Apple revenues could catch Microsoft by 2010 - Page 2

I dunno... people have been saying 'Apple has peaked' for the past several years now, and they've always been wrong.

I don't think iPods have come anywhere near peaking, actually... the vast majority of people, even if we're talking just US/Europe/Asia, still don't have one. And let's not forget about Apple's entry into the billion-unit a year cellphone market. Mac marketshare also could continue to increase, provided Apple gets a bit more aggressive in their pricing.

If I had to lay odds, I'd say its 5 to 2 that '07 is even better than '06, and better than that for '08 being gangbusters (when iPhone hits full stride). But we'll see. 8)

Wish this team had calculated my merit raises. I could have retired ten years sooner. Now if they
could just readjust my calculations for the price of a new Mac Pro using their creative stats, I would
order one immediately. Now don't go off the deep end. I am pro Apple and would like to see them
not only corner the market, but put Microsoft in its place. Apple has the superior product compared to
Microsoft. With that in mind, let's stay with reality and keep a good thing going by continuing to
produce superior products. The numbers will fall where they will, but not in the time frame outlined.
If I'm wrong, I'll gladly recant my opinion.

The point to the chart was not to show that this would actually happen, but to illustrate the changing fortunes of the two companies.

At one time, MS was growing much faster than it is now. right now, it it pacing indusrty growth.

Apple has now outraced that growth for some time.
If Apple can continue to do that, then they will bypass MS at some point.

I've felt, for at least the past two years, that Apple would outgrow MS.

The reason why MS has gotten itself into other areas, such as the XBOX, and online gaming, is because it knows that as industry growth flattens out, their sales will as well, and their outragiously high profits will do so as well.

Apple had luck with the iPod when it first came out, but was able to take advantage of it. Now, Apple has a brand that they are using to move into other places. This is smart.

If they can leverage their name, they can grow significantly over the next few years.

They are still small enough that continued 25% annualized growth for the next few years is not out of the question. But, it may require them to move into other lines of goods after that.

We may see them moving where we don't expect them to.

Exactly!

Hp was a small company once. Now they are one of the largest. Those of us who knew them in the mid-late '60's would never have predicted this.

But, when Hp said that they intended to become one of the largest computer suppliers, we had the chance to believe. That was 30 years ago. At the time, they had almost nothing. now, their sales are around $100 billion.

"Microsofts revenues have grown approximately 60 percent from just under $30B in 2002 to over $44B in 2006".

Is my calculator wrong? How is growth from "just under" 30 to "over" 44, an increase of 60%?

Even if you went extreme and took "just under" 30 as meaning 29, and "over" 44 meaning 45, that's still only an increase of 55.17% (or "just over").

If you get slightly more realistic and took "just under" 30 to be 29.5 and "over" 44 to be 44.5, then your increase is "just under" 51%. There's no 60% about it, mister.

Oh, and look, if I type 58008 and then turn the calculator upside-down...

No. It means that people are happy that the company is strong.

30% margins, and Net profits of 12% are good, but not unusual for a successful company. Look at Cisco, or others. You will see double the profit.

Don't look at companies who are skating the razor thin margins of profitability as the hoped for norm. When Apple was doing that, their ability to innovate was severely compromised. When Jobs came back, he dropped several of Apple's most profitable lines, scanners, printers, and crt monitors, because Apple couldn't afford the high overhead of R&D they required to maintain their place.

Instead, they had to focus.

Now, Apple can afford to experiment with several technologies, and enhance their patent portfolio, which they weren't able to do during the dry spell.

So, what would you like to see? Products that are 5% cheaper, with Apple barely making a profit?

It is true. It has to be. I read it on the inter-web.

Nothing to see here....somehow hit submit

....Microsoft went from 0% of the MP3 player market to 2% in just one year. Following this trend, in only 50 years Microsoft will own 100% of the MP3 player market!

Your assertions are utterly unsupported and with the exception of the iTV, highly unlikely.

1. "The iPod has peaked" Uhh...they were saying that when they were selling 6 million a quarter. Now they're selling 20 million a quarter. It hasn't peaked...it's only getting bigger. Exponential growth may slow, but sales will continue to increase at a high rate. At least, that's what the professional analysts say.

2. Apple is making progress with the Mactel combination. There has been a lot of news about them being successful in switching windows users over. all of a sudden we have no more performance gap, no more stupid bakeoffs and one less reason to use Windows. The only reason you posted that statement was because after a year you don't read it on MacNN anymore.

3. What is the basis for your predictions of failure for the iPhone and iTV? I have to disagree with you on at least the first. My feeling is that it will be an ridiculous success due to the potential Cingular service deal. And really, we've seen expensive iPods sell, so I don't think it's overpriced. The thing is that it's interface is amazing compared to what's out there. And unlike when the Newton was introduced, Apple now has the brand recognition, retail presence and business sense to pull it off.

I do wonder about the iTV. I think it's at a good price point, but I just question whether or not people are ready to make that leap, especially for what, right now, are movies and TV shows that aren't in HD.

That said, I think your predictions are, sorry, worth far far less than anyone else's. You can't just make crap up and call it an opinion.

exactly what I'm pointing out.. It's guessing, or wishful thinking, but not worth to be on AppleInsider.. more like ThinkSecret

This is a very probable prediction, though not based on his mathematics. One word: iPhone.

iPhone will not only bring new revenue, it will also create an "halo" effect much like the iPod but with a much, much bigger sphere of influence, thus increasing Apple's user base, hence more products sold.

And let's not forget the the obvious, MS has nowhere to grow and Apple does.

Since I myself am from the future, I didn't catch that.

What a great point! (Spoken as both a consumer and stockholder, struggling wth the cosmic question: do I want a piece of the 'consumer surplus' or would I rather get it in the form of 'producer surplus?').

Ah! Now, that explains a lot.

How does "record breaking profits" equate to "charging too much"? Is it possible that they could be selling more products hence having record breaking profits?

Leopard Server will be more than $130.

No, not really. The $499 version includes, I think, 10 seats, that's $50 a seat.

The $999 version has unlimited seats.

Compare that to MS's server product, and even Linux from Red Hat. Both far more expensive.

So how is AppleTV doing in the future?

Enjoy ...Not 10 years, but historical factual data. Previously posted, but may be useful to reflect again. Sorry about the 1x10^x notation, it was the only way to make the curves sit next to each other.




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This is MY EXTRAPOLATION previously posted. In this case for stock value. Of course, I was conservative and extrapolated linear not exponential growth 8)

Revenue is not *that* important, it's profits!! I predict by 2010 we'll have so many mac fanbois and fangirrls that they'll voluntarily work for next to peanuts in China just to try out all the latest gear, AND to stop being endlessly tormented by new product rumors. This will send Apple's profit margins sky high!!

The new slaves: Diehard Fans of Apple,Inc. Will work for just a chance to touch a new Mac or to touch one of the black turtlenecks Steve has used in a keynote.

Great charts Sunil.

But revenue is important. A mostly hardware manufacturer can't increase its profits dramatically without also dramatically increasing its revenue.

Apple did $1 billion in profits this past quarter because it did over $7.1 billion in sales.

Well, it may be a bit of fun journalism. But is the idea ridiculous?

Back in 1997? You may have been laughed at by Dvorak. But not me. I've always been a believer in the innate superiority of Apple's approach, more so under Steve Jobs of course.

iPods bought them a huge slice of luck they have been able to leverage to a degree on Mac sales.

However:

More software.
Kickstarting their OS back '97. Transitions. Innovation outpacing MS's.
Mac only software from Apple stable. Compare now to '97. WOw. Huge growth there.
Retail Stores.
X-Serves.
New Mac designs/iMac phenomenon.
Paying attention to developers and giving developers Mac development software (as opposed to Metroworks? Codewarrior thing?)
Moving to Intel.
Working with other companies eg iPod partnership eco system. Macs in Best Buy and in actual Apple owned stores.
Edu' market is now receiving more attention.
Sexy laptops where Apple has been pushing the envelope for some time. And the Laptop market is poised to bury the Desktop market in short order.
A fantastic web site. The best amongst their peers.
Advertising (at least with the iPod...)
And they're getting great PC press from...er..uhm...PC PRESS!
Mind share is growing at an Exponential rate.
Oh, Stock price, understandably is up.
Profits just posted? Smashed previous records!
Apple 'Computer' turned their name to Apple 'Inc' (Pay attention to that fact...)
Looking at all that? They've come a long way.
er...didn't their Market cap eclipse Dell a while back? Who would have thought that possible? Who's next? M$ of course.

Now, where are they going?

Let's guess (and you can draw whatever graph lines you wish...

1. Leopard. Bed rock of the next two years. (Apple's going to put Vista to the Sword. More switchers, lots more when they see Leopard. And all the Mac users waiting for Leopard and iNtel centric Mac designs and Photoshop 3?)
2. New Apple Mac software from Apple. (An area they can still grow much more.)
3. New Intel Designed Macs (as opposed to nice but rehashed PPC designs...)
4. Apple TV (A sleeper hit. Wait until HD TV sales take off and people can use their TVs as their desktops via their Mac server...)
5. iPod Widescreen (maybe? Or will they only tie the widescreen iPod to the iPhone to ensure it's success?)
6. iPhone. (Enquiries for it in web search smashed all iPod searches for the year. This is going to catapult Apple into the Electronics field as an established player. It will likely provide key stone to kick all comers into touch.)
7. Eco System for iPhone.
8. Tied to Mac. Mac halo. Mac sales outstrip PC sales growth.
9. More Apple owned Stores.
10. Apple advertises iPhone. More brand/mindshare awareness.
11. Edu sales growth.
12. Apple addresses weakspots of X-Serve/OS server. New Kernal?
13. People like my IT guy at work and my friend (a long time caustic Mac sceptic...) want the iPhone. Do they realise they're getting a Mac if they do? (It runs Leopard. It's a Mac.)
14. Tablet or iMac docking tablet sometime in the next year. '08? ie the Mac redefined off the back off Leopard. We could see something quite new.
15. Intel. They've got more cpus in breadth and scale of product that mirrors Apple's 'Inc' direction into electronics. That could be phones, mp3 players, games machines, Apple TV...tablets...TVs...!!!

Apple have been giving M$ a beating in the OS arena, kicked IBM and Moto into touch for Intel, thumped the beatles in the court case....next?

Motorola. Right on their home turf of phones. They dumped on Apple big time. Left them out to dry. Both with Codewarriors and their cell phone class desktop chips.

Apple? iPhone kicks them right in the nads. Stock price projections for Moto' have already been affected. And they're not the the only ones. Apple are going for 1%. Typical Apple tactic. Under promise. Wait until they get 2 or 5%? Stock price soars.

M$. Leopard. But it may not only be that. But a Apple centric Office suite in the next two years that takes all dependence for M$ away from Mac users. And for the rest? There's Boot Camp. But Leopard will go up to the gates of Redmond and blow both doors off Vista. Wait until somebody, maybe Apple allows Windows Api to run apps direct in Leopard minus OS? Maybe if they don't, Parallels may go there one day.

Will Apple overtake M$? Based upon current performance? (Subject to change?) It's a matter of time. Apple's star is rising. M$'s sun is setting.

The tanks are already on the lawn...

Lemon Bon Bon

'know what you mean. (Now i can afford better cigars than ever.
Everybody who ever had the need to buy cigars, knows that you can
spend a furtune on it.) Well, this is life and life without cigars is questionable at least.
Btw, don't consume cigars in the kitchen or in the livingroom if your wife or your
children are around the corner.
8)

Good story. Same happend in my neighbourhood. The bottom line is
people love their Macs and the MegaHzMyth is nearly dead.

It is dead, and buried too.

2 GHz Core 2 Duos beating the snot out of 3.6 GHz Dual Core Pentium Ms sealed that, unless a person is particularly dense. There may be a few, but some folks still believe the Earth is flat, too. MHz Myth, rest in peace. 8)

.

Can't be. Griffin sells ipod accessories and as such does have market share (even if tiny). :-). I think the original author meant to say mp3 players and you are cheekily correcting him and i in turn is cheekily correcting you. Crap, my head is spinning from all this cheekiness, i need to lay down.

In order for Apple to catch up with Microsoft in revenue, Apple has to sell a lot more OS or Apple version of Office. In addition, MAC needs a lot more third party softwares and freeware to convert PC users to crack the corporate market.

With the iPhone platform comes out, I am hoping Apple can expand the iPOD platform base on the iPhone except without the phone feature (it is too hard to package everything into one). I am hoping Apple can introduce an iGPS for traveling and use in my car. As well, a 80GB iPod based on the iPhone platform for video viewing would be a great upgrade as well.