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Apple cell phone is real and ready for production - analyst

post #1 of 161
Thread Starter 
Analysts for American Technology Research on Tuesday encourage investors to get aggressive in purchasing shares of Apple Computer prior to the launch of the company's much rumored iPod cell phone, which it says is likely to revolutionize the handset industry.

"Our research indicates that an Apple-designed smart phone has moved from concept to prototype and recently has progressed to near completion as a production unit," analyst Shaw Wu told clients in a research note on Tuesday. "We believe this smart phone has been in development for over 12 months and has overcome substantial challenges including design, interference, battery life and other technical glitches."

Pointing to the existing smart phone market, Wu noted the challenges companies face when trying to produce a converged product of high quality. However, he said Apple chief executive Steve Jobs "is finally satisfied with the end product Apple engineers have produced in terms of quality and the right blend of cell phone and portable media player."

Given Jobs' previous track record, the analyst said he has the utmost confidence the Apple branded cell phone, which he says will conform to a sleek candy bar form factor, will meet the highest of standards with "no exception."

"Clearly, we would like to share more detail as we have conducted extensive work on the product pipeline, but for now, here is what we will convey," Wu wrote. "The design will be an iPod nano-like candy bar form factor and come in three colors (we are not certain of the exact colors but we suspect black, white and platinum, similar to Apple's current color scheme of iPods and Macs)."

For Apple to enter the cell phone market in the United States, it would first need to gain approval from the FCC. The process would require the traditionally tight-lipped company to disclose both photos and specifications in public filings prior to launch. But Wu says Apple could avoid premature public disclosure by announcing the device in advance with a later ship date. Moreover, he said, it could possibly submit the filing through a OEM manufacturer, similar to the route Microsoft took by gaining FCC approval for its upcoming Zune player through a Toshiba filing.

Still, what is unclear to Wu is Apple's go-to-market strategy for the device, which he believes is an ongoing and serious debate within the Cupertino, Calif.-based company. While it could take the traditional route and partner with existing wireless giants like Cingular and Verizon, it could also adopt the MVNO (mobile virtual network operator) model, where it would rent and then resell space from such carriers under its own brand.

"We believe the go-to-market strategy is likely the gating factor in Apple shipping its cell phone imminently," the analyst wrote. "However, we believe the company's 155 Apple stores will prove to be a boon regardless of the marketing strategy, proving Apple local presence and competitive advantage."

Nevertheless, Wu said, he is "very positive" about Apple's prospect for building a material smart phone business given its strong brand name, loyal customer base, unique user experience, large installed base of 58 million iPods, and what he estimates to be about 300 million iTunes users.

"Should Apple gain 1 percent share in the billion unit [cell phone] market, we believe that could amount to a $2 billion opportunity assuming around 10 million units at a $200 average selling price (similar to its current iPod), but not including potential services and accessories revenue," he wrote.

Wu notes that despite being universally panned by critics, LG's new Chocolate phone is a strong seller for Verizon, accounting for nearly 15 percent of its volume. "We view this as a positive for Apple as this indicates that the US market has some degree of market acceptance of converged cell phone-MP3 player and that a product of mediocre quality like the LG Chocolate phone can still do very well," he wrote.

Given the results of his findings on the Apple cell phone project, Wu is modeling modest contributions (about $100 million) from cell phone sales into his fiscal year 2007 outlook for the company. "We believe our cell phone assumptions are conservative given the high-end user demand for an Apple cell phone and the key point is that this is an incremental new opportunity that could help drive sales of other Apple products," he told clients.

The analyst is now modeling Apple to generate $22.2 billion in revenue and $2.60 in earnings-per-share during fiscal 2007. He also raised his price target on the iPod maker from $75 to $91.

For additional information on the Apple's cell phone initiative, please see a recent AppleInsider piece, which similarly reported that the device is nearing arrival.
post #2 of 161
One of these days Wu is going to be right.
post #3 of 161
hopefully that day is today and we'll find out sept 12. especially because my phone just got waterlogged yesterday when a friend and i threw eachother into a pool (and i'd forgotten my phone was in my pocket). whoops!
post #4 of 161
Wither Mobile OS X? Mobile spotlight, mobile Safari, mobile iCal, mobile Mail, mobile iChat?

This would be a real smartphone, if only Apple could figure out the text entry. Is the keyboard the only way?
post #5 of 161
Ijust got a Nokai N73 on a 18mont contract.. so im in no rush
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post #6 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by backtomac

One of these days Wu is going to be right.

He is, a lot more often he isn't, or than people here ever are.

But I hope that the idea of it being a smart phone is correct. that's the only way Apple might be able to take my business from my Treo 700p. Which is the best smart phone around right now.
post #7 of 161

In the article, it mentions that LG's Chocolate media phone has been panned by critics. I've yet to see these. What are the major complaints on it?

The TV ads make it look "sweet" but that's expected in a PR spin.
post #8 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by pairof9s


In the article, it mentions that LG's Chocolate media phone has been panned by critics. I've yet to see these. What are the major complaints on it?

The TV ads make it look "sweet" but that's expected in a PR spin.

It's a pretty bad phone.

For one thing, it's supposed to be a music phone. But, unless you buy the music from them, it might not play at all.
post #9 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross

He is, a lot more often he isn't, or than people here ever are.

But I hope that the idea of it being a smart phone is correct. that's the only way Apple might be able to take my business from my Treo 700p. Which is the best smart phone around right now.

Don't get me wrong Mel, I hope he is right and Apple goes with a MVNO model for service. I'll be all over it. It can't be any worse than the phone I have now.
post #10 of 161
I hope they release it this year prior to the holiday shopping season. It would generate a lot of buzz as it would be on the wishlist for millions of people.

I'm sure it will be an awesome blend of phone and iPod technology.
post #11 of 161
It's a good time to be an Apple afficionado. Here's to all those who stuck with them through the hard times.
post #12 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by backtomac

One of these days Wu is going to be right.

Actually, I'm not sure if he's ever been wrong

usually by virtue of the fact that he states the bleeding obvious.

In this case however, he seems to have some insider info. It'll be interesting to see how right/wrong he is.
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post #13 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. H

Actually, I'm not sure if he's ever been wrong

usually by virtue of the fact that he states the bleeding obvious.

In this case however, he seems to have some insider info. It'll be interesting to see how right/wrong he is.

It's the usual case of something being obvious only AFTER someone else says it.
post #14 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by pairof9s


In the article, it mentions that LG's Chocolate media phone has been panned by critics. I've yet to see these. What are the major complaints on it?

The TV ads make it look "sweet" but that's expected in a PR spin.


The phone is really slow, if you are a reasonable fast texter then it will regularly miss characters. When going through menus it presents a loading screen and quit often (with a new phone) there would be nothing in the folder. Had it for a week and got rid of it as it was shockingly bad. Went back to the sony ericssons, best phones out there (as yet).
post #15 of 161
I've been using a Nokia for years. Their menu structure is Applesque (ie. just like the iPod, iTunes, finder, etc). Seems to me that Apple has had some problems with patent infringement by using this menu structure (Creative?). I'd be willing to bet that Nokia holds a patent when it comes to such a structure on a cell-phone (but I might be wrong). I certainly know that Motorola and Samsung have terrible UI (comparing my brother's phones to mine), and so I suspect the reason is that they can't use the nice menu that Nokia has for patent reasons. Now, it's one thing for Apple to throw $100M at Creative, but Nokia will not be so easy. (Correct me if I'm wrong about cell-phone UIs.)
post #16 of 161
According to MacDailyNews:

http://macdailynews.com/index.php/we...omments/10782/

But it's back now. I'm not sure what changed. I'm not there every day.

Can anyone tell if anything has been changed?
post #17 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider

"The design will be an iPod nano-like candy bar form factor

Oh, so you've seen it, Wu?

Quote:
and come in three colors (we are not certain of the exact colors but we suspect black, white and platinum, similar to Apple's current color scheme of iPods and Macs)."

Oh, so you haven't seen it, Wu?
post #18 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by xUKHCx

The phone is really slow, if you are a reasonable fast texter then it will regularly miss characters. When going through menus it presents a loading screen and quit often (with a new phone) there would be nothing in the folder. Had it for a week and got rid of it as it was shockingly bad. Went back to the sony ericssons, best phones out there (as yet).

Yep - I played around with one at a Best Buy as I'm eligible, today in fact, to upgrade my phone at a discount. It felt cheap and the touch menu navigation SUCKED. After about 30 seconds I simply put it down and walked away, shocked at how bad it was. This is coming from someone who still has and enjoys a 3G iPod... it has its quirks but it's light-years ahead of the Chocolate... funny how it is over 3 years old!

I'm glad my Verizon contract is up in 2 months... can't wait to see what Apple may have up its sleeve
post #19 of 161
Has there been any mention of a camera or video capabilities?
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post #20 of 161
It will be a 1 button phone because Steve says people find the 10 digit keypad confusing. To operate the phone, you press the button once to dial a 1, double-press to dial 2, triple-press to dial 3, and so on. Other functions can be activated by holding down the button for a certain length of time. Hold for 1 second to access the menu, hold 2 seconds to turn the phone on or off, hold 3 seconds to activate speakerphone, hold 4 seconds to turn vibrator on or off, etc.

Next will be Apple's own line of cars with only 1 foot pedal because Steve says 3 pedals are confusing.
post #21 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by Haggar

It will be a 1 button phone because Steve says people find the 10 digit keypad confusing. To operate the phone, you press the button once to dial a 1, double-press to dial 2, triple-press to dial 3, and so on. Other functions can be activated by holding down the button for a certain length of time. Hold for 1 second to access the menu, hold 2 seconds to turn the phone on or off, hold 3 seconds to activate speakerphone, hold 4 seconds to turn vibrator on or off, etc.

Next will be Apple's own line of cars with only 1 foot pedal because Steve says 3 pedals are confusing.

I think this is a good candidate for the funniest thing I will read/hear today, and it's still not even 9:30 in the morning. I hope Steve someday realizes that people are actuall pretty good with multiple buttons. I think this is one thing that is really holding Apple back. For example, how many people would like a good "off" button on their iPod so they didn't have to sit there waiting, especially since holding play only works about half the time on my wife's Nano.
post #22 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by bdj21ya

I think this is a good candidate for the funniest thing I will read/hear today, and it's still not even 9:30 in the morning. I hope Steve someday realizes that people are actuall pretty good with multiple buttons. I think this is one thing that is really holding Apple back. For example, how many people would like a good "off" button on their iPod so they didn't have to sit there waiting, especially since holding play only works about half the time on my wife's Nano.

Funny! However it has been said that perfection is not reached at the point where you can add no more, but at the point where nothing else can be taken away.
post #23 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by pairof9s


In the article, it mentions that LG's Chocolate media phone has been panned by critics. I've yet to see these. What are the major complaints on it?

The TV ads make it look "sweet" but that's expected in a PR spin.

my girlfriend was ready to buy one just based on seeing it in the commercials. i was prone to be positive about it until i played with it. it really is a piece of junk. the front navigation dial is also not a dial. it's just lousy touch-sensitive buttons that also press. but not like the ipod's click-wheel at all. i was CONSTANTLY pressing the wrong buttons by accident. and the menu structure is just abysmal. i've never gone from expecting to like a product to actually hating it in such a short time. my girlfriend disliked it enough that she just delayed her purchasing decision for a few weeks since it was such a disappointment. plus the interface design is gaudy colorful and just ugly.
post #24 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chucker

Oh, so you've seen it, Wu?



Oh, so you haven't seen it, Wu?

He doesn't have to have seen it. all he has to have done is speak to people who know about it. That doesn't mean that they will know everything about it.
post #25 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross

He doesn't have to have seen it. all he has to have done is speak to people who know about it. That doesn't mean that they will know everything about it.

If he merely has sources, and hasn't actually seen any proof himself, why does he make it sound like this is definite, rather than just a rumor?
post #26 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chucker

If he merely has sources, and hasn't actually seen any proof himself, why does he make it sound like this is definite, rather than just a rumor?

Because his sources are better than the ones the rumors sites use. They get to talk to the executives, not the errand boy.

It's like the WSJ Intel rumor.
post #27 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by bdj21ya

I think this is a good candidate for the funniest thing I will read/hear today, and it's still not even 9:30 in the morning. I hope Steve someday realizes that people are actuall pretty good with multiple buttons. I think this is one thing that is really holding Apple back. For example, how many people would like a good "off" button on their iPod so they didn't have to sit there waiting, especially since holding play only works about half the time on my wife's Nano.

Call me crazy (pause...) but I thought about a phone with only a iPod scroll wheel. Most people don't dial somebody out of the blue. They usually have them in their contacts and choosing a contact with a scroll wheel would be as easy as choosing a playlist. Entering a new number could also be done using the wheel.

A before anyone raises the issue, 911 would be a built-in preset.
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post #28 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by sCreeD

Call me crazy (pause...) but I thought about a phone with only a iPod scroll wheel. Most people don't dial somebody out of the blue. They usually have them in their contacts and choosing a contact with a scroll wheel would be as easy as choosing a playlist. Entering a new number could also be done using the wheel.

You don't send text messages, do you?
post #29 of 161
Good timing. My T630 is dying!

And I could probably throw it in with my ADC discount, while i Buy my Merom MBP in a month..
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post #30 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by Denton

You don't send text messages, do you?

You could use the scrollwheel to select letters, numbers, etc from a matrix on the screen. Easier than those two or three button combinations on most phones.
post #31 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross

You could use the scrollwheel to select letters, numbers, etc from a matrix on the screen. Easier than those two or three button combinations on most phones.

You've never tried entering a message on a gaming console using the controller, have you?



Suffice to say, I think using an iPod scroll wheel as a "rotary dial" phone would be great... but it'd be murder for text messaging.
post #32 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross

You could use the scrollwheel to select letters, numbers, etc from a matrix on the screen. Easier than those two or three button combinations on most phones.

T9 Text dictionaries v scrolling through letters like an arcade machine circa 1978? Don't be silly.

Maybe they'll bring back the Newton text recognition for their phone.

IMHO, they can do no better than to reskin UIQ 3.1 from Sony Ericsson and a quick tidy up. They've already got experience of writing Symbian applications as that's how iSync works on Nokia Series 60 and UIQ. The chipsets for Symbian are a fraction of the power requirements of Windows Mobile and Palm.

If they base the design on American users then it'll be laughed out of Europe as a smartphone. If they base it on European design then there'll just be cries of "Can't I get a stinkin phone that just dials like a phone with no other crap on?" from America.

Then again they could just sell it on style alone like Motorola and LG do. Crap phones that are a pain to use but mighty purdy.
post #33 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by Denton

You don't send text messages, do you?

Nope, not a one.

Proud of myself about that.

If I did, I'd buy a Blackberry.
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post #34 of 161
Wu's really sticking his neck out here. If he's wrong this time, I'm changing my sig.

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post #35 of 161
This is it :





well, probably more like this :

http://www.floatingpears.com/garage/iPhone.jpg
post #36 of 161
I hope they introduce more than one model of phone.
A basic and an advanced.

Did I mention my phone contract expires on Oct 17th? : )
post #37 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by McHuman

This is it :





well, probably more like this :

http://www.floatingpears.com/garage/iPhone.jpg

Wow, this would totally OWN the Pixie demographic.
post #38 of 161
Let's hope it's not made out of the crappy, scratchy iPod Nano plastic
post #39 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinney57

Wow, this would totally OWN the Pixie demographic.

Now, that's what I call a phone!
post #40 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by McHuman

This is it :





well, probably more like this :

http://www.floatingpears.com/garage/iPhone.jpg

Little Suzy wants to know... does it come in pink?

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