I am not a fan of analysts, but on this one, despite all the hopes to the contrary being expressed here, the general thurst of Munster's analysis is right on. The reasons are:
1) Price, price, price
: You can get brand new Vista Premium-ready notebooks that are amazingly fully-loaded for the average home/corporate user in the $600 - $800 range. Mac has nothing that comes close. (I know, I know, all the arguments about "no it's not really comparable" or "the Mac mini" or "think about all the goodies such as iLife" etc -- it is all completely irrelevant to a typical home/corporate user, and has been beaten to death in the "Hello I am a Mac/PC" ads).
2) Inertia, inertia, inertia
: Market shares for operating systems will simply track new computer purchases. Here, Apple does have issues -- their share actually fell a bit. The fact that this happened despite XP being on its last legs and OSX being so much better tells me that the average person is not persuaded by Macs in spite of its greater ease of use, elegance, iLife software, magnetic power cords, brighter screens, etc etc. It is also related to where the increases in computer sales are happening worldwide (they are in expremely price-sensitive markets in Asia and Latin America).
: For the average consumer, it is not at all clear that 10.5 represents a great breakthrough over 10.4.8 (or later) as does Vista over XP. (I am a slightly-better-than-average consumer, and frankly, I see no pressing need for switching to 10.5 as soon as it comes out; other users in my family, even less so).
4) iPhone, iPod, iTunes
: Apple (sans "Computer") has become too enamored with the sexier and cooler entertainment/media/telecom business. Corporate attention is beginning to wander away from computers -- there's only so much within a corporate span of attention that can done effectively. Right now, the margins in e/m/t are high for Apple, but all three are brutally competitive businesses. Altho computers are also a brutally competitive business, Apple's software was head-and-shoulders above the rest of the business and that was a major diffferentiating factor. But in media and entertainment, the real "software" is content, not software -- and, Apple has little to offer there.
I hate to sound Cassandra-ish, but ten years from now, January 2007 (iPhone + Vista + "Apple Inc") could be marked as the (slow) beginning of the (hopefully, even slower) end of Macintoshes.