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Macworld: Apple ordering "key components" for new video iPod

post #1 of 25
Thread Starter 
Shares of Apple Computer inched up by a percent on Monday after an analyst for JPMorgan raised estimates for the company's December quarter and said checks indicate a new hard disk drive-based iPod may be near.

In a research note to clients on Monday, analyst Bill Shope said product introductions during Tuesday's Macworld Expo are likely to focus on iTV and Mac OS X 10.5 Leopard.

"The iTV device, and the widescreen iPod, will serve as the hardware component in Apples downloadable movie business model," he wrote. "Leopard will integrate the companys Boot Camp software as a utility, which we continue to believe represents a critical positive catalyst for the Apple story."

Shope said he's recently gathered data points suggesting that Apple has been ordering key components for a new HDD-based iPod. "This leads us to believe that Apple may finally launch the video-centric iPod, which will fit nicely with its iTV launch, and further solidify the companys early lead in the paid movie download market," he wrote.

On the other hand, the analyst said checks with sources in Asia suggest the iPhone may not be ready until at least the end of this quarter. He acknowledged that an iPhone no-show "may be a modest disappointment for the stock."

Meanwhile, Shope raised his estimates slightly for Apple's recently-ended December quarter, primarily due to greater than expected sell through of its new iPod shuffle digital music player.

"We now expect December quarter iPod shipments of 16 million up from 14.8 million," he wrote. "Our forecast now calls for revenues of $6.61 billion and earnings-per-share of $0.82 versus $6.57 billion and $0.81 previously." His forecast for the quarter also includes sales of 1.9 million Macs.

The analyst reiterated his Overweight rating on shares of Apple.
post #2 of 25
If Steve does not at least announce the "iPhone" then their stock will plummet.
post #3 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by Feynman View Post

If Steve does not at least announce the "iPhone" then their stock will plummet.

In someways I hope they don't so I can buy in at a lower price......
post #4 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by Feynman View Post

If Steve does not at least announce the "iPhone" then their stock will plummet.

I don't see the stock plummeting. Apple has never said one word about developing a phone. Shareholders aren't just going to give up their stock because Apple didn't release a product that the media created in the first place.
post #5 of 25
In a rational world, you'd be correct, but the stock market is anything but a rational world.
My brain is hung like a HORSE!
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My brain is hung like a HORSE!
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post #6 of 25
the question is...are those hard drives for the video ipod, or are they meant to be integrated into iTV?
post #7 of 25
I don't think we'll see iPhone at this MacWorld. More likely a special event all of its own. Stocks 'plummeting' are irrelevant.
post #8 of 25
Oh, it'd better be for the vidiPod. I've been waiting for 9 months for this thing. I couldn't care less about an iPhone. Just show me that widescreen!
post #9 of 25
Quote:
Shareholders aren't just going to give up their stock because Apple didn't release a product that the media created in the first place.

That is a nice thought but you obviously are not too familiar with how things work in the stock market.

The fact is that several fund managers, for some reason (whether it was media created or other), believe that an Apple phone is on the way. They have based their Apple stock target price assuming that those new revenue streams will be coming in. If Apple does not announce a phone product those fund managers will adjust their price target for the stock and you can be sure that the number will not go up.
post #10 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by fizzmaster View Post

That is a nice thought but you obviously are not too familiar with how things work in the stock market.

The fact is that several fund managers, for some reason (whether it was media created or other), believe that an Apple phone is on the way. They have based their Apple stock target price assuming that those new revenue streams will be coming in. If Apple does not announce a phone product those fund managers will adjust their price target for the stock and you can be sure that the number will not go up.

And what's worse still is if Apple doesn't announce anything above and beyond what's already highly rumored, they still might have a stock price drop for failing to exceed expectations.
post #11 of 25
I don't think the lack of a phone announcement will send the stock down. As long as Apple has some cool new products to keep profits up, the stock will smile.

An update on iTV and a widescreen video iPod will be most welcome. An HDTV would be nice. An Apple Mac/iPod/cell hybrid would be outta the park!
post #12 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by fizzmaster View Post

That is a nice thought but you obviously are not too familiar with how things work in the stock market.

The fact is that several fund managers, for some reason (whether it was media created or other), believe that an Apple phone is on the way. They have based their Apple stock target price assuming that those new revenue streams will be coming in. If Apple does not announce a phone product those fund managers will adjust their price target for the stock and you can be sure that the number will not go up.

I don't know about fund managers but no analyst that I know of covering Apple has priced a phone into his or her estimates.
post #13 of 25
Isn't there always a share price drop after a Macworld?
post #14 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rolo View Post

I don't think the lack of a phone announcement will send the stock down. As long as Apple has some cool new products to keep profits up, the stock will smile.

An update on iTV and a widescreen video iPod will be most welcome. An ? HDTV would be nice. An Apple Mac/iPod/cell hybrid would be outta the park!

It's an ApplePhone that doubles as a voice-activated remote control for your home computer. CONFIRMED!





(disclaimer: This story has not been confirmed, but it is temporarily insane)

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #15 of 25
"Buy on the rumor, sell on the news."
post #16 of 25
"... even if the news is outstanding, amazing, and incredible." seems to be the secondary part of that. Ah well.
My brain is hung like a HORSE!
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My brain is hung like a HORSE!
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post #17 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple Insider

"He acknowledged that an iPhone no-show "may be a modest disappointment for the stock."


He may be right about the stock dropping if it isn't announced. Assuming for a second that the ApplePhone is real but not out of the development stage yet, could Jobs do what he did at last year's WWDC and simply announce the existence of an ApplePhone without actually giving us details. Is this something he might do (or be advised to do) to raise the stock? After all, with as much buzz the rumoured phone recieved I expect many to be very disappointed if it's not introduced.
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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post #18 of 25
Even if Apple hasnt an iPhone ready, Steve could use his Reality Distorsion Field to create the impression that they have one...

Kinda, "One last thing", phone starts ringing, Steve reaches for his jeans pocket and then smiles and cancels the call, saying "No, I think I'll answer that call in a Special Event. Soon.
post #19 of 25
Daaaaaaaaayum, that's a good one Kendoka.
My brain is hung like a HORSE!
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My brain is hung like a HORSE!
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post #20 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kickaha View Post

Daaaaaaaaayum, that's a good one Kendoka.

That is good.
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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post #21 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by Strawberry View Post

Isn't there always a share price drop after a Macworld?

sure is, as they say..... buy on rumors , sell on facts.
post #22 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by Strawberry View Post

Isn't there always a share price drop after a Macworld?

grandpaw always said: "buy on rumor, sell on actuality"
Progress is a comfortable disease
--e.e.c.
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Progress is a comfortable disease
--e.e.c.
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post #23 of 25
shares will drop after the keynote, they always do.
post #24 of 25


Should Expect....

BENj
post #25 of 25
I look forward to a new iPod. Bigger screen and bigger hard drive. Longer battery life would be nice also.

But for me, I need the iPhone. It's the missing tool in my arsenal.
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