Originally Posted by gregmightdothat
I've addressed this 80 times, at least. In fact, if you look at the first thing I said to icfireball, you'll see exactly this.
Scientists ONLY agree that global warming is happening. As to the results of it, or the cause of it, there is ZERO consensus.
Since we're on analogies: is it possible to be Christian and not hate gays and deny evolution? Of course. Only a few extreme Christians hate gays (well, sadly more don't believe in evolution).
As I've pointed out before, the UN will be officially downgrading the impact of humans on global warming in the next few months (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main...nclimate10.xml
). More and more scientists are pointing out that yes, global warming is happening, but no, it's not quite like you think (http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/4487421.html
From the first link;
The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says there can be little doubt that humans are responsible for warming the planet, but the organisation has reduced its overall estimate of this effect by 25 per cent.
Scientists insist that the lower estimates for sea levels and the human impact on global warming are simply a refinement due to better data on how climate works rather than a reduction in the risk posed by global warming.
It warns that carbon dioxide emissions have risen during the past five years by three per cent, well above the 0.4 per cent a year average of the previous two decades. The authors also state that the climate is almost certain to warm by at least 1.5 C during the next 100 years.
The report paints a bleak picture for future generations unless greenhouse gas emissions are reduced. It predicts that the climate will warm by 0.2 C a decade for the next two decades if emissions continue at current levels.
It also says that the overall human effect on global warming since the industrial revolution is less than had been thought, due to the unexpected levels of cooling caused by aerosol sprays, which reflect heat from the sun.
OK, I take this to mean that the GCM's now include aerosols in their estimates, that including aerosols in the GCM's has lowered future estimates WRT previous estimates, and that our current situation would be even worse without aerosols.
I must invest heavily in aerosols, as there's sure to be a run on the market for hair spray!
and from the second link;
Nearly all climate scientists believe the Earth is warming and that human activity, by increasing the level of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, has contributed significantly to the warming.
Scientists have substantial evidence to support the view that humans are warming the planet — as carbon dioxide levels rise, glaciers melt and global temperatures rise. Yet, for predicting the future climate, scientists must rely upon sophisticated — but not perfect — computer models.
So basically, shit's still going to happen, just not as fast as previously estimated, and it's our shit that's the major cause of the problem!
Additional links for you're review;How do we know that recent CO2 increases are due to human activities?
This counters gregmightdothat's contention that we humans are not raising CO2 levels.Dangerous human-made interference with climate: a GISS modelE study
This may address SDW's question on SOTA GCM's temperature accuracy, see Figure 3 (towards the end). That GCM was calibrated with 125 years of empirical/observational weather data, by my eyeballing the fit of the model to that data set, I'd estimate sigma < 0.1 degrees celsius.
And after playing with a bunch of ice core CO2 data and the SIO/NOAA CO2 data from Mauna Loa, HI, I can categorically state that at no time in the previous 650,000 years has Earth seen such a rapid rise in CO2 levels over as short a timespan as the last 50 years, it's not even close, the next most rapid rise was over an order of magnitude less than the current rate.
Also the average rise in CO2 from ~4,500BC to ~1,800AD was 0.0029 ppm/year (and yes it's almost linear over that timespan), compare that number to the current rare of ~2ppm/year!