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Apple estimates raised at ThinkEquity ahead of Leopard launch - Page 2

post #41 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by EagerDragon View Post

I just hope that Apple does not do like M$ and remove important features to make a date. I rather wait and get the full effect.

YES - I agree! I'd rather see Leopard released this winter than see Apple strip great features as MS did with Vista. Cuz if they stip them out for a release now it'll be 2+ years before we see Mac OS X 10.6.
post #42 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by EagerDragon View Post

LOL, well I hope they don't have "insider trading info".

I also hope they aren't "surly".
post #43 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macvault View Post

it'll be 2+ years before we see Mac OS X 10.6.

..and we'll be running out of big cats... there's always Lion.

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post #44 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macvault View Post

YES - I agree! I'd rather see Leopard released this winter than see Apple strip great features as MS did with Vista. Cuz if they stip them out for a release now it'll be 2+ years before we see Mac OS X 10.6.

Yup. Figure this years WWDC is Leopard only talk so we will be waiting another year to even hear about Mac OS 10.6 with at least another nine months of development after that!
post #45 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

These guys forcast from what they know now.

They can easily go out conduct market research themselves (as some occasionally do), and can also follow forums such as these for additional "market intelligence." I.e., they can come up with equally bold estimates if the trends justify such estimates.

The problem is, most of them are fairly lazy, and rely on what the management gives them as guidance (and look over each others' shoulders a lot).
post #46 of 110
ThinkEquity needs to do their research lil deeper. Leopard release is no where close for release. I i am not wrong it will be released either a week before WWDC or on WWDC.
post #47 of 110
There you go, issue resolved!
post #48 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

What purpose would be served by Apple having two teams working on the release? One with the *secret features*, and one for developers without it? Do you think Apple needs the expense, and inevitable confusion within their own organization from that?

Well it wouldn't be 2 separate teams. We've heard how Apple has multiple groups working on specific parts of projects and some being totally unaware of others working on different parts of the same thing. Surely there's a breakdown like a Finder group, Spaces/Expose etc, Networking group, Secret Feature group, etc... Besides, API's could be made available without divulging the entire feature. Same goes with the development of iPhone with Cingular and games for the iPod with game devs. I bet for the games they were given a set of parameters and API's to hook into without even knowing what end product they were developing for. That's how Apple keeps it's secrets.
post #49 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

They can easily go out conduct market research themselves (as some occasionally do), and can also follow forums such as these for additional "market intelligence." I.e., they can come up with equally bold estimates if the trends justify such estimates.

The problem is, most of them are fairly lazy, and rely on what the management gives them as guidance (and look over each others' shoulders a lot).

That's exactly what they do. But, they can't make Apple give out information. They can try and follow manufacturing trails, but that's not definite.
post #50 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by crees! View Post

Well it wouldn't be 2 separate teams. We've heard how Apple has multiple groups working on specific parts of projects and some being totally unaware of others working on different parts of the same thing. Surely there's a breakdown like a Finder group, Spaces/Expose etc, Networking group, Secret Feature group, etc... Besides, API's could be made available without divulging the entire feature. Same goes with the development of iPhone with Cingular and games for the iPod with game devs. I bet for the games they were given a set of parameters and API's to hook into without even knowing what end product they were developing for. That's how Apple keeps it's secrets.

That's exactly why Copeland was a failure. They had seperate grouops who didn't communicate with each other. So, every part of the OS worked. But, when they went to combine the parts, they didn't.

I assume that Apple has learned something since then.

It would be interesting if you actually knew how Apple keeps its secrets, rather than just guessing.
post #51 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macvault View Post

Dude, I really hope you are wrong about that. That's one hell of a turd. How do you "know" this turd to be fact? iLife should NOT be considered "features" of an OS. iLife is a group of applications. Great apps, but not something that should be called "Top Secret" features of Leopard. Top Secret features would be more along the lines of ZFS/bootcamp/virtualization/new UI/multitouch/etc.

right, those could be top secret features, but do they necessarily have to be 'built' in? Why not abstract them on top of the OS, that way everything still works but you can 'sell' more features, kind of like the Microsoft plus pack. Maybe not part of iLife, but more of iExtras. That way they can sell you iLife 07, Leopard, and if you want the Leopard iExtras (ZFS, new UI, multitouch) you have to buy Leopard AND the iExtras for $79 more. This way they can get away with charging more for the new OS without 'changing' the original $129 price. ++revenue.
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post #52 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

It would be interesting if you actually knew how Apple keeps its secrets, rather than just guessing.

Yes, but since I don't know I can only guess like the rest of us
post #53 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by crees! View Post

Yes, but since I don't know I can only guess like the rest of us

Of course, except that most of us have our feet on the ground while we do it.
post #54 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Of course, except that most of us have our feet on the ground while we do it.

I guess I was half-way there. Mine were bouncing up and down as I made the post.
post #55 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by sandau View Post

right, those could be top secret features, but do they necessarily have to be 'built' in? Why not abstract them on top of the OS, that way everything still works but you can 'sell' more features, kind of like the Microsoft plus pack. Maybe not part of iLife, but more of iExtras. That way they can sell you iLife 07, Leopard, and if you want the Leopard iExtras (ZFS, new UI, multitouch) you have to buy Leopard AND the iExtras for $79 more. This way they can get away with charging more for the new OS without 'changing' the original $129 price. ++revenue.

Yes! they could call it names like 'home basic', 'business premium' or 'ultimate'!!!!
Way cool dude!
post #56 of 110
buy the rumor sell the news....
post #57 of 110
ThinkEquity seems to be thinking that somehow Leopard will ship before the end of calendar Q1 (late March). Odds are they are either frakking high, or they're trying to start a mini-run on Apple stock. Either way, bah. \

I'm not a bookie, but the Vegas odds seem to be on a late calendar Q2 launch, i.e. final unveiling/ship date announced at WWDC (June 11-15), actually shipping in late June. And that's fine, its not like Vista will have all the kinks even remotely worked out by then.

As others have said, either a very stable Leopard or none at all. We don't need to half-ass it the way Microsoft has done so many times in the past.

If Apple surprises us all by releasing Leopard both in March AND stable, then I will happily be wrong. But it just seems unlikely. The old adage seems inescapable... do you want it fast, or do you want it good?

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post #58 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

But, they can't make Apple give out information. They can try and follow manufacturing trails, but that's not definite.

Hmmm.... I didn't know that Apple was a company that had sworn off the (fairly common) practice of earnings guidance (unlike thousands of companies) -- perhaps you know more about this.

I would be surprised if they did not do it (altho, some companies such as Coca Cola have explicitly said "no" to the practice of earnings guidance).
post #59 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

If Apple surprises us all by releasing Leopard both in March AND stable, then I will happily be wrong. But it just seems unlikely. The old adage seems inescapable... do you want it fast, or do you want it good?

.

Tiger wasn't fast or good until a couple 'service packs' later, so why should they start now?
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post #60 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by dutch pear View Post

Yes! they could call it names like 'home basic', 'business premium' or 'ultimate'!!!!
Way cool dude!

we'll revisit this after the first buggy release.
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post #61 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by sandau View Post

Tiger wasn't fast or good until a couple 'service packs' later, so why should they start now?

Actually, I found Tiger (10.4) to be both fast and good from the get-go. I didn't have super hardware to run it on either.

Now 10.0 and 10.1 were a different story.... they were slooooooooow. \

Perhaps you were referring not to Tiger, but to OS X in general? If so, you'd be right, it wasn't acceptably fast until Jaguar (10.2).


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post #62 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

Actually, I found Tiger to be both fast and good from the get-go. I didn't have super hardware to run it on either.

Me too. Upgrading to Tiger over Panther noticeably sped up my system.
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post #63 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Me too. Upgrading to Tiger over Panther noticeably sped up my system.

not for me, panther was much faster, until a few 'fixes' later. i expect the same with the new OS.
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post #64 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Hmmm.... I didn't know that Apple was a company that had sworn off the (fairly common) practice of earnings guidance (unlike thousands of companies) -- perhaps you know more about this.

I would be surprised if they did not do it (altho, some companies such as Coca Cola have explicitly said "no" to the practice of earnings guidance).

If you listen to the analysts call the day of the earnings release, you will see that Apple says nothing about future products, shipping dates, or the breakdown of current product sales, other than broad category division, such as desktops, laptops, iPods, software, etc., which is what we ware talking about, when we were talking about a years total sales.

Announcing the iPhone and the ATv well in advance was unusual for Apple, and they even took a beating for it, because it was so unusual.

The analysts are on their own. They have to do their own digging. If you read their reports, you will see that they refer to parts streams, re-aligned assembly lines, drying channel, parts purchases, etc.

That's the way they come up with their estimates. As each analyst has his, or her, own sources, their reports often don't match too closely, though sometimes they do.

We just happily guess according to what we want to see happen. We can do that. we don't get paid for it.
post #65 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

ThinkEquity Partners LCC on Monday joined a chorus of Wall Street firms predicting that Apple Inc. will be ready to deliver its next-generation Leopard operating system to market "in the next few weeks."
............
"We like how Vista has established a 'hardware upgrade mindset' among PC users, and we expect Apple CPU unit shipments to benefit from Vista tailwinds, the release of Leopard, and a CS3 pro catalyst," the analyst told clients. "Meanwhile, Apple's strong retail store presence; all the buzz around the iPhone, the hugely successful iPod/iTunes combo; and Apple's popular Mac ad campaign are likely to combine into a 'maybe I should buy a Mac' decision."
..............

With regard to the so-called "analysts" comments in bold above, I just want to say, a big hunking
TOLD YOU SO.
I did have different predictions on Leopard/Mac releases though.


Here's what I wrote, oh, a few days ago before all this came out:
http://forums.appleinsider.com/showthread.php?p=1054052


Since some people are missing Shaw Wu, I'll try my best here.

"Despite the Vista marketing machine well underway, Apple, Inc. has recently decided to join the fray. Previously, Apple's "Get A Mac" campaign focused on a generic "PC vs. Mac" campaign, with only the latest ad in the series poking fun at Vista specifically.

Apple has decided to take the battle to Microsoft and a raft of PC manufacturers touting Vista and "Vista Ready" PCs. Recently, the Apple Online Store's header graphic was changed to say "Go beyond Vista. It's time to get a mac... Skip the hassles and choose the ultimate PC upgrade". Clicking on the link brings the user to a "Choose a Mac" page that mentions "Why upgrade to Vista when you can upgrade past it? Instead of installation nightmares and other hassles, you'll get a gorgeous Mac with the latest Intel chips, bundled software that you'll actually use, and an operating system that's still years ahead".

With no immediate inklings of new Macs or the release of the upcoming operating system "Leopard", long expected to be the direct competitor to Vista, this seems to be a startling yet expected move. Apple is attempting to latch on to the excitement-coupled-with-confusion Vista PC upgrade cycle by offering an alternative to Vista.

It argues that instead of a new gloss over what is still Windows, consumers get a completely different operating system. Instead of "installation nightmares", consumers can purchase a Mac that is ready to go, with "bundled software you'll actually use", hinting that Vista's Windows Calendar, Contacts, Mail, Meeting Space, Photo Gallery and other bundled programs do not stand up well to Mac-bundled alternatives or other PC software such as Google's free Picasa photo organizer.

Some industry observers were puzzled that alongside the juggernaut of Microsoft's Vista launches, Apple, Inc. decided instead to reveal and tout its almost half-a-year-away "iPhone". Now that the Vista dust has begun to settle though, it appears Apple is ready to take Vista head-on, not with new hardware or software, but with their current product line-up and the almost 2-year-old "Tiger" operating system.

Given these bold moves, we maintain a "outperform" rating on Apple, Inc. stock with a price target of $120. Expected in Spring and Summer of 2007, new Mac and iPod launches and the release of the brand new "Leopard" operating system should bolster Mac sales and add lots more ammunition to Apple's assault on Vista and the PC market. Not to mention the upcoming release of Adobe/Macromedia's CS3 production suite for creative professionals around April, which will be the first major non-Apple-branded release of creative production software that takes full advantage of the new Mac-Intel platform. We believe Apple's continued justified confidence will contribute to a stellar financial 2007 for the company."




post #66 of 110
If only these skillz would actually get me a fracking real job.
post #67 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

I'm not looking forward to an early release.

This release is too important to Apple. With the lack of progress so far that we are seeing, an early release will have to be buggy.

If this release is buggy, a lot of negative publicity will follow, because of its juxtaposition to Vista, that it hasn't gotten before.

Apple must attempt to release 10.5 in as pristine a fashion as possible. I would much rather wait until the Dev Conf.

I don't understand the eagerness. What's a couple of months going to do to someone's life? Whoever buys this will have it for two more years.

I would have to say I'm with you on this.

Personally I want the people waiting in the wings for Adobe|Macromedia CS3 to have the best MacIntel transition possible.

Coupled with new MacPro hardware, other mid-April NAB announcements... I want the creative pros back into Mac. Especially the web designers that jumped ship to have smoother faster Flash/Dreamweaver/Potatochop workflows.

The key is: 10.4.9 with a lot of stability and bugs worked out
.

Throw in CS3, new Macs, AND LEOPARD AS WELL, and it's a market strategy that relies too much on the early-adopter-lets-try-this-out crowd and not enough on the core lets-get-back[or.buy.more]-into-Macs-like-white-on-rice!!
post #68 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by bdkennedy1 View Post

I'm still sticking to my guns that Apple is going fake everyone out and release Leopard in the next few weeks.

Agree.
post #69 of 110
Looks like my local reseller is starting to take pre-order bookings for Leopard. Price is preliminarily set at 1195kr which is approx. $119.50. (seems too cheap in my books). Nice of them to include a free 512mb memory stick as an incentive to pre-book.

Too bad they only make the offer for the Swedish version and not for the English version which would make me jump on the offer. While I can speak Swedish, I prefer the English version. The text also states that the offer only applies to shipped versions of Leopard and does not apply to thier store's versions. (silly! IMHO).

Here's the link for those interested:

http://www.macoteket.se/product_list...uct_id=1131383
post #70 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by bdkennedy1 View Post

I'm still sticking to my guns that Apple is going fake everyone out and release Leopard in the next few weeks.

Why Apple would play hide and seek with the developers? It is not anymore the 80's nor the 90's with minimal third party software available (compared to what we have today).
post #71 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by donebylee View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross

What is the point of that? So, we will have to wait 6 months to a year to see these new "killer" features working in major programs? We will have rez independence with no programs able to take advantage of it?

Other features as well?

How embarrassing! And how angry these developers will be. And rightly so!

Again, yes.

Keep it simple. No grand conspiracies. No double blind builds that screw software developers.

It's just not ready yet.

No matter how much we want it.

Ah, the voice of reason. But perhaps Apple does not like it.
post #72 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post

..and we'll be running out of big cats... there's always Lion.

Lion, Lynx, Cougar 8)

...Sabretooth... (extinct though. "I'm a Mac, and my OS is extinct..." ...not good)...

...Also TasmanianTiger ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tasmanian_tiger ) -
not such a big cat, more a wolf/dog actually perhaps(?)...

10.6 Lynx

10.7 Cougar

maybe grand ending in...
10.8 Lion [The King of The Jungle]

and............. voila.

What comes after OSX ?
I think they'll go back to "Mac OS". Or just "Mac".
Maybe iSteve will finally get his wish of the hardware and software
being indistinguishable from each other.
post #73 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

I would have to say I'm with you on this.

Personally I want the people waiting in the wings for Adobe|Macromedia CS3 to have the best MacIntel transition possible.

Coupled with new MacPro hardware, other mid-April NAB announcements... I want the creative pros back into Mac. Especially the web designers that jumped ship to have smoother faster Flash/Dreamweaver/Potatochop workflows.

The key is: 10.4.9 with a lot of stability and bugs worked out
.

Throw in CS3, new Macs, AND LEOPARD AS WELL, and it's a market strategy that relies too much on the early-adopter-lets-try-this-out crowd and not enough on the core lets-get-back[or.buy.more]-into-Macs-like-white-on-rice!!

Ahhh, you're singing my song. Give me a refreshed Mac Pro and CS3 and it's MacIntel for me.

And 10.4.9 will do nicely thank you.

Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

...Sabretooth... (extinct though. "I'm a Mac, and my OS is extinct..." ...not good)...

...Also TasmanianTiger ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tasmanian_tiger ) -
not such a big cat, more a wolf/dog actually perhaps(?)...

Ummm, aren't Tasmanian Tigers extinct as well...unless you've been drinking and are driving home late at night on a lonely stretch of road that is....
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post #74 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

Lion, Lynx, Cougar 8)

...Sabretooth... (extinct though. "I'm a Mac, and my OS is extinct..." ...not good)...

...Also TasmanianTiger ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tasmanian_tiger ) -
not such a big cat, more a wolf/dog actually perhaps(?)...

10.6 Lynx

10.7 Cougar

maybe grand ending in...
10.8 Lion [The King of The Jungle]

and............. voila.

What comes after OSX ?
I think they'll go back to "Mac OS". Or just "Mac".
Maybe iSteve will finally get his wish of the hardware and software
being indistinguishable from each other.

When Jobs first announced X, he said that it would be Apple's operating system for the next 15 years.

If we take 2000 as a baseline (just for the numbers), then it's good until 2015. Add another year or so, because it didn't actually come out in 2000, and you get about 2016.

If we assume that Apple will now intro new versions every 24 months or so, that gets us 10.9 just about 2015.

Assuming they have been thinking about its successor already, they have plenty of time to work on it. After 10.9 in 2015 comes OS ? in 2017 perhaps.
post #75 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

When Jobs first announced X, he said that it would be Apple's operating system for the next 15 years.

If we take 2000 as a baseline (just for the numbers), then it's good until 2015. Add another year or so, because it didn't actually come out in 2000, and you get about 2016.

If we assume that Apple will now intro new versions every 24 months or so, that gets us 10.9 just about 2015.

Assuming they have been thinking about its successor already, they have plenty of time to work on it. After 10.9 in 2015 comes OS ? in 2017 perhaps.

He actually said 10 years if you look at his first Aqua demo, which would point to around 2010-2011.
post #76 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by sandau View Post

not for me, panther was much faster, until a few 'fixes' later. i expect the same with the new OS.

You're the only person I've ever heard of for whom Panther was faster than Tiger. My guess is you were the victim of a bug.

Also, in that case, its not really fair to compare Tiger patches to service packs, as you previously did. OS X patches (i.e. going from 10.4 to 10.4.1, for example) come out a lot more quickly than most service packs, which usually take a year or so.



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post #77 of 110
Apple aren't necessarily "faking out" the devs - all the stuff you'll need as a developer in Leopard is there. I think the bugs are a red herring, and the stuff that's of interest to end users is not only being omitted from devprevs, but it's good to go.
post #78 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by donebylee View Post

Apple should be running an ad campaign that says: [indent]"Hey, Microsoft is making you buy a new PC just to get a new pretty look. Why not buy a new Mac and get more? And when our new OSX is ready, no new Mac just a $129 upgrade and you're there. Wanna see what we're talking about?".

I suspect it will cost more. Given that it will likely break iLife 06, upgrading to iLife 07 will be mandatory, and could be considered part of the upgrade cost.
post #79 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by donebylee View Post

Ahhh, you're singing my song. Give me a refreshed Mac Pro and CS3 and it's MacIntel for me. And 10.4.9 will do nicely thank you.

8)

Quote:
Originally Posted by donebylee

Ummm, aren't Tasmanian Tigers extinct as well...unless you've been drinking and are driving home late at night on a lonely stretch of road that is....

Yup, extinct, except for various "spottings" and blurry pictures ala LochNess, BigFoot, etc.
And a possible conspiracy by the Australian-American Secret Government thrown in.
post #80 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by gregmightdothat View Post

He actually said 10 years if you look at his first Aqua demo, which would point to around 2010-2011.

Really? I remember a 15 year number in a speech in late 1999.
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