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Adobe's CS3 seen driving new Mac sales in 2007

post #1 of 67
Thread Starter 
The release of Adobe's Creative Suite 3.0 professional software package next year will be a catalyst for new sales of Apple Computer's Intel-based Macintosh computers, according to one Wall Street analyst.

PiperJaffray senior research analyst Gene Munster recently spoke with 50 Adobe customers and found that 24 percent expect to buy a new Mac within two quarters of the release of Adobe's CS3. Due by April of 2007, CS3 will represent the first version of the creative software bundle that is fully optimized for Apple's Intel-based Macs.

"The bottom line is that there is significant pent-up demand for Intel-based Macs among the Adobe creative pro community," Munster wrote in a research note. "Adobe creative pro customers cannot run their Adobe apps at full effiency on an Intel-based Mac until CS3 is released, so many are waiting until that time to upgrade their machines."

Of the 50 Adobe users the analyst spoke with, 10 percent said they have already upgraded to an Intel Mac and another 24 percent indicated that they expect to upgrade within 2 quarters following the release of CS3.

According to Munster, Adobe maintains a creative pro customer base of approximately 3 million users. With 10 percent having upgraded to a new Mac within the last 2 quarters, he assumes for analytical purposes that approximately 300,000 (150,000/quarter) Adobe creative pros already own Intel-based Macs.

"If we assume that our forward estimates are also based on 150,000/quarter Macs that are sold to Adobe's creative pro customer base, we would come to a figure of 600k Macs sold to Adobe creative pros by the time CS3 ships in April of 2007," he wrote.

"This leaves us with 2.4 million Adobe creative pro customers that are yet to move to a new Mac. If 24 percent of these customers upgrades to a new Mac within the first 2 quarters following CS3 release (Jun-07 & Sep-07 quarters), we can expect 288,000 Macs sold to Adobe creative pros in each of those 2 quarters."

Munster noted that the aforementioned model would yield about 138,000 more Mac sales per quarter than he had been anticipating based on estimates of 150,000 Macs per quarter. Those additional unites would add 7 percent or 4 cents to his earnings-per-share estimate for both the June 2007 and September 2007 quarters, he said.

The analyst maintained his "outperform" rating on shares of Apple with a price target of $99.
post #2 of 67
In other news, officials at weather.com are predicting that the coming rains will likely dampen grass. Scientists at NASA have backed this assertion, saying that there is historical evidence to back this claim, though the official position of the White House remains in a "wait and see" mode.

Though in all seriousness, I have to call silly buggers on their numbers; I would guess that only a percentage of the "creative pros" only own one computer, and likely many have purchased a laptop in that ten percent further planning a desktop when CS3 hits the market; if not more than one.
post #3 of 67
I am one of those who is waiting for CS3.
I am also hoping that a less expensive version of a "tower", "headless Mac" becomes available.
I don't need the power of a Mac Pro, but I do want to separate my system unit from my display.
While the 24-inch iMac is great (I own one), I want a machine with more expansion/upgrade possibilities than the iMac.

,dave
post #4 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChevalierMalFet

In other news, officials at weather.com are predicting that the coming rains will likely dampen grass. Scientists at NASA have backed this assertion, saying that there is historical evidence to back this claim, though the official position of the White House remains in a "wait and see" mode.

I couldn't have said it better myself. These "PiparJaffrey" people get paid to state the obvious. Why would anyone by an Intel Mac if they have to run Rosetta just to get their apps to work. DUH!

In other news, I do hear the CS3 will kick serious butt! It will incorporate Flash. Will it be able to run on PowerPC Macs?
post #5 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by davebarnes

I am one of those who is waiting for CS3.
I am also hoping that a less expensive version of a "tower", "headless Mac" becomes available.
I don't need the power of a Mac Pro, but I do want to separate my system unit from my display.
While the 24-inch iMac is great (I own one), I want a machine with more expansion/upgrade possibilities than the iMac.

,dave

Yawn. Get over it dude, its not going to happen.
post #6 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChevalierMalFet

In other news, officials at weather.com are predicting that the coming rains will likely dampen grass. Scientists at NASA have backed this assertion, saying that there is historical evidence to back this claim, though the official position of the White House remains in a "wait and see" mode.

Though in all seriousness, I have to call silly buggers on their numbers; I would guess that only a percentage of the "creative pros" only own one computer, and likely many have purchased a laptop in that ten percent further planning a desktop when CS3 hits the market; if not more than one.

this one made me laugh out loud (at work). When I first heard about the new Intel in a Mac, I was stoked. Then, I heard about the delay of Adobe CS bundle for Intel Macs... I figured "oh, they'll just delay the mac pro a little longer".. nope, I guess there's a huge nitch of other creative pro's like Final Cut Pro / 3d rendering.

What's funny is, I wasn't expecting a positive approach article like this. I was expecting something more obvious like "Mac Pro lowest selling Apple merchandise...Analysts say that Apple has dropped the ball".

Honestly, by the time Adobe CS3 is launched, aren't we suppose to see Dual-Quadcore (Octo) machines?
post #7 of 67
I don't put much stock into this report. First of all you can come out with those numbers simply based on talking to 50 people. Secondly they said the same thing about the OS X and Photoshop. After Adobe came out with a OS X version sales did not pick up much. What will drive Mac sales will be the ability to run Windows and Mac at the same time.
post #8 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by g5man

I don't put much stock into this report. First of all you can come out with those numbers simply based on talking to 50 people. Secondly they said the same thing about the OS X and Photoshop. After Adobe came out with a OS X version sales did not pick up much. What will drive Mac sales will be the ability to run Windows and Mac at the same time.

I'm going off a bit on the rabbit trail with this but... I think this will blow bootcamp out of the water if it keeps up the progress

CrossOver Mac
http://www.codeweavers.com/products/cxmac/
post #9 of 67
i feel like the folks at Piper Jaffrey are just Apple fanboys.
post #10 of 67
I can't believe it's taken Adobe so long to change processors. They must have unneccesarily decided to change IDE at the same time.
post #11 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by ascii

I can't believe it's taken Adobe so long to change processors. They must have unneccesarily decided to change IDE at the same time.

Well, CodeWarrior doesn't let you create x86 Mach-O binaries.
post #12 of 67
I'm a pro user I guess.
I upgraded and am content with the performance of all the adobe CS2 apps with a huge exception, Illustrator. It crashes so frequently that I'm keeping my old G5 around just to use illustrator on. I can't wait to get my hands on CS3.

flick.
post #13 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by JustBrady

I couldn't have said it better myself. These "PiparJaffrey" people get paid to state the obvious. Why would anyone by an Intel Mac if they have to run Rosetta just to get their apps to work. DUH!

In other news, I do hear the CS3 will kick serious butt! It will incorporate Flash. Will it be able to run on PowerPC Macs?

The other programs in the suite work well enough under Rosetta, and there are other apps that Creative using pro's use.

Performance under Rosetta has been getting better as well, as you would know if you bothered to check.

Most images are still under 30 MB. With smaller images like that, and 2GB RAM, or more, Rosetta is just fine.
post #14 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by JustBrady

It will incorporate Flash. Will it be able to run on PowerPC Macs?

Yes, it will.
post #15 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by g5man

I don't put much stock into this report. First of all you can come out with those numbers simply based on talking to 50 people. Secondly they said the same thing about the OS X and Photoshop. After Adobe came out with a OS X version sales did not pick up much. What will drive Mac sales will be the ability to run Windows and Mac at the same time.

Can you show that?
post #16 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flick Justice

I'm a pro user I guess.
I upgraded and am content with the performance of all the adobe CS2 apps with a huge exception, Illustrator. It crashes so frequently that I'm keeping my old G5 around just to use illustrator on. I can't wait to get my hands on CS3.

flick.

You should check that out. Illustrator is running fine for many people.
post #17 of 67
This story (whatever it's level of truthiness) illustrates the over-reliance of Apple on Adobe. They need to work on a trial separation and Apple needs to get rid of the perception they are wholly at the mercy of Adobe's progress. Apple continues to be in a very weak power position.

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post #18 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross

You should check that out. Illustrator is running fine for many people.

Really? odd.. I guess I reinstall...

I have read other people haveing the same issue so I just assumed it was the Intel.. I'm sorry computer.
flick.
post #19 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by g5man

I don't put much stock into this report. First of all you can come out with those numbers simply based on talking to 50 people. Secondly they said the same thing about the OS X and Photoshop. After Adobe came out with a OS X version sales did not pick up much. What will drive Mac sales will be the ability to run Windows and Mac at the same time.

Using rules of statistics, I can tell you that with 50 people that he's correct to within 5.5% with 95% confidence. That means 19 out of 20 times, 4.5% - 15.5% is almost certain. yeah, it's a pretty wide range, but not the worst I've seen.

-Clive
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post #20 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

This story (whatever it's level of truthiness) illustrates the over-reliance of Apple on Adobe. They need to work on a trial separation and Apple needs to get rid of the perception they are wholly at the mercy of Adobe's progress. Apple continues to be in a very weak power position.

I think that's what they're trying to do with Final Cut, Apeture, etc.

-Clive
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post #21 of 67
Adobe waiting this long is just a cynical ploy to get everyone on intel macs to have to pay full pop for CS3 instead of just downloading an update, which is what they should have done.

People can call it good business, or whatever you want, I think it's a bastard of a move. When companies charge hundreds of dollars for their software, then fail to provide support for their product for this long, they're real pricks . No wonder so many people with photoshop didn't pay for it...

At what point in the past 50 years did consumers give up all of their power to companies? In the 50's, we expected products to work, and we expected excellent service on them. Now we pay a ton of money for a DVD that costs next to nothing to produce (OK, they have development costs, but still...), and we just accept it when the company provides us with an inferior product/service.

This surely signals the coming apocalypse... IT'S IN REVELATIONS PEOPLE!!1
post #22 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clive At Five

I think that's what they're trying to do with Final Cut, Apeture, etc.

-Clive

It's a shame Apple has no viable alternatives to Photoshop and Illustrator. \

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post #23 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

It's a shame Apple has no viable alternatives to Photoshop and Illustrator. \

I totally agreee. I don't like not having a choice...
I wonder if this makes apple nervous, I mean if adobe decides not to make CS4 for some reason.. apple would loose a lot of folks.

flick.
post #24 of 67
I just hope it comes out on time. And not late.
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post #25 of 67
Does that user base figure refer to 3 million Mac users or just 3 million users on both Windows and Mac?
post #26 of 67
I'm waiting to get a new MacBook Pro when CS3 is out. If Leopard isn't out by then I'll probably wait for that, too. And if sites like this start reporting Apple will change the chipset to allow for a full 4gig of RAM I'll wait for that, too. Based on the rumors, at least the first two should be available in time for my birthday in July!
post #27 of 67
According to the latest official figures, 43% of all statistics are totally worthless.

However, I agree that Mac sales will increase when CS3 is released.
post #28 of 67
Checked Adobe's web site and noticed that only the $449 Professional version of Acrobat 8 is available for Mac. The $299 Standard version is Windows only.
post #29 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Haggar

Checked Adobe's web site and noticed that only the $449 Professional version of Acrobat 8 is available for Mac. The $299 Standard version is Windows only.

Ouch! The bow shots are really flying now. Once Apple figures out how to replace the PDF core with "something better" all bets are off, baby.

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post #30 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

Ouch! The bow shots are really flying now. Once Apple figures out how to replace the PDF core with "something better" all bets are off, baby.

Why would Mac need the standard version anyway? isn't Preview good enough?
flick.
post #31 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flick Justice

I totally agreee. I don't like not having a choice...
I wonder if this makes apple nervous, I mean if adobe decides not to make CS4 for some reason.. apple would loose a lot of folks.

flick.

It depends on how many Mac users are there. Adobe has just said that Mac usership has been going up. Buy the products. It's that simple.

In my user group, people always complain about companies that discontinue Mac products. But, when I ask people to raise their hands if they bought the product, almost no one does. That's the problem.
post #32 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by reidster

Does that user base figure refer to 3 million Mac users or just 3 million users on both Windows and Mac?

That's the very question I was wondering about.

The AI articles aren't always complete, or accurate.
post #33 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Haggar

Checked Adobe's web site and noticed that only the $449 Professional version of Acrobat 8 is available for Mac. The $299 Standard version is Windows only.

Adobe's reasons for that are that those who buy the product on the Mac platform are content CREATORS. Whereas most users on Windows are content USERS.

Also, many users of Acrobat in Windows are office document users and creators. Most Mac users are publishing users and creators.

There is a difference in the program sophistication required for those tasks.
post #34 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

Ouch! The bow shots are really flying now. Once Apple figures out how to replace the PDF core with "something better" all bets are off, baby.

I hope they don't. MS is trying to do that right now with their version of XML.

It would be a disaster!

PDF is ubiquitous in almost every industry now. Apple could never hope to come up with something on their own that would be of interest to anyone.
post #35 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flick Justice

Why would Mac need the standard version anyway? isn't Preview good enough?
flick.

Preview isn't useful creation software. PDF's can be made in almost ecery Mac program as Apple standardized on it. Editing is different.

Acrobat Reader competes with Preview. It is free.
post #36 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross

I hope they don't. MS is trying to do that right now with their version of XML.

It would be a disaster!

PDF is ubiquitous in almost every industry now. Apple could never hope to come up with something on their own that would be of interest to anyone.

I'd rather Apple come up with the QuickTime equivalent of graphics. Something that would be 100% compatible with PDF, and it would enable new graphics creation minus the reliance on PDF. Isn't the entire OSX graphics engine based on PDF?

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post #37 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

I'd rather Apple come up with the QuickTime equivalent of graphics. Something that would be 100% compatible with PDF, and it would enable new graphics creation minus the reliance on PDF. Isn't the entire OSX graphics engine based on PDF?

I'm not sure what that means. But the document standard is PDF. It's integrated into the OS. The display technology is based on Apple's own technologies. Next had Display Postcript.
post #38 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross

The AI articles aren't always complete, or accurate.

Understatement of the year.
post #39 of 67
Good 'ol Adobe. The Microsoft Mac Business Unit.
post #40 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

It's a shame Apple has no viable alternatives to Photoshop and Illustrator. \

An Illustrator competitor is available now.
Bundling it with every Mac Pro would be easy.

And if you think Apple doesn't have a secret prototype of a Photoshop competitor in their labs based on their work with Aperture, you are kidding yourself.

The problems are InDesign and (now) Dreamweaver, that's all.
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