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Overall Mac OS usage market share declining?

post #1 of 98
Thread Starter 
Apple Computer tops the news when it comes to analyzing recent operating system usage market share numbers, but one market research firm says its data indicates overall Mac OS usage has suddenly hit a slight decline.

"Mac Intel OS usage is growing quickly, and currently has 0.62 percent usage market share, but overall Mac OS usage is slightly down," Net Applications wrote in a recent newsletter. "Back in December 2005 total Mac OS usage market share was 4.35 percent, but August 2006 numbers show total Mac OS market share down to 4.33 percent."

Net Applications speculates that while the slight dip may not seem to be a cause for concern to most observers, "the fact that Mac usage was steadily growing until this year's stagnation may be indicative of larger Apple problems."

Still, it's unclear how reliable the firm's market share figures are or how it tracks operating system usage.

In the same newsletter, the firm erroneously reported that Apple's iPod unit shipments hit an all time high at 12 million units in one quarter before stumbling.

"iPod sales peaked at over 12 million units for the 4th quarter of 2005, but have stumbled to 8.5 million and 8.1 million units the most recent two quarters," the firm wrote.

iPod sales actually peaked during Apple's first fiscal quarter of 2006, in which it sold over 14 million of the players.

post #2 of 98
Geez, you dont think that the 0.02% could be attributed to the fact that people were waiting for the Mac Pro to be released so didn't buy as many powerMac G5's for a few months.

Analysts certainly eat shit, and regurgitate it.
post #3 of 98
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider


In the same newsletter, the firm erroneously reported that Apple's iPod unit shipments hit an all time high at 12 million units in one quarter before stumbling.

"iPod sales peaked at over 12 million units for the 4th quarter of 2005, but have stumbled to 8.5 million and 8.1 million units the most recent two quarters," the firm wrote.

well, that pretty much nullifies this report's credibility...
post #4 of 98
The fact that it says that XP has 85 percent marketshare makes me call bullshit.
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post #5 of 98
Laptop at an all time high...low market share...does not compute.


I've been watching Net Applications a lot lately and I don't think their monitoring is unbiased.

It's actually quite difficult to know OS usage by looking at site logs...unless you monitor all sites on the internet...which is not the case...so...ya know...these numbers mean nothing.
post #6 of 98
This article was pathetic.
Was this written by a high schooler?
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post #7 of 98
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider

Apple Computer tops the news when it comes to analyzing recent operating system usage market share numbers, but one market research firm says its data indicates overall Mac OS usage has suddenly hit a slight decline.

"Mac Intel OS usage is growing quickly, and currently has 0.62 percent usage market share, but overall Mac OS usage is slightly down," Net Applications wrote in a recent newsletter. "Back in December 2005 total Mac OS usage market share was 4.35 percent, but August 2006 numbers show total Mac OS market share down to 4.33 percent."
.

People should remember that absolute numbers of users can increase, while percentages can decrease. The number of computer users may be increasing, but let's face it - the emerging markets (e.g., China) are less likely to be Mac centric. Apple saw sales DECREASES even in established markets like Japan in the last quarter. And my guess is they'll see more declines, because PCs are relatively cheaper. Plus Apple's laptops aren't particularly attractive, even their low end, because they are MUCH HEAVIER than similarly priced PC laptops (5lbs vs. 2 or 3 lbs).
post #8 of 98
God bless the 1% of the population still using ME.
post #9 of 98
Quote:
Laptop at an all time high...low market share...does not compute.

That is an excellent point.

Also, the article seems to repeat itself a bit...

[QUOTE]"While this slight dip may not seem to be a cause for concern to most observers, the fact that Mac usage was steadily growing until this year's stagnation may be indicative of larger Apple problems," the report adds.

Net Applications speculates that while the slight dip may not seem to be a cause for concern to most observers, "the fact that Mac usage was steadily growing until this year's stagnation may be indicative of larger Apple problems."

Is it just me or are those the same word? This seems to validate the Highschooler Author.

And; If it is true, Wouldn't it make sence that there are people waiting to purchase the next haul of Intel chips? I know I personally am waiting for my Merom Macbook Pro.

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post #10 of 98
Are there any business PhDs lurking in these forums? If so could someone please explain once again why market share seems to be THE indicator of success or failure for a company? BMW has a much lower market share than GM in terms of sales yet GM is in the toilet and BMW just keeps chugging along. Why is Apple considered a complete, total failure as a company because it doesn't have the market share of Dell? As a card carrying member of the Joe Public fraternity I just don't get it.
post #11 of 98
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp

Are there any business PhDs lurking in these forums? If so could someone please explain once again why market share seems to be THE indicator of success or failure for a company? BMW has a much lower market share than GM in terms of sales yet GM is in the toilet and BMW just keeps chugging along. Why is Apple considered a complete, total failure as a company because it doesn't have the market share of Dell? As a card carrying member of the Joe Public fraternity I just don't get it.

Very simple, if stock brokers can't make money off of the company, then the company is useless to them :P
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post #12 of 98
Lets not push useful information out of our brains and replace it with this pointless crap, shall we?
post #13 of 98
Do they count the Internet traffic caused by virus-spreading and spam-zombies?
post #14 of 98
The problem is they don't give the sample set of websites that were studied.

Imagine if they studied 10 websites to formulate the study. If they include the NortonAntivirus support website and Microsoft.com, you can see immediately how it would skew the numbers to be 75% XP.

My guess is that the sites included in the study are Windows centric and not a very good indicator of market share.

I mean I could take 10 websites and use them to prove that Mac OS has a 90% marketshare. (OSX software download sites, Professional Photog sites, ect...)

So I say, publish the websites included in the study, and not make them pre-biased based on such things as Virus protection, Gamer sites, ect...
post #15 of 98
Is there a reason this must be stated twice? It's like, "Just incase you didn't get it the first time, try this."

Quote:
"While this slight dip may not seem to be a cause for concern to most observers, the fact that Mac usage was steadily growing until this year's stagnation may be indicative of larger Apple problems," the report adds.

Net Applications speculates that while the slight dip may not seem to be a cause for concern to most observers, "the fact that Mac usage was steadily growing until this year's stagnation may be indicative of larger Apple problems."
post #16 of 98
Nope, that was our editor's error. We apologize.
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post #17 of 98
I call BS. From my own personal experience, Mac is up, and PC is down. I don't know anyone who is or has dropped a Mac and gone to PC, but I certainly know plenty who have switched to Mac.
post #18 of 98
Quote:
Originally Posted by umijin

Plus Apple's laptops aren't particularly attractive, even their low end, because they are MUCH HEAVIER than similarly priced PC laptops (5lbs vs. 2 or 3 lbs).

This is completely untrue. Please find a Core Duo based laptop with 12-13" screen that weighs "2 or 3 lbs" and is available for $1000. I dare you.
post #19 of 98
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp

Are there any business PhDs lurking in these forums? If so could someone please explain once again why market share seems to be THE indicator of success or failure for a company? BMW has a much lower market share than GM in terms of sales yet GM is in the toilet and BMW just keeps chugging along. Why is Apple considered a complete, total failure as a company because it doesn't have the market share of Dell? As a card carrying member of the Joe Public fraternity I just don't get it.

This is not a cut and dried issue. This company is makes money by providing information. They don't have access to actual figures so they do some simple testing to come up with a report that they can sell. Market share is easy to measure (as long as you don't question the accuracy.)

In a market as large and complex as the computer market one should really break out the different market segments and then look at the shares of different companies in those segments.

Market share is a useful number (if it is accurate), but it does not tell the whole story. As far as evaluating investing in a company, profitability and revenue growth are more important. If sales of Apple computers stalled out or fell that would be reason for concern.
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post #20 of 98
Since the article doesn't even appear to understand the meaning of the word "market share", I don't see why it's worth discussing at all.
post #21 of 98
If you *ever* needed proof that marketing and stock pundits are talking out ther a*s, this one's it. it's simply not possible to know the "overall usage" to any degree of precision, or the Mac OS usage by segment, much less within *two decimal places.*

what crap.
post #22 of 98
Hang about, Windows 98 has a lower market share than Mac OS X? I find that extremely hard to believe. I still know plenty of people who are stuck on Win98.
post #23 of 98
Zero mention of Linux anyone? By most accounts still a larger userbase than OS X, that missing alone is a red flag of galatic proportions.
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post #24 of 98
This is BS........All of you already said what I planned to after reading it.
Actually, I don't care if i'm the only mac user in the state......I had many reasons to dump windoze and I'm not going back. There will always be idiots who will never understand. I'll not try to change them. I'll be happy eating steak while they chew their hot dogs, never realizing that there is something better.
Sooner or later they come to me complaining about their viruses, their crashes, etc.......I tell them I'm sorry, but I cannot relate.........I'll help anyone who is interested, but people got to want it.

OMG.. .02% Time to sell all my apple stock!!!!

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post #25 of 98
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp

Are there any business PhDs lurking in these forums? If so could someone please explain once again why market share seems to be THE indicator of success or failure for a company? BMW has a much lower market share than GM in terms of sales yet GM is in the toilet and BMW just keeps chugging along. Why is Apple considered a complete, total failure as a company because it doesn't have the market share of Dell? As a card carrying member of the Joe Public fraternity I just don't get it.

Even if BMW only sold 1 car every year, that 1 car could drive on pretty much any road it wanted to. It might be hard to get an oil change at Jiffy Lube however as they don't stock oil filters for the 1 BMW on the road.

Now take the car analogy and apply it to the computer industry. Because there are so few Mac users, many web developers don't hesitate to require the use of ActiveX controls or even muck up their Java! so that it only works on a PC running Internet Explorer 6 or higher. In the same way have you seen any new software released for the Amiga lately? No, because it isn't economically feasible to devote a lot of resources to a tiny potential market.

This is why you can't get AutoCad for Mac. They used to make AutoCad for the Mac but becuse the marketshare dipped so low they stopped developing it.
post #26 of 98
The graph shows that Mac OS has 3.71%, while the article talks about 4.33%. For me, this makes the article even more bogus -- unless these are actually measurements of different things, and I'm missing some detail somewhere.
post #27 of 98
Quote:
Geez, you dont think that the 0.02% could be attributed to the fact that people were waiting for the Mac Pro to be released so didn't buy as many powerMac G5's for a few months.

Add to that the fact that some people are still waiting for Adobe software to turn Universal before buying a Mac Pro.
post #28 of 98
Quote:
Originally Posted by netapplications

Use our business website tools to measure your traffic, promote, monitor, and advertise your site.

Without a detailed explanation of their methodology these #s are meaningless.

Everything I'm seeing points to Apple's marketshare slowly growing in the consumer, education and enterprise spaces.

Also Apple's iPod sales are cyclical.
They relase new ipods in the fall,
sell a lot in at christmas,
plateaus in the spring,
then dips in the summer as consumers start waiting for the new ipods in the fall.
post #29 of 98
Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Mozzarella

This is why you can't get AutoCad for Mac. They used to make AutoCad for the Mac but becuse the marketshare dipped so low they stopped developing it.

I thought they only made one major release and then abandoned it.
post #30 of 98
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigmig

This is completely untrue. Please find a Core Duo based laptop with 12-13" screen that weighs "2 or 3 lbs" and is available for $1000. I dare you.

Apple doesn't even sell a $1000 notebook. Lattitude D420 fits that for $1200, which fits "similarly priced" close enough. It is a Core Duo, 3lb, 12.1". There may be brands in Japan that offer ultralights at cheaper prices relative to Apple Japan, which I think is where the previous poster is writing from.
post #31 of 98
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider

Apple Computer tops the news when it comes to analyzing recent operating system usage market share numbers, but one market research firm says its data indicates overall Mac OS usage has suddenly hit a slight decline.

"Mac Intel OS usage is growing quickly, and currently has 0.62 percent usage market share, but overall Mac OS usage is slightly down," Net Applications wrote in a recent newsletter. "Back in December 2005 total Mac OS usage market share was 4.35 percent, but August 2006 numbers show total Mac OS market share down to 4.33 percent."

Net Applications speculates that while the slight dip may not seem to be a cause for concern to most observers, "the fact that Mac usage was steadily growing until this year's stagnation may be indicative of larger Apple problems."

Still, it's unclear how reliable the firm's market share figures are or how it tracks operating system usage.

In the same newsletter, the firm erroneously reported that Apple's iPod unit shipments hit an all time high at 12 million units in one quarter before stumbling.

"iPod sales peaked at over 12 million units for the 4th quarter of 2005, but have stumbled to 8.5 million and 8.1 million units the most recent two quarters," the firm wrote.

iPod sales actually peaked during Apple's first fiscal quarter of 2006, in which it sold over 14 million of the players.


this is just stupid.
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post #32 of 98
Quote:
Originally Posted by ulyssespdx

it's simply not possible to know the "overall usage" to any degree of precision, or the Mac OS usage by segment, much less within *two decimal places.*

WE HAVE A WINNAH
post #33 of 98
Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Mozzarella

Also Apple's iPod sales are cyclical.
They relase new ipods in the fall,
sell a lot in at christmas,
plateaus in the spring,
then dips in the summer as consumers start waiting for the new ipods in the fall.

This summer is the only time that iPod sales dipped relative to the previous quarter. Before this year, there were more iPod sales in each successive quarter than the previous quarter.
post #34 of 98
They say you can make numbers mean anything you want them to mean. So if you change the numbers constantly then you can really make it mean something else. Why did AppleInsider post this?
post #35 of 98
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM

Apple doesn't even sell a $1000 notebook. Lattitude D420 fits that for $1200, which fits "similarly priced" close enough. It is a Core Duo, 3lb, 12.1". There may be brands in Japan that offer ultralights at cheaper prices relative to Apple Japan, which I think is where the previous poster is writing from.

Sorry Jeff, but $1099 is closer to $1000 than $1200. And those 12.1" Latitudes use the ULV Core Duos, which run at 1.2 GHz and offer 30 GB hard drives. So you're comparing apples to oranges. The comparable Dell would be the Latitude D620. That is cheaper than the MacBook and there's even a model that uses a 2 GHz Core 2 Duo. But...it is bigger (14.1" screen). The "starting weight" is only 4.4 lbs but that's using a 4 cell battery. And the cheap prices you see today go up by $250 or more in two days. I'd say the MacBook is competitive and, if anything, only slightly overpriced. And it comes with a better software bundle. And it's a Mac.
post #36 of 98
I have a fairly popular site that caters to no specific platform and doesn't exclude any browser.

From my own stats, the Mac usage share has been climbing steadily for the last 2 years (since the Mac Mini was released). The lowest it ever been on my site was 3.98%. It currently stands at 5.06%; the highest I've ever seen since I started tracking browser and platform numbers.

I don't get my numbers from analysing logs. I have the data stored in the database whenever a user logs in. The number of users is about 130,000 so it's a fairly representative slice of users.

And for the person that couldn't believe the low number of windows 98 users. Their share stands at 5.01% currently.

Granted, this is a single site, but it's a large one, and platform-neutral and browser-neutral.

As far as I can tell from my own data, there can be no explanation to their numbers other than incompetence or bias.
post #37 of 98
As Mark Twain once said:

'There are three kinds of lies: Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics'.

And never a more accurate quote was made.

This article lacks any depth whatsoever to support it's main thrust - what sites were tracked? Was it world-wide or country specific? Does this also show that many people using OS X are NOT Internet connected?

There are far too many variables that will alter the outcome of statistical analysis that haven't been outlined in this article to even consider lending any credence to it at all.
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post #38 of 98
I would be curious how they acquired their data. This is important since different methods of acquisition will not give the same results. For example judging market usage by looking at traffic on Microsoft.com, Appleinsider.com and slashdot.org will not give the same results, simply because of the audience.

Statistics are nasty, since while they can tell a lot, they can also tell nothing at all :-/
post #39 of 98
Quote:
Originally Posted by theapplegenius

The fact that it says that XP has 85 percent marketshare makes me call bullshit.

agreed 100%. er, um, 85%?
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post #40 of 98
One big problem I see is that this survey does not differentiate what type of uses it is talking about. Is it talking about business uses? Is it talking about web-browsing? Is it talking about shopping? What are the specifics?

At work, I use to PC. I have to. The entire system within the company I work for is based on PC's and that is all we have available.

At home, I would NEVER use a PC. I have owned three and I don't ever see myself buying another. I'm so happy with my Mac that next year I might buy TWO more--a laptop and a desktop. Now things might change in the years to come. There might be some overriding factor that might push back to the PC world, but I can't envision it happening any time soon.

Now, if 12 percent of the laptops sold in the most recent month were Macs, as Steve Jobs said at the developer conference, that would equate to a large percent of the market usage but what are those users using OSX for and when are they using it? Are they using it at home, at work, offline, with Boot Camp and XP (and if people are only doing this I feel sorry for them: who is using these systems and when?

This report really is pretty useless and I don't think adequately addresses what has been a recent upswing in Apple laptop sales it and offers to few details into how the survey was conducted.
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