Blu-ray vs. HD DVD (2007) - Page 115

Relax OldCodger, I was joking with the picture and about the "neutral" comment. Anyhow, so you really think Universal and Paramount will try to hold on less than 20% of the market which will assuredly dwindle to less than 10% as more people realize they can get 6 out of 8 studios movies from 1 format? HD DVD has roughly 35% share now with three studios. Without Warner, this will more than likely go to about 20% or below.

And you somehow think other studios won't fall in line as they see the other format grow exponentially in install base while the other flounders?

I say I have to respectfully disagree with you on this one.

I don't?...I'm spreading Microsoft FUD am I?...no, it is you who doesn't know what you are talking about...

http://www.hdtvuk.tv/2007/06/microsoft_predi.html


and straight from the horses mouth, Bill Gates...


But I'm sure there are other reasons why Microsoft chose HD DVD and the rest of the entire in industry chose Blu-ray.

I wonder what is the point of agreeing/disagreeing with someone's fantasy?


It is not going to happen. The day PS3 beats Wii in sales will be the day PS3 will help win the HDM format war.

That will most certainly happen... if one format or the other actually sees exponential growth. I've been following this thread for quite awhile. Occasionally I skip over a page or two if I've fallen behind so I could've missed some important facts. However, off the top of my head, it seems to me that the US Blu-ray install base has floated around the 3 million mark since a few months after the PS3 came out.

Unless the "last physical format" he's talking about is plain ol' DVD, those comments don't support your claims. And he's right; HD DVD or Blu-Ray will be the last physical format, but we still need them in the interim if we are to enjoy high-definition movies and games for the next 10 years.

Looks like B1G1 deal at amazon is really making people spend money on HDM. The HD-DVD current selections are not that great, but the cheaper prices are making it worth a purchase. If amazon had offered B1G1 on some decent HDM titles, it would really have taken off. But the long term indication is that the HDM prices have to settle down to SD-DVD level for HDM's to be a prefered choice over SD-DVD, since lower prices seem to be the real catalyst to HDM adoption.

Anyway for the time being, B1G1 deal is a great opportunity for HDM supporters to build up thier HDM library.

This holday season have already been great for my HDM hobby.

so.. which line is which?

haha...

Does it really matter?... Both HDM formats are doing quite well at amazon with B1G1 promotion deals from both formats.

But if you must know, the blue line represents Blu-Ray and the black line is for HD-DVD.

Actually.... that was what Sony projected earlier this year, but it recently passed 3 million mark about a month ago, including 2.5 million PS3 + 400K Standalones.

ah thanks. I must be remembering projections as actual numbers.

3 million that's about the population of Chicago. Not bad.

Yup... that's alot of units. But the majority of the PS3 owners use the hardware only as a game console. Therefore, the actually installed base does not equal to user base as a Blu-Ray HDM application. As you know, all the PS3 games also come on Blu-Ray optical disc.

Oh, I forgot, the newer PS3 packages include Blu-Ray movie and would get limited Blu-Ray HDM play time if the user decides to watch their free Blu-Ray movie.

Corey, yes it does. Read it again. This time in its entirety.

Gamers Ripe for High-End A/V Systems, Research Shows

Nielsen Research Group and THX find that gamers use surround sound systems, high-end video products.

http://www.cepro.com/article/gamers_...arch_shows/D1/


I think this gives us a good idea as to how many users of the PS3 watch movies...

Doing the math... 51% of roughly 2,000,000 PS3 owners watching Blu-rays + 400,000 standalones = 1,420,000 Blu-ray watchers vs 750,000 HD-DVD watchers...

Look familiar? 1.89:1 and this is only in the US. The picture is worse for HD DVD internationally.

Well.. If I do your math on your stats....

47% of 9 million xbox360 owners = about 4+ million already in the states.... does it make sense?

The real question is how many of the 51% watch Blu-Ray HDM vs. SD-DVD and what would be the true ratio of that from the total PS3 owners including 18 yrs old and under.

Bad source and bad stats...... not a credible study at all. I'm sure Sony would dream of such data to be true and would endorse spreading such news with every penny.

I just bought my PS3, and I'm already building a BR collection. Actually I know more people that bought it as a BR player than I do as a game system. Although I know many 30 somethings and above.

Funny you mention that... I noticed in an ad this weekend that a Sony brand stand-alone BluRay player was being sold for $399. All it will do is play movies ... why would anyone buy that unit when, for the SAME PRICE, they can buy a PS3 that is infinitely more functional? (OK, so "infinitely" might be just a bit of an exaggeration.)

That's a bit like trying to sell a basic Subaru Impreza for the same price as a WRX-STi ... who's gonna opt for the less capable version? (And yes, I know I'm preaching to the choir on this forum.)

Marz, wouldn't it make more sense to have a profitable business plan in place for the next 5-10 years until downloadable HD movies can become a reality, instead of spending millions simply to (allegedly) confuse the consumer and stall the adoption of HDM? Yes, yes it would. Won't the HDM players reach $99 pricetags within 1-2 years time, essentially replacing regular DVD players in all stores and leaving the consumer no choice but to go home with an HDM player whether they wanted one or not? Yes, yes they will. Since Sony is Microsoft's number one competitor in the console realm, and since Sony banked their entire share of the console market on forcing the adoption of their next video format, wouldn't it be in Microsoft's best interest NOT to aid Sony in achieving their goals? HD DVD being the anti-Sony is reason enough for Microsoft to genuinely support and bolster HD DVD. And hell, what if HD DVD won? Then what? Is Microsoft going to take everyone's players away and make them download movies on their computers instead?

Microsoft supporting Blu-Ray would be like Apple including Windows as their default OS. It's got nothing to do with delaying HDM adoption until Microsoft "perfects" movie downloads. Lord knows Microsoft couldn't perfect anything whether they had 5 or 5,000 years. The only company who should have a vested interest in delaying HDM adoption for internet-delivered high definition is Apple. You know, that company whose audio/video devices and software can actually be used by normal people.

Next you're going to try and tell me Windows Vista is just a half-hearted ploy by Microsoft to stall the adoption of Windows XP until they perfect this other super-awesome operating system they really want people to buy instead.

i'm right there with you man!
i have 1 PS3 game and am going to use it primarily for blu-ray.
on the other hand i've got a wii with a ton of games!

not to rain on anyones parade, but isn't physical media a dying bread anyway?
how long do you guys project until we see the majority of movies go download only?
5 years, 10 years?

I think movie rentals are definitely going the way of on-demand streaming or DRM'd download. Netflix is already experimenting with On-Demand movies for their subscribers that use Windows. They're a far cry from HD, but it's a start.

However, I think there will always be a market for physical media movies for purchase. I know that when I buy the Star Wars trilogy for the last time (if that ever happens) I want it to be on something that I can keep. I don't want to depend on a hard disk or a single device's memory. Whether it's a Blu-ray disc or a dedicated flash chip or something else doesn't matter. I want a physical possession to own.

Of course, if that physical media is so full of DRM that I can't play it without MS's permission in triplicate anyway then the point is sort of moot.

Gosh M$ are such pretty and innocent players that they can do no wrong, and THIS on a Mac site.

So which is it? 10 years or 4?


What happens when the Analogue signal gets switched off next year? whats happening to the bandwidth that will be freed up? you REALLY think things wont change in regards to Data delivery?


Have Sony said they will keep the PS3 up and running for 10 years as they have done with their last TWO consoles?

Assuming somewhere between 4 to 10 years (apparently in your oppinion) before data delivery speeds are high enough for game and movie download, then Sonys "PS4" will arrive at some point during that time frame.

What I say about didgital delivery is VERY reasonable.

oh, and on HDD sizes, you REALLY think there isnt a way round that? you really think that HDD sizes will stay the same for the next 4-10 years?

MIcrosoft does plenty wrong. I was anti-Redmond while you Sonytards thought that getting a pink Walkman in the '80's was revolutionary.

But when I bash Redmond, it's for their substantial misdeeds and not some imagined conspiratorial nonsense about wanting to rule the world of downloads.

Forcing computer makers to pay for a Windows licence for each computer whether or not they loaded it was a downright despicable thing to do to drown out any competition.

But backing the HD-DVD standard to give the Xbox a competitive advantage against the PS3 is not threatening, it's simply good business sense (for them, I mean.)

Anyone who think that Microsoft is the same giant they used to be isn't paying attention. The idea that they are spreading money around to stall the use of discs in favour of downloading is ludicrous.

Microsoft cannot hinder the use of HD media all by itself. And they are smart enough to know that. Even if the download market matured overnight, there are half a dozen companies (Apple, TIVO etc.) that would compete fiercely with Redmond and have a good chance of winning.

Warner has once again denied claims that they've decided to go Blu-Ray exclusive. And Sony's Stringer is back to saying the format war is far from over. Seems if Warner was honestly going Blu-Ray exclusive in a few weeks, Stringer would know about it, and thusly would be far less modest about his format's lead over HD DVD.


It's all guesswork Walter. In major cities, it's very possible we may see 25GB downloads which can finish in an hour within four years. But that kind of bandwidth won't be widespread enough for downloadable delivery to be the ONLY option for consumers for at least 10 years. That is my guess.

Considering the current xBox 360 ships with a 20GB drive and the PS3 with an 40 or 80GB drive, I imagine a terabyte of storage will be about the maximum both companies will be able to afford to put in their next-generation consoles, which should arrive in 3-4 years too soon to abandon good ol' store-bought optical media.

Interesting.... I can't think of any corporation doing things right for anyone but themselves. Even Apple screwed it's die hard supporters with initial PowerPC implementation in the 90's, then again when G4's ran out of steam to compete with p4/athlon.

I had created my account here with my PM6100 & PM9600, hence the bitter username.

It's easy to get caught up on ethics of this and that corporations, but the bottomline is that corporations are here to make money and that's all it's good for. And ethics and money do not mix very well.

Nice insult doesn't really add any weight to what you say.


Even when the imagined words come out of the mouths of the highups in M$?

ok, you know best


agreed.


So why are they including movie downloads as part of the xbox live package? or have you made the mistake of falling for M$ own "give the customer a choice" line ie HD-DVD add-on but have movie downloads as well? I guess you have, which is great because thats just what they want.


M$ are a joke to those who can see, but don't let the sleeping dragon fool you into getting too close, as you seem to be. It is not the last time they spend their way into a market xbox is bleeding cash, so is zune. but according to you thats something they don't do.. ok.


THATS WHY they teamed up with Toshiba to push its proprietary disc format that no other manufacturers want to touch because they can't see how to make a profit out of it. Sound familiar?

Even if M$ didn't pay out the 150 million and it was all Toshiba's money its still a foolish way to run a business ie into the ground. at this rate NBC handing back cash to advertisers looks similarly foolish.

Once again, what do you think Warner was going to say considering that we're in the middle of a holiday shopping season?

Also, again you are off the mark with Stringer. True, I'll give you that Stringer probably needs to just shut his yap, but to give the false picture of his and/or Sony's commitement to Blu-ray is just simple FUD on your part...

Stringer: "We remain totally committed to Blu-ray"

http://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=745

Um, I never questioned or doubted Sony's commitment to Blu-Ray. I just find it interesting, and rather telling, that Sony's CEO does not consider the HDM war as in-the-bag for Blu-Ray as some Blu-Ray fans do.

And you're right about Warner; they're not going to let on ahead of time whether or not they're going format-exclusive. Most certainly, just because a company denies something doesn't mean it isn't true. We'll see how the Potter numbers fair next week, but I'd be surprised if HD DVD didn't sell enough to justify the cost of continuing to author in both formats.

Profitable? Like trying to ensure that HDi and their VC-1 codec is on next generation discs profitable? Because there's certainly no profit being made on the hardware side for Toshiba who has certainly priced out any competion in selling their players at a loss (you can look at Onkyo who recently stopped any production of HD DVD players because of this). And even then, HD DVD is more of a backup plan to the true reality that even Bill Gates talks about--that they wan't everything streamed from a hard disk...and you can bet your tuckus that their going to have their licenses, codecs, interactivity code, DRM, etc. all over it. So, yeah, it totally makes sense that they are stifling the high-def opitical market, as downloads are their ultimate goal and where they would get the most PROFIT from in that they'll sell consumers movies via their download fees.


There you go again, as if consumers are robbed of their agency. No, consumers always have a choice. And unfortunately, due to Microsoft and Toshiba taking on the rest of the industry most consumers are going to wait it out until a clear victor emerges or not buy at all making the market niche, especially if it drags on 1-2 years time. This will leave DVD as the optical format going forward (also a win for Toshiba as they have many vested royalties in the format), with...you guessed it "downloads" being offered in high def with yours truly, Microsoft waiting in the wing for those interested consumers.


First, Sony isn't forcing anything, again, consumers have the agency to buy or not to buy the PS3. Second, yes it is in Microsoft's best interest not to aid Sony, but is it in their best interest to also stagnate the optical market...why yes, yes it is as the amount of revenue they'll get from downoads will far outweigh the revenue from a product that has 20-30 marketshare and is going up against a format that is widely adopted by the industry as a whole. The other reason you fail to be mentioning is that Microsoft is basically supporting HD DVD because they were infuriated by not having their HDi proprietary interactivity code on Blu-ray...so, I guess it is alright for them to blow up the high-def optical market because they didn't get their way according to you huh?

Be honest with yourself. If Microsoft was REALLY interested in the HD DVD format as you claim they are, why didn't they include an internal drive in the Xbox360? You know if they're that interested in seeing HD DVD succeed? Was it because they were protecting the "choice" of the consumer....rubbish. Again, the consumer would have the choice to buy or not to buy the 360 if it had an internal HD DVD drive. They wan't to stifle the high-def optical market so as to steer consumers to digital delivery where they would profit the most. I gave you two examples of Microsoftees saying just what I'm telling you here, and yet you attempt to rationalize the main driver for Microsoft as being just to support HD DVD. Don't be naive.


No, Microsoft supporting Blu-ray would be like them joining the DVD Forum and diplomatically coming to an agreement on a standard. Funny how 169 other companies came to an agreement on the standard of Blu-ray via the BDA, but somehow, Microsoft got their panties all in a wad. Moreover, your wrong again as Apple has a vested interest in Blu-ray as well, being in the patent pool for H.264 which is used on most Blu-ray discs and being a member of the BDA Board of Directors where they are getting royalties.

Where's Microsoft?...there's your answer...no HDi for you. (The BDA as a body voted for BD-J)


No, I would just simply tell you that Windows Vista is just a half-hearted ploy by Microsoft to gouge consumers into thinking it is any different that their previous OS and make bank. Vista sucks, plain and simple. I know because I manage over 18,000 systems in an enterprise with it and it is nothing but endless headaches, but I have job security with it that's for sure :-). The super-awesome operating system is made by their competitor, Apple...the one I can take solace in going home too.

So this is a way for Microsoft to profit off of HD DVD's success. But...

...They're only spending millions on the format in an attempt to deter people from buying anything at all for the next 5-10 years? \ Hey here's a crazy idea: maybe Microsoft genuinely wants HD DVD to succeed in the optical realm so they have a source of income for the next 5-10 years until the world is sufficiently wired for internet-only based delivery of high definition material?

Show me where I can buy a 46" television today that isn't High Definition. Like HDTV, HDM players will find their way in to most consumer's homes simply because when their old DVD player dies and they go to the store to pick up a new one, HDM players will either be the only thing lining the shelves or the additional cost to be able to play both DVDs and next-generation DVDs will be insignificant enough that they may as well pay the extra couple bucks. This is what I mean by "have no choice".

A consumer can't purchase a PS3 sans Blu-Ray. Blu-Ray is the reason the PS3 started at hundreds of dollars more than the xBox 360. Sony knew this would negatively impact sales, but they did it anyway. Even if the PS3 sold 1/4th as many consoles as the PS2, that's still a buttload of unintentionally purchased Blu-Ray players. It's the Internet Explorer affect. As I've said before, if Sony had offered a PS3 without Blu-Ray for hundreds of dollars less at launch time, I'd bet the farm that most buyers would choose to opt out of Blu-Ray.

For a multitude of possible reasons, all of which have been pointed out just recently in this thread. Maybe they didn't want to try and sell $600 consoles at a $300 loss like Sony. Maybe the format wasn't readily available at the time they needed to start manufacturing both systems and games. HD DVD didn't begin shipping until March 2006, and the xBox 360 was available for the 2005 Christmas shopping season. If you remember, when the xBox 360 shipped everyone was still under the impression that the PS3 would be arriving in the spring for the same or less than an xBox 360 cost. Getting a leg up on Sony in the console market, and having a semi-affordable console, was obviously more important to Microsoft's gaming division than shilling a new disc format.

lol, you heard it here first folks: HD DVD is ruining the high-def optical market HD DVD is the reason you get a BOGO on Blu-Ray discs every other week for the past three months, and why you can pick up a Blu-Ray player for $280 already. Competition's been good to you.

So... Did anyone get their Harry Potter in HiDef?..

I had received my HD-DVD copy of HPOOTP from Amazon yesterday and watched it with my wife. It definitely was better than my local theater experience for sure.

The video quality and the audio in TrueHD is just top notch!.

Now, I can not wait to get my Bourne series and Stardust in HD-DVD. I can already see Stardust being a popular replay material for guests. Decent fairytale movies for family are hard to find these days.

It's been top of my Netflix queue for awhile, but I apparently didn't have it there early enough.

I bought and watched the BD Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix. It both looked and sounded really good. That was the first time I had seen it and the movie did a good job of getting me totally involved.

I also watched the SD-DVD of The Bourne Ultimatum. The movie itself left me seriously underwhelmed as it was so derivative and seemed tb be a by-the-numbers repeat of the previous two. In my mind, it was Franka Potente that really made the first movie shine. Once she was killed in Bourne 2 the movie and series seemed to loose its soul.

My Amazon order for Pirates 3 and Cast Away seems to be somewhere in USPS never-neverland. Hopefully it'll show up tomorrow. In the meantime I have Mr. Brooks and The Legend of Zorro courtesy of Netflix to watch.

Ratatouille = single best HD release thus far.

My local theater was quite blur with below average audio system, it was distracting viewing at the theater. I actually enjoyed it more viewing at home for the second time. The last three HP series have been quite good.


Hey... don't spoil it, yet. I've yet to see the whole series other than patchie viewing from directv. This one is almost like a blind buy for me. At least my in-law wanted me to get it in HD-DVD.


I've been pretty lucky with USPS delivery time. Most of my Amazon orders get shipped from about 40 miles from where I live and usually get the package within 2 days after shipping. I've had very few shipping from seatle or northern cal that took more than a week, though.

If by profitable you mean having the hardware company (Toshiba) sell players at a loss and have your movies with your codecs and proprietary interactivity software outsold by the competition 3:1...sure, I guess you could call it profitable...but I guess a kid with a lemonade stand can be pretty profitable too, huh...


Whoa, whoa, whoa...who has said anything about "in an attempt to deter people from buying anything at all for the next 5-10 years?" That's not at all what I'm claiming. You're simply trying to change what I've been stating. I'm claiming that they are stagnating the optical market, that is making a victor less plausible, and sure they may make some lemonade money along the way, but their goal is to keep the market relatively niche since they don't have their proprietary software (HDi) on Blu-ray movies that look to be the inevitable victor of the war. If they can keep high-def optical from catching on, they profit more from downloads in the future...really...quite...basic.


They will certainly not be lining the shelves if the HDM market remains niche...exactly what Microsoft wants. And it will happen if there are two formats in the HDM.


Well following your logic, when I buy Wii, I ought to be able to buy it sans the drive they chose. Or the DVD drive the 360 chose. Maybe I ought to choose the type of drive I get in every device?...perhaps hey Walter, put me up for a VHS drive will ya! Maybe Apple should have consulted with Microsoft before they sold the iPod + iTunes, you know because people don't have the "choice" to play their iTunes music on their other mp3 players other than their iPod. Perhaps we can all turn French for you there Corey, and socialize our capatilistic endeavors so that when any company comes up with one of their bright ideas, they will be forced to either not include it or just share it with every other competitor.

And funny, the only "unintentionally purchased" complainers I hear are from the HD DVD side...most PS3 purchasers are quite satisfied with the extra functionality of the system. Wonder why that is?


Or just MAYBE their end goal is to do exactly what they STATED. Imagine that...



LOL, you heard it here about 500 times folks, competition in the Home Video Market doesn't end with one format...VHS and DVD saw the same competition between vendors competing for your dollar. Some here obviously attempt to give HD DVD a bit more credit than they deserve with their paltry marketshare. No, you get BOGO because of the BDA and the holidays, the timing of the BOGOs is simply to prove that HD DVD is the next DIVX. Moreover, for those following the thread for the past couple of years, those of us in the Blu-ray camp have been stating for a while that prices would come down due to economies of scale, just like DVD. I know you're wanting to give HD DVD credit for things, but the one for sure thing you can give them credit for is confusing the consumer.

Isn't "deterring people from buying anything" the same thing as "keep the high-def optical market from catching on"? And why would Microsoft presume that if optical HDM doesn't catch on, people would automatically opt to purchase online movies from them, not Apple?

HD DVD has already reached $199, and Blu-Ray $280. In another year I imagine they'll be $99 and $150, respectively. Who's going to buy a regular DVD player at those prices? Hell, I imagine a lot of player manufacturer's will begin to cease production or non-HDM players by that time.

Hey, if it wasn't for the fact that PS3 games come on Blu-Ray discs, Toshiba would have a strong case against Sony in the European market for monopolistic practices, much in the same way Microsoft is now forced to sell Windows without Internet Explorer on that continent. How's an up-and-comer supposed to get a break when someone like Sony uses their lead in the game console market to push out competing formats

Hey look, here's more of Microsoft trying to kill optical media in favor of HD movies nobody can download or store for another 4-10 years

Nielsen/VideoScan Numbers ending December 9th

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ques...1607/index.php

WE: BD-76% HDD-24% YTD: BD-65% HDD-35% SI: BD-62% HDD-38%

HD DVD just can't catch a break I tell ya. But that's good from a wanting to end the format war as quickly as possible perspective.

C'mon Bluray, hurry up and win this thing already!