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Blu-ray vs. HD DVD (2007) - Page 9

post #321 of 4651
Quote:
Originally Posted by franksargent View Post



Pure speculation here, but it would not surprise me one bit if >1M Xbox HD-DVD addon's were sold this year, given it's pricepoint, the installed base (through the end of this year), and the current attachment rate (2% and plenty of room to grow this year).


I think you're right. Supposedly the HD DVD Promotions Group said they plan to sell 2.5 million HD DVD players. I'm thinking that the Xbox should account for at least 800k. Evidently MS told people at CES that they've shipped 150k Xbox drives. The 92k is estimated and should only be North Am numbers.
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post #322 of 4651
I'm sure the counts of those gaming console attachment to HiDef HT are important, but what's even more interesting is that on the HD-DVD side, the standalone hd-dvd players sales are still growing. However, the BD standalone players aren't becasue PS3 has totally taken over the BD player market and I wonder how long the vendors would keep supporting BD hardwares when all the opened/unopened boxes are just collecting dust on the store shelves. Even with Samsung's new player at $799, it still cost more than both PS3 models. Something interesting would come out of this eventually and I doubt it would be a good news for BD. Well, then it must be a great news for HD-DVD.
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post #323 of 4651
Some random observations.

Earlier this week there were 6 of the XB HD add-ons sitting on the shelf at our local Fred Meyers, so based on this one store and using the voodoo like pronouncements from limited data appearing in this thread, they're in plentiful supply with very little demand for them.

Sony's PS3 price-point is going to force other B-R manufacturers to come out with lower price machines. The economics of scale should mean lower cost for the machine's components and allow this to happen. This will mean more choice for the more price conscious earlier adopter.

There's going to be minor "victories" for both formats causing their radical supporters to claim the other side's format is DOA. Hopefully, by November there'll be a clearer picture, or at least one not as murky, of how this will shake out.

On a pessimistic note, for the next 2 - 3 years I can't see sales figures for HD format players moving out of the niche category into the amount of units sold necessary to be considered, for lack of a better description, a WalMart consumer product. There just aren't enough HDTVs of sufficient size to benefit from a HD player out there now in Joe Consumers' homes to reach a critical mass.

This leads to a question. Sony in the past has shown its willingness to stick with a niche product even though sales haven't been stellar. Will the HD-DVD backers have the will or the deep pockets to do so?
post #324 of 4651
Quote:
Originally Posted by OldCodger73 View Post

On a pessimistic note, for the next 2 - 3 years I can't see sales figures for HD format players moving out of the niche category into the amount of units sold necessary to be considered, for lack of a better description, a WalMart consumer product. There just aren't enough HDTVs of sufficient size to benefit from a HD player out there now in Joe Consumers' homes to reach a critical mass.

Very true. When DVD came out, it was enough of an improvement over VHS -- not just in picture quality, but in terms of convenience and durability too -- that even people with pretty cheap TVs could appreciate the difference.

Laserdiscs existed before DVD, had many of DVDs advantages, but never got out of the niche category. The picture wasn't quite as good as DVD, but certainly it was noticeably better than VHS, and like DVDs, laserdiscs didn't wear out simply in the process of playing them. I'm not quite sure what kept Laserdisc down, unless it was the large size of the discs, or the aftereffects of the early format war with CED discs.

Even without a format war to contend with, I wouldn't expect any HD disc format to take off quite like DVDs did. Throw the HD DVD/Blu-Ray format war on top of the limited market of people who have HD displays, and things slow down even more.
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post #325 of 4651
Quote:
Originally Posted by shetline View Post

Very true. When DVD came out, it was enough of an improvement over VHS -- not just in picture quality, but in terms of convenience and durability too -- that even people with pretty cheap TVs could appreciate the difference.

Laserdiscs existed before DVD, had many of DVDs advantages, but never got out of the niche category. The picture wasn't quite as good as DVD, but certainly it was noticeably better than VHS, and like DVDs, laserdiscs didn't wear out simply in the process of playing them. I'm not quite sure what kept Laserdisc down, unless it was the large size of the discs, or the aftereffects of the early format war with CED discs.

Even without a format war to contend with, I wouldn't expect any HD disc format to take off quite like DVDs did. Throw the HD DVD/Blu-Ray format war on top of the limited market of people who have HD displays, and things slow down even more.

The size of DVD's was definitely a factor in their adoption WRT Laserdiscs. DVD's were the same size as CD's for one, and we all know that vinyl was DOA at that time. Laserdiscs were seen the same as owning vinyl in the consumer's consiousness, IMHO old technology. Due to the same size of CD's/DVD's one player/burner could be used, and I'm sure lower cost of DVD versus Laserdisc was also a factor. And finally shelf space was an issue since the consumer could see more DVD's displayed versus Laserdisc's in a flat 2D space.

So yes, in the case of DVD's, size matters.
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post #326 of 4651
Quote:
Originally Posted by franksargent View Post

The size of DVD's was definitely a factor in their adoption WRT Laserdiscs. DVD's were the same size as CD's for one, and we all know that vinyl was DOA at that time. Laserdiscs were seen the same as owning vinyl in the consumer's consiousness, IMHO old technology. Due to the same size of CD's/DVD's one player/burner could be used, and I'm sure lower cost of DVD versus Laserdisc was also a factor. And finally shelf space was an issue since the consumer could see more DVD's displayed versus Laserdisc's in a flat 2D space.

So yes, in the case of DVD's, size matters.

That's true. I had laserdiscs. The size was ridiculous, but there was more. While picture quality was great, they had to be flipped. Later they had two head players, but still. I remember flipping the damn discs. That sucked. They also got dirty easily. Last, there was never a full content selection.
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post #327 of 4651
I still have and watch the LDs in my movie collection.

At the time, LDs were clearly superior to VHS in picture and sound quality, also they were the only format to offer films in the letterbox format. As has been pointed out, the size was awkward, as was disc flipping and disc changing-- depending on the format each side was either 1/2 or 1 hour in length. The machines were also fairly expensive, especially for the full featured dual head ones. But the killer was the studios were able to do something that they were't able to do with DVDS, they were able to keep the prices of the discs high, $39 and up, with no discounting. But they were definitely the best way to watch movies in-home at the time.

Back to the HD-DVD formats. If there wasn't a format war going on I'd willing buy a player knowing full well that this might never be more than a niche product. But alas, I'm on the sidelines and not regretting it.
post #328 of 4651
Thread Starter 
I still have some, as well as one of the better players made at the time, a Panasonic Prism LX-1000 with autoreverse. Part of what kept laserdiscs down was the cost of the players. At their cheapest, they were still several times the cost of a contemporary VCR. When VCRs were down to $150, LD players were still around $500. That's why DVD players didn't achieve wide adoption until they came close to VCR prices. With autoreverse, flipping on CLV disks wasn't too bad, although there was a definite side break of 15 seconds or so, but CAV disks were the real pain. They only held 30 minutes per side, so a movie might take four sides over two disks to watch. And most people had smaller TVs back then and were more ignorant. If you think the few hold-outs against letterboxed movies today is bad, you should have seen how many people didn't want to lose screen area to the "black bars" they so detested.

edit: OldCodger beat me to it by a few minutes.
post #329 of 4651
Quote:
Originally Posted by OldCodger73 View Post

I still have and watch the LDs in my movie collection.

At the time, LDs were clearly superior to VHS in picture and sound quality, also they were the only format to offer films in the letterbox format. As has been pointed out, the size was awkward, as was disc flipping and disc changing-- depending on the format each side was either 1/2 or 1 hour in length. The machines were also fairly expensive, especially for the full featured dual head ones. But the killer was the studios were able to do something that they were't able to do with DVDS, they were able to keep the prices of the discs high, $39 and up, with no discounting. But they were definitely the best way to watch movies in-home at the time.

Back to the HD-DVD formats. If there wasn't a format war going on I'd willing buy a player knowing full well that this might never be more than a niche product. But alas, I'm on the sidelines and not regretting it.



Exactly!

If there is a definite loser in this format war, i. e. one format becomes "the" standard, with only pricey and limited combo HD media as an option, or with only pricey combo players left to play your dinosaur format as an option, that limits your options going forward with your large legacy "loser" library (LLLL or L^4 (you heard it here first)).

And what was different in the previous format wars, the different physical dimensions of the media, isn't there this time!
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post #330 of 4651
So what are currently the best Blu-Ray and HD-DVD players on the market right now? I've been reading this thread from the beginning, But it seems to me that the 2 formats have been argued over so much, yet we're not really comparing the players themselves.
post #331 of 4651
Quote:
Originally Posted by smashbrosfan View Post

So what are currently the best Blu-Ray and HD-DVD players on the market right now? I've been reading this thread from the beginning, But it seems to me that the 2 formats have been argued over so much, yet we're not really comparing the players themselves.

For Blu-ray you have the...

Playstation 3
Sony BDP-S1
Panasonic DMPBD10
Pioneer BDP-HD1
Philips BDP9000
Samsung BD-P1000

For HD DVD you have the...

Toshiba HD-A1
Toshiba HD-A2
Toshiba HD-XA1
Toshiba HD-XA2
Xbox360 add-on (developed by Toshiba)
RCA HDV5000

Notice the lack of support of HD DVD. You can't really miss it with basically one hardware (besides RCA) manufaturer spewing out players in an act of desperation because they know that the industry is not on their side.

As far as the picture quality you get from both, you'll get a pretty decent picture of either format, but you get greater variety in the brands you get to choose from in Blu-ray, along with a greater variety of movies you get to choose from, along with greater durability, and greater throughput.
post #332 of 4651
Quote:
Originally Posted by smashbrosfan View Post

So what are currently the best Blu-Ray and HD-DVD players on the market right now? I've been reading this thread from the beginning, But it seems to me that the 2 formats have been argued over so much, yet we're not really comparing the players themselves.

I'll try to help, but this is off the top of my head, others who have ACTUALLY bought one (or have done more research) would provide better assistance;

PS3 BR console ($500/$600)
Xbox HD-DVD addon (~$180 street, hookup to PC and use Cyberlink's PowerDVD SW (~$100)).
Sony BR player (~$800 (?))
Panasonic BR drive (~$400 (?), not yet released)
Toshiba 2G HD-DVD player (~$300 (?), name brand player, not yet released (?))

It's still pretty early in the ball game IMHO, not much to choose from in terms of HW/pricepoints.

EDIT - Thanks marzetta7, I knew one of you "regulars" would respond!
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post #333 of 4651
Quote:
Originally Posted by smashbrosfan View Post

So what are currently the best Blu-Ray and HD-DVD players on the market right now? I've been reading this thread from the beginning, But it seems to me that the 2 formats have been argued over so much, yet we're not really comparing the players themselves.

Well... the best HiDef format player with the best known spec is the toshiba HD-XA2 HD-DVD player equipped with Realta REON HQV processor on HDMI 1.3 circuitry. Which not only does great job with HD-DVD playback, but is one of the best SD-DVD upconverter on the market as well.

The best BD player currently on the market is PS3 or Sony BD player probably because it was the latest to the market, which is equipped with HDMI 1.3 circuitry but not sure about the video processor involved. The PS3 however does not upconvert games or SD-DVD. So, Sony player probably has the best spec as the complete BD player which also upconverts SD-DVD, but not sure how it perform.

Both are priced at $999 MSRP.

Edited: Oops... made a mistake on Sony player spec. It does not support HDMI 1.3. Only PS3 is equipped with HDMI 1.3. So, cross Sony player off the best BD player list, it's not better in spec than PS3. No wonder no one buys standalone BD players.

The complete list borrowed and updated.
For Blu-ray you have the...

Playstation 3 (best seller/only seller)
Sony BDP-S1
Panasonic DMPBD10
Pioneer BDP-HD1
Philips BDP9000
Samsung BD-P1000

For HD DVD you have the...

Toshiba HD-A1
Toshiba HD-A2
Toshiba HD-XA1
Toshiba HD-XA2
Xbox360 add-on (developed by Toshiba)
RCA HDV5000
Onkyo (announced at CES)
Meridian (announced at CES)
China/Taiwanese OEM (announced at CES)
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post #334 of 4651
Quote:
Originally Posted by DonnyG View Post

Less expensive disks, less burn time from an app like iDVD. What else...

Incorrect, Blu-ray's discs are the same price and at times lower than HD DVD, nice try to spread the FUD though.

Blu-ray has a higher transfer speed (up to 17.15 MB/Sec) than does HD DVD so again you are stating something that is untrue in terms of less burn time...

http://www.emedialive.com/articles/r...rticleid=11404

What else? We'll it depends on "what else" you'd like me to refute so easily there Mr. Misinformed or is it Mr. Misinformer?

In any case, how are you going to burn something with HD DVD inside an app like iDVD when they have yet to provide HD DVD burners? Sound like a hardware issue there big guy. Blu-ray has he burners though, just FYI.
post #335 of 4651
Quote:
Originally Posted by bitemymac View Post

Well... the best HiDef format player with the best known spec is the toshiba HD-XA2 HD-DVD player equipped with Realta REON HQV processor on HDMI 1.3 circuitry. Which not only does great job with HD-DVD playback, but is one of the best SD-DVD upconverter on the market as well.

The best BD player currently on the market is PS3 or Sony BD player probably because it was the latest to the market, which is equipped with HDMI 1.3 circuitry but not sure about the video processor involved. The PS3 however does not upconvert games or SD-DVD. So, Sony player probably has the best spec as the complete BD player which also upconverts SD-DVD, but not sure how it perform.

Both are priced at $999 MSRP.


The complete list borrowed and updated.
For Blu-ray you have the...

Playstation 3 (best seller/only seller)
Sony BDP-S1
Panasonic DMPBD10
Pioneer BDP-HD1
Philips BDP9000
Samsung BD-P1000

For HD DVD you have the...

Toshiba HD-A1
Toshiba HD-A2
Toshiba HD-XA1
Toshiba HD-XA2
Xbox360 add-on (developed by Toshiba)
RCA HDV5000

Did ya miss the part about "on the market right now" part. Updated.
post #336 of 4651
Wow, thanks for the quick responses everyone. I'll check these players out.

I'll be frank and say that as a college student, I can't realistically afford the best HD equipment. Heck, I don't even have an HDTV. The closest I can get at the moment is using my 1680x1050 widescreen monitor with my Xbox 360.

So even though I'm personally on the Blu-Ray side myself, I'll probably end up geting the 360 add-on... Either that or wait for Blu-Ray drives to be standard on the MacBooks. But Since I just invested in a Core 2 Duo MBP, that won't be any time soon.
post #337 of 4651
Quote:
Originally Posted by smashbrosfan View Post

Wow, thanks for the quick responses everyone. I'll check these players out.

I'll be frank and say that as a college student, I can't realistically afford the best HD equipment. Heck, I don't even have an HDTV. The closest I can get at the moment is using my 1680x1050 widescreen monitor with my Xbox 360.

So even though I'm personally on the Blu-Ray side myself, I'll probably end up geting the 360 add-on... Either that or wait for Blu-Ray drives to be standard on the MacBooks. But Since I just invested in a Core 2 Duo MBP, that won't be any time soon.

Well... if that's the case, your screen probably isn't HDCP compliant, and the best source of connection would be VGA to view HD contents. Hence, xbox 360 addon would be the best solution for now for your display.
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post #338 of 4651
Quote:
Originally Posted by shetline View Post

Okay, now it's all over for Blu-Ray

Adult Film Industry Chooses HD-DVD

And yet the FUD continues. No suprise here. People need to remember this...

Vivid to Bring First Adult Title to Blu-ray

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/sh...ay,_HD_DVD/329

Also, let's be informed here guys, Blu-ray IS INDEED going to have your porn for those who are adament about it...

http://video.msn.com/v/us/fv/fv.htm?...=06/64&fg=copy

Bottom line...

-Blu-Ray has the momentum
-Vivid is putting out porn on Blu-Ray
-Replicators are making it difficult, but it can be done (Vivid found a way)
-90% of Vivid's sales used to be from DVD. Now it's dropped to 40%.
post #339 of 4651
Quote:
Originally Posted by bitemymac View Post

Well... if that's the case, your screen probably isn't HDCP compliant, and the best source of connection would be VGA to view HD contents. Hence, xbox 360 addon would be the best solution for now for your display.

Totally clueless here, but what are the options (right now on the street) for HDCP compatibility on the desktop space (Mac or PC)?

I'd like to think about playing HD media on the desktop at 1080p. I'm seriously interested in a 23"/24" 1080p LCD display that has HDMI and is HDCP compliant.

I've looked at the BenQ 24" LCD, but I am waiting for the 1.1 firmware version to hit the streets.

Do I need any other HW (Mac or PC) to play HD media content on the desktop?

Thanks!
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post #340 of 4651
Quote:
Originally Posted by marzetta7 View Post

And yet the FUD continues. No suprise here. People need to remember this...

Vivid to Bring First Adult Title to Blu-ray

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/sh...ay,_HD_DVD/329

Also, let's be informed here guys, Blu-ray IS INDEED going to have your porn for those who are adament about it...

http://video.msn.com/v/us/fv/fv.htm?...=06/64&fg=copy

Bottom line...

-Blu-Ray has the momentum
-Vivid is putting out porn on Blu-Ray
-Replicators are making it difficult, but it can be done (Vivid found a way)
-90% of Vivid's sales used to be from DVD. Now it's dropped to 40%.

Well as an admitted pr0n fanboi, when I hear the word Vivid, why I, why I, ROTFLMAO!

But seriously, and I could be very wrong here, but IMHO HD pr0n isn't enough of a delta in PQ (and I've seen some 1080i and alot of 720p ) to the point it will drive significant pr0n sales in the short/medium term.
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post #341 of 4651
Quote:
Originally Posted by franksargent View Post

Totally clueless here, but what are the options (right now on the street) for HDCP compatibility on the desktop space (Mac or PC)?

I'd like to think about playing HD media on the desktop at 1080p. I'm seriously interested in a 23"/24" 1080p LCD display that has HDMI and is HDCP compliant.

I've looked at the BenQ 24" LCD, but I am waiting for the 1.1 firmware version to hit the streets.

Do I need any other HW (Mac or PC) to play HD media content on the desktop?

Thanks!

There isn't much HDCP options on the displays right now. I'm using 1080p Westinghouse 37" LCD with my HTPC in my bedroom which covers HDCP. However, HDCP compliance also requires your video card to be compliant when playing HD optical media contents. The most cost effective would be just using VGA which is almost as good as any digital connection. At least, via VGA, you can enjoy all HD content playback w/out HDCP compliance. I have two LCD's connected to my HTPC, both DVI and VGA, and I don't see much difference.

So, if you do get a xbox 360 add on for your PC/macintel..... you would need:
1) set up bootcamp or boot off WinXP/Vista.
2) buy HD-DVD player software (powerDVD 6.5 with HD playback kit and above).
3) when use DVI/HDMI, then you'd also need a HDCP compliant Video card ($120 minimum).
4) when using VGA, no HDCP compliance required.
5) Use THX optimizer to get to adjust "brightness" and "contrast" at least.
6) need King Kong HD-DVD movie (promo pack had it included with xbox 360 add on) to kick off your HD experience.

Anyway, prices on the LCD TV front has gone down enough that you don't have to pay much more for a 1080p 37" LCD TV vs. the 24 wide screen LCD. Just be wise and wait for a coupon or a special deal.

Edited: here's a good place to start:
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=775177
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post #342 of 4651
Quote:
Originally Posted by bitemymac View Post

Well... if that's the case, your screen probably isn't HDCP compliant, and the best source of connection would be VGA to view HD contents. Hence, xbox 360 addon would be the best solution for now for your display.

Yeah. The monitor supports VGA and DVI. It's the Viewsonic 2025wm. It was a cheap monitor. If only the Xbox 360 had a DVI port... lol.
post #343 of 4651
Quote:
Originally Posted by bitemymac View Post

There isn't much HDCP options on the displays right now. I'm using 1080p Westinghouse 37" LCD with my HTPC in my bedroom which covers HDCP. However, HDCP compliance also requires your video card to be compliant when playing HD optical media contents. The most cost effective would be just using VGA which is almost as good as any digital connection. At least, via VGA, you can enjoy all HD content playback w/out HDCP compliance. I have two LCD's connected to my HTPC, both DVI and VGA, and I don't see much difference.

So, if you do get a xbox 360 add on for your PC/macintel..... you would need:
1) set up bootcamp or boot off WinXP/Vista.
2) buy HD-DVD player software (powerDVD 6.5 with HD playback kit and above).
3) when use DVI/HDMI, then you'd also need a HDCP compliant Video card ($120 minimum).
4) when using VGA, no HDCP compliance required.
5) Use THX optimizer to get to adjust "brightness" and "contrast" at least.
6) need King Kong HD-DVD movie (promo pack had it included with xbox 360 add on) to kick off your HD experience.

Anyway, prices on the LCD TV front has gone down enough that you don't have to pay much more for a 1080p 37" LCD TV vs. the 24 wide screen LCD. Just be wise and wait for a coupon or a special deal.

Edited: here's a good place to start:
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=775177

Yeah the Westy, I've been reading alot about it over at [H]ard|Forum™ have you ever been to their website?

The Westy thread over there had links to a midwest electronics chain (forget name) where it's street price is like ~$800+tax, it looks like a gamerz favorite! Someone over there has a photo of a Westy sitting in an IKEA Jerker workstation, which I just happen to have (IKEA).

BTW thanks for the info/link (I've been there a bunch of times, and I just added it to my HDTV bookmarks for future reference). VGA, does it also work like this with component inputs?
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post #344 of 4651
Quote:
Originally Posted by franksargent View Post

VGA, does it also work like this with component inputs?

I would think component would also work, but most TV's have overscan turned on by default via component, and most HDTV's have them on by default on HDMI or even DVI inputs. One of the reason I got a Westy over the other LCD brands is because of the overscan or lack there of. Most LCD TV models will have such issues unless it has a user menu available to turn off, but most don't.
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post #345 of 4651
Quote:
Originally Posted by bitemymac View Post

I would think component would also work, but most TV's have overscan turned on by default via component, and most HDTV's have them on by default on HDMI or even DVI inputs. One of the reason I got a Westy over the other LCD brands is because of the overscan or lack there of. Most LCD TV models will have such issues unless it has a user menu available to turn off, but most don't.

Yeah I think you're right, if I go that way I'll stick with VGA (forgot it was an analog DB15 display connector). But that's still a few months down the road at the earliest, whatever I do.
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post #346 of 4651
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by marzetta7 View Post

Blu-ray has a higher transfer speed (up to 17.15 MB/Sec) than does HD DVD so again you are stating something that is untrue in terms of less burn time...

Well, you have to understand what he means by less burn time. Sure, Blu-ray has higher transfer rate, but HD DVD has the benefit of lower capacity, hence less burn time!
post #347 of 4651
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kolchak View Post

Well, you have to understand what he means by less burn time. Sure, Blu-ray has higher transfer rate, but HD DVD has the benefit of lower capacity, hence less burn time!

Ouch.
post #348 of 4651
Quote:
Originally Posted by bitemymac View Post

At least, via VGA, you can enjoy all HD content playback w/out HDCP compliance.

Well no...at least according to MS they don't expect HD playback if the studios turn on the derez bit in anything but Vista using HDCP enabled hardware. The HD playback software should see the ICT flag and downrez to 540p is the studios turn that on.

But heck...by 2010 you should have all new gear anyway so this is more of a nit than anything else.

DVI might get no picture tho' without HDCP. Analog VGA is good for a while.

Vinea
post #349 of 4651
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinea View Post

Well no...at least according to MS they don't expect HD playback if the studios turn on the derez bit in anything but Vista using HDCP enabled hardware. The HD playback software should see the ICT flag and downrez to 540p is the studios turn that on.

But heck...by 2010 you should have all new gear anyway so this is more of a nit than anything else.

DVI might get no picture tho' without HDCP. Analog VGA is good for a while.

Vinea

Yup, that was the iniital agreement, but I dont' think any of the studios on HD-DVD side have implemented yet. Well, HD-DVD is the only region free format as well. As you've said, I think 2010 may be the cut off point. Well, all the xbox360 folks only have analog outs for the current models, so this will be interesting later. I was reading something regarding how studios does not have the right on the analog contents to implement on the derez bit or something in that development. So, if that's true then the derez bit may not get implemented at all. Well, how it get implemented on Vista may be it's own problem and using winxp may be the work around?.
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post #350 of 4651
Quote:
Originally Posted by smashbrosfan View Post

So what are currently the best Blu-Ray and HD-DVD players on the market right now? I've been reading this thread from the beginning, But it seems to me that the 2 formats have been argued over so much, yet we're not really comparing the players themselves.

The reason you're not seeing any comparisons is B-R/HD-DVD ownership among the people who do most of the posting here extolling one format over the other is almost nil. You should check out the Blu-Ray/HD-DVD boards on AVSforum for information about the different players. Be forewarned, though, that some people on those boards are very rabid about their chosen format. One of the interesting things is that many people on those boards own both formats-- definitely affluent early adopters.

I'm on the sidelines but if I had to buy one of the players today it would be the PS3. It gets consistently good reviews. It's only disadvantages are it's reportedly not an outstanding upscaler player for standard DVDs-- a firmware fix is rumored to address this in the future-- and you either have to use the game controller or buy an optional under $30 remote. The remote is bluetooth so existing universal remotes, like the widely used Harmony 880, won't work with the PS3.

One thing to consider if you're using one of the player in a home theatre setup, is that the best possible sound is via HDMI and most recievers older than a year or two don't have HDMI inputs. You can still get DD 5.1 and DTS over the optical connectors, though.
post #351 of 4651
Quote:
Originally Posted by franksargent View Post



Pure speculation here, but it would not surprise me one bit if >1M Xbox HD-DVD addon's were sold this year, given it's pricepoint, the installed base (through the end of this year), and the current attachment rate (2% and plenty of room to grow this year).



now hold on, the 360 hasnt sold 10million players WORLD WIDE and assuming it DOES (with an attachment rate of 2%) by years end thats STILL only 200,000 HD-DVD addon's

however if mickysoft continue to shift on average 50,000 PER MONTH thats STILL only 700,000 units including the numbers for last year.. assuming they can KEEP shifting 50,000 players.

so based on the FACTS so far they are hardly likely to reach the 1 million figure SORRY.


AT LAST somthing PROVABLE with math on this thread (sorry if someone else has already pointed this out)
post #352 of 4651
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trendannoyer View Post

now hold on, the 360 hasnt sold 10million players WORLD WIDE and assuming it DOES (with an attachment rate of 2%) by years end thats STILL only 200,000 HD-DVD addon's

however if mickysoft continue to shift on average 50,000 PER MONTH thats STILL only 700,000 units including the numbers for last year.. assuming they can KEEP shifting 50,000 players.

so based on the FACTS so far they are hardly likely to reach the 1 million figure SORRY.


AT LAST somthing PROVABLE with math on this thread (sorry if someone else has already pointed this out)

We don't have the official MS numbers yet (do we?), but the estimates were for 10.4M at the end of 4th quarter (12/31/06). Estimates are for 13M-15M by the end of 2nd quarter '07. We also know what the adoption rate WAS (~2%), not what it will be at the end of this year, it could go go up, it could go down, or remain about the same. Your assumption is that it remains the same, my assumption is that it will go up. For my assumption to play out about a ~6% adoption rate is needed (assuming ~20M aggragate sales volume of the Xbox 360 by the end of '07).

I did preface my remark with, "Pure speculation" did you miss that part of my comment?

I've thrown a dart into the future, do you care to engage in "Pure speculation" as to the number of Xbox DVD addons will be sold in total for 2007 (i. e. greater than X amount) that "would not surprise you one bit?"

You need to also remember that the HD-DVD addon was released on November 7th of 2006 (US introduction, later dates elsewhere).
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post #353 of 4651
Quote:
Originally Posted by franksargent View Post

I did preface my remark with, "Pure speculation" did you miss that part of my comment?

nope

did you miss the "assume" wording in mine?


i didnt realise the projected figure was so high.

Sony need to get a shift on really.

I find it all a bit odd, to be on a Mac forum watching supposed mac users spuring on the adoption of a microsoft product (360) its bewildering
post #354 of 4651
from a link somewhere above

//Jack Tretton puts a somewhat sunnier spin on the numbers: "Not only did consumers drive records for PlayStation 3, they also validated the excellent value represented by PlayStation 2 and the entertainment versatility of PSP. These sales figures bode very well for the company heading into 2007."//

ive just had a thought, sony have 3 products on offer the PS2 PSP and PS3

Nintendo the Wii and DS

microsoft are putting all their efforts into just one product the 360.

if you only have one product to push, anyone interested in your brand only has one way to spend their money!

interesting?
post #355 of 4651
post #356 of 4651
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trendannoyer View Post

nope

did you miss the "assume" wording in mine?


i didnt realise the projected figure was so high.

Sony need to get a shift on really.

I find it all a bit odd, to be on a Mac forum watching supposed mac users spuring on the adoption of a microsoft product (360) its bewildering

I don't know why people want to look at things narrowly when discussing the HD format war. Everything is a factor in adoption rates, including the console war, because of Xbox (HD-DVD, earliest release), PS3 (Blu-Ray), and Wii (no HD, hot seller).

PS - I stated "Your assumption ..."
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post #357 of 4651
Quote:
Originally Posted by franksargent View Post

We don't have the official MS numbers yet (do we?), but the estimates were for 10.4M at the end of 4th quarter (12/31/06).

BTW, I believe the estimates were for 10.4 M "shipped" just like Sony "shipped" 1 million consoles, which doesn't necessarily correlate to sold.
post #358 of 4651
Quote:
Originally Posted by marzetta7 View Post

BTW, I believe the estimates were for 10.4 M "shipped" just like Sony "shipped" 1 million consoles, which doesn't necessarily correlate to sold.

Yeah what's up with that? Does anyone know where to get data for consoles sold in Europe from? I can confirm that they have done 4.5 million in North America and about 120,000 in Japan. Also saw that they have over 100,000 in Australia as of mid December. Being generous, that still leaves 5.65 million units to account for. Through September, it was stated that they only had 1.7 million in Europe. Smells fishy to me and it doesn't help that the only place I can find the 10.4 million number is someone quoting or referring to a Microsoft exec, especially Gates.
post #359 of 4651
Quote:
Originally Posted by liquidjin View Post

Yeah what's up with that? Does anyone know where to get data for consoles sold in Europe from? I can confirm that they have done 4.5 million in North America and about 120,000 in Japan. Also saw that they have over 100,000 in Australia as of mid December. Being generous, that still leaves 5.65 million units to account for. Through September, it was stated that they only had 1.7 million in Europe. Smells fishy to me and it doesn't help that the only place I can find the 10.4 million number is someone quoting or referring to a Microsoft exec, especially Gates.

Guys,

I got that number from wiki, AFAIK all numbers from wiki are MS numbers (as I would assume all PS3 numbers are Sony's, or all Wii numbers are Nintendo's), since they are the only ones who would know what was shipped regionally/globally. And wiki does quote the MS keynote at CES (actually it's Robbert J. "Robbie" Bach of MS (President, Entertainment and Devices Division) who made the "We've sold 10.4 million consoles in 37 countries." statement). Which I would take to be a true statement at the MS end of the chain. Who would really know what the numbers are at the end user end of the chain is the $64K question, market research being what it is (polling vendors and extrapolating the data regionally/globally to estimate end user units sold).

All I'm saying is that I drew a line in the sand for the Xbox 360 HD-DVD add-on through the end of 2007 (sold at the MS end of the chain). That's it. We can all draw our "line in the sand" as it were, and if enough of us do that, one of us is bound to be right.

Someone who comments on my SWAG, using a very short historic trend (2%) and extrapolating through 2007 from a US launch date of November 7th 2006, is IMHO making a low estimate of potential sales. And we could dissect launch dates and units "in transit" and PDF's all night long, but to what end? It's all just a guess, my SWAG is probabilisticly +2 sigma (another SWAG).

So basically, all I asked was,

Make a guess, or give it a rest!
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post #360 of 4651
Quote:
Originally Posted by franksargent View Post


Someone who comments on my SWAG, using a very short historic trend (2%) and extrapolating through 2007 from a US launch date of November 7th 2006, is IMHO making a low estimate of potential sales. And we could dissect launch dates and units "in transit" and PDF's all night long, but to what end? It's all just a guess, my SWAG is probabilisticly +2 sigma (another SWAG).

So basically, all I asked was,

Make a guess, or give it a rest!

but the short historic trend was what YOU were going on as well... ??

and i used YOUR numbers and did the math and the math didnt add up to what you were saying..

so whats your problem with that? your math or your formula?

Quote:
Originally Posted by franksargent View Post

We can all draw our "line in the sand" as it were, and if enough of us do that, one of us is bound to be right.

agreed, but its all just pissing in the wind isnt it

as i keep saying, give it about 6 months into 2007 and a clear trend for the PS3 and Blu-Ray players AND the 360 addon will be more apparent. then we will have a clearer picture of what is or is not likely to be the outcome.

we will also know how many studios are pressing porn and on what format.

and we will also know how many exclusive games titles sony are going to let themselves bleed and how much more they can stuff things up.


this thread is already as stale as the 2006 one had got at page 30, its all a pissing contest.

the HD-DVD people only talking to the HD-DVD people and the Blu-Ray only talking to the Blu-ray people... unless its to slag the other off for an opposing view... its really disturbing to read... at least before the formats were released OPINION actually counted for something, in 6 months time OPINION WONT count.

bring it on! cos im bored!

-----

i have no argument with you personally frank, just your maths
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