment growth would slow by 2005. But it should remain in a solid double-digit range over the next several years."

Wolf continues to rate shares of Apple a Buy with a price target of $90. He believes it's "ridiculous" to assume the notion that everyone who wants an iPod has one.

"We estimate that between 15 percent and 20 percent of Americans own an iPod or another portable music player," the analyst wrote. "Our model indicates that steady state penetration rate could reach 50 percent by 2010."<<

These clowns continue to crack me up with their deep understanding of Apple products and consumers...

I happen to agree with him.
post #6 of 29
Quote:
Originally posted by melgross
I happen to agree with him.

Ditto. It's tough to disagree with such a common-sense analysis, especially when it agrees so closely with the rumors we've been hearing in recent weeks.
post #7 of 29
Quote:
Originally posted by melgross
I happen to agree with him.

I guess I could have narrowed down my focus a bit... to this:
"Our model indicates that steady state penetration rate could reach 50 percent by 2010."

It's highly unlikely there would be a 50% saturation of iPods by then. I'd be happy if it were so, but I just can't believe a statistic like that. Four years from now... that might be beyond the bell curve.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #8 of 29
Quote:
Originally posted by SpamSandwich
I guess I could have narrowed down my focus a bit... to this:
"Our model indicates that steady state penetration rate could reach 50 percent by 2010."

It's highly unlikely there would be a 50% saturation of iPods by then. I'd be happy if it were so, but I just can't believe a statistic like that. Four years from now... that might be beyond the bell curve.

I don't think he means 50% of Americans will own iPods, I think he means 50% of Americans will own iPods or some other digital music player.
post #9 of 29
Although, he said,

"The PowerMac, the only model not running on Intel."

Hello! How about the XServe?
post #10 of 29
Quote:
Originally posted by Cubert
Hello! How about the XServe?

While the Xserve runs OS X Server, it isn't generally considered a Mac.
post #11 of 29
Quote:
Originally posted by Chucker
While the Xserve runs OS X Server, it isn't generally considered a Mac.

Point proven they have no idea about Apple.

G5 2GHZ Power Mac, iPod Shuffle (1st Gen),iPod Nano (2nd Gen),iPod (5th Gen), Apple TV, Apple TV 2G x2, iPad 2,iPhone 4S, rMBP 15" 2.6

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G5 2GHZ Power Mac, iPod Shuffle (1st Gen),iPod Nano (2nd Gen),iPod (5th Gen), Apple TV, Apple TV 2G x2, iPad 2,iPhone 4S, rMBP 15" 2.6

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post #12 of 29
Quote:
Originally posted by Chucker
While the Xserve runs OS X Server, it isn't generally considered a Mac.

Would there be a particular reason for that? That doesn't make sense to me.
post #13 of 29
Quote:
Originally posted by JeffDM
Would there be a particular reason for that? That doesn't make sense to me.

Because, unlike the Mac mini, the iMac, the MacBook, the MacBook Pro and the Power Mac, an Xserve is fairly useless on its own. Most of the time, you don't even have a display connected to it. Macs are autonomous machines; the Xserve is not.
post #14 of 29
1st paragraph of story should read completion, not competition.
post #15 of 29
Quote:
Originally posted by Chucker
Because, unlike the Mac mini, the iMac, the MacBook, the MacBook Pro and the Power Mac, an Xserve is fairly useless on its own. Most of the time, you don't even have a display connected to it. Macs are autonomous machines; the Xserve is not.

Actually this is not true. OS X Server comes with every default app, minus iLife which you can run.
"I'm learning how to meditate, so far so good."
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"I'm learning how to meditate, so far so good."
Donald Fagen and Walter Becker
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post #16 of 29
Quote:
Originally posted by jimbo123
Point proven they have no idea about Apple.

Your post makes no sense.

He was talking about Macs, which Chucker quite rightly pointed out, is NOT a Mac.

XServes also sell in such small quantities compared to anything else in Apple's line, that they hardly add to the numbers.
post #17 of 29
Quote:
Originally posted by JeffDM
Would there be a particular reason for that? That doesn't make sense to me.

An XServe is not a general purpose desk anything machine. It is the ultimate headless computer. But, it needs a rack, and is in a seperate division from all of Apples machines. A very small division.
post #18 of 29
Quote:
Originally posted by blue2kdave
Actually this is not true. OS X Server comes with every default app, minus iLife which you can run.

Can you enumerate how many do run that software?

Sorry, the XServe is highly specialized. It's not a "Mac". It's a server, and a machine used for large installations, such as those used in large computing facilities. Virginia used the PowerMac's for that. But you saw how fast they switched to the XServes once they became available.
post #19 of 29
Quote:
Originally posted by blue2kdave
OS X Server comes with every default app, minus iLife which you can run.

Which doesn't negate my statement at all.

But, whatever, what melgross said.
post #20 of 29
Quote:
Originally posted by melgross
Can you enumerate how many do run that software?

Sorry, the XServe is highly specialized. It's not a "Mac". It's a server, and a machine used for large installations, such as those used in large computing facilities. Virginia used the PowerMac's for that. But you saw how fast they switched to the XServes once they became available.

Sure, I think you are making the assumption that Server only runs on the xServe. I've run OS X server on a cube and mini as dev boxes (sadly, server no longer supports the cube). As far as how many run the software, who knows. But the question was is it possible. I run iTunes on Server all of the time.
"I'm learning how to meditate, so far so good."
Donald Fagen and Walter Becker
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"I'm learning how to meditate, so far so good."
Donald Fagen and Walter Becker
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post #21 of 29
Quote:
Originally posted by Chucker
Which doesn't negate my statement at all.

But, whatever, what melgross said.

yeah, I was more referring to OS Server in general, not the xServe. Should have read your post more carefully.
"I'm learning how to meditate, so far so good."
Donald Fagen and Walter Becker
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"I'm learning how to meditate, so far so good."
Donald Fagen and Walter Becker
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post #22 of 29
Quote:
Originally posted by blue2kdave
Sure, I think you are making the assumption that Server only runs on the xServe. I've run OS X server on a cube and mini as dev boxes (sadly, server no longer supports the cube). As far as how many run the software, who knows. But the question was is it possible. I run iTunes on Server all of the time.

No, I was not.

The software is distinct from the hardware.
post #23 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross

No, I was not.

The software is distinct from the hardware.

But Steve said that the soul of a Mac is its OS!

Nahh seriously guys, just watch the WWDC06 keynote again, Phil Schiller announced that the Mac transition to intel was complete, before announcing the intel xServes, saying something about how they were not Macs.
post #24 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by VL-Tone

But Steve said that the soul of a Mac is its OS!

Nahh seriously guys, just watch the WWDC06 keynote again, Phil Schiller announced that the Mac transition to intel was complete, before announcing the intel xServes, saying something about how they were not Macs.

What's in a name anyway?
post #25 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chucker

Because, unlike the Mac mini, the iMac, the MacBook, the MacBook Pro and the Power Mac, an Xserve is fairly useless on its own. Most of the time, you don't even have a display connected to it. Macs are autonomous machines; the Xserve is not.

You most certinly can use a xserve as a desktop: lots of data centers and compute clusters use a rack server for the managment modual or workstation, after all, you already have the racks and stuff in place, why shove a tower in there when a 1u rack server can do the job...they all have GPUs, and VGA (if not DVI) out, that also really helps if one goes fubar too.

Honestly, the differance between sertver and desktop is the default services and the fact that, on top of some really sweet propriatery managment tools Appple gives a nice gui frontend for unix services that you can run in terminal in any OSX.
You can't quantify how much I don't care -- Bob Kevoian of the Bob and Tom Show.
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You can't quantify how much I don't care -- Bob Kevoian of the Bob and Tom Show.
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post #26 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by a_greer

You most certinly can use a xserve as a desktop: lots of data centers and compute clusters use a rack server for the managment modual or workstation, after all, you already have the racks and stuff in place, why shove a tower in there when a 1u rack server can do the job...they all have GPUs, and VGA (if not DVI) out, that also really helps if one goes fubar too.

Honestly, the differance between sertver and desktop is the default services and the fact that, on top of some really sweet propriatery managment tools Appple gives a nice gui frontend for unix services that you can run in terminal in any OSX.

I don't think I was saying anything different. The Xserve can certainly be used as a desktop, but it's not usually practical to do so, not only because it's quite expensive for that purpose, but also because, for most users, it has an unfit form factor.
post #27 of 29
This is the most pointless argument I've ever witnessed.
post #28 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by Placebo

This is the most pointless argument I've ever witnessed.

Dude, you're on AI.
post #29 of 29
AI=Absolutely Intellectual
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