White House political strategist Karl Rove yesterday confidently predicted that the Republican Party would hold the House and the Senate in next month's elections, dismissing fallout from the sex scandal involving former Rep. Mark Foley.
Early in this campaign cycle, Mr. Rove said the White House compiled a list of 80 Republican incumbents who might face difficulty. From there, top strategists made sure "that they all had a campaign plan, that they all knew that they had a risk, that they all went out there and raised a bundle of money, and that they had a plan that was measurable."
"As a result, that's done a lot to get people prepared," he said.
And, in some ways, the campaign is just beginning, Mr. Rove added.
"For most Americans, particularly the marginal voters who are going to determine the outcome of the election, it started a couple weeks ago," he said. "Between now and the election, we will spend $100 million in target House and Senate races in the next 21 days."
Now first of all I want it made clear that this has been my prediction all along. I'll appropriately gloat or eat crow when the time comes. (Including a nice gentlemanly bet with BRussell)
I'll state why I believe what I do. A good chunk of it is pure opinion and thus there isn't really a way to prove or disprove it. I just know certain instincts have served me very well over the years. Perhaps this thread will prevent a few of you from harming yourselves on the day after the election. You are given permission to believe me deluded. Just be ready to explain yourself if and when I end up right.
1) It's the economy stupid. Some people vote party. Some people vote single issue. A whole hell of a lot of people vote pocketbook and could really give a damn until something hits them there. The DOW is hitting new highs and is fattening up the nearly 50% of households that own stock. Housing has slowed enough that people probably won't use theirs as an ATM anymore, but haven't seen large declines in their value (yet, I'm predicting that for 2007.) Gas has come back down to reasonable levels and inflation is being controlled.
2) The media is liberal and has a herd mentality on top of that. The lack of reporting of good news might make someone bad mouth a policy or person, but I don't think it will drive someone to a different vote in the booth. I work in a blue field within a blue state. People make obligatory remarks about certain topics. I haven't seen teachers begging for extra-duty, carpooling or even complaining about any topic in a fashion that would drive them to vote enthusiastically or in any sort of larger than normal turnout.
3) Polling - Clearly phone polling is broken. I don't say this because I think they are pointing Republican or Democratic. I say this because the results from different pollsters within the same week on the same race are wildly different. There are a number of reasons for this. It seems many pollsters are running their polls for longer timeframes in order to get enough respondents. I see many more polls conducted over three or four days now than I remember in the past.
We've also seen the actual polls themselves become less reliable predictors during the last few elections. So much so that conspiracy theories (Diebold must die!) abound as to the cause of their error. I think this will be the election where their reliability, along with media bias proves they are outright broken.
As a sidenote, I always find it a bit humorous when reality is questioned, and the predictions are not.
I don't have a study I can point to that will declare phone polling broken. I've read accounts about phone polling and they usually attempt to declare that the weighing of polls with regard to youth are broken because of cell phone use and thus the polls are likely to be off. However I don't see cell phone use, and abandonment of landlines as a youth exclusive trend. A lot of self-employed folks I know use cell phones exclusively. Among my male friends there is not a single one who either has a land line or who would ever answer it if they do have one. (It's for the wives and teens and there is a humorous cell company commercial reflecting this sentiment out now)
Those are my thoughts, you are welcome to add your own.
Nick
Early in this campaign cycle, Mr. Rove said the White House compiled a list of 80 Republican incumbents who might face difficulty. From there, top strategists made sure "that they all had a campaign plan, that they all knew that they had a risk, that they all went out there and raised a bundle of money, and that they had a plan that was measurable."
"As a result, that's done a lot to get people prepared," he said.
And, in some ways, the campaign is just beginning, Mr. Rove added.
"For most Americans, particularly the marginal voters who are going to determine the outcome of the election, it started a couple weeks ago," he said. "Between now and the election, we will spend $100 million in target House and Senate races in the next 21 days."
Now first of all I want it made clear that this has been my prediction all along. I'll appropriately gloat or eat crow when the time comes. (Including a nice gentlemanly bet with BRussell)
I'll state why I believe what I do. A good chunk of it is pure opinion and thus there isn't really a way to prove or disprove it. I just know certain instincts have served me very well over the years. Perhaps this thread will prevent a few of you from harming yourselves on the day after the election. You are given permission to believe me deluded. Just be ready to explain yourself if and when I end up right.
1) It's the economy stupid. Some people vote party. Some people vote single issue. A whole hell of a lot of people vote pocketbook and could really give a damn until something hits them there. The DOW is hitting new highs and is fattening up the nearly 50% of households that own stock. Housing has slowed enough that people probably won't use theirs as an ATM anymore, but haven't seen large declines in their value (yet, I'm predicting that for 2007.) Gas has come back down to reasonable levels and inflation is being controlled.
2) The media is liberal and has a herd mentality on top of that. The lack of reporting of good news might make someone bad mouth a policy or person, but I don't think it will drive someone to a different vote in the booth. I work in a blue field within a blue state. People make obligatory remarks about certain topics. I haven't seen teachers begging for extra-duty, carpooling or even complaining about any topic in a fashion that would drive them to vote enthusiastically or in any sort of larger than normal turnout.
3) Polling - Clearly phone polling is broken. I don't say this because I think they are pointing Republican or Democratic. I say this because the results from different pollsters within the same week on the same race are wildly different. There are a number of reasons for this. It seems many pollsters are running their polls for longer timeframes in order to get enough respondents. I see many more polls conducted over three or four days now than I remember in the past.
We've also seen the actual polls themselves become less reliable predictors during the last few elections. So much so that conspiracy theories (Diebold must die!) abound as to the cause of their error. I think this will be the election where their reliability, along with media bias proves they are outright broken.
As a sidenote, I always find it a bit humorous when reality is questioned, and the predictions are not.
I don't have a study I can point to that will declare phone polling broken. I've read accounts about phone polling and they usually attempt to declare that the weighing of polls with regard to youth are broken because of cell phone use and thus the polls are likely to be off. However I don't see cell phone use, and abandonment of landlines as a youth exclusive trend. A lot of self-employed folks I know use cell phones exclusively. Among my male friends there is not a single one who either has a land line or who would ever answer it if they do have one. (It's for the wives and teens and there is a humorous cell company commercial reflecting this sentiment out now)
Those are my thoughts, you are welcome to add your own.
Nick
"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell
"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell
I've not eluded to ESP and I think I tossed enough disclaimers out there to choke a horse about this being more than a gut check.
Think about the fun you can have claiming $100 for Kiva.org if I'm wrong.
