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Apple may ax next-gen HDD iPod in favor of all-flash models - Page 3

post #81 of 141
Quote:
Originally Posted by mugwump View Post

Yes, flash RAID is fine.

I believe the first shuffle or nano had a couple of 2 gig flash chips in there -- or some size like that.

Who told you that a flash file system has to be only one chip? It's not true. A single file system can use as many or as few chips as your system designers choose.

The fact that some iPods use multiple flash chips doesn't mean there's anything resembling RAID in there. It's just a multi-chip flash file system. This is no different from the fact that a lot of hard drives have two or three platters in the case - it's still one drive.
post #82 of 141
Exactly. RAID is irrelevant. An ipod doesn't need RAID to make use of multiple 32GB chips. For example, I believe the 4GB Nano was orginally 2x2GB.

Quote:
Originally Posted by shamino View Post

Why would anybody RAID together multiple 32G flash drives intead of simply hanging 128G worth of flash memory chips off of a single flash file system controller?

I think the 32G "limit" described is a limit only in terms of price and physical space within an iPod's shell.
post #83 of 141
Quote:
Originally Posted by shamino View Post

Translation: "I don't need one, so everybody who thinks they do is insane, stupid, or in dire need of re-education".

Well thank you very much. Remind me to vote for someone else when the ballot goes around to elect a god.

wow, a bit touchy are we? I didn't realize it was a crime to post an opinion on the matter.

Obviously a person can't carry their entire CD or DVD collection with them (unless it's very small), so I'm just wondering why people expect to do it with their digital media collection once it grows beyond a certain size? In that case, no matter how much storage a portable media player has, it'll never be big enough because you'll just keep amassing more media to fill it and go beyond it's capacity.

I mean, is your solution to only having so much space in your house for your possessions to just buy a bigger house when you buy more stuff? If so, good luck with that strategy if you live in a large city.

So my point is, part of having a large collection of digital media is learning to manage it. Just as part of having a lot of furniture, clothes, devices, etc is learning to organize it. When you buy new stuff, you recycle, donate, put into external storage, or (as a last resort) throw out the old stuff. If you don't want to deal with the chore of doing that, then don't buy/download new stuff.

So yes, I do think people whose solution to having too much media to fit on their portable music player is to get a larger one are in dire need of re-education.

As a god I would decree, "You want to go home and re-think your file management strategy".
 
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post #84 of 141
Quote:
Originally Posted by JonE View Post

Then why was it designed to be bounced around continuously in your pocket?

It was redesigned to absorb a bit of shock around the time it was put in laptops. But it's never been ideally suited for said bouncy environments.

If you think it is, try dropping a hard-drive based iPod a few times while it's playing. My wife's only took one such drop to end its life.
 
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post #85 of 141
Quote:
Originally Posted by auxio View Post

Obviously a person can't carry their entire CD or DVD collection with them (unless it's very small), so I'm just wondering why people expect to do it with their digital media collection once it grows beyond a certain size? In that case, no matter how much storage a portable media player has, it'll never be big enough because you'll just keep amassing more media to fill it and go beyond it's capacity.

Nobody is saying iPods require infinite capacity.

But there are tons of people who currently carry all their music on the device. My collection is 40GB, which fits very nicely on the 80GB iPod. But now you come along and say "Apple should discontinue that model, and everybody who wants it is an idiot for wanting it."

You're being incredibly arrogant when you tell everybody else that they have no right to want what they want, simply because you personally don't agree with them.
post #86 of 141
Quote:
Originally Posted by shamino View Post

You're being incredibly arrogant when you tell everybody else that they have no right to want what they want, simply because you personally don't agree with them.

I think it's one thing to want something, often, it's another thing to be realistic about it. 200+ GB suggested by at least one is plain unrealistic.

If I wanted to, I can fill an 80GB a few times over, but I don't. I just know that after putting 160+ hours of media on it, the incremental value of putting more on it decreases.
post #87 of 141
Quote:
Originally Posted by shamino View Post

But there are tons of people who currently carry all their music on the device. My collection is 40GB, which fits very nicely on the 80GB iPod. But now you come along and say "Apple should discontinue that model, and everybody who wants it is an idiot for wanting it."

Not at all. I'm simply pointing out the flaws in the rationale behind thinking that bigger and bigger hard drive based iPods will solve the problem of a growing digital media collection. I much prefer rational argument to name-calling.

And I don't think Apple should completely discontinue the hard drive based iPod line. I simply think they should put more focus on the flash-based line until such time as they can replace the existing hard drive based line with equivalently sized flash-based players. Rather than spending time on designing bigger and bigger hard-drive based models.

That way, flash prices will eventually come down due to increased market size and greater influx of money. Which will then help fund more R&D and optimization of the production chain. That will enable flash-based storage to replace hard drive storage in the long run. Which is what my end desire out of all this is.

Eventually, you should be able to get flash based media players which are as big as the hard-drive based ones you want. And on top of that give you 3 times as much battery life plus be resistant to drops.

But I understand that the average consumer has no idea about the underlying technology and why one is superior to another, and so they simply will buy based on numbers. Which is why I'm being so arrogant about it. Flash memory is simply a better storage medium.

I write this as one of the hard drives in my RAID array just stopped working a couple days ago. That's hard drive number 7 which has failed on me in the past 10 years or so. What a great technology!
 
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post #88 of 141
Quote:
Originally Posted by auxio View Post

Eventually, you should be able to get flash based media players which are as big as the hard-drive based ones you want. And on top of that give you 3 times as much battery life plus be resistant to drops.

Everything has a cost. I've heard people say that they want to replace desktop hard drives with flash as well. Which sounds great until you consider what the cost of a 300GB flash drive would cost, the fact that it will be much slower than a modern hard drive, and that things like swap files will rapidly go through all of its write-cycles, leading to premature failure.

There are plusses and minusses to every device. I don't think you can simply say "this one is better". You always have to qualify it with what you mean by "better" and what the intended application is.
Quote:
Originally Posted by auxio

But I understand that the average consumer has no idea about the underlying technology and why one is superior to another, and so they simply will buy based on numbers. Which is why I'm being so arrogant about it.

But the "average consumer" is not generally going to be found posting on an AppleInsider forum. Probably not many reading this forum either.
Quote:
Originally Posted by auxio

I write this as one of the hard drives in my RAID array just stopped working a couple days ago. That's hard drive number 7 which has failed on me in the past 10 years or so. What a great technology!

You've had some incredibly bad luck. You may want to look into the brand/model you're buying, and possible power problems at your location.

I've also been using computers with hard drives for a long time (approaching 20 years now), and I think only one (out of about 15-20) of the drives I've purchased has actually failed. Most of them are either still in use or have been retired for other reasons (e.g. need more capacity, or no longer have a need for the computer they're mounted in.)

Some of this is good luck, some is due to the fact that my primary systems are never powered off, and some is due to the fact that all of my computers have line conditioners and/or UPS's.

I see similar reliability in my office, where there are a few dozen PCs, a handful of UNIX servers, and a few standalone high-capacity file servers. Some drives have failed, but most get retired for other reasons before that.

Maybe if 70% of my drives failed (if that's what you were reporting), I'd feel differently, but I really see no reason to write off the entire concept as a bad idea.
post #89 of 141
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Originally Posted by menotyou View Post

then tell me, where are you going to buy this data from with the attribution that is needed? TIGER does not have appropriate accuracy for the USA. That is the only other continious data provider in the US, not to mention the globe. All mapping portals on the intnernet get there data from one or both of these firms, as well as personal navigation devises & auto firms. check your facts.

You don't have to buy any of this data. this isn't a mapping function. It's locating a device that's putting out a signal. If location finding was added to these, or to the laptops (a much better idea), a signal could be broadcast, receivable by whatever method required, GPS or otherwise. It could broadcast its serial number with it. Finding it would simply follow from that.

For some reason, people here seem to think that "turn left at this corner" is required for this. It isn't. Broadcasting latitude and longitude is enough. That ability is inherent within the device itself.

It could be turned on if a password wasn't supplied, or by some other less annoying method that could be user defines. Or it could be done by the user giving the serial number to the authorities tracking the device. Broadcasting a query for that serial number would elicit a reply from the proper device if it is turned on. The rest would take seconds. The device would then send it's L&L, and it would be found.

Let's not make more of this than it is. This is already old technology. It's in use.
post #90 of 141
Quote:
Originally Posted by shamino View Post

There are plusses and minusses to every device. I don't think you can simply say "this one is better". You always have to qualify it with what you mean by "better" and what the intended application is.

I agree. There is no adequate replacement for the desktop hard drive on the desktop, unless you are willing to make very drastic changes. Even the 2.5" notebook hard drives are still generally far better than its existing flash counterparts. The HDDs aren't that bad on power consumption, and current ones are very quiet too.

Drives fail, but not that often unless they are abused or poorly made. I had maybe three in three dozen drives fail in the past decade, one was in an overly abusive environment. Even now, I'm not seeing a better alternative for what I do with them. Duplicate sets of hard drives is still about 10x cheaper or 10x more manageable than the alternatives.
post #91 of 141
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Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post

I agree. There is no adequate replacement for the desktop hard drive on the desktop, unless you are willing to make very drastic changes. Even the 2.5" notebook hard drives are still generally far better than its existing flash counterparts. The HDDs aren't that bad on power consumption, and current ones are very quiet too.

Drives fail, but not that often unless they are abused or poorly made. I had maybe one in twelve drives fail in the past decade or two and even now, I'm not seeing a better alternative for what I do with them.

We are beginning to see 3.5" drives being moved out of the desktop space as well. 2.5" drives will take over there. Seagate has announced a high speed 2.5" drive, and others will follow.

The question in any of this is just how much storage does anyone really need?

Do we really need multiple terabyte drives in our desktops?

Do we need 500 GB in our phones or music players?

The high end iPods have always been the slowest sellers. No doubt, that will continue.

With all the talk here of 120 Gb iPods, people are forgetting that Apple could have gone to 100 GB a year ago, if they felt the need. They could go to 120 now.

I think that price is more important to most people, otherwise, they would buy the device with the largest storage in each category in overwhelming numbers. That hasn't been the case, just the opposite.

Apple would have to tread a fine line if they discontinued HD's in the larger models.
post #92 of 141
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

We are beginning to see 3.5" drives being moved out of the desktop space as well. 2.5" drives will take over there. Seagate has announced a high speed 2.5" drive, and others will follow.

The question in any of this is just how much storage does anyone really need?

Do we really need multiple terabyte drives in our desktops?

Do we need 500 GB in our phones or music players?

I will say that people have always been wondering why such large drives were necessary, I remember comments like that as far back as when the 300MB drives were introduced, and I think I've read accounts of people saying that about 5MB computer drives.

Seagate did announce the 2.5" server drives last year or the year before. The latest do have an IO advantage at a very high cost. Outside of the Savvios, 2.5" drives are still noticibly slower, much slower, than the same capacity desktop drive, and they are all still more expensive than the 3.5" drives. Even if I only needed 10GB, I still wouldn't go with a 2.5" drive for non-mobile use if I can reasonably avoid it. I know the shift is starting, but I think it will be a while before it becomes sigificant.
post #93 of 141
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post

I will say that people have always been wondering why such large drives were necessary, I remember comments like that as far back as when the 300MB drives were introduced, and I think I've read accounts of people saying that about 5MB computer drives.

Seagate did announce the 2.5" server drives last year or the year before. The latest do have an IO advantage at a very high cost. Outside of the Savvios, 2.5" drives are still noticibly slower, much slower, than the same capacity desktop drive, and they are all still more expensive than the 3.5" drives. Even if I only needed 10GB, I still wouldn't go with a 2.5" drive for non-mobile use if I can reasonably avoid it. I know the shift is starting, but I think it will be a while before it becomes sigificant.

It will take another 18 months, or so, before it becomes significant.

But, I heard the same thing about going from 5.25" drives to 3.5".

If we still had 5.25" drives, we would have 2 TB drives running at 150 MB/s. But, we don't.

The 3.5" will go the same way. Computer manufacturers have been talking about ridding themselves of the 3.5" models for the past two years. The Mini is just the most prominent of those so far.

The truth is that most people don't need fast drives. 5,400 rpm models are more than fast enough for most purposes, including Dv editing.

It's the same as always, people LIKE to think they need more than they do, and they can give (incorrect) reasons why.
post #94 of 141
Quote:
Originally Posted by shamino View Post

Everything has a cost. I've heard people say that they want to replace desktop hard drives with flash as well. Which sounds great until you consider what the cost of a 300GB flash drive would cost, the fact that it will be much slower than a modern hard drive, and that things like swap files will rapidly go through all of its write-cycles, leading to premature failure.

And a 300GB hard drive cost a fortune 3 years ago as well. Times change very quickly once there's enough demand, money and engineering behind a technology.

Problems can be worked around. Put the swap file on a small hard drive. Since it's not as critical to lose a swap file (might cause the computer to crash, but at least a whole data store isn't lost), it wouldn't be as big a deal.

And I'm assuming there are materials engineers working on the limitation of how many times you can write to flash memory. Obviously every storage solution has some drawbacks, but at least with flash memory, it's less about human error (a spec of dirt got in, or a drive arm measurement was a couple of nanometers off causing more wear than expected) and more about material properties (for which there is a more accurate measurement of failure point).
Quote:
Some of this is good luck, some is due to the fact that my primary systems are never powered off, and some is due to the fact that all of my computers have line conditioners and/or UPS's.

I've actually lived in 3 different locations and have had my server running almost 24/7 for the past 8 or so years. I've had a UPS for the past 2 years, but I haven't bought a power conditioner yet. That'll be my next upgrade.

And I guess you could say that I've been using hard drive technology for about 15 years now. I'm just counting the last 10 or so where I've been running a server and not just a desktop PC.
Quote:
Maybe if 70% of my drives failed (if that's what you were reporting), I'd feel differently, but I really see no reason to write off the entire concept as a bad idea.

It's a bit less than 70%. I've probably owned about 20 hard drives from various manufacturers over those 10 years. And yes, some actually made it to retirement, but the majority failed in some way. Many of them I was able to catch before complete failure by watching for I/O errors in the system log, but a couple of them caught me by surprise (the recent one included). The one which failed before this was the one which prompted me to create a RAID.
 
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post #95 of 141
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

It will take another 18 months, or so, before it becomes significant.

But, I heard the same thing about going from 5.25" drives to 3.5".

If we still had 5.25" drives, we would have 2 TB drives running at 150 MB/s. But, we don't.

The 3.5" will go the same way. Computer manufacturers have been talking about ridding themselves of the 3.5" models for the past two years. The Mini is just the most prominent of those so far.

I think the 5" drives went away when the performance and cost difference was small. I haven't seen that yet with the 2.5" drives yet. The max RPM was limited by platter diameter. The current useful max for the 3.5" platters is 7200RPM, all the 10k and higher drives that I've seen have smaller platters.
post #96 of 141
Quote:
Originally Posted by auxio View Post

And a 300GB hard drive cost a fortune 5 years ago as well. Times change very quickly once there's enough demand, money and engineering behind a technology.

That's true. But 5 years is a long time. Hd tech will keep up in the larger sizes. As cost is even more important than other qualities in the desktop space, we won't seen Hd's replaced on any large scale for even longer time scales.

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Problems can be worked around. Put the swap file on a small hard drive. Since it's not as critical to lose a swap file (might cause the computer to crash, but at least a whole data store isn't lost), it wouldn't be as big a deal.

Interesting that you say that, because the trend is to go in the opposite way. Put the swap onto flash for safety.

Quote:
And I'm assuming there are materials engineers working on the limitation of how many times you can write to flash memory. Obviously every storage solution has some drawbacks, but at least with flash memory, it's less about human error (a spec of dirt got in, or a drive arm measurement was a couple of nanometers off causing more wear than expected) and more about material properties (for which there is a more accurate measurement of failure point).
I've actually lived in 3 different locations and have had my server running almost 24/7 for the past 8 or so years. I've had a UPS for the past 2 years, but I haven't bought a power conditioner yet. That'll be my next upgrade.

There are newer tech that will eliminate both the lifetime and speed issues, but the cost issue won't go away. Here's one:

http://samsung.com/PressCenter/Press...911_0000286481

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And I guess you could say that I've been using hard drive technology for about 15 years now. I'm just counting the last 10 or so where I've been running a server and not just a desktop PC.
It's a bit less than 70%. I've probably owned about 20 hard drives from various manufacturers over those 10 years. And yes, some actually made it to retirement, but the majority failed in some way. Many of them I was able to catch before complete failure by watching for I/O errors in the system log, but a couple of them caught me by surprise (the recent one included). The one which failed before this was the one which prompted me to create a RAID.

I've had many more Hd's than that, both here at home, and in my company over a period going back to the early '80's. In the beginning, when MTBF was 30,000 hours for a quality drive, they would fail.

But as those times inched up to, and crossed the million hour mark for SCSI, and the 200 thousand and above mark for ATA, failures have been rare.

The vast majority of my drives have been removed from use as bigger, faster, drives arrived to replace them.
post #97 of 141
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post

I think the 5" drives went away when the performance and cost difference was small. I haven't seen that yet with the 2.5" drives yet. The max RPM was limited by platter diameter. The current useful max for the 3.5" platters is 7200RPM, all the 10k and higher drives that I've seen have smaller platters.

The drive cap was difference was fairly large, but the move was made.

3.5" drives do come in 10k and 15k versions, with some work done on faster rotation, but without success. I don't know why you don't know that. Do you mean 2.5" instead?

There are no 15k drives in the 2.5" size, and, offhand, I don't recall if there are any 10k drives in 2.5, though I seem to remember an article about one somewhere.

We will be seeing 300 GB 2.5" drives before too long. That has already been stated by drive manufacturers. 500 GB drives are expected around 2008.

Most computers would be quite fine with 2.5" 300-500 GB drives rotating at 7,200 rpm.

3.5" models would linger a while longer, as did the full height 5.25" drives did after all the others had gone.
post #98 of 141
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

3.5" drives do come in 10k and 15k versions, with some work done on faster rotation, but without success. I don't know why you don't know that. Do you mean 2.5" instead?

The enclosure may be the same size, but I said was that the platter size was reduced from standard 3.5" drives to get the higher RPM. I have a couple old 10k and 15k drives, and the platter size is noticeably reduced from 7200 drives.

Quote:
There are no 15k drives in the 2.5" size, and, offhand, I don't recall if there are any 10k drives in 2.5, though I seem to remember an article about one somewhere.

The latest Savvio are 15k drives in a 2.5" wide package. Seagate's Savvio has been available in 10k RPM for over a year. The 15k versions were announced a couple weeks ago. They aren't really notebook form factor, they are about the same height as a current desktop drive.
post #99 of 141
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post

The enclosure may be the same size, but I said was that the platter size was reduced from standard 3.5" drives to get the higher RPM. I have a couple old 10k and 15k drives, and the platter size is noticeably reduced from 7200 drives.

Those are 3.5" drives. The platters are not very much different.


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The latest Savvio are 15k drives in a 2.5" wide package. Seagate's Savvio has been available in 10k RPM for over a year. The 15k versions were announced a couple weeks ago. They aren't really notebook form factor, they are about the same height as a current desktop drive.

We have the same situation here. These are not really 2.5" drives.

I'm speaking about standard drives. Those aren't out yet.
post #100 of 141
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Interesting that you say that, because the trend is to go in the opposite way. Put the swap onto flash for safety.

It's weird that people consider a computer crash to be so important. With a journelling file system and applications which auto-save periodically, a computer crash is about the least invasive problem which can happen to you. A hard drive crash is much more deadly. As in, I've had musician friends lose years of work to them -- and I've lost a few important files myself. An hour or so of work lost due to computer crash is really nothing compared to losing years of irreplaceable data.

And I dunno what to say regarding all the hard drive failures I've seen. It's not like my server is under high load. It's a Linux NAT/router/IMAP/file server used by myself and my wife. I just plain don't trust hard drives anymore, which is why I'm looking for another technology.

I guess with hard drive prices so cheap, seeing RAID as a standard computer option is more likely than seeing flash drives replace hard drives.
 
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post #101 of 141
Quote:
Originally Posted by auxio View Post

...And I dunno what to say regarding all the hard drive failures I've seen. It's not like my server is under high load. It's a Linux NAT/router/IMAP/file server used by myself and my wife. I just plain don't trust hard drives anymore, which is why I'm looking for another technology.

I guess with hard drive prices so cheap, seeing RAID as a standard computer option is more likely than seeing flash drives replace hard drives.

I think people are not realising if they have 250-500gb of storage, that's fantastic, but really, you need an external of almost equal size for redundant x1 backup.

For anything above 200gb just a spare external drive is enough for a backup and Leopard Time Machine, I imagine.

People with a lot of media would need to offload their backup/ collection onto something like a 2-hard-drive RAID 1 set on the external Lacie, etc...

That's the way I would play it... At the moment I can't afford to get a 2nd 2.5" drive (to swap out the MacBook 5400rpm drive, use that as backup 60gb, and put in a Seagate 7200rpm 80or100gb) . So I just do some weeklies onto 4gb iPod Mini 1st gen, and burn off single layer DVDs (at 4x [15minutes or so to burn]) in a more "scattershot" fashion.

The above is more portable than lugging around a 250gb RAID 1 2x2.5" or 2x3.5" external box.

For me, wireless NAS is just too slow on 802.11g. And dropouts are so unrecoverable/ unresumable that you have to re-connect the WHOLE FRIGGIN TRANSFER set of file.
post #102 of 141
Hey Sunil! Where are you boy?

This is an odd time for you to be posting.
post #103 of 141
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Those are 3.5" drives. The platters are not very much different.
We have the same situation here. These are not really 2.5" drives.
I'm speaking about standard drives. Those aren't out yet.

I think I could hold off until a 120gb Seagate 10k rpm 2.5" 9.5mm form factor (ie. FITS in MacBook) drive. Maybe end of this year.......

In Australia/USA you can get the Seagate 100gb 7200rpm 2.5" 9.5mm drive easily. In Malaysia these are rare, everyone seems to just be carrying the usual 5400rpm 2.5" mainstream stock.

I tell you what though, MacBook Core[1/2]Duo 2ghz, 2gb RAM, and a 10k 2.5" 120gb, that would frickin' ROCK THE HOUSE. AND BE FUTURE-PROOFED for at least going into the end of 2008.

Battery life would suffer, but so far I'm seeing some decent computing/ viewing DVD/ video sessions on battery alone, with Seagate's brilliant tech a 10k rpm 2.5" 120gb in a MacBook would be doable. Maybe trim off 25minutes of battery life, but if running as "desktop replacement" most of the time, very doable.
post #104 of 141
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Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Hey Sunil! Where are you boy?
This is an odd time for you to be posting.

Oh yeah, I'm not usually on at USA late afternoon/evening time.
It's 10am here in SouthEastern Australia. Melbourne... 8)

Slept at 12midnight last night, had some weird dreams, woke up at about 8.30am this morning and just cruising on the web. Time for some breakfast now

Leaving on a jet plane.... middle of next week. Destination: will be revealed upon arrival.
post #105 of 141
Quote:
Originally Posted by sunilraman View Post

Oh yeah, I'm not usually on at USA late afternoon/evening time.
It's 10am here in SouthEastern Australia. Melbourne... 8)

Slept at 12midnight last night, had some weird dreams, woke up at about 8.30am this morning and just cruising on the web. Time for some breakfast now

Leaving on a jet plane.... middle of next week. Destination: will be revealed upon arrival.

Time for dinner here in NYC.

Give us a hint. Which point of the compass are you traveling to? I hope it's not South!
post #106 of 141
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

The question in any of this is just how much storage does anyone really need?

It really depends on the application. And some applications do require tremendous amounts of storage.
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Originally Posted by melgross

Do we really need multiple terabyte drives in our desktops?

Five years ago, the answer would've been a resounding "no".

Today, with consumers buying digital camcorders, and using programs like iMovie and iDVD to make home movies, I think a few people could say "yes" to that question. In a year or two, it wouldn't surprise me if a lot of people will be able to say "yes".

And I'm sure Leopard's Time Machine will also increase people's storage requirements. Especially if people want to use it to keep backups of their multimedia projects.
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross

Do we need 500 GB in our phones or music players?

Not at the moment. But how long do think it will be before people want to start carrying their home movies around all the time, just like they carry around still photos today? I'd guess less than a year for the geeks to do this, and less than five years for it to become mainstream.
post #107 of 141
Quote:
Originally Posted by shamino View Post

It really depends on the application. And some applications do require tremendous amounts of storage.
Five years ago, the answer would've been a resounding "no".

Today, with consumers buying digital camcorders, and using programs like iMovie and iDVD to make home movies, I think a few people could say "yes" to that question. In a year or two, it wouldn't surprise me if a lot of people will be able to say "yes".

And I'm sure Leopard's Time Machine will also increase people's storage requirements. Especially if people want to use it to keep backups of their multimedia projects.
Not at the moment. But how long do think it will be before people want to start carrying their home movies around all the time, just like they carry around still photos today? I'd guess less than a year for the geeks to do this, and less than five years for it to become mainstream.

My point isn't that a few people will want, or need, that much, but will the majority?

A study done recently (if I can find it, I will post it) said that few people used more than 25% of their storage space. I believe that.

I don't think that too many people will be loading up on movies. A very few might.

In the future, we will probably see movies downloaded from wherever they are when we watch them, much like pay for view.

The average person doesn't watch movies, or tv programs more than once. There are few options for that on computer platforms as yet, but it will be coming.

As broadband speeds get higher, and the backbone capacity goes up, it will come, despite what Google says. No one will want to store that much stuff at home, nor will there be a need to.
post #108 of 141
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Time for dinner here in NYC.
Give us a hint. Which point of the compass are you traveling to? I hope it's not South!

Ah, it's pretty obvious. "Back" to the Equator. Mmm... 33degC | 91degF ...All year round.
I may try and get to the UK 2nd half 2007/early-mid 2008 - I got the UK Working/Holiday visa that's fully valid until April-2009.
post #109 of 141
Quote:
Originally Posted by sunilraman View Post

Ah, it's pretty obvious. "Back" to the Equator. Mmm... 33degC | 91degF ...All year round.
I may try and get to the UK 2nd half 2007/early-mid 2008 - I got the UK Working/Holiday visa that's fully valid until April-2009.

If you get to the UK, which way would you go, right or left?
post #110 of 141
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

If you get to the UK, which way would you go, right or left?

I don't know. I'd probably spend the 1st month or so with my brother and his fiancee in London, trying to decipher this supposed "English" the various English, Welsh, Scots, Irish, Cornish, etc. are speaking. I'd love to chill with some NYC peoples that are hanging around in London, and discover the secret cluster of Australians that are known to operate in packs in London.
post #111 of 141
Quote:
Originally Posted by sunilraman View Post

I think people are not realising if they have 250-500gb of storage, that's fantastic, but really, you need an external of almost equal size for redundant x1 backup.

For anything above 200gb just a spare external drive is enough for a backup and Leopard Time Machine, I imagine.

I dunno, for me manual back-up is just too much of a PITA. I guess I could keep an external drive connected all the time and use a scheduled back-up, but then that kinda defeats the purpose of having a removable drive.

I was actually thinking about internal, hot-swappable RAID 5 myself. No muss, no fuss once it's set up. Backup happens automagically as you write files to it. But then, I guess that solution doesn't really work for laptops.

I personally rsync the home directory on my laptop to the RAID 5 on my file server regularly for backup. Of course, that isn't always easy to do when you're on the road unless you can find high speed internet access regularly.
 
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post #112 of 141
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Originally Posted by auxio View Post

I was actually thinking about internal, hot-swappable RAID 5 myself. No muss, no fuss once it's set up.... But then, I guess that solution doesn't really work for laptops....

Nope, not at this stage. Exicting idea. However, I prefer a backup that can be place *away* and *outside* of the computer. An external drive meets this criteria and increases success of disaster recovery. One can have all the RAID in the world but if you lose your laptop your whole data goes Poof! ..

Quote:
Originally Posted by auxio View Post

I personally rsync the home directory on my laptop to the RAID 5 on my file server regularly for backup. Of course, that isn't always easy to do when you're on the road unless you can find high speed internet access regularly....

What I do is for critical documents I absolutely need, I just email them to myself with my gMail account. "Scattershot online repository method" - kinda like gMail poor person's iDisk. I would carry the external drive with me - a 2.5" USB pocket drive type thing would work.

Quote:
Originally Posted by auxio View Post

"...Backup happens automagically as you write files to it... "

Well this is the promise of Time Machine, you don't have to always have the external drive connected, just long enough or overnight or something for it to do its thing. I'm interested to see how it backs up and tracks changes especially huge video files and stuff. It's ambitious, even for Apple.
post #113 of 141
Also consider http://www.shirt-pocket.com/SuperDup...scription.html as an alternative to RSync?
post #114 of 141
Quote:
Originally Posted by sunilraman View Post

I don't know. I'd probably spend the 1st month or so with my brother and his fiancee in London, trying to decipher this supposed "English" the various English, Welsh, Scots, Irish, Cornish, etc. are speaking. I'd love to chill with some NYC peoples that are hanging around in London, and discover the secret cluster of Australians that are known to operate in packs in London.

Well, if you go by New York...
post #115 of 141
Quote:
Originally Posted by sunilraman View Post

However, I prefer a backup that can be place *away* and *outside* of the computer. An external drive meets this criteria and increases success of disaster recovery. One can have all the RAID in the world but if you lose your laptop your whole data goes Poof! ..

Yeah, RAID is definitely more of a server thing than a solution for laptops. My external hard drive is sitting beside my computer on my desk as I type this, so it's not really a good candidate for an "offsite" backup.

And I haven't had to deal with data loss from natural disaster yet -- never lived near a coastline or a tornado belt and I'm careful with fire -- so I guess I've never bothered to prepare for that. Maybe when I have kids and writable Blu-ray discs are dirt cheap...
Quote:
What I do is for critical documents I absolutely need, I just email them to myself with my gMail account. "Scattershot online repository method" - kinda like gMail poor person's iDisk.

Yeah, I actually have an offsite domain server which gives me 2GB of storage which I could use for this purpose -- I'm just too lazy about it sometimes.
 
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post #116 of 141
Quote:
Originally Posted by sunilraman View Post

Also consider http://www.shirt-pocket.com/SuperDup...scription.html as an alternative to RSync?

Superduper is good as a local backup solution, but rsync is ideal for me because it works both locally and remotely. I can do it from anywhere I have internet access. As long as I haven't modified a lot of large files (I do programming work, so most of the files I modify are relatively small), it doesn't take very long to remotely synchronize the files between my laptop and my server via SSH from anywhere on the internet.

The only replacement I've considered is Unison:

http://www.cis.upenn.edu/~bcpierce/unison/

since it can handle changes on both copies of the filesystem. Which is handy since I work on source code which is cross-platform. So I can be modifying it on both computers and keep both in sync without hassle.
 
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post #117 of 141
Quote:
Originally Posted by auxio View Post

I dunno, for me manual back-up is just too much of a PITA. ... I was actually thinking about internal, hot-swappable RAID 5 myself. No muss, no fuss once it's set up. Backup happens automagically as you write files to it.

RAID is great to protect against single-drive failures, but it is hardly a backup solution.

It won't do squat if some critical document gets deleted or corrupted (whether by virus, software bug, or human error.)

It also won't help if something happens that takes out multiple the drives at once, like a power supply or IDE controller that goes bad and fries the drives' logic boards. (Don't laugh, it's happened.)
post #118 of 141
Quote:
Originally Posted by shamino View Post

RAID is great to protect against single-drive failures, but it is hardly a backup solution.

It won't do squat if some critical document gets deleted or corrupted (whether by virus, software bug, or human error.)

It also won't help if something happens that takes out multiple the drives at once, like a power supply or IDE controller that goes bad and fries the drives' logic boards. (Don't laugh, it's happened.)

The only reliable methods require tape or other out of machine media, such as CD or DVD. I'm looking foward to Blu-Ray for this reason. 50 GB is good enough for entire large projects, and is re-recordable, so the price of the disk is not really an issue.
post #119 of 141
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

The only reliable methods require tape or other out of machine media, such as CD or DVD. I'm looking foward to Blu-Ray for this reason. 50 GB is good enough for entire large projects, and is re-recordable, so the price of the disk is not really an issue.

Ditto.

I currently use 33G VXA-1 tapes to back up my Mac. This setup cost me $800 for the drive, and costs $50 per tape whenever I have to buy new ones.

BD-RE is already close to being a more economical system at today's prices. Personally, I'm hoping they will have worked out the kinks in those 4-layer BD-RE discs I read about last year. At 100G per disc (assuming good reliability, of course), it would become a phenomenal backup system.
post #120 of 141
...Until some flash memory manufacturer offers a huge leap forward in flash memory capacity, you can forget about Apple offering an all-flash memory video iPod until at least 2010.

The more likely thing happening for the few (in my humble opinion!) are:

1) The iPod Shuffle will increase its flash memory to 2 GB.

2) The iPod nano will no longer be offered in 2 GB version, but we'll see a 4 GB low end, 8 GB midrange and 16 GB top end model.

3) The 5.5G iPod will be replaced by a new model derived from iPhone technology (e.g., full-screen 16:10 aspect ratio display and touchscreen controls), but with either 80 GB or 120 GB hard disk storage.
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