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Vista to bite into Apple's Mac market share

post #1 of 118
Thread Starter 
The launch of Microsoft Corp.'s Windows Vista operating system will have a negative effect on Apple's share of the personal computer market over the next several months, according to checks performed by research and investment firm PiperJaffray.

In a research note released to clients on Wednesday, Sr. Analyst Gene Munster said that while a survey of 50 Best Buy retail stores around the country found that Vista sales have not met expectations, PC sales have still risen as a result of the software roll-out.

"Of the 50 stores we surveyed, 80 percent of Best Buy stores indicated that they have sold less copies of Vista than they had expected," the analyst wrote. But at the same time, he said, 72 percent of the stores saw an increase in Windows PC sales since the software launched.

Munster, who attributes the surge to pent-up demand for PCs with Vista pre-installed, is forecasting for a spike in Windows PC sales during the March calendar quarter, which "could put downward pressure on Mac market share." More specifically, the analyst expects Mac market share to decline from 2.5 percent in December to 2.3 percent in March.

"Historically, from December '04 to March '05, Mac units increased by 2.3 percent and the market share increased by 0.3 percent," he wrote. "During the Intel transition, from December '05 to March '06 Mac units fell by 11.3 percent and market share was flat."

Still, Munster said he remains confident that Apple in 2007 will gain share overall, helped from the industrywide shift toward portables where it currently excels. The analyst also sees potential for Apple to seize the opportunity presented by the launch of Vista to gain mind share with consumers.

"The company views this season of Vista-related computer purchases as an opportunity to sell more Macs," he wrote. "Around the time of the consumer Vista launch, Apple initiated several strategies to attract Vista customers toward the Mac."

For instance, in an email to registered iPod owners with PCs, Apple asked customers: "Upgrading to Vista? Think Mac." The Cupertino-based firm also launched national TV ad campaigns in the US, UK, and Japan criticizing Vista's difficult installation process and frustrating security features. Furthermore, recent reports suggest that Apple's retail stores will also be used in an effort to monetize the Vista opportunity with employees are emphasizing the fact that Macs run both Mac OS X and Windows.

"Although many features of Vista are already available on Apple's current operating system, 10.4 Tiger, Apple is preparing 10.5 Leopard for a Spring release," Munster told clients. "With the release of Leopard, Mac market share will benefit from upward pressure from slight pent-up demand."

The analyst said the release of Leopard will also mark a turning point for investors, who will shift their focus back on the Mac chapter of the Apple story. The launch of Tiger in April 2005 added $100m in revenue to the company's June quarter, he said, with 2 million copies shipping in the first month of availability.

Since Tiger's release, which went on to sell 7 million copies in its first year on the market, the Mac OS X installed base has grown 25 percent from 16 million users to about 20 million users, Munster said. Similarly, he expects that 40 percent of Mac users to upgrade to Leopard in the first year of availability.

"Assuming a late April launch, this would lead to Leopard sales adding $130 million to the June '07 quarter, shipping 2.6 million copies in the first month of availability and adding $456m to [fiscal 2007], shipping about 9 million copies in the first year," he wrote.
post #2 of 118
To be immediately followed by a sharp spike in Mac sales as PC purchasers return said PCs to the store after realise that Vista is crock, and go and buy a Mac instead.
post #3 of 118
Yeah, Vista is a mess. I bet you the "analyast" from PiperJaffray hasn't even used it.
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post #4 of 118
Well I think mac sales will be going up, not down. 10.5 could sell a few more machines too.
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post #5 of 118
Bit of a non-story really. If there's an artificial short term bump in windows pc sales as people satisfy that pent up demand, then of course apple's market share will go down, even if it ships more units itself, unless the proportion of apple's increase is greater than the proportion of pc sales increase. Say there are 100m PCs normally sold Feb-Apr, and they sell 115m; and there were 10m macs sold Feb-Apr last year but this year they sell 11m, then apple's share for the quarter will go down, despite shifting 10% more units. The rest of the report implies this. All it really shows is the importance of long term trends, but I'm sure the stock market will see any drop in market share for a single quarter as a Bad Thing and sell off. Fine, could be a good time to buy

D
post #6 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by daijones View Post

Bit of a non-story really. If there's an artificial short term bump in windows pc sales as people satisfy that pent up demand, then of course apple's market share will go down, even if it ships more units itself, unless the proportion of apple's increase is greater than the proportion of pc sales increase. Say there are 100m PCs normally sold Feb-Apr, and they sell 115m; and there were 10m macs sold Feb-Apr last year but this year they sell 11m, then apple's share for the quarter will go down, despite shifting 10% more units. The rest of the report implies this. All it really shows is the importance of long term trends, but I'm sure the stock market will see any drop in market share for a single quarter as a Bad Thing and sell off. Fine, could be a good time to buy

D

Bingo.

Microsoft hasn't launched a new OS in five years, prospective PC buyers knew for months that Vista was coming in January, and the bump in market share reflects nothing more than a temporary surge (as George Bush would call it) in PC sales.

No one is saying, "Wow, Vista looks nice. I think I'll get that instead of a Mac."

That said, I though Apple would have had more measurable success in improving its market share since the launch of Tiger, and I'm a little disappointed that more people haven't come over to Mac.

Multimedia features will continue to drive the home users to Mac, but I think Apple is missing a lot of business customers by not offering tighter Outlook/Exchange compatibility and the ability to run Windows apps natively on OS X.
post #7 of 118
This is a rough 2-3 month gap between Vista and Leopard. People are ready to upgrade their computers, and Apple are staying "OK, you're buying a computer, think about Mac."

But it is Mac with 10.4. How will a switcher feel paying $129 in 2-3 months for 10.5?

An aggressive counter-Vista move would be for Apple to say "if you buy a new Mac NOW, you get a free upgrade when Leopard is released." Or their typical $19.95 "handling" fee for free upgrades I mean, Apple isn't struggling for money anymore. They can make this sort of move with little risk.
post #8 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thataboy View Post

An aggressive counter-Vista move would be for Apple to say "if you buy a new Mac NOW, you get a free upgrade when Leopard is released." Or their typical $19.95 "handling" fee for free upgrades I mean, Apple isn't struggling for money anymore. They can make this sort of move with little risk.

That is EXACTLY what Apple should be doing, I agree. People won't consider Mac OSX when they can have something that looks like Vista. Vista sucks, but they don't know that. Alot of home users are gullable

-tj
post #9 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by tomozj View Post

Vista sucks, but they don't know that. Alot of home users are gullable


I upgraded to Vista Ultimate and have been using it continuously for a number of days. It doesn't suck, at least no more than XP. It is pretty much the same old Windows with a new coat of paint. So anyone who is already familiar with XP will feel right at home with Vista. That is once they replace their Linksys wireless router ( if it is more than a year or so old it is incompatible), update the firmware in their cable modem, get new drivers for second hard drive, and patch dozens of software applications, then they'll be ready to go. Windows is Windows...Whatever, get a Mac if you like Macs. It's not like Macs don't have a few issues as well. Nothing is perfect.

M

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post #10 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by theapplegenius View Post

Yeah, Vista is a mess. I bet you the "analyast" from PiperJaffray hasn't even used it.

Why do people say stuff like this? Getting hold of a copy of Vista isn't some difficult, it's-more-likely-he's-just-saying-he-did-it, kind of thing. It's out there, available for purchase.

But really, what has that got to do with anything, anyway, whether he's used Vista or not? He isn't talking about whether Mac is better than Windows. He's just telling his investors "Don't lose your water if you see Mac market share nudge downward in the next couple of months. It's not necessarily a sign people prefer Vista. It's just people satisfying pent up curiosity."

Seems like you guys would welcome somebody coming out and reminding people that this kind of thing happens. And he clearly needs to say something like this, because it does happen. Pent-up demand, pent-up curiosity, it's out there. With the enormous user-base of Windows, even a minor bump in sales will make a negative impact in Mac market share. Don't say it won't happen. Be glad if it doesn't, but be realistic.

<soapbox>
I see so many posts on Mac forums criticizing these financial analysts, because their analysis seems tepid or obvious. But why? We've gotten so acclimated to how the regular news services behave, and that's sad. It's backwards, I think. Hardly anybody does "news" any more. They do infotainment and edutainment. They want to hit you with something that catches your attention, stirs up controversy (read: makes you angry at someone other than them), so they can profit. The more they stir you up, the more you keep coming back. As a result, though, we seem to act as though every bit of news pertaining to us is a call to arms. And the only thing we try and do, glancing over it, is to answer the age old question "Are you with us, or against us?" It's in the face of neutral news like this that the inappropriateness of this reaction is best seen. Just remember the difference between being informed and being worked up. But more to the point, when you encounter someone who is just trying to analyze a situation objectively, to inform people without pushing a political agenda (whether it's yours or someone else's), put your weapons down. Check your anger at the door. And just read what the man said and consider it. No "oomph", no "pizzazz"? Sometimes those are artificial additives not always necessary. No controversy? Wonderful. Don't respond by trying to manufacture your own, every... single... time. It may be the knee-jerk response that "infortainment" taught you, but sometimes it's not necessary.
</soapbox>
post #11 of 118
Interesting that PiperJaffray used BestBuy stores to gauge reaction because I was just in one the other day and heard how they (at least one store) were pitching against the Mac. One of the computer salesmen was talking to a customer who expressed interest in looking at a Mac. The Best Buy rep went into full negative mode offering that Mac's are "cute" but finding the power button is hard and it only has one mouse button. Say what? I almost said something but figured it wasn't my place to stick my nose into how he sells their products.
post #12 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Since Tiger's release, which went on to sell 7 million copies in its first year on the market, the Mac OS X installed base has grown 25 percent from 16 million users to about 20 million users, Munster said. Similarly, he expects that 40 percent of Mac users to upgrade to Leopard in the first year of availability.


Interesting numbers. I remember (back in the Jaguar days) when it was often said more people were still on the classic Mac OS than OS X ... and we've all been hearing about the boom in Mac sales that going to Intel brought ... I kind of wonder what the chart looks like exactly. Especially as there are some really complex market conditions to look out for this year.

Vista released: some PC sales lost in 2006 are regained in 2007, indirectly reducing Mac share

Leopard released: some Mac sales are regained (as in those of us who read AI etc. and know about Leopard) but without a major late-Tiger slump before hand.

Nice idea that Apple should pony up Leopard vouchers for early 2007 Macs. But other than goodwill I don't think they'd win much. Leopard has the excitement factor Vista so sadly and obviously lacks.

Who in the world is actually stoked over Vista's release and doesn't work for MS or a PC making OEM?
post #13 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by Keith Courter View Post

Interesting that PiperJaffray used BestBuy stores to gauge reaction because I was just in one the other day and heard how they (at least one store) were pitching against the Mac. One of the computer salesmen was talking to a customer who expressed interest in looking at a Mac. The Best Buy rep went into full negative mode offering that Mac's are "cute" but finding the power button is hard and it only has one mouse button. Say what? I almost said something but figured it wasn't my place to stick my nose into how he sells their products.

No, you're letting your Mac side down!

Only kidding. It's a shame so many jackasses kick around in the world to ruin other people's days. That's precisely what the Apple ads and Apple stores are for.
post #14 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by theapplegenius View Post

Yeah, Vista is a mess. I bet you the "analyast" from PiperJaffray hasn't even used it.

Let's not be silly. Of course Munster has used Vista. And he's probably talked to more people who've used Vista than anyone on this list, with the possible exception of some admins. And he's probably read more about Vista than a lot of us as well.

That's all analysts do, after all (besides drinking heavily on their "working lunches.")

Critique someone's analysis by all means. But don't make foolish comments that are obviously untrue.

Even Dvorak, in his worst, most ill-informed, block-headed anti-Mac rants, couldn't be justly accused of never having used a Mac.

That said, without access to the same info Munster has, this analysis "feels" right. There has been a lot of pent-up "demand." "Demand" isn't actually people marching out in the streets "demanding" their Vista PCs, but simply people who have pushed off buying a PC for a few months because Windows Vista will then come pre-installed.

This is the same thing my wife and I are doing now. We are limping along with an ancient G4 tower, fixing problems, hoping complete failure doesn't occur before several things happen. Specifically, we're waiting for:

1)A Macbook (and hopefully a mini with a 3.5" HDD) with the X3000 integrated graphics.
2) Leopard
3) iLife '07

This is pent-up demand. If it were available today, I'd cancel soccer practice and go pick up 2 Macbooks, or a Macbook and a mini, and probably call in "sick" tomorrow. (If they only have the vanila 3000 IG chipset, we'll get a single MBP instead.)

The sheer volume of people doing this on the Windows side, particularly after so many delays, is bound to have a positive effect on PC sales. However, the reality of Vista's fizzle means that this will be far below MS's expectations. A perfect opportunity for Apple to score big with Leopard later in the year.

My one concern with Leopard is that, with all the "secrecy" and speculation, people will build up Leopard to be more than it is. It's quite likely that Leopard ill be an upgrade in the same vein that Tiger was: more of a meow than a roar. Tiger was essentially Spotlight, plus some new or upgraded apps. Making Safari with RSS support a "feature" of Tiger was lame in the extreme. That's the main reason I'm still happily running Panther (which really had some solid kernel and great UI improvements over Jaguar). $129 for Dashboard? Please.

If Apple really wants to hit a homerun with Leopard, they need to deliver big and provide lots of real value to consumers. A lot of this can be done with .Mac and iLife, but Apple has got to stop being so chintsy.

A year of .Mac free with a purchase of Leopard and/or a Mac (and/or an iPhone) would be a good start.

Up the storage limit to 3+ GBs, and make upgrading storage cheap, like an extra $1 per year per GB (keeps the math simple and the good press would be easily worth it).

Integrate iMovie with YouTube (a no-brainer).

Build MySpace/FaceBook etc, (as well as .Mac) into iWeb.

Integrate iPhoto with Picasa and Flikr.

And I still like my family/friend/organization tree to build into Address Book idea from a while back. It seems to integrate nicely with the whole Web 2.0 thing. And if they play nice with MySpace and FaceBook, then no one will have to compare .Mac to those beheamoths.

And of course I want some better video management capablities in iTunes, where things can be tagged with director, actors, screenwriters, release date, genre, subgenre, etc.

Higher res movies (DVD quality) and commentary tracks and subtitles would also be important to me (but honestly unlikely).

Support for both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD should be built into a (rebranded) iDVD.

Burning your own movies to disk should also be a no-brainer. But they shouldn't tout this so much as a feature as fixing a bug (a legal bug concocted by greedy movie studios and an insane copyright system, not a technical one).

Do this Apple, plus other things that really make people's lives easier, and you've got some great things coming your way.
post #15 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by tomozj View Post

That is EXACTLY what Apple should be doing, I agree. People won't consider Mac OSX when they can have something that looks like Vista.

I don't understand what you mean. Is Leopard really going to change how the system looks? I really don't think OS X will look identical to Vista but both are fairly slick looking.
post #16 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ronbo View Post

They want to hit you with something that catches your attention, stirs up controversy (read: makes you angry at someone other than them), so they can profit. The more they stir you up, the more you keep coming back.

A friend of mine refers to this as "irritainment".
post #17 of 118
Duplicate post. Sorry.
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post #18 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by Keith Courter View Post

Interesting that PiperJaffray used BestBuy stores to gauge reaction because I was just in one the other day and heard how they (at least one store) were pitching against the Mac. One of the computer salesmen was talking to a customer who expressed interest in looking at a Mac. The Best Buy rep went into full negative mode offering that Mac's are "cute" but finding the power button is hard and it only has one mouse button. Say what? I almost said something but figured it wasn't my place to stick my nose into how he sells their products.

I would have said something. Maybe not a full-blown rant. But at least a "That's not true" with a knowing expression.

Then let's see with the rep knows. Dress 'em down, I say.

What he going to do anyway? Yell at you? You're the customer, dammit!

I'm all for exposing ignorance and stupidity whenever I see it.
post #19 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by DCQ View Post

If Apple really wants to hit a homerun with Leopard, they need to deliver big and provide lots of real value to consumers. A lot of this can be done with .Mac and iLife, but Apple has got to stop being so chintsy.

To paraphrase a popular quote, it looks to me like the mantra of Leopard is going to be "Developers! Developers! Developers! Developers!" There are going to be a lot of new APIs, a major revision to the primary Mac development language, and a host of other developer niceties. I suspect you'll see more 10.5-only software in the first half of this year than there's been 10.4-only software since its release, and in the end that's really what SHOULD drive the adoption of an operating system.

On the other hand, I'm one of those people who think the UI integration and per-record recovery features of Time Machine are going to be the most popular features of 10.5. Not all that sexy, and it's not like "backup" is anything new, but the "recovery" functionality of Time Machine is second-to-none.
post #20 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thataboy View Post

This is a rough 2-3 month gap between Vista and Leopard. People are ready to upgrade their computers, and Apple are staying "OK, you're buying a computer, think about Mac."

But it is Mac with 10.4. How will a switcher feel paying $129 in 2-3 months for 10.5?

An aggressive counter-Vista move would be for Apple to say "if you buy a new Mac NOW, you get a free upgrade when Leopard is released." Or their typical $19.95 "handling" fee for free upgrades I mean, Apple isn't struggling for money anymore. They can make this sort of move with little risk.

Agree 100%. I think Apple usually have some such offer in general but not sure if it is 3 months ..
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Long on AAPL so biased. Strong advocate for separation of technology and politics on AI.
Reply
post #21 of 118
Vista sales are one thing. Cutting into Apple's market share is another. The two do not necessarily go together. I'll wager that the eager drones who rushed out to buy the first release of Hasta la Vista would never in a million years buy a Mac, so how does their purchasing decision affect Apple's bottom line? It doesn't.
post #22 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ronbo View Post

Why do people say stuff like this? Getting hold of a copy of Vista isn't some difficult, it's-more-likely-he's-just-saying-he-did-it, kind of thing. It's out there, available for purchase.

Yep. I ran Vista beta 2, RC1 and RC2 during last year and I'm a Mac user at home. Very easy to come by even before its release. But you know what? So many commentators are jackassed enough to pass along a meme instead of do their own research. How many times have I stumbled into Vista v Mac posts by people who have NEVER ran Vista or even Tiger? Too many. There's a lot of people out there with axes to grind, and others just with easy columns to fill. Forgive some of us from reacting based on experience.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ronbo View Post

But really, what has that got to do with anything, anyway, whether he's used Vista or not? He isn't talking about whether Mac is better than Windows. He's just telling his investors "Don't lose your water if you see Mac market share nudge downward in the next couple of months. It's not necessarily a sign people prefer Vista. It's just people satisfying pent up curiosity."

True. Vista means more as a paid Windows upgrade and incentive to buy new hardware than it does as a user experience. This we all know. Shame the jackasses often mix the two ideas.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ronbo View Post

Seems like you guys would welcome somebody coming out and reminding people that this kind of thing happens. And he clearly needs to say something like this, because it does happen. Pent-up demand, pent-up curiosity, it's out there. With the enormous user-base of Windows, even a minor bump in sales will make a negative impact in Mac market share. Don't say it won't happen. Be glad if it doesn't, but be realistic.

I don't know what you expect to find on AppleInsider, but taking the piss out of MS is pretty much a common passtime around here. I hear the reverse is true over at a wide selection of Windows centric places. Perhaps you might want to calm their more outlandish contingent when they make their Ballmer-esque cries along the lines: "Vista is going to f**king Kill Apple! YEEEEAAAH!!11!1!!"

Neither extreme view is true of course. Leave Monkeyboy and Artie MacStrawman to their business.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ronbo View Post

<soapbox>
I see so many posts on Mac forums criticizing these financial analysts, because their analysis seems tepid or obvious. But why? We've gotten so acclimated to how the regular news services behave, and that's sad. It's backwards, I think. Hardly anybody does "news" any more. They do infotainment and edutainment. They want to hit you with something that catches your attention, stirs up controversy (read: makes you angry at someone other than them), so they can profit. The more they stir you up, the more you keep coming back. As a result, though, we seem to act as though every bit of news pertaining to us is a call to arms. And the only thing we try and do, glancing over it, is to answer the age old question "Are you with us, or against us?" It's in the face of neutral news like this that the inappropriateness of this reaction is best seen. Just remember the difference between being informed and being worked up. But more to the point, when you encounter someone who is just trying to analyze a situation objectively, to inform people without pushing a political agenda (whether it's yours or someone else's), put your weapons down. Check your anger at the door. And just read what the man said and consider it. No "oomph", no "pizzazz"? Sometimes those are artificial additives not always necessary. No controversy? Wonderful. Don't respond by trying to manufacture your own, every... single... time. It may be the knee-jerk response that "infortainment" taught you, but sometimes it's not necessary.
</soapbox>

Dude, I was raised on BBC news, have you heard of it? Fake Steve references aside, I feel your pain. But you have the internet now. Find some good sites, good analysis, and good discussion boards and pull the plug from that TV forever. The best thing about free speech is when everyone can make use of it, instead of its name being taken in vain as the lame defense for the latest media attention whore like Jack Thompson or Dvorak!

PS: the analyst we really love around here is Shaw Woo. He's the man! Never miss any of his threads, we get them quite frequently. I sure hope he gets his news from this very forum.
post #23 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post

I upgraded to Vista Ultimate and have been using it continuously for a number of days. It doesn't suck, at least no more than XP. It is pretty much the same old Windows with a new coat of paint. So anyone who is already familiar with XP will feel right at home with Vista. That is once they replace their Linksys wireless router ( if it is more than a year or so old it is incompatible), update the firmware in their cable modem, get new drivers for second hard drive, and patch dozens of software applications, then they'll be ready to go. Windows is Windows...Whatever, get a Mac if you like Macs. It's not like Macs don't have a few issues as well. Nothing is perfect.

M

You're either lying through your teeth or don't know quality when you see it or you are one lucky person.

I spent about 8 hours on vista the other day trying to install vista compatible print drivers. Mind you I work in XP and OS X all day every day. Most of my client side programming came from windows (Win32, MFC, .net). Needless to say I know windows.

I also know I wanted to throw the computer through the window while working on it. This was a brand new computer that shipped with vista. I haven't seen this many errors in windows since windows 95. I'm not even talking about the dreaded confirm this windows. I would try and change the default printer, a dialog would come up with a status bar that would keep moving for 5 minutes. So I'd click cancel. It would still just sit there another 5 minutes. So I'd do a end process. Nope sit there another 5 minutes waiting for that. Except there wasn't any user feed back that end process was clicked. So I'd click it 2-3 times... and then I get bunch of lovely textboxes that ask me if I really want to kill the process 5 minutes later followed by allow or deny. Are you kidding me? Eventually I had to remove the driver and software out of add / remove since I couldn't roll back the driver on the printer. I'm not going to bring up things that have already been brought up by reviewers before me. Vista is a mess and far from final.

I didn't mind the UI changes in Vista. Such as hiding the shutdown / restart out of the power button on the windows bar. Or switching the control panels around (even in classic view). That stuff didn't bother me. Takes you a few seconds to figure it out. I was considering upgrading to Vista.... not gonna happen now. I don't have time to deal with the inconsistencies involved with it. IMO M$ did themselves no favors by releasing it with this many flaws.

 

 

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post #24 of 118
i think OS X, new version for each year hurting a little here, the news of Leopard in Spring may slow down mac sales in the near term, after Leopard release it will eventually back to its original position.

it will be nice OS release every 24 months cycle ...

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Sep '12| Toshiba 14" 1366 x 768! | i5 3rd Gen 6GB| Intel x25-m 120GB SSD | Win 7|  Viewsonic VX2255wmb 22" LCD
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post #25 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thataboy View Post

This is a rough 2-3 month gap between Vista and Leopard. People are ready to upgrade their computers, and Apple are staying "OK, you're buying a computer, think about Mac."

But it is Mac with 10.4. How will a switcher feel paying $129 in 2-3 months for 10.5?

An aggressive counter-Vista move would be for Apple to say "if you buy a new Mac NOW, you get a free upgrade when Leopard is released." Or their typical $19.95 "handling" fee for free upgrades I mean, Apple isn't struggling for money anymore. They can make this sort of move with little risk.

They could also meet the potential switcher half-way in other aspects. Apple's machines are generally not affordable enough for the general user and don't have the expansion or power features the power user is looking for. Apple is placing all their hopes on the premium thin and light notebook segment, a general notebook that is light and portable whose screen might be too small for some, and a belief that somehow people are going to start buying all in ones despite their inherent draw backs when they've been ignoring them for the last ten years. Add to that Apple is the only mainstream computer maker not to include productivity or financial software on their consumer models. That's another $160 a consumer has to pay.
post #26 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ronbo View Post

Why do people say stuff like this? Getting hold of a copy of Vista isn't some difficult, it's-more-likely-he's-just-saying-he-did-it, kind of thing. It's out there, available for purchase.

But really, what has that got to do with anything, anyway, whether he's used Vista or not? He isn't talking about whether Mac is better than Windows. He's just telling his investors "Don't lose your water if you see Mac market share nudge downward in the next couple of months. It's not necessarily a sign people prefer Vista. It's just people satisfying pent up curiosity."

Seems like you guys would welcome somebody coming out and reminding people that this kind of thing happens. And he clearly needs to say something like this, because it does happen. Pent-up demand, pent-up curiosity, it's out there. With the enormous user-base of Windows, even a minor bump in sales will make a negative impact in Mac market share. Don't say it won't happen. Be glad if it doesn't, but be realistic.

<soapbox>
I see so many posts on Mac forums criticizing these financial analysts, because their analysis seems tepid or obvious. But why? We've gotten so acclimated to how the regular news services behave, and that's sad. It's backwards, I think. Hardly anybody does "news" any more. They do infotainment and edutainment. They want to hit you with something that catches your attention, stirs up controversy (read: makes you angry at someone other than them), so they can profit. The more they stir you up, the more you keep coming back. As a result, though, we seem to act as though every bit of news pertaining to us is a call to arms. And the only thing we try and do, glancing over it, is to answer the age old question "Are you with us, or against us?" It's in the face of neutral news like this that the inappropriateness of this reaction is best seen. Just remember the difference between being informed and being worked up. But more to the point, when you encounter someone who is just trying to analyze a situation objectively, to inform people without pushing a political agenda (whether it's yours or someone else's), put your weapons down. Check your anger at the door. And just read what the man said and consider it. No "oomph", no "pizzazz"? Sometimes those are artificial additives not always necessary. No controversy? Wonderful. Don't respond by trying to manufacture your own, every... single... time. It may be the knee-jerk response that "infortainment" taught you, but sometimes it's not necessary.
</soapbox>

If you feel the need to question my usage of Vista, I can safely say that I am very qualified to rip Vista, seeing as I've used every build since before you knew about it. I know what Vista was supposed to be. Vista in its RTM form is like Longhorn with it's balls cut off.

Its very unfortunate.
"Humankind -- despite its artistic pretensions, its sophistication, and its many accomplishments -- owes its existence to a six-inch layer of topsoil and the fact that it rains."
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"Humankind -- despite its artistic pretensions, its sophistication, and its many accomplishments -- owes its existence to a six-inch layer of topsoil and the fact that it rains."
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post #27 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by DCQ View Post

Integrate iPhoto with Picasa and Flikr.

Google have done this already - http://picasa.google.com/web/mac_tools.html

And there is a 3rd party free plugin for Flickr - http://www.macworld.com/weblogs/macg...ugin/index.php

I'm sure most of the rest of the stuff you quoted are due in iLife 07 and I'd be surprised if at least the Google link above doesn't get added what with Google's CEO being on the board of Apple.
post #28 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by BenRoethig View Post

They could also meet the potential switcher half-way in other aspects. Apple's machines are generally not affordable enough for the general user and don't have the expansion or power features the power user is looking for. Apple is placing all their hopes on the premium thin and light notebook segment, a general notebook that is light and portable whose screen might be too small for some, and a belief that somehow people are going to start buying all in ones despite their inherent draw backs when they've been ignoring them for the last ten years. Add to that Apple is the only mainstream computer maker not to include productivity or financial software on their consumer models. That's another $160 a consumer has to pay.

√. I fail to see how some on these boards seem to think Apple has all their bases covered with the current lineup.

 

 

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The reason why they are analysts is because they failed at running businesses.

 

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Quote:
The reason why they are analysts is because they failed at running businesses.

 

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post #29 of 118
I think the affect of the release of Mac OX 10.5 will be minor compared to the release of Abobe CS3. One is a "minor update" (nice to have but...), the other is a reason to replace aging PowerMacs with new Intel-based Macs.
post #30 of 118
Let's be honest.

Vista is a nice upgrade. I'm not particularly happy with the generaly work-flow changes since I'm used to 2K/XP but it is pretty.! :-P Seriously though, there are some significant under the hood changes that I'm actually excited about as an IT guy. The XP file synchronization seems to work as well or better (in some respects) than Tiger's portable home directories though it seems to be less flexible. They really only want you to syncing My Documents.

OTOH, MS just announced a critical security hole in the install process which allows every installer to run as Admin, providing a path for privledge escalation. Vista's off to to a great start.

On the quality of the source:

BestBuy is NOT the place to guage Vista vs. MacOS sales. The BestBuys around me don't stock ANY Apple hardware or software. Not only that, BestBuy employees get bonuses from PC vendors. To my knowledge Apple has never done this in BestBuy. The BB employees are literally bribed to not sell Apple product by the PC vendors [since they are bribed to sell PC hardware].

Finally, Pipper Jaffery is the least reliable of any of the 'Market Analysts'. If I had a quarter for every time they've pulled some BS out of their ass I'd have a new Mac. As soon as I see "Pipper Jafery" I immediately discount whatever is said. This isn't just about Apple or the tech sector either. One of my employees is an avid financial market watcher (and a good amateur investor) and he tells me that Pipper Jaffery is a joke in other sectors too.
post #31 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by emig647 View Post

?. I fail to see how some on these boards seem to think Apple has all their bases covered with the current lineup.

I fail to see how some on these boards seem to think Apple has to cover all the bases.

It's pretty plain by now that they've absolutely no intention of covering every part of computer market.
post #32 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by aegisdesign View Post

I fail to see how some on these boards seem to think Apple has to cover all the bases.

It's pretty plain by now that they've absolutely no intention of covering every part of computer market.

They do NOT need to cover every base. But they have gaping holes in their current lineup. I don't want to get into it in this thread. It's been beaten to death in other threads. And I'm specifically talking about a lower priced tower / consumer machine. There are far too many people that say "how much is a tower?" 2.5k. "no thanks".

 

 

Quote:
The reason why they are analysts is because they failed at running businesses.

 

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Quote:
The reason why they are analysts is because they failed at running businesses.

 

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post #33 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by emig647 View Post

√. I fail to see how some on these boards seem to think Apple has all their bases covered with the current lineup.

Nobody thinks that. A lot of people are smart enough, however, to realize that a company cannot and shouldn't attempt to "cover all bases".
post #34 of 118
On a personal note, I know that the Mac market is going to expand. A friend of mine is a CEO at a very large company. He purchased a Macbook, his first Mac, and is raving about it to anyone who will listen. He has spent most of the last couple of nights on iChat and is amazed. My other friend heard the ravings of the Macbook from the other friend and had me help him purchase one also. His daughter starts college in the fall and will give it to her then, which means he will also have to buy a new mac in the fall for the family. My brother is watching all this and is now on the fence upon his next purchase. These are people who just six months ago would never have entertained the idea of purchasing a mac computer. These people are really scared of moving to a mac because they just dont know anything about them.
Example: My one friend asked me on the day he was buying a mac if he could transfer his email address to the mac and then start receiving his email on the mac. OH MY GOD! This is the type of person Apple has to convince and coddle in upgrading. They stuck with the PC because it was the only thing they are comfortable with. But times are changing.
The one thing that may have changed that is that everyone of my friends have iPods and all their kids have iPods.
post #35 of 118
Yah bad wording on my part. I was trying to emphasize they needed to change their line up a bit.

 

 

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The reason why they are analysts is because they failed at running businesses.

 

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Quote:
The reason why they are analysts is because they failed at running businesses.

 

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post #36 of 118
I'm a hardcore Apple fanboy and I just tried Vista for the first time last night on a friends PC. I was very impressed at how far MS came. It was a solid, beautiful and very functional OS that I could possibly see myself using. I'm guessing it can only get better from here, so I'll have to see if MS messes this up. It truly is a well done OS.
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post #37 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chucker View Post

Nobody thinks that. A lot of people are smart enough, however, to realize that a company cannot and shouldn't attempt to "cover all bases".

Then people should also be smart enough not to be expecting any kind of mass exodus from windows not matter how good the OS is.
post #38 of 118
When will the Boot Camp drivers disk support Vista?
post #39 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by BenRoethig View Post

Then people should also be smart enough not to be expecting any kind of mass exodus from windows not matter how good the OS is.

I am. I neither expect it, nor do I want it. I do not want Apple to grow too much, and neither should anyone else.
post #40 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by jonndailey View Post

I'm a hardcore Apple fanboy and I just tried Vista for the first time last night on a friends PC. I was very impressed at how far MS came. It was a solid, beautiful and very functional OS that I could possibly see myself using. I'm guessing it can only get better from here, so I'll have to see if MS messes this up. It truly is a well done OS.

To be honest, Vista as it is right now doesn't scare me. Give it a couple months to mature and it's Mac-like enough where it might.
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