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Analyst says iTV, new iPod and iPhone 'likely' at Macworld

post #1 of 43
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PiperJaffray analyst Gene Munster on Tuesday said Apple Computer is likely to roll out its iTV set-top box at Macworld Expo in addition to a new iPod and its much anticipated iPod cell phone.

In a note to clients, the analyst assessed 11 of the most popular product rumors surrounding the Cupertino, Calif.-based company, including a ranking of certainty on which products are likely to appear at the January trade show.

"With one month left in what is anticipated to be a solid holiday quarter for Apple, we believe investors will start to shift their focus to potential new product announcements at Apple's Macworld expo on January 9," Munster wrote.

He said growing expectations for new and upgraded products at Macworld could provide upside to his valuation of Apple, noting that the iTV and iPhone represent "significant additional potential drivers" for the company. He said the two products could be strengthened further by a release of a widescreen iPod at the trade show.

"Just as Apple waited several years to enter the MP3 market, we believe the company is well-positioned to enter the phone market now that early music-enabled handsets have tested the waters," Munster told clients. "Apple will differentiate itself by offering iTunes integration on Macs and PCs, and by leveraging its expertise in software engineering for media playing devices."

Almost Certain (in the next 2-6 months):

In the "almost certain" category, Munster listed both the iPhone's entry to manufacturing and a release of iTV at Macworld, ranking both rumors a 10 out of 10 in terms of certainty.

Likely (in the next 6-12 months):

The analyst said it's "likely" the iPhone will sport a candy bar form-facor, giving that rumor a 9 out of 10 ranking. Similarly, he said a wireless widescreen iPod with touch-sensitivity and a second iPhone model with integrated keyboard are also likely, ranking both rumors a 7 out of 10.

Also likely, though with a slightly lower ranking of 6 out of 10, are rumblings that the iPhone will be available in 4GB and 8GB configurations, bundle an iSight camera, and work on multiple wireless carriers.

A Stretch (possibly in the next 12-18 months):

Unlikely rumors, which Munster calls "a stretch," include an ultra-portable 12-inch MacBook Pro (4 out of 10), radio-transparent material used for iPhone casing (3 out of 10), iPhone to feature "iChat Mobile" video and instant messaging (2 out of 10), and a release of Mac OS X 10.5 Leopard at Macworld (3 out of 10).
post #2 of 43
Oh man-

12" Macbook pro! That would be so sweet! w00t!

I hope it has illuminated keyboard this time around .
post #3 of 43
i'm kinda hoping for the widescreen ipod to debut at macworld in january.
post #4 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by monkeyastronaut

i'm kinda hoping for the widescreen ipod to debut at macworld in january.

Didn't the analyst just give that a 7 out of 10 of happening?


I like Gene Munster, he seems to be one of the better analysts.
post #5 of 43
They're like... analyzing rumors? Is that it? Just like you and me and everyone else? Strange business. Just because they say it, what makes it more reliable?
post #6 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by palegolas

They're like... analyzing rumors? Is that it? Just like you and me and everyone else? Strange business. Just because they say it, what makes it more reliable?

well, the difference is, non analyzers pay them
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post #7 of 43
Quote:
The analyst said it's "likely" the iPhone will sport a candy bar form-facor, giving that rumor a 9 out of 10 ranking. Similarly, he said a wireless widescreen iPod with touch-sensitivity and a second iPhone model with integrated keyboard are also likely, ranking both rumors a 7 out of 10.

1- A touch screen iPod and a candy bar with an integrated keyboard?! It is so not Jonathan Ive! Only tech heads want to use eeneeweenee tiny keyboards and greasy touch screens! Bytheby, ever tried using a touch screen or babykeyboard outside during Winter with your gloves on?! It's no problem with the (physical) clickwheel 8)

2- A 10/10 certainty is a fact

3- A 12" MBP? Don't think so. They'd rather wait for Santa Rosa (the new Intel chip sheduled in spring 07) and update the complete MBP family.

4- iTv is gonna be the big news! Together with a new iPod. The hot iPhone is not gonna be until September 07! And if they do, it's gonna outshine the other announcements.
post #8 of 43
he really is pissing in the wind
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post #9 of 43
He doesn't know any more than we do. Why is this even being reported on?
post #10 of 43
I ain't posting *my* analysis 'till someone pays me an effin' dime.
post #11 of 43
Quote:
A Stretch (possibly in the next 12-18 months):

Unlikely rumors, which Munster calls "a stretch," include an ultra-portable 12-inch MacBook Pro (4 out of 10), radio-transparent material used for iPhone casing (3 out of 10), iPhone to feature "iChat Mobile" video and instant messaging (2 out of 10), and a release of Mac OS X 10.5 Leopard at Macworld (3 out of 10).

I don't understand. 12-18 months for Leopard? We already know it's going to be with us around spring time… so why even bother saying otherwise?

The article is pointless in my opinion, it's just a summary of what we know with some random stuff.

-tj
post #12 of 43
One funny side note is that almost instantly after
LG showed their ultra portable concept laptop rumors of an ultra portable mac laptop emerges... sounds like some mac fan or some leaker at apple didn't like the blow.
post #13 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by palegolas

They're like... analyzing rumors? Is that it? Just like you and me and everyone else? Strange business. Just because they say it, what makes it more reliable?

Yes. These rumors are now 10% more reliable because they have analyzed them.
post #14 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider

... iPhone to feature "iChat Mobile" video and instant messaging (2 out of 10)

from context, i feel like this will be an uninformed question, but that won't stop me! Why WOULDN'T a new iPhone include text messaging? both my phones include it, and all the low-end Sprint phones my daughters use allow IM'g. I consider it a standard feature. Apparently it's not?
post #15 of 43
Ok, I don't get it, stopping the focus on this holiday season and turning to new announcements? It seems that whoever wrote this is not familiar with holiday marketing... The biggest day is yet to come... This Monday. There is no reason Apple would start dropping their marketing for the holiday season until at least that day is over, but why tell people about all the money they can spend AFTER Christmas BEFORE Christmas... Remember, Steve Jobs is 'going to milk Apple for all that it is worth', so isn't it much more feasible that they are going to try to get all the consumers to buy the stuff for Christmas, and then say 'Hey, we have all these new products', and then everyone who gets the latest and greatest orders.

You know, I guess Almost Certain is 10 out of 10... And that makes sense, because when it is knowledge it isn't a rumor.

mr O, in case you were wondering, it isn't just 'tech heads' who use them, actually all of our attorneys and our office manager love using them, and many other 'regular' people. They really are quite handy. If you look at market share, I do believe items like the Treo and Blackberry are most purchased by people in the Professional field...
post #16 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by rtdunham

from context, i feel like this will be an uninformed question, but that won't stop me! Why WOULDN'T a new iPhone include text messaging? both my phones include it, and all the low-end Sprint phones my daughters use allow IM'g. I consider it a standard feature. Apparently it's not?

This also crossed my mind. With a statement like "leveraging its expertise in software engineering" and the fact that anyphone has IM and text messaging it's agiven that the iPhone will have iChat features out of the box.

With Vista finally being released in January I can't imagine waiting for Leopard to arrive, much less 12-18 months.

Why would an iPod need 802.11 wireless? It's a slow transfer compared to USB2.0 or FW-400. It will significantly reduce the battery life of any device while adding increased cost and weigh. Seriously, I'm looking for a valid answer as I really don't the interest in it.

And as previous stated, a 10/10 Certainty rating is not speculative. It's hard to believe these people get paid for this. Where can I get a job like this?
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post #17 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by DeaPeaJay

Didn't the analyst just give that a 7 out of 10 of happening?


I like Gene Munster, he seems to be one of the better analysts.

well, he also said 6-12 months... that's too long in my opinion.

i agree that he seems more insightful.
post #18 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by othello

he really is pissing in the wind

Don't get Tukata (whatever his fake name is) going on about urine therapy again.

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post #19 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by palegolas

They're like... analyzing rumors? Is that it? Just like you and me and everyone else? Strange business. Just because they say it, what makes it more reliable?

He does that every so often. After all, the rumors he acesses are ones that are popular, and sometimes brought up first by the analysts themselves as they go through their sources for information.

I think it's interesting, and what he saya looks likely, though they are only his informed guesses.
post #20 of 43
Most likely candidates for introduction at MacWorld: 100GB iPod and re-branded iTV.

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post #21 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

Most likely candidates for introduction at MacWorld: 100GB iPod and re-branded iTV.

do you think 100GB ipod = 6th gen widescreen ipod? or 5.9 gen ipod?
post #22 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by monkeyastronaut

do you think 100GB ipod = 6th gen widescreen ipod? or 5.9 gen ipod?

I'm actually going with the majority on this one---6th gen widescreen. That will make the impact of iTV that much greater.

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post #23 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

I'm actually going with the majority on this one---6th gen widescreen. That will make the impact of iTV that much greater.

If it does, at what cost?

That 100GB drive will be expensive for a while.
post #24 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

Most likely candidates for introduction at MacWorld: 100GB iPod and re-branded iTV.

The 100GB 1.8" HDD was just introduced today. There is no way it'll be ready for an iPod in 5 weeks. Case in point, remember when the perpenicular, 750GB drives became available for sale and other major OEMs, sans Apple, had them as a build option. I assume this was because the technology was too new and not all the bugs had been ironed out.
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post #25 of 43
I'll leave the details to the analysts, researchers and engineers.

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post #26 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism

The 100GB 1.8" HDD was just introduced today. There is no way it'll be ready for an iPod in 5 weeks. Case in point, remember when the perpenicular, 750GB drives became available for sale and other major OEMs, sans Apple, had them as a build option. I assume this was because the technology was too new and not all the bugs had been ironed out.

Apple, like other companies in their catagory, tests products before offering them. I'm talking about things such as hd's, memory, etc, and not every accessory sold on their site, or in their stores.

When a new product comes out, therefore, it takes a while before it appears.
post #27 of 43
Any chance the announcement would be made a bit after Apple has had time to implement it into their product line?

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post #28 of 43
I predict Steve Jobs will give the keynote address at MacWorld (10-10 probability). Also predict bladder problems (10-10) for fans sitting at their computers through streaming of event.
post #29 of 43
To those who obviously don't understand, the iChat feature of the rumored iPhone isn't text messages to other mobile phones, it's text, voice and potentially video chats with people running iChat on their computers!

We're talking about a mobile phone that is no longer bound exclusively to your phone provider's cell network. This phone will be able to connect directly to the internet using Wi-Fi. Can you say "unlimited free calls"?
post #30 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by palegolas

They're like... analyzing rumors? Is that it? Just like you and me and everyone else? Strange business. Just because they say it, what makes it more reliable?

Question:
Why would any analyst make public their predictions when this is what they are suppose to be getting paid for? Why wouldn't they just give this information out to their clients?

Answer:
Because if they can get public buzz about their predictions they can be self-fullfilling in the market no matter if the actual predictions come true. They tell their clients to buy Apple at 85 and sell at 115, based on their "analyzed rumors" then they make sure the public catches the buzz. Enough buzz will drive the price up to the selling price (115). Then their customers are happy and they are happy. They and their clients don't really care if the actual predictions come true as long as the market price prediction comes true. Then you just make sure you sell at 115 in case the predictions are totally bogus.

In the 90's the analyst drove Apple stock down by self-fullfilling predictions of Apple's doom and now they can work it in the other direction.


In summary here is the analyst job: Make a prediction on stock price based on whatever... doesn't matter. Then drive the media exposure on your expert prediction.

IQ78
post #31 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bregalad

To those who obviously don't understand, the iChat feature of the rumored iPhone isn't text messages to other mobile phones, it's text, voice and potentially video chats with people running iChat on their computers!

We're talking about a mobile phone that is no longer bound exclusively to your phone provider's cell network. This phone will be able to connect directly to the internet using Wi-Fi. Can you say "unlimited free calls"?

Just which cell company will be oveerjoyed to have a phone in their lineup that will allow unlimited phone service through the internet? They are in the business of selling services that we pay for.

Besides, WiFi is a waste of time for most of us now. There aren't that many hot spots that you can just phone out through. You have to fine one first.
post #32 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by IQ78

Question:
Why would any analyst make public their predictions when this is what they are suppose to be getting paid for? Why wouldn't they just give this information out to their clients?

Answer:
Because if they can get public buzz about their predictions they can be self-fullfilling in the market no matter if the actual predictions come true. They tell their clients to buy Apple at 85 and sell at 115, based on their "analyzed rumors" then they make sure the public catches the buzz. Enough buzz will drive the price up to the selling price (115). Then their customers are happy and they are happy. They and their clients don't really care if the actual predictions come true as long as the market price prediction comes true. Then you just make sure you sell at 115 in case the predictions are totally bogus.

In the 90's the analyst drove Apple stock down by self-fullfilling predictions of Apple's doom and now they can work it in the other direction.


In summary here is the analyst job: Make a prediction on stock price based on whatever... doesn't matter. Then drive the media exposure on your expert prediction.

IQ78

That's the "I don't invest" analysis. The reality is different.
post #33 of 43
Quote:
A Stretch (possibly in the next 12-18 months):

... and a release of Mac OS X 10.5 Leopard at Macworld (3 out of 10).

Quote:
Originally Posted by tomozj

I don't understand. 12-18 months for Leopard? We already know it's going to be with us around spring time… so why even bother saying otherwise?

Reading comprehension is not a strong suit, eh? Let me re-word the article for you: "Of things that are considered a stretch to occur in the next 12 to 18 months, Jobs introducing OSX Leopard at Macworld would be among these." The point was that it is unlikely to see Leopard released at Macworld.

Quote:
Originally Posted by EruIthildur

Ok, I don't get it, stopping the focus on this holiday season and turning to new announcements? It seems that whoever wrote this is not familiar with holiday marketing... The biggest day is yet to come... This Monday.

I may be wrong about this, but I was under the impression that Black Friday was the biggest shopping day in the US. And certainly the US is all that matters to these analysts (maybe not, but it will definately receive the majority of their mind-share).
post #34 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross

That's the "I don't invest" analysis. The reality is different.

Actually, I do invest and I do know that reality will ultimately drive the market, but there is inertia and short term market factors that sometimes take a while to shake out. In these cases decent media exposure can certainly drive the market in the short term. Small and large bubbles can and the market can have short term perpetual motion machines. Sure, eventually they get popped and all is conserved, but the short term is a whole other matter.

I'll admit that my comments were a bit tongue-in-cheek and over simplified. But there is some truth to it.

IAMIQ78
post #35 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by Denton

I may be wrong about this, but I was under the impression that Black Friday was the biggest shopping day in the US. And certainly the US is all that matters to these analysts (maybe not, but it will definately receive the majority of their mind-share).

Actually, the WSJ made reference to this in an article today (I forget which, but if you get it, it is in the headlines and also on the morning read). Black Friday is the second largest day, the largest is this upcoming Monday if I recall correctly.
post #36 of 43
If the iphone is good I'll buy it. If a widescreen ipod drops I'd be so happy, so good for commuting. And it'd blow zune straight to hell. Bring it steve now's the time to close in on your enemies! (and maybe drop a mid-range tower, come on man show some love)

But macworld should have at least 1 mac announcement, it just wouldn't be right any other way.

And they should give itv the ability to surf the web, so I can do it on my ass. If not when I get around to getting a wii I'll just use that.
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post #37 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by EruIthildur

Black Friday is the second largest day, the largest is this upcoming Monday if I recall correctly.

what is so special in the US about this upcoming Monday, dec 11? (i dont live in the us)
post #38 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by ecking

But macworld should have at least 1 mac announcement, it just wouldn't be right any other way.

maybe mac minis will go core 2 duo.
post #39 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross

Just which cell company will be oveerjoyed to have a phone in their lineup that will allow unlimited phone service through the internet? They are in the business of selling services that we pay for.

Well, it's the way to go. In Belgium (Europe), phone operators are allready feverishly working to adapt their existing business model. Meaning: soon you can phone for free (using your mobile & stationary phone) but you will have to pay for internet services and content on your digital tv.

To summarise: speech is gonna be free while you will have to pay for content. In this respect it's a bit odd that Apple is about to join a paid for speech business model (in decay).


Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross

Besides, WiFi is a waste of time for most of us now. There aren't that many hot spots that you can just phone out through. You have to find one first.

Apple's to figure out. They allready have a proven track record to baffle us. iTv could actually be the missing link Whatever the technology, I guess we will both go ooooh, aaaaah in january 2007. And it is not gonna be because of the fireworks
post #40 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by mr O

Well, it's the way to go. In Belgium (Europe), phone operators are allready feverishly working to adapt their existing business model. Meaning: soon you can phone for free (using your mobile & stationary phone) but you will have to pay for internet services and content on your digital tv.

To summarise: speech is gonna be free while you will have to pay for content. In this respect it's a bit odd that Apple is about to join a paid for speech business model (in decay).

Since those very same companies have been having serious problems getting customers to sign up for those extra 3G services, I'm not so sure that what you say will come to pass. Customers in Europe have been resistent to paying for data services. I don't see why it would be any different now, unless they lower the prices significantly.

Quote:
Apple's to figure out. They allready have a proven track record to baffle us. iTv could actually be the missing link Whatever the technology, I guess we will both go ooooh, aaaaah in january 2007. And it is not gonna be because of the fireworks

That's easy for you to say. But, it's no more than a wild guess, if you can't come out with a reason why, and how they could do it, without using their own network, which is something that I and others have talked about several times in the past.
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