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Apple's second-gen iPod nano off to slow start?

post #1 of 77
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Citing initial channel checks, analysts at Baird U.S. Equity Research are reporting that there appears to be muted demand for Apple Computer's second-generation iPod nano so far, which could have negative implications for NAND flash pricing.

"We believe Apple did not meet its NAND flash order schedule this month," analyst Tristan Gerra wrote in a note to SanDisk investors on Monday.

"While it is difficult to assess the performance of the new nano product family as Apple retailers have been directed to not comment about the iPod's sales performance, the initial feedback we are receiving from industry sources suggests nano volumes are not as strong as in the same period a year ago, which we do not view as a surprise given the new nano offering's lack of new feature set besides higher density."

Gerra further stated that he expects the mix of the black 8GB iPod nano to represent significantly less than 50 percent of iPod maker's total iPod nano units in during the fourth calendar quarter of the year, which could hold negative implications for NAND flash pricing.

"These two dynamics lead us to believe NAND spot flash pricing could peak in October, earlier than expected," he added.

Still, it should be noted that Gerra's previous reports on Apple and its plans for the iPod nano were not particularly accurate.

In July, the analyst backed other Wall Street analysts in saying Apple's second-generation iPod nano would see an approximate 2-month delay that would prevent the players from making their way to market until some time this November.

For its part, AppleInsider was unable to confirm any such delays and maintained that Apple would ship its next-generation iPod nano during the second half of September.

On September 12, Apple introduced the metal-clad iPod nano revision and began shipping units immediately.
post #2 of 77
To be honest, I saw some of the new Nanos the other day, and I really didn't like them. They just felt too feminine, and the bright colours made them look like pre-school toys. The older Nano looked better crafted IMO.
post #3 of 77
Market saturation coming about perhaps?

It seems that everybody at work has *at least* one (if not several) small MP3 player of some kind.
post #4 of 77
Quote:
Originally Posted by the cool gut

To be honest, I saw some of the new Nanos the other day, and I really didn't like them. They just felt too feminine, and the bright colours made them look like pre-school toys. The older Nano looked better crafted IMO.

I agree, and many of my friends agree as well.

The colors are rather gaudy for most men (and a lot of women as well). I think they need to rethink their color palate.
post #5 of 77
I bought a Silver 2gig. I love it so much more than the last ones. The screen seems a bit more solid, the battery life is no competition, and I LOVE the aluminum enclosure. I waited all this time for the 2nd gen to come out for my Nike+ stuff. I could have purchased a 2gig 1st gen iPod nano for 99 from the apple store, but I chose to go with the 2nd gen because OF the new features... more battery life, cool enclosure, stronger screen, and brighter screen! I'm happy I got the 2nd gen.

I know a few people that have already bought them as well. I also feel it's much better for execise with the aluminum enclosure. I feel this nano was for everyone that doesn't have a nano or has a broken nano.

I LOVE blue in general. And I'm not a fan of the blue color they offered on the iPod nano. I kinda agree the colors are a little too pastel looking for me. But I like the looks of the black and silver ones.

 

 

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post #6 of 77
Well then what's wrong with the black or silver ones for all you he-men??
post #7 of 77
I feel like these reports come out after almost every new iPod, "new iPod off to slow start," etc. In reality, when the numbers come out at the end of the quarter, it's not usually the case.

Oh well, IMO the new Nano is a big improvement on the 1st Gen.
post #8 of 77
The new Nano may be a huge improvement in terms of make and quality, but to the public eye, there's nothing new at all about it. It looks just like the mini, which was released quite awhile ago, and offers no new features other than hard drive space and battery life, which are good but not exciting.

If Apple really wanted to make a splash with this, they would have come up with a new design and picked some new colors -- as it is, it just seems like "been there, done that," especially when having an iPod is already old hat.
post #9 of 77
I think the new nano is a huge improvement. I was planning on getting one until they dropped prices on the iPod with video.

I wonder if nano sales are a bit lower just because more people are going with the pricier ones instead? And don't forget, Apple just did a big promotion for students that just ended, along with discontinuing EDU pricing on iPods.
post #10 of 77
The color palette is nearly identical to the original mini lineup, which was a runaway hit for Apple.

So now after a brief period of black and white, highly scratchable plastic enclosures, these colors are "too feminine"? Wow, that whole male anxiety thing is a moving target, ain't it?

I think the new Nanos are incredibly appealing, given their larger capacity, robust enclosures, brighter screens, improved battery life and added navigation niceties. It's hard to imagine that any of this would negatively impact sales.

My only complaint is that I would like to have silver and black in whatever model I'd like. If sales data suggests that that feeling is wide-spread, Apple can easily address this-- like, overnight.
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post #11 of 77
This makes no sense... higher prices? It would seem to be that if Apple's order drops lower than expected their would be SURPLUS NAND flash. surplus = liquidation = lower prices? no?

I guess the lower production could cause a higher cost of production per product?
post #12 of 77
Quote:
Originally Posted by mike12309

This makes no sense... higher prices? It would seem to be that if Apple's order drops lower than expected their would be SURPLUS NAND flash. surplus = liquidation = lower prices? no?

I guess the lower production could cause a higher cost of production per product?

Apple contracts for huge amounts of NAND storage in order to get the lowest possible price. If their orders fall below contract levels it triggers price increases.
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post #13 of 77
Higher prices probably means that apple has a contract that specifies a discount based on how much they buy. The bigger the quantity, the lower the price.

Although I don't have much faith in this analyist.
post #14 of 77
Seriously... "too colorful?"

Why don't you go buy a brown Zune then?

Real men buy pink iPods

... or 80 Gig ones...

-Clive
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post #15 of 77
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thataboy

I agree, and many of my friends agree as well.

The colors are rather gaudy for most men (and a lot of women as well). I think they need to rethink their color palate.

That's exactly it. I saw them in a store the other day and didn't like any of the colors, so thought I'd get the black, but it was too expensive.

It's like when you go to a community centre, and all the walls are painted these awful gaudy colors, because they had to buy the cheap paint.
post #16 of 77
I haven't read the article yet, but I believe it's probably got off to a slow start because places are selling the old models off cheap, that and the fact that in the UK at least they was still advertising the old nano in the advert with all the album art building a city.
They've since changed the iTunes ad to the Bob Dylan one, which doesn't show the new iPod.

also

There's like a 10er difference over here between the 8GB Black Nano and the 30GB iPod 5G. So if I want a 8GB one I might as well get the video one.
post #17 of 77
I would bet that apple is still moving more Nano's than its top 3 competitors combined.

And I'm not sure how much more masculine you can get than black and silver. Maybe the should have a shade called "Youthful Testosterone Blue" ? or just name a color "Manly" and be done with it.

Bought a 8 gb to run with and use the Nike + and I'm very pleased.

I think when Nike introduces its 2nd gen accessories and the Holiday season kicks in to full gear sales will pick up.

I do think Apple made a big mistake in not getting the 2nd gen nano out in time for back to school, though Apple made sure it was widely available day one.

I wonder if the iTunes 7 problems are having an effect on sales. Or put differently, if iTunes 7 was a flawless, smash hit, would they sell more?
post #18 of 77
- 1st gen iPod nanos: too weak enclosure, too black + white, too scratch prone. TOO.

- 2nd gen iPod nanos, battery + functionality improved, colourful, aluminum-enclosed, more scratch resistant ipod nanos: too colourful, too aluminum, too feminine ( ). TOO.

- 3 months without new products: too slow, too un-innovating, too what's-the-heck-I'm-in-panic-without-new-products-I'm-lost-oh-my-God-stocks-are-falling-down-analyst (real gods on earth)-predicting-dark-future.......... TOO.

- iPhone: IT'SARRIVINGIT'SARRIVINGIT'SARRIVINGJUSTNOWIT'S it's.... ehm.... it.... TOO.

....and sooo many other examples.

So I jump back to the title: when we'll be REALLY happy?
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post #19 of 77
This kind of article sounds so familiar, I had to dig up AppleInsider's previous article when the first generation ipod nano's went on sale. Here's their September 2005 on the very same subject: http://www.appleinsider.com/article.php?id=1270

Evan
post #20 of 77
Quote:
Originally Posted by evansls

This kind of article sounds so familiar, I had to dig up AppleInsider's previous article when the first generation ipod nano's went on sale. Here's their September 2005 on the very same subject: http://www.appleinsider.com/article.php?id=1270

Evan

they sold a million in the first 17 days of it being avaliable, th first gen that is. i wouldnt call that slow.
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post #21 of 77
Quote:
Originally Posted by evansls

This kind of article sounds so familiar, I had to dig up AppleInsider's previous article when the first generation ipod nano's went on sale. Here's their September 2005 on the very same subject: http://www.appleinsider.com/article.php?id=1270

Evan

And that proved to be totally wrong. That Nano turned out to be the best selling iPod!
post #22 of 77
The new nanos correct everything that was wrong with the 1st gen nanos and add the color that made the minis a hit.

The rest of the world isn't quite as rabid about Steve Jobs every bowel movement.
Of course we know the Apple has new nanos but the average person won't until a friend gets one.

As soon as the holidays roll around and people start thinking about Christmas presents and start visiting the mall....sales will pick up.
post #23 of 77
Quote:
Originally Posted by fabsgwu

And that proved to be totally wrong. That Nano turned out to be the best selling iPod!

yes, but in the meantime these analysts manage to depress share performance by 3-4% with fancy prediction. Guess if some of them are shortselling?
post #24 of 77
Quote:
Originally Posted by UrbanVoyeur

Maybe they should have a shade called "Youthful Testosterone Blue" ? or just name a color "Manly" and be done with it.

Call it the "Irish Spring" iPod.
Manly, yes!
But I like it tooo.
post #25 of 77
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clive At Five

Seriously... "too colorful?"

Why don't you go buy a brown Zune then?

Real men buy pink iPods

... or 80 Gig ones...

-Clive

Well you have to remember that the Black is the most expensive one so I don't know how much that counts. But we'll see how they do. I didn't say they were going to fail or anything, I just thought they were too girly for my taste.
post #26 of 77
Blue is actually nice. Think of it as the "Bahamian blue".
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post #27 of 77
I like the new nanos. I think it's too early to pass judgement on them.

If apple dropped the ball anywhere it was in the colours and capacities. For example: I want an 8gb silver one, can't get it. My girlfriend wants an 8gb pink one, can't get it.

I own a last gen mini, without the colour+size I want there is no reason to upgrade. My girl has an old pink mini 4gb, the new nano is...guess what 4gb.

Why would anyone bother upgrading if the capacities are the exact same as the old minis like 2 years later?

The colour scale should have broken down like this:

2gb silver
4gb blue, green, black
8gb blue, green, black, silver, pink

The highest capacities are technically the only new models, anyone "upgrading" already owns a 2-4 gb machine.

So the 8gb one should be the most highly promoted in colours.
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post #28 of 77
Does AI have archives? I'm almost positive there was a very similar "iPod nano sales off to slow start?" article at this time last year.

Ahh, yes, here it is: http://www.appleinsider.com/article.php?id=1270

Edit - added the old story.
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post #29 of 77
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flounder

Does AI have archives? I'm almost positive there was a very similar "iPod nano sales off to slow start?" article at this time last year.

well they were wrong lol.
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post #30 of 77
Quote:
Originally Posted by Luca Boccaccini

- 1st gen iPod nanos: too weak enclosure, too black + white, too scratch prone. TOO.

Who said the enclosure was weak?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ecking

The colour scale should have broken down like this:

2gb silver
4gb blue, green, black
8gb blue, green, black, silver, pink

So the 8gb one should be the most highly promoted in colours.

In terms of the BOM costs, the margins on the 8GB models is considerably less than the other models. I think your suggestion might offend the pink owners because the people that buy that color generally (though not always) don't care about having huge capacity.
post #31 of 77
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM

Who said the enclosure was weak?

Probably all the people who ended up with cracked screens.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ecking

If apple dropped the ball anywhere it was in the colours and capacities. For example: I want an 8gb silver one, can't get it. My girlfriend wants an 8gb pink one, can't get it.

If there's enough demand for different color/capacity combos, apple can easily adjust. And I doubt there are many mini owners who are already looking to upgrade, especially to a nano. Most nano buyers are probably first time buyers, people with older iPods, or even larger iPod owners looking for a second unit.

Whenever an iPod comes out, people complain that it's not enough of an improvement to justify replacing the one they just bought. Well, that's not the point. iPod owners are generally not going to upgrade until theirs wears out or a decent amount of time has passed.
post #32 of 77
I agree the colors are weak.
I'd like to see the following colors in the Aluminum...
Midnight blue
Sunset Orange
Charcoal Silver
Sage green
Pink... for the real men... lol

The colors are too bright. I'd like to see something a little more natural looking. Something that blends into your clothing, and doesn't scream "HEY LOOK... I'M WEARING AN IPOD'.

That could be where M$ is going with the Brown Zune, however, they should have picked up a Pantone book first and picked a nice brown, not 'my dog has diarrhea brown'. good god.

If they had put a radio in the Nano, it would be the hottest ticket item right now... but Apple didn't, and i'm reminded of how Apple ALWAYS does these things to hurt themselves, out of some sort of masochist neurosis; like the single button mouse, not letting developers have more source code (which took Apple from 80+ market share to 4). Then limiting the Airport Express to only work with iTunes... no wonder if flopped).

I was talking to a a few sales people at Future shop, and they said the number 1 request for MP3 players, is radio. And those who buy iPod's, are hesitant because of the no radio feature.

Which speaks to me that the market share Apple is not getting, is largly due to not having radio.
If you look, almost all of the other players on the market have radio.

The radio add-on is BS. People want it all in one easy to use package.
post #33 of 77
The nano looks too much like the minis. I feel like they did a step backward in design. Features are ok but not the design. For me at least...
post #34 of 77
People people people! The Mini was unbelievably popular, because of its colours. In fact, many people were concerned with the release of the old nano because it didn't come in colours.

I don't get how silver or black could be too garish or feminine. The fact that some of the colours are more feminine is a good thing, because last I checked approximately 50% of the world's population are women.

And as others have linked to, these "xx is off to a slow start" aren't always that accurate.
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post #35 of 77
I had ordered a new Shuffle but cancelled the order and bought a silver nano this weekend. Target had all of the colors in stock. The only one that appealed to me at all other than silver was green but like the blue and pink, it's too bright. I think subtle color tints would be more appealing than bright.

This is my third iPod and my first that's not full-size. The nano is amazingly small and, as a music player, every bit as nice as the full-size iPods; except of course for it's storage capacity. No wonder it's the most popular player in the world. I expect Apple will sell another boat load of them for Christmas, no problem.
post #36 of 77
i think people who bought ipod mini's werw idiots. they had a quater of the capacity, not that much smaller that the white ipod and they costed about the same.
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post #37 of 77
Quote:
Originally Posted by rain

Which speaks to me that the market share Apple is not getting, is largly due to not having radio.
If you look, almost all of the other players on the market have radio.

The radio add-on is BS. People want it all in one easy to use package.

I agree that Apple's flash-based iPods should have a radio. The HDD ones, not so much, because if you've got your whole, large, personally selected music collection with you, why would you let someone else choose the music you listen to?

Apple say that they don't add radio because hardly anyone "asks for it". Is the average consumer really going to go to Apple's website or to one of their stores and say "hey, you should really add radio to the iPod" and then hang around for months on end waiting to see if one gets added, or do they just go and get a different player with a built-in radio?
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post #38 of 77
Quote:
Originally Posted by mbaynham

not that much smaller that the white ipod.

Wrong.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mbaynham

and they costed about the same.

Wrong.

And, do not under-estimate the power of colour! Minis were very popular with women and I expect these new Nanos will be too.
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post #39 of 77
In my area, FM radio is really, really bad; lousy music and lots of obnoxious ads. If iPods had radio built in, I'd never ever use it, so I'd rather not pay for it in terms of cost, size and weight.
post #40 of 77
Quote:
Originally Posted by iDave

so I'd rather not pay for it in terms of cost, size and weight.

The thing is, that all of those are actually negligible. The chips are insanely small (and therefore light), and insanely cheap (a few cents).
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