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Apple seen delivering "strong" September quarter

post #1 of 13
Thread Starter 
Apple Computer, which reports its September quarter results next Wednesday, is likely to report results at the upper end, if not exceed its guidance of $4.5 to $4.6 billion in revenue and 46 cents to 48 cents earnings-per-share, according to one Wall Street analyst.

"We are modeling continued strength in its Mac business (up 6 percent Q/Q to 1.4 million units) driven by MacBook and a rebound in its iPod business (up 5 percent Q/Q to 8.5 million units) helped by new nanos and initial shipments of its new shuffle," American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu wrote in a note to investors on Monday.

Wu believes Apple will once again guide analysts conservatively for its December quarter, setting reasonable expectations that it can meet or exceed.

"For revenue, we believe Apple will likely guide to $5.7 - 6.1 billion (we are at the upper-end at $6.0 billion), up 25-31 percent Q/Q, fueled by continued Mac strength and a continued strong rebound in its iPod business," he wrote. "As usual, we find consensus out-quarter revenue estimates unreasonably aggressive -- this time at $6.5 billion."

While Apple has made material progress in its options investigation, Wu noted that its yet-to-be disclosed non-cash charges still need to be signed off by its auditor, KPMG. "Given the recent timing, we believe there is a fair likelihood that Apple will disclose limited financials," he explained. "Should Apple give out full financials, we believe this would be viewed a positive."

In his note to investors, the analyst also predicted that there may be a "soft reset" in Apple's share price during the December quarter. However, he maintains a "Buy" rating on shares of the company and reiterates that investors should take advantage of any such weakness and "aggressively buy" Apple shares in the high $60 range.
post #2 of 13
Last quarter Wu was way off, predicting doom and gloom as usual. Apple blew his ass away.
post #3 of 13
Ah, Wu. Long time no see. 8)
post #4 of 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by McHuman

Last quarter Wu was way off, predicting doom and gloom as usual. Apple blew his ass away.

Warren Buffet has said on many occasions to not buy stock in a company whose business you do not understand. Seems like common sense to me. WHY do people rely on self-styled analysts to make stock purchase decisions? Right or wrong analysts always seem to have a way out of their predictions, a C.Y.A retreat path if you will. Are they really any better than your local palm reader, astrologer, or chimpanzee throwing darts at random ? It seems most people are incapable of making their own decisions and are looking for someone to tell them what to do. Of course if something goes wrong then they have someone to blame/sue instead of themselves. "C'est le goddamn vie" as an old classmate of mine used to say.
post #5 of 13
"Soft reset"

Nice term. These guys are masters at saying nothing even when they're quoted for the public. Meaningless doublespeak jargon.

"There *may* be a soft reset." - Way to put it all on the line Mr. Analyst. Took guts to make a call like that. Your clients must feel all warm and fuzzy with that kind of confidence from their analyst.
Emailing video from iPhone to Apple TV , sort of..
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Emailing video from iPhone to Apple TV , sort of..
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post #6 of 13
The #1 AAPL analyst is Gene Munster. He "gets it". But the truth is that most analysts do little more than read AI and think secret.
post #7 of 13
Is he naming quarters after quark particles now?
post #8 of 13
Shaw Wu needs to get a clue.

1. Rebound? To date, in which quarter did iPod sales drop again?

2. " ...helped by initial shipments of its new shuffle"? At what time in the September quarter did shuffles start shipping?

3. 1.4 million Macs? Did his "analysis" really lead him to believe that the Back-to-school September quarter is only going to generate 70,000 more Mac sales than the prior June quarter which shipped 1.32 million Macs?

4. Soft reset? The guy sets a price target of $91, and then recommends accumulating after a soft reset brings the price to the upper 60's? It's as if he is saying, "it's gonna go to $91, but it's too expensive at $74.

This guy is such a moron.
post #9 of 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by solsun

Shaw Wu needs to get a clue.

1. Rebound? To date, in which quarter did iPod sales drop again?

3Q06 sales was about 500,000 units lower than 2Q06.
post #10 of 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM

3Q06 sales was about 500,000 units lower than 2Q06.

Umm, no, that's not called a drop in sales... Because of seasonality, Wall Street measures sales growth by year-over-year numbers, not from quarter to quarter... And to date, there has not been a year over year drop in iPod sales.
post #11 of 13
Agreed. The only people crying about an iPod sales drop were the ones who just don't understand sales cycles or the markets. Much hand-wringing and FUD about nothing.
My brain is hung like a HORSE!
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post #12 of 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by solsun

Shaw Wu needs to get a clue.

1. Rebound? To date, in which quarter did iPod sales drop again?

2. " ...helped by initial shipments of its new shuffle"? At what time in the September quarter did shuffles start shipping?

3. 1.4 million Macs? Did his "analysis" really lead him to believe that the Back-to-school September quarter is only going to generate 70,000 more Mac sales than the prior June quarter which shipped 1.32 million Macs?

4. Soft reset? The guy sets a price target of $91, and then recommends accumulating after a soft reset brings the price to the upper 60's? It's as if he is saying, "it's gonna go to $91, but it's too expensive at $74.

This guy is such a moron.

No I'm..*ahem*. er.. *soft gravely voice*..No he's not! He's, He's BRILLIANT I say! A, uh, Complete Genius! Master of predictions!
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post #13 of 13
Actually I agree with him for once. Anyone who buys Apple in the high 60's will make a ton of money a year from now. He hopes this report will drive the price down in December after we see a big uptick in two weeks when results will blow everyone away.
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