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Mac sales growth up over 100 percent in January, says firm

post #1 of 42
Thread Starter 
Sales of Apple Inc.'s Mac line of personal computers saw year-over-year growth accelerate over 100 percent during the month of January, with revenue growth rising even further, according to Pacific Crest Securities.

In a brief research note distributed to clients on Thursday, the firm cited NPD market research data which implies that year-over-year growth in Mac unit sales accelerated in January to 101 percent, up from 55 percent in December.

Meanwhile, a rise in the average selling price (ASPs) of Macs is reported to have driven even greater year-over-year dollar sales growth of 108 percent during the same time period, again, up from 55 percent in December.

"Mac ASPs grew 4 percent in January on a year-over-year basis and 1 percent sequentially," wrote analyst Andy Hargreaves. "Apple's ability to maintain stable ASPs is a strong indicator of its brand equity and consumer demand, in our view."

Hargreaves said that sales of Mac notebooks grew 194 percent year-over-year in January with a rising ASP that drove 221 percent revenue growth in the segment.

"January was the third-largest revenue month for Mac notebooks ever," he added.

The analyst noted that over the past eight quarters, the first month of NPD data has been between 7 percent and 9 percent of Apple's quarterly Mac unit sales.

"If this relationship holds in fiscal Q2 (March), Mac sales would significantly exceed our Q2 estimate of 1.495 million units," he said.
post #2 of 42
Good thing I bought AAPL at $65!
BUY! BUY! BUY!
I think this will be the best year ever for Apple, and next year will be even bigger.
post #3 of 42
Some but not all this change in velocity has to be attributed to Vista launching in the month... many users didn't want to buy Windows XP knowing it was going obsolete (and they didn't need it under the tree in the month of Jan like they did in Dec) so they looked at the alternatives and bought Apple (a good choice IMHO).

I would expect in Feb a slight pullback as Vista domininates retail floor presence and takes back a few of these swing customers... I still think 90million iPod owners can't be wrong though and Mac sales are going up long term...
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post #4 of 42
boom!
post #5 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by TednDi View Post

boom!

!BAM!
post #6 of 42
2007 - T Y O A.
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of a rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #7 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireland View Post

2007 - T Y O A.

I've got all her records!
post #8 of 42
can anyone tell me what the largest revenue month ever was for apple notebooks and maybe even apple desktops?
post #9 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by Restalot View Post

Some but not all this change in velocity has to be attributed to Vista launching in the month... many users didn't want to buy Windows XP knowing it was going obsolete (and they didn't need it under the tree in the month of Jan like they did in Dec) so they looked at the alternatives and bought Apple (a good choice IMHO).

I would expect in Feb a slight pullback as Vista domininates retail floor presence and takes back a few of these swing customers... I still think 90million iPod owners can't be wrong though and Mac sales are going up long term...

I don't know how much velocity will really be lost though... I think the key is going to be with how fast Apple can get their act together and release Leopard and the TV; followed by providing a good supply of the iPhone with quick, timely revisions. As well as refreshing their computer product lines and expanding the HD space of their iPods. There is a right time for all of the different refreshes and immeadiately certainly is not the time for them, but they really need to keep things accelerated.

I think that right now Microsoft handed Apple the ball in the game by releasing the bloated, expensive Vista. Sure it has a lot of eye-candy and some great new features, but the new feature set is not THAT impressive. Microsoft has grown to be large, and as many large companies it cannot be as agile as a smaller company, Apple needs to capitalize the opportunity. Apple is NOT the Sony of the computer world, right now it can't do limited production and still hit the same figures, relatively speaking, naturally, as Sony does in the gaming world.

I think that if Apple can get a new server that will support the latest features of the Windows Domains and that has an even more powerful feature set for the Apple computers that would be an incredibly powerful push on their part. Also, if Apple can get the total integration of all devices down soon their 'monopoly' on your living room would be complete. The consumer's dream: all gadgets talking to each other and the information being pulled at HD video stream levels of data transfer to any device in the house. All of this needs to work out of the box. Apple's dream: their products fulfilling this dream of the consumer.
post #10 of 42
The year on year comparison to Jan 2006 makes sense because that was the very height of the Intel transition "Osbourne Effect". The media hyped it up like a big deal, but the only time regular consumers would have been aware of the benefit in waiting for a new Mac was after MWSF06 as those MacBook Pro's in particular took their time to get out.

The month on month comparison is very interesting, if a little optimistic frankly. Could there really have been that mass of consumers holding out for Vista machines and being disappointed? What was the difference between December and January which could essentially overcome Christmas? I don't get it.

Anyway, so long as nothing huge comes from the global markets' recent downturn (can anyone here remember a real recession like me? ), I seriously expect this to be the best Mac sales year again, and the iPhone to be a sensation. If there is a danger for Apple, it's more likely to come from general uneasiness in the global economy and affect us all, than from any competitor from Redmond or elsewhere.

Looking forward to the Spring of Leopard and Santa Rosa Macs. 8)
post #11 of 42
This is good tidings. But, it's still a shock, if it holds up.
post #12 of 42
If you own Apple stock, look out. If past history is any indication, when Apple announces a big whopping increase is sales, far and above any analyst's expectations, the stock will drop like a rock.

Total weirdness I tell ya.
post #13 of 42
Lately, I have noticed a trend among places with less than 500 computers, like graphics houses who have solid Mac users and everyone else on PCs.

With the Intel switch, a number of I.T. types are beginning to look at Macs as the sole source for hardware. It's a lot easier to stock one type of CPU and have it run whatever you want than to invest in Macs and Dells and thereby have "twice" as many spare computers lying around. Options for the Windows crowd usually involve Parallels - and that with XP as the licenses already exist and no one wanting to "invest" in Vista.

Some places are even looking at using Citrix to run Outlook to provide an Exchange client as one doesn't really exist for the Mac (depending on how intensely you use it, Entourage is acceptable).

It's nice to see the sales increases in person!
post #14 of 42
Vista has gotten off to a feeble start not just in sales but in mindshare. (This applies to SoHo, consumers and not enterprise)

a) Vista Got Exactly One halfway decent day of coverage and most of the messaging was middling.

b) Compare that with the insane week blanket coverage of the iphone of a product that 100 people on this Earth has touched!

c) Most of the reviews are lukewarm or as others ahve pointed out, 75% of these reviews allude to OSX either in passing or pointing out how it's copying many features.

d) The core of their "average" customers are people who bought a Pc because it looked cheap. There is no way they are going to spend 40% to 10% of their purchase to upgrade when all the info out there is this info *might* not work, *might* not be for you, requires a clean install, blah, blah, blah and what for? While we might understand Aero, 90% of the consumers look at MS's ads and think - is this like where they promise an underprivilidged kid in an improverished environment will become an astronaut by using XP - is this another 'moon' promise? Contrast that with Apple' Mac PC ads where they don't pretend if you turn on a computer, you will be whisked away to some squiggly line land of the future.

e) These are the people who lived through 114,000 problems on their PC.

f) While they are not quite convinced just yet to switch to a Mac, the keep hearing little bit like it might run XP and Mac ... maybe they might visit an Apple store.

g) How many even hardcore MS believers can tell you exactly what the difference is between the 10-12 Vista versions? MS really blew this also. For a candy bar, a consumer might be willing to spend $9 to try to try each version but when the cheapest is $130? Or do you just throw up your arms, buy a Mac with ONE OS and install XP?

h) After 6 years, $6 billion dollars and with 70,000 employees, they can't figure out how or why it might take up a YEAR to get drivers and graphic card software to work correctly? Hell, even the Zune software wouldn't work correctly initially - what are they dong in REdmond?

This won't affect enterprise sales much as they are mostly buying for Kiosks, as cash registers and as telemarketing stations but for people who have to shell out their own hard earned dollars - MS has already established they are the "unsafe" choice, it's not particulary "stable" and upgrading or even buying Vista is way too confusing - and who knows what peripherals will work with it ...

It took a long time for Apple to lose Mac market share and it won't be easy to get it back but MS is not putting up much of a fight. MS still has the $399 PC buyers in tow since all they are interested are in is how much is the credit card charge today but anything above $499 is now an open game and MS is ripe for the plucking ...
post #15 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by JimDreamworx View Post

Lately, I have noticed a trend among places with less than 500 computers, like graphics houses who have solid Mac users and everyone else on PCs.

With the Intel switch, a number of I.T. types are beginning to look at Macs as the sole source for hardware. It's a lot easier to stock one type of CPU and have it run whatever you want than to invest in Macs and Dells and thereby have "twice" as many spare computers lying around. Options for the Windows crowd usually involve Parallels - and that with XP as the licenses already exist and no one wanting to "invest" in Vista.

Some places are even looking at using Citrix to run Outlook to provide an Exchange client as one doesn't really exist for the Mac (depending on how intensely you use it, Entourage is acceptable).

It's nice to see the sales increases in person!

A college in Pennsylvania just announced that it is getting rid of all PCs and going Mac only.
Primarily for the reason you stated.
post #16 of 42
Mac sales did not surge 100%. Rather, growth in sales increased 100%. So what actually happened is growth in sales increased from 4% or whatever last year to 8% or so. This means that Apple is only shipping 8% more units than last year. This is good news, but not that amazing.

Since the transition to intel last year and the lack of universal pro apos depressed growth of Apple's sales last year, it is not surprising to see things springing back this year.
post #17 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wings View Post

If you own Apple stock, look out. If past history is any indication, when Apple announces a big whopping increase is sales, far and above any analyst's expectations, the stock will drop like a rock.

Total weirdness I tell ya.

I'll hang in there thanks and if it does dip for a while I'll buy more. This puppy has a long way to run, we haven't seen anything yet.
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post #18 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Mozzarella View Post

A college in Pennsylvania just announced that it is getting rid of all PCs and going Mac only.
Primarily for the reason you stated.

The flood gates are opening people
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post #19 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by jbelkin View Post

Vista has gotten off to a feeble start not just in sales but in mindshare.

It took a long time for Apple to lose Mac market share and it won't be easy to get it back but MS is not putting up much of a fight. MS still has the $399 PC buyers in tow since all they are interested are in is how much is the credit card charge today but anything above $499 is now an open game and MS is ripe for the plucking ...

You did say 'plucking' right? ... Just checking
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Long on AAPL so biased. Strong advocate for separation of technology and politics on AI.
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post #20 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by studiomusic View Post

Good thing I bought AAPL at $65!
BUY! BUY! BUY!
I think this will be the best year ever for Apple, and next year will be even bigger.

True, true! I'm just waiting for the "revamped Logic" and new touch-screen displays (a-la iPhone). Just think about mixing music and adjusting faders and knobs with your fingers instead of the mouse. Too cool!

And the iPhone better be able to send/receive faxes. It's a phone and has a derivative of OS X, therefore it has the capability built-in and just needs to be taken advantage of.
post #21 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by crees! View Post

True, true! I'm just waiting for the "revamped Logic" and new touch-screen displays (a-la iPhone). Just think about mixing music and adjusting faders and knobs with your fingers instead of the mouse. Too cool!

And the iPhone better be able to send/receive faxes. It's a phone and has a derivative of OS X, therefore it has the capability built-in and just needs to be taken advantage of.

Still not convinced there will be touch-screen displays or tablets, but I'd definitely take a hard look at one to replace my (wired) Wacom tablet...

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #22 of 42
I think we just saw the last opportunity to buy APPL in the low to mid $80s. I'm holding the majority of my APPL long, bought it when it was around $7 (split adjusted).

I do play with some, buying on dips. Been doing pretty good, my last sell was at $92 (I bought at $76), before that I bought at $51 and sold for $80. So I just love both good news and bad news (specialy when most bad news are FUD ). I bought more AAPL last month but it didn't hit my sell price so I have no cash to buy more I could set my sell price to make a small profit on each share, but then I would need more money than I'm willing to risk.
post #23 of 42
Maybe the worldwide coverage for the iPhone has had a positive knock-on effect for Mac sales?
- it was front page news around the globe...representing $1ms of free advertising...
- perhaps causing 100s of millions of people to suddenly take a renewed interest in Apple in general
- good job Jobs!
post #24 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by JimDreamworx View Post


Lately, I have noticed a trend among places with less than 500 computers, like graphics houses who have solid Mac users and everyone else on PCs. . . . With the Intel switch, a number of I.T. types are beginning to look at Macs as the sole source for hardware.


You make a very interesting point, which I hadn't thought of before. Now if Apple would add a couple new desktop Macs to the product line, something that is more appealing to I.T. types. Several of us Mac users would welcome such new desktop models too.

Regarding AAPL stock, I am very pleased. I too bought at $7 a share, adjusted for the last split. I'd be happier with more, but we gotta buy food too.

post #25 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bert25 View Post

I think we just saw the last opportunity to buy APPL in the low to mid $80s. I'm holding the majority of my APPL long, bought it when it was around $7 (split adjusted).

I do play with some, buying on dips. Been doing pretty good, my last sell was at $92 (I bought at $76), before that I bought at $51 and sold for $80. So I just love both good news and bad news (specialy when most bad news are FUD ). I bought more AAPL last month but it didn't hit my sell price so I have no cash to buy more I could set my sell price to make a small profit on each share, but then I would need more money than I'm willing to risk.

Great buys, Bert. My last batch I bought at $50, but the majority was bought at $11.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #26 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by samurai1999 View Post

Maybe the worldwide coverage for the iPhone has had a positive knock-on effect for Mac sales?
- it was front page news around the globe...representing $1ms of free advertising...
- perhaps causing 100s of millions of people to suddenly take a renewed interest in Apple in general
- good job Jobs!

Don't forget Steve's publicity stunt with the Securities and Exchange commission to keep his name in the papers... How many more Mac's do you think that publicity has sold so far...
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post #27 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by jsg View Post

Mac sales did not surge 100%. Rather, growth in sales increased 100%. So what actually happened is growth in sales increased from 4% or whatever last year to 8% or so. This means that Apple is only shipping 8% more units than last year. This is good news, but not that amazing.

Since the transition to intel last year and the lack of universal pro apos depressed growth of Apple's sales last year, it is not surprising to see things springing back this year.


WOW, a first post that's insightful and adds to the discussion. Thanks!
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post #28 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by jsg View Post


Mac sales did not surge 100%. Rather, growth in sales increased 100%. So what actually happened is growth in sales increased from 4% or whatever last year to 8% or so. This means that Apple is only shipping 8% more units than last year. This is good news, but not that amazing.


You are correct in saying Mac sales did not grow 100 percent, but the article you refer to does not make such a claim. The article says that growth of sales increased 100 percent, which is true. It increased from 4 percent to 8 percent, which is double the growth.


Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


Sales of Apple Inc.'s Mac line of personal computers saw year-over-year growth accelerate over 100 percent during the month of January . . .


My only quibble with the article is the use of the word 'accelerate' to mean increase. But then, I'm a physicist.

post #29 of 42
Unless of course sales actually did increase 100%. In which case... whoah.
post #30 of 42
Unless of course sales actually did increase 100%. In which case... whoah.
post #31 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by jsg View Post

Mac sales did not surge 100%. Rather, growth in sales increased 100%. So what actually happened is growth in sales increased from 4% or whatever last year to 8% or so. This means that Apple is only shipping 8% more units than last year. This is good news, but not that amazing.

Since the transition to intel last year and the lack of universal pro apos depressed growth of Apple's sales last year, it is not surprising to see things springing back this year.

I'm loosing count of the differentials in this article, but:

Quote:
In a brief research note distributed to clients on Thursday, the firm cited NPD market research data which implies that year-over-year growth in Mac unit sales accelerated in January to 101 percent, up from 55 percent in December.

This means that the December 2005 to December 2006 growth was 55%, and the January 2006 to January 2007 growth was 101%
- so the growth has indeed increased (from 55% to 101% growth)
i.e. Apple, in January, shipped 101% more units than last year (i.e. double the number of units)

and the article also say the ASPs are up
- i.e. the unit volume growth is not due to a reduction in the ASPs
- so the revenue growth was higher at 108%
- i.e. the Mac revenue for January was more than double the previous year.

post #32 of 42
I will say we did switch our desktops to Mac pros from dell precisions, price was right and the quality of the case and the inside is so much nicer overall.
post #33 of 42
A friend of mine who works at a 800-student private school was talking about this. The wanted more standardization so that they could replace parts easily and compensate for problems, like using a partition on a server to fill in for a broken HD. But they went with ThinkCentres because of addiction to SmurfOS and because they would have to buy thousands of dollars worth of replacement software.

I think that the latter issue will continue to slow any kind of transition of small places unless they have serious budgets. The amount of money invested in software is tremendous, and places that do not have large budgets will only switch gradually or with the threat of obsolescence. Because of that issue, the big updates (Office 2007, ShinyOS) that are coming out from Microsoft will probably drive some people away. So, even though software entrenchment will continue to be a huge obstacle in switching, in the short term, I bet there'll be increases.

It is quite likely that this same problem will boost Linux installation as well.
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post #34 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by jsg View Post

Mac sales did not surge 100%. Rather, growth in sales increased 100%. So what actually happened is growth in sales increased from 4% or whatever last year to 8% or so. This means that Apple is only shipping 8% more units than last year. This is good news, but not that amazing.

Since the transition to intel last year and the lack of universal pro apos depressed growth of Apple's sales last year, it is not surprising to see things springing back this year.

Uhh... Read on, jsg. It's accurate... most words can have multiple meanings, these articles aren't meant to be legal docs that are 'perfectly' accurate... Or I might be the only one on here who could read them. :P
post #35 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by jsg View Post

Mac sales did not surge 100%. Rather, growth in sales increased 100%. So what actually happened is growth in sales increased from 4% or whatever last year to 8% or so. This means that Apple is only shipping 8% more units than last year. This is good news, but not that amazing.

Since the transition to intel last year and the lack of universal pro apos depressed growth of Apple's sales last year, it is not surprising to see things springing back this year.

THANK YOU for pointing this out......
post #36 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by jsg View Post

Mac sales did not surge 100%. Rather, growth in sales increased 100%. So what actually happened is growth in sales increased from 4% or whatever last year to 8% or so. This means that Apple is only shipping 8% more units than last year. This is good news, but not that amazing.

Since the transition to intel last year and the lack of universal pro apos depressed growth of Apple's sales last year, it is not surprising to see things springing back this year.

Your numbers are off.

2nd quarter '06, Apple shipped 1,112,000 computers.

The new estimate for this 2nd quarter '07, is now for at least 1,495,000 computers to ship. "Significantly" more than that. Perhaps even 1,600,000.

This is not an 8% increase.
post #37 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by blue2kdave View Post

WOW, a first post that's insightful and adds to the discussion. Thanks!

Except that it's wrong.
post #38 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Your numbers are off.

2nd quarter '06, Apple shipped 1,112,000 computers.

The new estimate for this 2nd quarter '07, is now for at least 1,495,000 computers to ship. "Significantly" more than that. Perhaps even 1,600,000.

This is not an 8% increase.

Yep, the wording of the original article may be confusing, but it's definitely saying a 100% increase in SALES for January (year-on-year)

I guess that, if true, and sustained at anything like these levels, this is so astounding that no one can quite believe it!

I guess we shall see in a few weeks when the Q2 results are out!

post #39 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Except that it's wrong.

Well, I guess 2 out of 3 ain't bad!
- especially for around here!
post #40 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Your numbers are off.

2nd quarter '06, Apple shipped 1,112,000 computers.

The new estimate for this 2nd quarter '07, is now for at least 1,495,000 computers to ship. "Significantly" more than that. Perhaps even 1,600,000.

This is not an 8% increase.

Not only is jsg's numbers wrong, he misunderstood the article completely.

The references stated to 4 and 8 % are not sales related. They are in reference to ASP, that is average selling price. Entirely different.

What is not understood in this broker''s releases i.e., "…brief research note(s) (are routinely) distributed to clients…" are only in part, and without the previous releases for comparison, it can be quite confusing. In particular, for the first time reader or certainly when only seeing these client releases as they occassionally post here.

As you rightfully pointed out, "2nd quarter '06, Apple shipped 1,112,000 computers." And when one compares that data to this broker's projections, it is significant.
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