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September quarter iPod shipments should meet Street estimates

post #1 of 10
Thread Starter 
After analyzing NPD market research data from the first two months of Apple Computer's September quarter, analysts for PiperJaffray believe iPod unit shipments will end the quarter close to Street expectations.

"We have analyzed the first 2 months of NPD data (July & August) for the September quarter and found that it suggests iPod units of around 7.4m," analyst Gene Munster wrote in a note to clients Monday afternoon.

"When the third month of data is released, our analysis will likely lead to a different iPod unit figure than what our analysis suggests based on the first 2 months of data, given data for the month of September will include data related to the new iPods that are now in shipment."

While Munster's iPod NPD extrapolation analysis suggests that iPod shipments through the months of July and August are tracking slightly below his plan, he thinks the recent announcement of new iPods may make it possible for Apple to hit his 8.6 million unit estimate for the quarter.

"Without a new iPod this quarter, we had expected slight downside to our estimate, as suggested by the first 2 months of NPD data," he added.

Munster maintains an "Outperform" rating on shares of Apple with a price target of $99.
post #2 of 10
I just want to know how long until the new iPod video, not just the same iPod with brighter screens and a few software enhancements. Even though it is not much of an upgrade, feature-wise, they will sell to the crowd that hasn't gotten an iPod yet or gen4 and below owners. They're so cool looking, but I predict new iPods by March.
post #3 of 10
i soooo wish this analyst guy's first name was herman or eddie... or maybe at least he's a grandpa to someone...

post #4 of 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by jbondo

i soooo wish this analyst guy's first name was herman or eddie... or maybe at least he's a grandpa to someone...


post #5 of 10
... from the German: Münster

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

 

Get the lowdown on the coming collapse:  http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45010

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

 

Get the lowdown on the coming collapse:  http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45010

Reply
post #6 of 10
Was their estimate of 7.4M for the quarter or just July and August? If that's the quarter, then that would be another slide in sales over the previous quarter. IIRC, Q2 was 8.5M, Q3 was 8.1M, so if Q4 is 7.4M then it's another decline. Still a lot better than the previous year, but the previous year had increases between quarters.
post #7 of 10
He's Uncle Fester's son.
post #8 of 10
iPod shipments....meeting expectations!? NO WAY! Who ever came up with that theory is nuts! No one likes iPods, I mean comeon have you SEEN a Sansa?
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post #9 of 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by monkeyastronaut

I just want to know how long until the new iPod video, not just the same iPod with brighter screens and a few software enhancements. Even though it is not much of an upgrade, feature-wise, they will sell to the crowd that hasn't gotten an iPod yet or gen4 and below owners. They're so cool looking, but I predict new iPods by March.

Draw some nombers on the wall, pick a dart, and close your eyes.
post #10 of 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM

Was their estimate of 7.4M for the quarter or just July and August? If that's the quarter, then that would be another slide in sales over the previous quarter. IIRC, Q2 was 8.5M, Q3 was 8.1M, so if Q4 is 7.4M then it's another decline. Still a lot better than the previous year, but the previous year had increases between quarters.

For the quarter. They don't make monthly estimates. Otherwise they would have 30 million in sales for the quarter, which would be double the last holiday season's.
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