Originally Posted by melgross
I wasn't saying that it would use the Nano chip. Just the opposite. I was saying that the current chips are the size of the Nano chips, and whatever Apple would be using in this first incarnation, that's the size they would be.
There is no certainty that this is the case and the 16Gb parts are set for mass production in March. Folks have assumed that the reason the iPhone is shipping in June is due to the software. It could also be Apple waiting on Samsung.
And even with the launch iPhone volume could be constrained. There's no reason that Apple couldn't be using the new 16Gb part in place of the older 8Gb part. Nor is it impossible there are multiple versions of the iPhone engineering models, some with the older 8Gb part and some with the new 16Gb part in case Samsung has a production hitch.
If Samsung can deliver they can ship the higher density flash with higher capacities.
What you are forgetting is that this has to have been designed, and built already. At least a first test run. After all, Apple has taken them around to be tried. Whatever Apple submits to the FCC for testing must be the device in its final form. If Apple changes the memory in mid stream, even assuming that the price does come down enough at the last minute, they would have to send the phone back for re-testing, and as Jobs has said, it takes months. He's right about that, because my designs for my company had to go through that same procedure, and it took two months.
This has zero to do with your assertion that a) no larger chips are available and b) no price drops can occur in 6 months time.
That the iPhone hardware design is more or less complete is true. Your assertions as to the state of the flash market and slow pricing movement are not. These are seperate issues.
In any case, from a "realism" perspective it is likely that a) Apple has priced in headroom with the announcement because it knows the phone market will have changed by June and b) while it can assume that NAND prices will continue to drop there was no way to tell if it would remain as steep as in 2006. The fact that Toshiba decided after the iPhone announcement to proceed with massive captial investment in NAND production is not something they could reasonably anticipate given the 70% freefall of 2006.
I'm going by realistic production scedules, which you are not. You assume that every new development is immediatly available. It isn't. Even if the pricing was low enough, tnough memory for Apple's needs won't become available until the end of the year.
300K chips/month by April from Toshiba. Samsung has not released predictions.
I won't argue that by then, the prices might squeek down just enough for Apple to be willing to take a look, but not by June.
You make assumptions that have no basis in the real world.
so, Sandisk will begin sampling in March. Production will start ???
Samsung began sampling in January. Mass production is expected in March. While 300K units/month is a smallish number that's just for Toshiba starting April. Samsung will mass hit production earlier then Toshiba/SanDisk.
Is it a certainty that Apple will be using the 16Gb part for the iPhone? No. Of course not. But it is also not impossible as you state. While Samsung isn't in mass production there are plenty of the chips around for folks to build with.
Whether Apple cornered the Samsung 16Gb supply is TBD but its not outrageous to think they have which is why Toshiba decided to push production of their 16 Gb parts because they know there will be demand that Samsung can't fullfill.
Every assumption made has a corporate link attached. SanDisk announced 30-40% price drops. SanDisk stated using SSD vs HDD would be a $600 difference to the consumer. Toshiba has stated production begins in March with 300K units/month by April.
What assumptions are not grounded in reality? That Apple COULD be using the new 16Gb parts? They certainly could and the delay until June could be because they are waiting for Samsung to provide the volume they need. Samsung has been showing that part around since fall of last year and pricing have falled 50% since that timeframe according to SanDisk.
And we're still waiting for that link.
I've got till June. And I note that you glossed over that fast vs slow NAND mistake too. So we have three mistakes you're evading: 1 - there are no chips larger than the 8Gb chips available, 2 - rapid price drops in 6 months are impossible and 3- fast vs slow NAND as opposed to NOR vs NAND.