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post #41 of 102
This analyst has apparently been dipping into the crackjar. Why he even thinks there would be a need for such a long view (so far as the market goes) for his investors makes his judgement highly questionable. If he could accurately tell me what will happen in the next quarter, I'd hire him in a heartbeat.

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post #42 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

This analyst has apparently been dipping into the crackjar. Why he even thinks there would be a need for such a long view (so far as the market goes) for his investors makes his judgement highly questionable. If he could accurately tell me what will happen in the next quarter, I'd hire him in a heartbeat.

If you want to know what's happening in the next quarter, and you were an investor, you wouldn't need him. Most investors invest for the long term, sometimes for decades. They want to invest in growth stocks, or stiocks that issue dividends. They don't sell when prices go up or down.

Selling involves paying taxes. Sometimes it's better to hold a stock that's retreating, than to sell into taxes. Even the capital gains of 15% is too much to lose, because you then have to buy into stocks again. Sell in less than a year, and your taxes for the sale can be almost 38% (depending on income). That's why I try to hold for at least a year, unless I'm selling my IRA accounts.
post #43 of 102
I'm a long, long term investor too, but these crystal ball predictions are absurd. C'mon.

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post #44 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

I'm a long, long term investor too, but these crystal ball predictions are absurd. C'mon.

I don't think they're meant to be absolute. Just based on projections. You know how that works. There is an increasingly larger area of doubt as we move further outware. This is likely just the middle of the range, the average.
post #45 of 102
With out a head less mid end desk top I don't see apple going very far.
also if apple where to come with mac osx for any pc they may see 25% + of the os market
post #46 of 102
I see flying cars in the year 2016 and MacBelt Pros will control the portable RAID market. The X-mas gifts of the year, actually.
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post #47 of 102
Quote:
With out a head less mid end desk top I don't see apple going very far.

Nah Mac market share won't budge an inch without that.
post #48 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by azcodemonkey

Apple has a 33% share in my home. Soon it will climb to 66% with a purchase of an iMac.

Hmmmm..... I can't quite figure out the arithmetic here.
(Unless, of course, you are also going to be getting rid of a PC that you currenly own).

First post jitters? I had the same not too long ago.....
post #49 of 102
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post #50 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross


One problem is that Apple is one company. They are competing against an ecology of PC makers, and MS.

Many companies, and governments, simply won't buy, big time, into Apple, because they are a single source.

I know that he is speaking of the home markets (and possibly schools), but without the business and governmental markets as well, there is only so far that Apple can go.

I totally agree.

I just don't think that it would really be worth it for Apple to chase the big business and government market. Just how much money is made in those segments. I know that Dell, HP, Gateway, Leveno and others are desperately trying to increase their sales in higher profit margin segments. For what other reason would Dell have purchased Alien? It was for the higher margins, not marketshare.

Other than significantly reduced component costs that you gain by selling to the big business and government segments, what other advantage is there? Developers maybe?

I think that a key to Apple's survival was outsourcing. With the largest computer manufacturers building their boxes, they have already gained the benefit of large scale purchases. ASUS gets volume discounts buying bulk capacitors, motherboard substrates, ect..., (maybe even Intel processors) that are used in Apple's products and their own products that they manufacture.

I think that Apple is absolutely moving in the right direction, profitable consumer electronics.

Screw market share. Let Dell, et al, battle for the $10 net profit on the boxes in the corporate and government world.

I really don't think enough good things can be said about the iPod and how it has shaped Apple's vision for the future. Go Apple, take over my whole living room
post #51 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by kresh

I totally agree.

I just don't think that it would really be worth it for Apple to chase the big business and government market. Just how much money is made in those segments. I know that Dell, HP, Gateway, Leveno and others are desperately trying to increase their sales in higher profit margin segments. For what other reason would Dell have purchased Alien? It was for the higher margins, not marketshare.

Other than significantly reduced component costs that you gain by selling to the big business and government segments, what other advantage is there? Developers maybe?

I think that a key to Apple's survival was outsourcing. With the largest computer manufacturers building their boxes, they have already gained the benefit of large scale purchases. ASUS gets volume discounts buying bulk capacitors, motherboard substrates, ect..., (maybe even Intel processors) that are used in Apple's products and their own products that they manufacture.

I think that Apple is absolutely moving in the right direction, profitable consumer electronics.

Screw market share. Let Dell, et al, battle for the $10 net profit on the boxes in the corporate and government world.

I really don't think enough good things can be said about the iPod and how it has shaped Apple's vision for the future. Go Apple, take over my whole living room

It's a difficult problem to understand.

I'm hoping that things are changing. But, I have some bad experiences here in the NYC school system, and I'm sure the same problem exists elsewhere.

I'm a volunteer consultant to the school system. I sit on several committees regarding technology and computers. I also do that in the schools my daughter has gone to.

What I've found over the years is that many parents are almost violent about having PC's in schools. They simply do not want to see Macs there. I've had several people, mostly fathers, actually get red in the face with anger over the issue.

The same differences are in the city school committees.

The problem is that they don't want computers in the schools that are not used in business. Used in the business that they are in.

There is a tremendous lack of understanding about this matter. They think that if their kid uses a Mac, that will ruin it for them in college, and later at work. They don't realize that it take but a short time to learn Windows after coming from a Mac

It seems as though unless people see a machine on the desk of a secretary, it isn't a serious machine.
post #52 of 102
Will we have flying cars or scramjets or both and stuff in 2016 as well?
post #53 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross

It's a difficult problem to understand.

I'm hoping that things are changing. But, I have some bad experiences here in the NYC school system, and I'm sure the same problem exists elsewhere.

I'm a volunteer consultant to the school system. I sit on several committees regarding technology and computers. I also do that in the schools my daughter has gone to.

What I've found over the years is that many parents are almost violent about having PC's in schools. They simply do not want to see Macs there. I've had several people, mostly fathers, actually get red in the face with anger over the issue.

The same differences are in the city school committees.

The problem is that they don't want computers in the schools that are not used in business. Used in the business that they are in.

There is a tremendous lack of understanding about this matter. They think that if their kid uses a Mac, that will ruin it for them in college, and later at work. They don't realize that it take but a short time to learn Windows after coming from a Mac

It seems as though unless people see a machine on the desk of a secretary, it isn't a serious machine.

Run Windows in Parallels. Sorted. Mac environment and goodness, guess what, kids use Windoze too. Win-win for all. Convince parents: We are providing a safe environment for children to learn the nasty stuff. Like teaching them to drive in an inflatable popemobile. ...No freeway driving though. Just 'round the block.
post #54 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mkane

I would not put too much faith in a long term projection about market share. Who knows Linux might have 60% of the OS usage by 2016.

While I do agree with your first sentence, when it comes to your second one let's be realistic here.
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post #55 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by Booga

Buried in the article is the assertion that by 2016, Apple will have 40% of the US and European home markets. That's pretty huge, and means good things for software availability.

Not a chance.
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post #56 of 102
I think 10 year predictions in the computer industry are stupid, after looking at all analysis and surveying the situation, it comes down to guess work. If both companies keep going as they are going (Apple & Microsoft) I could see Apple with a worldwide home market share of 25% by 2016. But that's if! Microsoft is going to copy everything Apple does, cause they have to, and Mac's are going to get viral attacks, which will have people saying Mac's aren't any safer. Then there's things like; Google may bring out an OS. Who knows what the future holds with regards to anything, especially tech and computers.
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post #57 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireland

Google may bring out an OS.

I can imagine a Goonix would catch on, if only because Google has absurdly recognizable branding and can offer the kind of services that Apple an Microsoft can only dream of. They already have it in development, the question is whether it will be free or not. Is their internal OS Linux-based?

And what about Solaris? Won't somebody think of Solaris? FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, SOLARIS!!
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post #58 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by wirc

I can imagine a Goonix would catch on, if only because Google has absurdly recognizable branding and can offer the kind of services that Apple an Microsoft can only dream of. They already have it in development, the question is whether it will be free or not. Is their internal OS Linux-based?

And what about Solaris? Won't somebody think of Solaris? FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, SOLARIS!!

Here & here
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post #59 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by sunilraman

Run Windows in Parallels. Sorted. Mac environment and goodness, guess what, kids use Windoze too. Win-win for all. Convince parents: We are providing a safe environment for children to learn the nasty stuff. Like teaching them to drive in an inflatable popemobile. ...No freeway driving though. Just 'round the block.

The problem with Parallels is that you have to spend another $70 to $80 for it, and then another minium of $90 for XP Home, which many people won't want to do.

MS is now making it even more difficult by requiring one to buy a business version of Vista for at least (at list) $299!

But, even then, you are not allowed to run any software with DRM, so what's the point?
post #60 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireland

While I do agree with your first sentence, when it comes to your second one let's be realistic here.

the NYTimes has an article today about takeup rates through 2010 for various Windows versions, and others such as Mac OS, and Linux. It's disappointing, to say the least.

I'll give the link, but I'm not sure if it will work if you don't have the free subscription. Let me know.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/01/te...ss&oref=slogin
post #61 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by wirc

I can imagine a Goonix would catch on, if only because Google has absurdly recognizable branding and can offer the kind of services that Apple an Microsoft can only dream of. They already have it in development, the question is whether it will be free or not. Is their internal OS Linux-based?

And what about Solaris? Won't somebody think of Solaris? FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, SOLARIS!!

I think that Apple, Google, and Sun should merge, or that Apple and Google should merge, and then buy Sun (it's cheap!).

That would be a powerful combination.

Both OS X and Solaris are based on Unix, they could be merged, with the Mac GUI, and Suns' file system. Google would add the online software presence, search, and entry point. The company would then range between fairly inexpensive home machines and the largest business and government servers, all running the same OS, with Suns' enterprise and government sales group selling them into those markets.

There are other synergies between the three that I'm not mentioning, that I'm sure others can come up with.

This would be the only true threat to MS that there can be now. No one else can compete with them anymore on all levels, and markets, as this one would.

I know some will shrink at this idea, but I really think it is a good one.
post #62 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross

I think that Apple, Google, and Sun should merge, or that Apple and Google should merge, and then buy Sun (it's cheap!).

That would be a powerful combination.

Ummm.... a "merger" is, in actuality, an acquisition.

A "merger of equals without paying a premium where I can simply add up the two balance sheets and income statements and pretend that nothing else happened" (which people often implicitly mean) is fiction.

I do agree with the second part of your statement.
post #63 of 102
By 2017, 78% of flying cars will be running Mac OS XI.
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post #64 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram

Ummm.... a "merger" is, in actuality, an acquisition.

A "merger of equals without paying a premium where I can simply add up the two balance sheets and income statements and pretend that nothing else happened" (which people often implicitly mean) is fiction.

I do agree with the second part of your statement.

I think you know what I meant.
post #65 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross

the NYTimes has an article today about takeup rates through 2010 for various Windows versions, and others such as Mac OS, and Linux. It's disappointing, to say the least.

I'll give the link, but I'm not sure if it will work if you don't have the free subscription. Let me know.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/01/te...ss&oref=slogin

Yeah that worked. This Gartner firm is full of retards. They have predicted that Mac and Linux will lose market share through 2010. Any owl idiot would be aware that Mac market share will be on the up over the next couple of years. Besides them or no one else even knows what Leopard will even look like. Absolute soupbrains.


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post #66 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross

Jobs would have been out of a, er, job.

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post #67 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross

I think that Apple, Google, and Sun should merge, or that Apple and Google should merge, and then buy Sun (it's cheap!).

That would be a powerful combination.

Both OS X and Solaris are based on Unix, they could be merged, with the Mac GUI, and Suns' file system. Google would add the online software presence, search, and entry point. The company would then range between fairly inexpensive home machines and the largest business and government servers, all running the same OS, with Suns' enterprise and government sales group selling them into those markets.

There are other synergies between the three that I'm not mentioning, that I'm sure others can come up with.

This would be the only true threat to MS that there can be now. No one else can compete with them anymore on all levels, and markets, as this one would.

I know some will shrink at this idea, but I really think it is a good one.

Wow that would make a lot of sense. Now step your game up and become a high level apple exec and make the suggestion at a conference!
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post #68 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross

I think that Apple, Google, and Sun should merge, or that Apple and Google should merge, and then buy Sun (it's cheap!).

That would be a powerful combination.

Both OS X and Solaris are based on Unix, they could be merged, with the Mac GUI, and Suns' file system. Google would add the online software presence, search, and entry point. The company would then range between fairly inexpensive home machines and the largest business and government servers, all running the same OS, with Suns' enterprise and government sales group selling them into those markets.

There are other synergies between the three that I'm not mentioning, that I'm sure others can come up with.

This would be the only true threat to MS that there can be now. No one else can compete with them anymore on all levels, and markets, as this one would.

I know some will shrink at this idea, but I really think it is a good one.

I agree, a lot. That idea is too right to ever happen, would love if it did though.

This is not a but, but, what would they be called? Gapplesun? Sgoople?
Or... they'd buy up sun, keep their clout but kill the name. Apple's would be the name on all the hardware. And iLife would expande, and change it's name to the Google suite.

1. ZFS.. hmmm.
2. iMaps hmmm.
3. AMail hmmm.
4. Man oh man, wow.
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post #69 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacTel

They can barely keep up with demand now. Apple can't ramp-up production that quickly.

They can on the underachieving desktop end.
post #70 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by shetline

By 2017, 78% of flying cars will be running Mac OS XI.

Excellent... ROFLMAO
post #71 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireland

I agree, a lot. That idea is too right to ever happen, would love if it did though.

This is not a but, but, what would they be called? Gapplesun? Sgoople?
Or... they'd buy up sun, keep their clout but kill the name. Apple's would be the name on all the hardware. And iLife would expande, and change it's name to the Google suite.

1. ZFS.. hmmm.
2. iMaps hmmm.
3. AMail hmmm.
4. Man oh man, wow.

Yeah, the name would be a problem, wouldn't it?

I wouldn't even begin to know where to start.
post #72 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross

Some people here do. It's totally unrealistic.

One problem is that Apple is one company. They are competing against an ecology of PC makers, and MS.

Many companies, and governments, simply won't buy, big time, into Apple, because they are a single source.

I know that he is speaking of the home markets (and possibly schools), but without the business and governmental markets as well, there is only so far that Apple can go.

I really do believe that at some point in time, Apple will again license their OS, but will maintain far greater control over how it is done, perhaps only having one or two companies make machines for it, and only under specified conditions. Restricting machines to catagories that Apple doesn't sell into would be effective now.

This is made possible if Apple continues a successful iPod and software business, and also has a sucessful one in phones, and other areas. This would decrease the cpu portion of the business, even though it would be growing at a good rate. That would allow them to do licensing, and significantly increase the OS and software sales to more than offset the loss of some hardware business.

It's possible that Apple could sell several copies of the OS to those cpu makers for every one loss in sales they have, as well as more of their software. As software has profits up to 80%, this would result in more profit at little loss in total sales. Eventually, it could result in increased sales as well.

<i>Many companies, and governments, simply won't buy, big time, into Apple, because they are a single source.</i>

Fortunately the single-source concern isn't true of any US companies I've ever heard of, nor the US government. Thus, it's pretty irrelevant for Apple's primary markets.
post #73 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by Booga

<i>Many companies, and governments, simply won't buy, big time, into Apple, because they are a single source.</i>

I know, I've said that for a long time now.

But they don't seem to have a problem with Sun, even though most of the major second sourced server companies have stopped competing.

And by making the OS compatible, that ends that problem, as all Sun compatible machines are now other sources.

Quote:
Fortunately the single-source concern isn't true of any US companies I've ever heard of, nor the US government. Thus, it's pretty irrelevant for Apple's primary markets.

It's pretty true of big business and government here.
post #74 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross

But they don't seem to have a problem with Sun, even though most of the major second sourced server companies have stopped competing.

Fujitsu is still in the game and expected to come out with dual-core Sparcs next year and quad cores in 2008. Themis still creates sparc based machines. So there is still a second source for Sparc based computers. As far as the OS...well its opensource now. Its as "viable" for the government as Linux and Sun isn't going away tomorrow anyway.

Vinea
post #75 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireland

Yeah that worked. This Gartner firm is full of retards. They have predicted that Mac and Linux will lose market share through 2010. Any owl idiot would be aware that Mac market share will be on the up over the next couple of years. Besides them or no one else even knows what Leopard will even look like. Absolute soupbrains.

Yeah but the growth could be entirely 3rd-world, in which case, it would include large percentages of pirated software or that version that is aimed at "emerging markets" and is crippled like Tiny Tim. And this report shows nothing about either of those, so how the hell can we trust their research.

On the other hand, why is the Linux share going down - I see Linux getting picked up by governments and organizations everywhere. When there are user-friendly distributions developing rapidly, I think that people will start to catch on an think about diversifying the computer world.
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post #76 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinea

Fujitsu is still in the game and expected to come out with dual-core Sparcs next year and quad cores in 2008. Themis still creates sparc based machines. So there is still a second source for Sparc based computers. As far as the OS...well its opensource now. Its as "viable" for the government as Linux and Sun isn't going away tomorrow anyway.

Vinea

Fujitsu is the last independent manufacturer of Sparcs, if I remember correctly. There are still a few makers of Sun compatibles.

Sun just had a comeback year. Good for them. That's one reason why I think it would be a good deal.
post #77 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by wirc

Yeah but the growth could be entirely 3rd-world, in which case, it would include large percentages of pirated software or that version that is aimed at "emerging markets" and is crippled like Tiny Tim. And this report shows nothing about either of those, so how the hell can we trust their research.

On the other hand, why is the Linux share going down - I see Linux getting picked up by governments and organizations everywhere. When there are user-friendly distributions developing rapidly, I think that people will start to catch on an think about diversifying the computer world.

Microsoft has had to come up with "emerging markets" versions because they know nobody in that part of the world can afford to buy a name brand computer or the software to go on it. As computer ownership spreads through the 70% of the world's population living between Afghanistan and Japan, Apple is going to be left behind because their international prices are completely out of reach for virtually everyone.

That isn't necessarily a bad thing. Apple knows better than most companies how to thrive as a niche player.

Microsoft, on the other hand, is going to have to provide software to the developing world for next to nothing and subsidize internet access for billions of people or they'll be relegated to niche player too, a role they can't even imagine.
post #78 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bregalad

Microsoft has had to come up with "emerging markets" versions because they know nobody in that part of the world can afford to buy a name brand computer or the software to go on it. As computer ownership spreads through the 70% of the world's population living between Afghanistan and Japan, Apple is going to be left behind because their international prices are completely out of reach for virtually everyone.....

Yes, this is the main challenge for Apple in developing countries. Dell, HP, Acer are owning the markets and OEM Windows makes the whole shebang affordable (but troublesome as per using Windows in general, crashing, cheapo hardware, etc.....).........
post #79 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross

It's a difficult problem to understand.

I'm hoping that things are changing. But, I have some bad experiences here in the NYC school system, and I'm sure the same problem exists elsewhere.

I'm a volunteer consultant to the school system. I sit on several committees regarding technology and computers. I also do that in the schools my daughter has gone to.

What I've found over the years is that many parents are almost violent about having PC's in schools. They simply do not want to see Macs there. I've had several people, mostly fathers, actually get red in the face with anger over the issue.

The same differences are in the city school committees.

The problem is that they don't want computers in the schools that are not used in business. Used in the business that they are in.

There is a tremendous lack of understanding about this matter. They think that if their kid uses a Mac, that will ruin it for them in college, and later at work. They don't realize that it take but a short time to learn Windows after coming from a Mac

It seems as though unless people see a machine on the desk of a secretary, it isn't a serious machine.

And they call us Zealots! Don't they realize that a student who's been using Tiger will be in a better position to use the major new features of Vista than an XP user? (because MS just emulate Apple and the time lag of a few years is about the same as a colleague course/degree)

I understand Macs have been doing well in the UK but the decision making is less parental. Sounds like you have your work cut out for you.

McD
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post #80 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross

No, he wasn't. Pixar was a very small company for years. It was only about the time that NEXT was bought by Amelio, that Pixar began to do well with Toy Story.


Yes, he was. The Pixar IPO took place November 29, 1995, pretty much in line with the release of Toy Story. The IPO opened at 22 and hit 50 before the end of the day. Jobs owned over 60% of Pixar at the time. Apple purchased Next on December 20th, 1996. A full year later.

I would argue that Steve saw for instance how his decisions in the past were bad for Next such as losing the deal to license NextStep to IBM because he was difficult. I might also argue that he sold it because he wanted to get more leverage over Apple as he had called Apple board members telling them to consider him for the CEO job even before Amelio took over, But at the time of the sale of Next to Apple, Steve had plenty of money to do whatever he wanted including continuing to keep Next alive on his own dime as he had for years.
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