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Apple well prepared this holiday shopping season

post #1 of 23
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Having learned from past miscues, Apple Computer appears to have more aptly prepared itself for this year's critical holiday buying season, research and investment firm PiperJaffray said Thursday.

In a side note to clients, Sr. Research Analyst Gene Munster said Apple is showing that its learned to better anticipate seasonal patterns and "is poised to monetize iPod and Mac demand" better this year than it did in the prior two years.

"While some may see this as a sign that demand is lower, we believe Apple has simply improved its ability to anticipate and avoid constraints during peak buying times," he wrote.

Historically, Apple has been constrained by supply during the holiday shopping season with long product lead-times. But data taken from the current month shows the supply ramp improving, Munster said.

While the analyst acknowledges that Apple "will likely always struggle to find the balance of supplying hot new products just after they launch," it's doing a better job as a company in anticipating seasonal buying patterns and ramping iPod and Mac production accordingly.

According to the analyst's checks, lead-times are averaging 24 hours across all iPod and Mac products this month -- down from a 1-2 days delay average in 2005, and an average 6 day delay in 2004 (5 days for iPods, 7 days for Macs).

Munster maintains an "Outperform" rating on shares of Apple with a price target of $99.
post #2 of 23
"Meet the Munsters!"

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #3 of 23
Apple's design and marketing folks get the liions share of the credit for apple's success, but people never seem to appreciate how well run that company is from a management perspective.
post #4 of 23
I would agree with the analyst's opinion. When I ordered my iMac 2 years ago it was shipped by Fedex straight from China to my house in the US. That could not have been cheap and it took close to a week. I just ordered a mac for my parents on Monday night (yes, Monday night) and it was delivered Wednesday morning. The Fedex tracking had it leaving a warehouse near Harrisburg, PA. Apple has smartly staged a large number of standard configs of iMacs and probably other products close to the east coast where many of their customers live. That's cheaper for Apple (no more air shipping from China) and I'm a happier customer because I got it faster. With that said, it's now going to sit under the tree for a couple of weeks... =(
post #5 of 23
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider

Having learned from past miscues, Apple Computer appears to have more aptly prepared itself for this year's critical holiday buying season, research and investment firm PiperJaffray said Thursday.

In a side note to clients, Sr. Research Analyst Gene Munster said Apple is showing that its learned to better anticipate seasonal patterns and "is poised to monetize iPod and Mac demand" better this year than it did in the prior two years.

"While some may see this as a sign that demand is lower, we believe Apple has simply improved its ability to anticipate and avoid constraints during peak buying times," he wrote.

Historically, Apple has been constrained by supply during the holiday shopping season with long product lead-times. But data taken from the current month shows the supply ramp improving, Munster said.

While the analyst acknowledges that Apple "will likely always struggle to find the balance of supplying hot new products just after they launch," it's doing a better job as a company in anticipating seasonal buying patterns and ramping iPod and Mac production accordingly.

According to the analyst's checks, lead-times are averaging 24 hours across all iPod and Mac products this month -- down from a 1-2 days delay average in 2005, and an average 6 day delay in 2004 (5 days for iPods, 7 days for Macs).

Munster maintains an "Outperform" rating on shares of Apple with a price target of $99.

Another testimonial: Yesterday I ordered iPod shuffles for the entire family (13), complete with engraving, and 11 iTunes cards. Yesterday evening I received shipping confirmation for the iPods, and today I received all 11 iTunes cards.

Wow!
post #6 of 23
Does this mean that Apple is getting away from their "Just In Time" manufacturing model and has started to warehouse more inventory?

Or has Apple added more manufacturing capacity?
post #7 of 23
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider

In a side note to clients, Sr. Research Analyst Gene Munster said Apple is showing that its learned to better anticipate seasonal patterns and "is poised to monetize iPod and Mac demand" better this year than it did in the prior two years.

"While some may see this as a sign that demand is lower, we believe Apple has simply improved its ability to anticipate and avoid constraints during peak buying times," he wrote.

Great that we can get kit on time but what's new? Where's the killer holiday product?

McD
Why does somebody ask me a question, I can never understand, I can never provide the answer, but believe I can.
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Why does somebody ask me a question, I can never understand, I can never provide the answer, but believe I can.
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post #8 of 23
Quote:
Originally Posted by McDave

Great that we can get kit on time but what's new? Where's the killer holiday product?

McD

Good point. It does look like Apple is trying to milk the holiday season with proven (in other words, old) products and saving the new, exciting ones for post Dec. 25th. There are a lot of people who need to put something under the tree, but will also go out and buy when new stuff comes out. If Apple came out with new stuff for the holidays, they'd be missing out on a sale.
post #9 of 23
I ordered my Mac Mini with extra RAM and HD on November 25th, 2006. It didn't ship until December 5th despite telling me that it would ship in 2-4 business days. I don't buy this article.
Mac Mini 1.83GHz, 2GB RAM, 120GB HD
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Mac Mini 1.83GHz, 2GB RAM, 120GB HD
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post #10 of 23
"Well prepared for holiday season"? You must be joking! I ordered my MBP on 9th November. A month later there's still no sign of it!!
Maybe it's because I'm in Europe and the US market is serverd first (even though we pay the same prices here as you in the US. But as we pay in Euro that means we actually pay almost 30% more). Well, I'd say "well prepared" is something else.....and I don't expect my MBP before the end of the year anymore.... Cheers
post #11 of 23
Quote:
Originally Posted by brookecp

Another testimonial: Yesterday I ordered iPod shuffles for the entire family (13), complete with engraving, and 11 iTunes cards. Yesterday evening I received shipping confirmation for the iPods, and today I received all 11 iTunes cards.

Wow!

13 pods, 11 cards - who got shorted?
post #12 of 23
I have to agree with Kresh. The just in Time model is OK for the online store. But there should be stacks and stacks of ipods and iMacs in the ailse of your favorite Consumer electronics stores. Apple is still too scarce in stores. iPods standing alone in displays are just lost sales. Over produce Apple. Make some business for mom and Pop upgrade shops and Apple stores out there.
Also Apple has to stop thinking America first and the rest of the world second or whenever. In Canada it's not that bad but the delays are there. I hope they're well prepared but it shouldn't only be at Christmas time.
And i've always thought they should move January Macworld to October. so they could launch new Christmas stuff early.
Make it idiotproof and they'll just make a
better idiot.
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Make it idiotproof and they'll just make a
better idiot.
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post #13 of 23
Quote:
Originally Posted by mcloki

I have to agree with Kresh. The just in Time model is OK for the online store. But there should be stacks and stacks of ipods and iMacs in the ailse of your favorite Consumer electronics stores. Apple is still too scarce in stores.

A lot of the blame for low store inventories are with the retailers themselves. They want minimum inventories to reach their sales targets and control open to buy very tightly. The retailers that ordered well in advance should have good initial inventories. Those that played it too tight will be caught short and can't expect vigorous replenishment this close to Christmas.
Ken
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Ken
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post #14 of 23
Gene Munster tends to be the best of the analyst lot so far in the past 2 years. He's not made much news on Ai recently (past few months) until now... Much better than those dodgy bozos eg. Shawn Wu.

But yeah, analyst overload warning. Danger Will Robinson! Analysts! Analysts! *flails arms wildly*

iPod Shuffle in Australia online Apple Store shows 24hours still........ Nanos still in sight at Target, Apple resellers. I cannot confirm availability of MacBooks or MacBookPros in Melbourne, Aust. at this stage. I may need to call up several resellers. But iPod Shuffles and Nanos are definitely around. [For those in Aust: Myer, DavidJones, KMart, Target, Apple resellers that sell Macs].................
post #15 of 23
Quote:
Originally Posted by UrbanVoyeur

13 pods, 11 cards - who got shorted?

post #16 of 23
Certainly they are not prepared well in Europe... I ordered one MacBook Pro (BTO) and one Macbook (standard, but english keyboard) and I was told it would take around 2-3 weeks. Well... It's over a month and still no word about delivery date. Last time I asked, I was told that they *hope* it will be until Christmas... Well I hope too :o)
post #17 of 23
I noticed that the shuffles were out of stock pretty much everywhere for the last few weeks, but now it seems that new shipments have come in.
Heck, I even picked up a PS3 yesterday at Best Buy!
post #18 of 23
Quote:
Originally Posted by milton.john

Certainly they are not prepared well in Europe... I ordered one MacBook Pro (BTO) and one Macbook (standard, but english keyboard) and I was told it would take around 2-3 weeks. Well... It's over a month and still no word about delivery date. Last time I asked, I was told that they *hope* it will be until Christmas... Well I hope too :o)

That sucks dude. Sorry to hear.
post #19 of 23
Quote:
Originally Posted by sunilraman

That sucks dude. Sorry to hear.

It would be much easier to "handle", if they at least could tell what is the problem and when they expect shipping date. But this "maybe till christmas" drives me mad... I have to have them this year due to tax reasons and I leave for vacation before christmas. Funny
post #20 of 23
Quote:
Originally Posted by milton.john

It would be much easier to "handle", if they at least could tell what is the problem and when they expect shipping date. But this "maybe till christmas" drives me mad... I have to have them this year due to tax reasons and I leave for vacation before christmas. Funny

So for your tax deal the tax year is the calendar year, huh...? Can't you just show the paid invoices dates as the evidence? That sucks if you have to have physically received it and delivery confirmation before you can claim it for tax. Where are you now at the moment........... \

I understand a bit your frustration, I've mentioned countless time the problems for countries in South East Asia, where Singapore is the Apple "gateway", the "system lords" that control how much stock goes to all those poorer South East Asian countries. Their next biggest market is Malaysia, but the stock that Apple resellers in Kuala Lumpur get is pathetic. Kuala Lumpur is just an hour by plane or 3.5hours down the freeway. ...Not even demo models in many cases. I don't know what the Apple resellers in Kuala Lumpur are actually selling ...Interestingly though, after taking currency conversions into account, Macs are slightly 5-10%(?) cheaper in Malaysia than Australia. The best for us outside the US is of course AFAIK buying in the US if one happens to swing by that way.
post #21 of 23
Quote:
Originally Posted by sunilraman

So for your tax deal the tax year is the calendar year, huh...? Can't you just show the paid invoices dates as the evidence? That sucks if you have to have physically received it and delivery confirmation before you can claim it for tax. Where are you now at the moment........... \

Sure, I will probably have to do it that way. But I still hope they will deliver on time, so I can take my new MBP to trip

When I was ordering those items and they told me that I would have to wait 2-3 weeks, I thought it will actually be the worst case scenario. But I see now I was bit too optimistic . If you consider that Apple has relatively limited list of models (compared to other brands), I too wonder what they sell in apple centers...
post #22 of 23
Heh. If you're in the UK, US, Australia, Singapore, Japan, I think stocks are not an issue. Other countries, I can't say. Malaysia is definitely f*cked the last time I checked (several months ago, I wonder how Christmas will be, but it's only celebrated in general by maybe 10% max of the population in major cities (3 or so cities).
post #23 of 23
Shuffles are flying out the window...... Checked two stores at my local mall.
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